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Fed’s Goolsbee says ‘more sniffing’ may be needed before rate cuts

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Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, U.S., February 14, 2024. 

Staff | Reuters

“If you take a broad view, inflation got way above where we were comfortable with and it’s down a lot,” he said.

The first three readings for this year indicate covering the remaining distance to 2% “may not be as rapid,” he added.

That “stalling” merits further investigation on the direction of the economy before the Fed moves to cut rates, said Goolsbee, who is a nonvoting member this year of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

He described himself as a “proud data dog,” and pointed to what he says is “the first rule of the kennel.”

“If you are unclear, stop walking and start sniffing,” he said. “And with these numbers, we need to do more sniffing.”

“We want to have confidence that we are on this path to 2[%],” he said. “That’s the thing we have got to pay attention to.”

Former Kansas City Fed Pres.: The Fed is keeping all options on the table, including a rate increase

Housing inflation is a key area to watch, Goolsbee said.

“That’s the one that has not behaved as we thought it would,” he said.

Shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, rose 5.7% in March from a year ago. 

“The market rent inflation is well down, but it hasn’t flowed through into the official measure,” he said. “If it doesn’t — I still think it will — but if it doesn’t, I think we’re going to have a hard time. It’s definitely going to be more difficult to get to 2% overall if we do not see progress.”

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What to know about selecting health plans

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Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Although a broader window for Medicare enrollment has closed, some retirees have another opportunity to make changes to their coverage.

Medicare Advantage open enrollment is available from Jan. 1 through March 31.

Medicare Advantage plans are offered by private insurers as an alternative to original Medicare. Generally, Medicare Advantage may cover Medicare Parts A and B, as well as Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage and other potential extra benefits.

During this open enrollment period, individuals who are already enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan may switch to another Medicare Advantage plan. Alternatively, they may drop their current Medicare Advantage plan and opt for Medicare original coverage.

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To be sure, there will be more options later in the year during a broader open enrollment period that lasts from October to December, when Medicare original enrollees may also opt to change plans.

For beneficiaries who are eligible to make changes during this time, it’s important not to ignore this window, according to Juliette Cubanski, deputy director of the program on Medicare policy at KFF, a provider of health policy research.

“Plans can change considerably from one year to the next,” Cubanski said. “If people don’t compare their coverage to other options, they may not know that they’re going to be faced with higher costs.”

Check for significant changes

In order to be confident that you’re getting the best deal, it helps to evaluate how your current Advantage plan may have changed since last year.

You may be faced with higher costs if your personal prescriptions have gone up, for example, or your preferred medical provider is no longer in network.

Digging into those plan changes now can help avoid “bad surprises” later, according to Cubanski.

“Make sure the coverage that you have is going to continue to be the coverage that works best for you,” Cubanski said.

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Consider extra benefits

To be sure, Medicare Advantage plans have received negative attention because in some cases coverage was denied for necessary care.

Medicare Advantage plans are more likely than traditional Medicare to use prior authorization, approval needed before a patient can receive certain services or medications. However, because prior authorizations that have been denied are frequently overturned when they are appealed, that has prompted questions as to whether the plans are avoiding coverage obligations.

Medicare Advantage plans are more likely than original Medicare to offer extra benefits — such as dental, vision and hearing — that elderly beneficiaries need.

Most Medicare beneficiaries — 83% — consider supplemental benefits to be important to their coverage, according to a recent survey from The Commonwealth Fund, a provider of independent research on health care issues.

Notably, a larger share of Medicare Advantage enrollees — 89% — said supplemental benefits are important to them, versus 74% of traditional Medicare enrollees, The Commonwealth Fund found.

“People on Medicare, both older adults and those with disabilities, generally really need dental, hearing and vision services, as well as other benefits that are typically offered by Medicare Advantage plans,” said Gretchen Jacobson, vice president of Medicare at The Commonwealth Fund.

Beneficiaries who are in traditional Medicare may not have coverage for those same services unless they are able to purchase a supplemental plan or they qualify for Medicaid, Jacobson said.

Seek outside help

When it comes to comparing Advantage plans, beneficiaries do not have to go it alone, Cubanski noted.

State-based organizations — the State Health Insurance Program, or SHIP — provide assistance to Medicare beneficiaries to help sort through their plan options.

Unlike insurance brokers or other professionals, these organizations do not have a financial interest to sign people up for certain plans, Cubanski said.

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Federal judge blocks Musk’s DOGE access to student loan borrowers’ data

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Elon Musk speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland, U.S., Feb. 20, 2025. 

