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Everyone is waiting for Friday’s big inflation report. Here’s what to expect

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A shopper looks at produce at a grocery store in West Milton, Ohio, US, on Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025.

Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Friday release of September’s consumer price index report is pretty much the only game in town this month for a Wall Street that is hungry for data, raising the chances for it to be a market-moving event.

While the actual numbers are expecting to land about where they’ve been in recent months, the dearth of official economic reports, thanks to the government shutdown, means even a slight deviation could cause an outsized impact.

“Because we haven’t gotten any government data in the recent past, I think all of the market’s focus and all of the market’s attention is going to be directed onto this one report,” said Troy Ludtka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “This is going to be the report to end all reports.”

As far as the Wall Street consensus goes, though, the CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics looks to be more of the same.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the monthly all-items reading to increase by 0.4%, the same as a month ago, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.1%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the August level. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is projected to show a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual level, both the same as in August. The yearly rate would be the highest since January.

What the Street will be looking for is any deviation in the readings showing that inflation is running hotter or colder than anticipated. The focus also will be on the details showing what impact President Donald Trump’s tariffs are having on prices.

The report, which was supposed to be released Oct. 15, will be the last significant economic reading before the Fed’s policy meeting that concludes Wednesday. The BLS called workers back because it uses CPI as a benchmark for Social Security cost of living adjustments.

Lack of clarity

Goldman Sachs economists expect little change on auto prices, a boost on car insurance and a decline in airfare. On the tariff issue, the firm said in a note that it expects “upward pressure” on categories such as communication, household furnishings and recreation, but an addition of just 0.07 percentage point to the core inflation figure.

However, data in general is a black box with so much of the government shut down, raising some questions over the reliability of the CPI.

“We don’t have full clear clarity with the lack of important data points that the market depends on due to the government shutdown,” said Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “So that adds to the uncertainty a little bit more.”

Indeed, investors have been on tenterhooks lately, pushing major stock market averages to around record territory despite continued fluctuation in day-to-day moves.

Geopolitical uncertainty is at the root of concerns, with the ever-shifting tariff landscape injecting worry that higher prices could slow what has been an otherwise surprisingly strong pace of economic growth. The CPI report, despite concerns about how clean the data will be due to shutdown-related disruptions, should help answer at least some of those questions.

That applies both to markets and the Federal Reserve, which holds a policy meeting next week at which officials are widely expected to approve another quarter percentage point interest rate cut.

“In terms of market impact, it would take a meaningful surprise to the upside for the market to change its mind about an additional interest rate cut,” said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank.

Outside of the trade war’s frequent gyrations, markets have been boosted by another strong earnings season. Prior to the lockdown, economic data also had shown a surprisingly resilient economy, with gross domestic product tracking close to 4% for the third quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed.

While it would take something of consequent to shake that narrative, a surprise from CPI might just be the ticket.

“I would expect volatility if the number comes in higher than expected,” said Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors. “I would view that as a buying opportunity as the economy is strong, the Fed is beginning a cutting cycle, EPS are growing double digits and the fourth quarter is seasonally the strongest quarter of the year.”

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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