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Fed Governor Miran wants a half-point cut this month, while Waller backs another quarter-point move

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10 months ago

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Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran speaks with CNBC during the Invest i America Forum on Oct. 15, 2025.

CNBC

Federal Reserve Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller provided conflicting views on how quickly the central bank should lower interest rates in the face of a weakening labor market and heightened geopolitical tensions.

Miran said Thursday he plans to repeat his push for a half-percentage-point interest rate cut when the central bank meets later this month.

In a speech delivered in New York, Waller advocated a quarter-percentage-point reduction at the meeting later this month, a position that appears more in line with the Fed consensus.

Taken together and combined with recent statements from other monetary policymakers, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee looks to be on a clear path to more reductions, the extent to which remains unclear.

“Based on all of the data we have on the labor market, I believe that the FOMC should reduce the policy rate another 25 basis points at our meeting that concludes Oct. 29,” Waller told the Council on Foreign Relations. “But beyond that point, I will be looking for how the solid GDP data reconcile with the softening labor market.”

Fed officials have been operating in a quandary between indications of a standstill in hiring against nagging inflation pressures exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Waller has been among officials advocating an approach in which the Fed looks through the tariffs as one-off price increases that will not provide lasting inflationary pressures.

Waller pointed to two scenarios — one in which gross domestic product continues its upward climb and the labor market improves, in which case the Fed would need a more cautious approach on cutting, and the other in which the economic picture darkens and additional rate cuts on the order of up to 1.25 percentage points are necessary.

“What I would want to avoid is rekindling inflationary pressure by moving too quickly and squandering the significant progress we have made taming inflation,” he said. “The labor market has been sending some clear warnings lately, and we should be ready to act if those warnings are validated by what we learn in the coming weeks and months.”

‘It should be 50’

Both Waller and Miran were appointed by President Donald Trump. Waller is considered one of the final front-runners to replace Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May 2026.

In separate remarks, Miran conceded that he still expects his colleagues to vote for another quarter-point reduction even as he thinks current circumstances warrant a more aggressive approach.

“My view is that it should be 50” basis points, he said during a Fox Business interview. “However, I expect it to be an additional 25 and I think that we’re probably set up for three 25-basis-point cuts this year, for a total of 75 basis points this year.”

One basis point equals 0.01%, so 50 would be the equivalent of half a percentage point. Miran pushed for a half-point cut at the September meeting but was outvoted 11-1 on the Federal Open Market Committee.

Earlier this week, Powell indicated that a softening labor market kept the door open to additional easing. Participants at the September meeting indicated the likelihood of two more moves coming this year, though Miran favored an approach that would lop a total 1.25 percentage points off the fed funds rate by the end of 2025.

A government shutdown that has blocked the issuance of most key data points has made the Fed’s job tougher.

“It would be really helpful to have the economic data in order to be able to make the decisions we need to make,” Miran said. “Certainly, we would want to be inspecting the economy for signs of for signs of moves lower in inflation, for signs of changes in the job market. But without those data, we still have to make a decision anyway, and so we’ll have to rely upon our forecasts for doing so.”

Miran said economic growth largely looks “OK for most of this year” though he is concerned about the recent acceleration in tensions between the U.S. and China, which he sees as boosting the case for big rate cuts.

The FOMC next meets Oct. 28-29, with markets pricing in a nearly 100% of a quarter-point reduction.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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5 days ago

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August 9, 2026

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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Venture Capital and Startup Valuations in 2026: Focus on Unit Economics and Sustainable Growth

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1 week ago

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August 5, 2026

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The global venture capital (VC) ecosystem is operating under a disciplined investment framework in 2026. Following years of valuation adjustments and shifting liquidity environments, venture capital firms and private equity investors are prioritizing proven unit economics, positive cash flow pathways, and capital efficiency over rapid, unconstrained user acquisition.

The Shift Toward Disciplined Startup Valuations
Early-stage and growth-stage startup valuations have stabilized at sustainable historical averages. Venture capital partners are conducting rigorous due diligence processes before deploying capital, scrutinizing gross margins, customer acquisition costs (CAC), net revenue retention (NRR), and lifetime value (LTV) metrics.

