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Fed officials still foresee rate cut this year, despite war impacts, minutes show

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve on March 18, 2026 in Washington, DC.

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

Federal Reserve officials at their March meeting still expected to lower interest rates this year, even with a high level of uncertainty from the Iran war and tariffs, according to minutes released Wednesday.

Most of the participants said the war could result in the need for easier monetary policy if rising gas prices hit the labor market and consumer wallets.

Policymakers said they would need to remain “nimble” as they weighed the impact the war had on inflation, which continued to hold above the Fed’s target, and hiring, which has been mostly flat over the past year.

“Many participants judged that, in time, it would likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations,” the minutes stated.

The consensus anticipated one cut this year, unchanged from the last update in December.

The summary further noted caution over “a further softening in labor market conditions, which could warrant additional rate cuts, as substantially higher oil prices could reduce households’ purchasing power, tighten financial conditions, and reduce growth abroad.”

Ultimately, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate targeted in a range between 3.5%-3.75%.

Possible hike?

The consensus was to keep rates steady as they observed conditions unfold, with officials also expressing concern that the Middle East hostilities could result in sustained inflation that could require rate hikes.

“Most participants commented that it was too early to know how developments in the Middle East would affect the U.S. economy and judged it prudent to continue to monitor the situation and assess the implications for the appropriate stance of monetary policy,” the minutes stated.

The March 17-18 meeting came just a weeks after the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran that triggered a surge in energy costs and renewed fears of a spike in inflation. A cease-fire announced Tuesday evening led to a sharp drop in oil, though the durability of the agreement is still highly in question.

In assessing conditions so far, meeting participants said they still expected inflation to continue moving towards the Fed’s 2% target, despite the tumult the war caused. They noted that tariffs remain a threat, though most see the impact of the duties as temporary when it comes to computing inflation.

Chair Jerome Powell said in a recent public appearance that raising rates now to stave off an inflation spike could have negative longer-term effects given the lagged impact of Fed rate moves.

At the same time, officials expressed concern about the labor market, which has been creating enough jobs to keep the unemployment rate steady. However, job growth has come almost exclusive from health care-related sectors, raising concerns about stability and potential for growth.

“The vast majority of participants judged that risks to the employment side of the mandate were skewed to the downside,” the minutes stated. “In particular, many participants cautioned that, in the current situation of low rates of net job creation, labor market conditions appeared vulnerable to adverse shocks.”

Markets largely expect the Fed to remain on hold through the rest of the year. However, the cease-fire led traders to raise the odds for a potential cut.
 
Broadly speaking, the economy has showed signs of slowing, causing some on Wall Street to raise their expectations for a recession.
 
Gross domestic product rose at just a 0.7% pace in the fourth quarter of 2025 and is on track for just a 1.3% growth rate in the first quarter of 2026.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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Venture Capital and Startup Valuations in 2026: Focus on Unit Economics and Sustainable Growth

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The global venture capital (VC) ecosystem is operating under a disciplined investment framework in 2026. Following years of valuation adjustments and shifting liquidity environments, venture capital firms and private equity investors are prioritizing proven unit economics, positive cash flow pathways, and capital efficiency over rapid, unconstrained user acquisition.

The Shift Toward Disciplined Startup Valuations
Early-stage and growth-stage startup valuations have stabilized at sustainable historical averages. Venture capital partners are conducting rigorous due diligence processes before deploying capital, scrutinizing gross margins, customer acquisition costs (CAC), net revenue retention (NRR), and lifetime value (LTV) metrics.

While total capital deployed remains robust, seed and Series A funding rounds are taking longer to finalize. Founders are expected to demonstrate clear product-market fit and defensible intellectual property rather than relying on top-line revenue projections unsupported by strong underlying economics.

M&A Activity and Liquidity Solutions
The market for venture-backed exits is seeing renewed momentum through strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and secondary market liquidity facilities. Established corporate enterprises are acquiring high-performing technology startups to integrate proprietary artificial intelligence models and specialized software solutions into their product ecosystems.

Simultaneously, secondary market transactions have become an essential liquidity mechanism for early employees and institutional investors. Specialized secondary funds are purchasing pre-IPO shares at discounted valuations, providing liquidity opportunities while companies remain private for longer durations.

Sector Allocation: Deep Tech, Clean Energy, and Enterprise Automation
Venture capital investment is heavily concentrated in deep technology and capital-intensive engineering sectors. High-growth investment themes include:
– Next-Generation Semiconductors: Hardware startups designing specialized AI processors and energy-efficient microchip architectures.
– Clean Technology: Battery chemistry innovations, carbon capture solutions, and grid-scale energy storage startups.
– Enterprise Process Automation: Software platforms that automate complex workflows in healthcare, financial services, and industrial logistics.

Key Insights for Entrepreneurs and Investors
1. Prioritize Capital Efficiency: Startups focused on achieving operational profitability receive higher valuation premiums from institutional investors.
2. Strategic Exit Planning: Corporate M&A is serving as a primary exit route for venture-backed startups navigating prolonged IPO windows.
3. Focus on High-Moat Technologies: Deep tech and proprietary software architectures are securing the majority of growth-stage capital allocations.

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The Evolution of Digital Payments: Cross-Border Settlement and Central Bank Digital Currencies in 2026

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The infrastructure supporting global commerce is undergoing a major technological upgrade as real-time digital payment rails, cross-border settlement solutions, and Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot programs achieve widespread commercial adoption. Financial institutions and fintech developers are reimagining payment processing to eliminate friction, lower transaction fees, and accelerate settlement speed.

Transforming Cross-Border Settlement Infrastructure
For decades, international corporate payments relied on legacy correspondent banking networks characterized by multi-day settlement delays, opaque fee structures, and high foreign exchange markups. In 2026, modern cross-border payment networks are enabling near-instantaneous settlement for international trade transactions.

Financial technology platforms are leveraging distributed ledger technology and real-time gross settlement (RTGS) interconnections to settle transactions in seconds. International trade participants benefit from reduced working capital requirements and minimized foreign exchange volatility risks during cross-border transfers.

Commercial Expansion of Central Bank Digital Currencies
Central banks representing major global economies are advancing CBDC initiatives from research phases into active commercial deployment. Wholesale CBDCs—designed specifically for interbank settlement and financial institution clearing—are demonstrating substantial efficiency gains in domestic and international transactions.

At the retail level, several nations have introduced public digital currency options alongside existing commercial banking networks. These sovereign digital payment channels aim to expand financial inclusion, lower consumer transaction fees, and improve the efficiency of government-to-citizen financial disbursements.

Open Banking and Embedded Finance Ecosystems
Alongside settlement infrastructure upgrades, open banking regulations and embedded finance frameworks are transforming merchant-consumer interactions. Commercial businesses across retail, travel, and business-to-business (B2B) services are integrating seamless payment APIs directly into their customer software interfaces.

Through open banking frameworks, consumers can initiate secure bank-to-bank payments without relying on traditional credit card networks, significantly reducing merchant processing fees. Integrated Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) options and point-of-sale credit facilities continue to expand, driving higher conversion rates for digital commerce platforms.

Strategic Financial Takeaways
1. Treasury Optimization: Corporate treasurers should leverage instant cross-border payment platforms to minimize liquidity buffers and foreign exchange exposure.
2. CBDC Integration: Financial institutions must prepare internal core banking systems to interface with emerging wholesale CBDC payment rails.
3. Merchant Fee Reduction: Enterprise merchants can lower payment processing overhead by adopting account-to-account (A2A) open banking checkout solutions.

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