While total capital deployed remains robust, seed and Series A funding rounds are taking longer to finalize. Founders are expected to demonstrate clear product-market fit and defensible intellectual property rather than relying on top-line revenue projections unsupported by strong underlying economics.

M&A Activity and Liquidity Solutions
The market for venture-backed exits is seeing renewed momentum through strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and secondary market liquidity facilities. Established corporate enterprises are acquiring high-performing technology startups to integrate proprietary artificial intelligence models and specialized software solutions into their product ecosystems.

Simultaneously, secondary market transactions have become an essential liquidity mechanism for early employees and institutional investors. Specialized secondary funds are purchasing pre-IPO shares at discounted valuations, providing liquidity opportunities while companies remain private for longer durations.

Sector Allocation: Deep Tech, Clean Energy, and Enterprise Automation
Venture capital investment is heavily concentrated in deep technology and capital-intensive engineering sectors. High-growth investment themes include:
– Next-Generation Semiconductors: Hardware startups designing specialized AI processors and energy-efficient microchip architectures.
– Clean Technology: Battery chemistry innovations, carbon capture solutions, and grid-scale energy storage startups.
– Enterprise Process Automation: Software platforms that automate complex workflows in healthcare, financial services, and industrial logistics.

Key Insights for Entrepreneurs and Investors
1. Prioritize Capital Efficiency: Startups focused on achieving operational profitability receive higher valuation premiums from institutional investors.
2. Strategic Exit Planning: Corporate M&A is serving as a primary exit route for venture-backed startups navigating prolonged IPO windows.
3. Focus on High-Moat Technologies: Deep tech and proprietary software architectures are securing the majority of growth-stage capital allocations.

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The Evolution of Digital Payments: Cross-Border Settlement and Central Bank Digital Currencies in 2026

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1 week ago

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August 5, 2026

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The infrastructure supporting global commerce is undergoing a major technological upgrade as real-time digital payment rails, cross-border settlement solutions, and Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot programs achieve widespread commercial adoption. Financial institutions and fintech developers are reimagining payment processing to eliminate friction, lower transaction fees, and accelerate settlement speed.

Transforming Cross-Border Settlement Infrastructure
For decades, international corporate payments relied on legacy correspondent banking networks characterized by multi-day settlement delays, opaque fee structures, and high foreign exchange markups. In 2026, modern cross-border payment networks are enabling near-instantaneous settlement for international trade transactions.

Financial technology platforms are leveraging distributed ledger technology and real-time gross settlement (RTGS) interconnections to settle transactions in seconds. International trade participants benefit from reduced working capital requirements and minimized foreign exchange volatility risks during cross-border transfers.

Commercial Expansion of Central Bank Digital Currencies
Central banks representing major global economies are advancing CBDC initiatives from research phases into active commercial deployment. Wholesale CBDCs—designed specifically for interbank settlement and financial institution clearing—are demonstrating substantial efficiency gains in domestic and international transactions.

At the retail level, several nations have introduced public digital currency options alongside existing commercial banking networks. These sovereign digital payment channels aim to expand financial inclusion, lower consumer transaction fees, and improve the efficiency of government-to-citizen financial disbursements.

Open Banking and Embedded Finance Ecosystems
Alongside settlement infrastructure upgrades, open banking regulations and embedded finance frameworks are transforming merchant-consumer interactions. Commercial businesses across retail, travel, and business-to-business (B2B) services are integrating seamless payment APIs directly into their customer software interfaces.

Through open banking frameworks, consumers can initiate secure bank-to-bank payments without relying on traditional credit card networks, significantly reducing merchant processing fees. Integrated Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) options and point-of-sale credit facilities continue to expand, driving higher conversion rates for digital commerce platforms.

Strategic Financial Takeaways
1. Treasury Optimization: Corporate treasurers should leverage instant cross-border payment platforms to minimize liquidity buffers and foreign exchange exposure.
2. CBDC Integration: Financial institutions must prepare internal core banking systems to interface with emerging wholesale CBDC payment rails.
3. Merchant Fee Reduction: Enterprise merchants can lower payment processing overhead by adopting account-to-account (A2A) open banking checkout solutions.

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