Nathan Howard | Reuters

A federal judge in Maryland on Monday granted a temporary restraining order barring staffers from Elon Musk‘s secretive government-slashing effort, the Department of Government Efficiency, from accessing the personal information of millions of student loan borrowers.

The order, issued by Judge Deborah Boardman, ruled that the Department of Education and the Office of Personnel Management — the government’s HR department — must stop sharing federal employees’ and student borrowers’ personal data with DOGE officials. It marks a significant limitation on DOGE’s access to Americans’ personal data.

Boardman’s order bars DOGE from the personal information at the Education Department until March 10 at 8 a.m.

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Workers for DOGE have entered government offices in recent weeks, looking to make deep cuts to federal spending.

Boardman’s order came in response to a lawsuit led by The American Federation of Teachers, a union representing 1.8 million members. The AFT sued several federal agencies, including the Education Department, for permitting DOGE access to individuals’ private data.

AFT president Randi Weingarten applauded Boardman’s decision.

“When people give their financial and other personal information to the federal government — namely to secure financial aid for their kids to go to college, or to get a student loan — they expect that data to be protected and used for the reasons it was intended,” Weingarten said.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request from CNBC for comment.

There are currently six DOGE “affiliates” working at the Education Department, according to the court order. DOGE has claimed that it needed access to student loan programs to investigate waste, fraud and abuse, Boardman said.

However, the judge said the order that the government didn’t explain why DOGE affiliates at the Education Department “need such comprehensive, sweeping access to the plaintiffs’ records to audit student loan programs.”

Boardman expressed concern that DOGE had access to people’s income information and Social Security numbers.

And she wrote that the plaintiffs would likely be successful in their claim that the Education Department’s disclosure of their records to DOGE staffers violates The Privacy Act, a federal law that applies to federal agencies and is meant to protect individuals’ personal information.

“The data in question includes really sensitive information on a population of people who had to give that information for one clear purpose: borrow money to get an education,” said Ben Winters, the director of artificial intelligence and privacy at the Consumer Federation of America.

“It’s crucial that institutions like governments only allow your data to be used for strictly the purpose you gave it for,” Winters said.

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Here’s why Trump tariffs may raise your car insurance premiums

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Nitat Termmee | Moment | Getty Images

The Trump administration’s tariff policies may raise auto insurance premiums for motorists, according to a new Insurify analysis. This at a time when drivers continue to see costs soar amid pandemic-era inflation.

A 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico — which may take effect as soon as March — would increase annual full-coverage car insurance premiums by 8% to $2,502, on average, by the end of 2025, according to Insurify.

It estimates average annual premiums would rise 5% by year-end, to $2,435, without tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Tariffs are expected to make cars and auto parts imported from Canada and Mexico — which are major suppliers for the U.S. market — more expensive. As a result, insurers pay out more money in claims when policyholders get into car accidents, and they pass on that financial risk to consumers via higher premiums.

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“When people think about tariffs, they typically think about goods they might get from somewhere else,” said Matt Brannon, a data journalist at Insurify who authored the analysis. “Many times, we don’t think about services like car insurance.”

He called the estimates of tariff impact “conservative.”

Trump tariffs proposed so far

The Trump administration has proposed tariffs on several fronts during its first month in power.

Trump imposed a 10% additional tariff on all imports from China, starting on Feb. 4. Across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico were also set to take effect that day, before the White House delayed them by a month.

About six out of every 10 auto replacement parts used in U.S. auto shop repairs are imported from Mexico, Canada and China, according to the American Property Casualty Insurance Association. Some car components cross the border multiple times before final assembly.

Trump also signed a sweeping plan for retaliatory tariffs on global trading partners, after a review set to be completed by early April. He signed an order to raise duties on aluminum and steel to 25%, up from 10%, and called for a 25% tariff on automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

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Economists don’t necessarily expect all tariffs to take effect. Trump may be wielding them as a tool to extract concessions from trading partners, they said.

“However, using tariffs as a negotiation tool doesn’t mean no imposition of tariffs,” Bank of America Securities economists wrote Friday in a research note. Those experts don’t anticipate Canada or Mexico tariffs will come to pass.

However, if they do, they’d likely exacerbate already soaring premiums for cars, parts and insurance premiums, experts said.

“Threats of 25% tariffs on the North American borders — proposed, now delayed — would disrupt more than three decades of free trade across North America and rattle every corner of the automobile business, while proposed ‘reciprocal’ tariffs would add further price pressure to an auto industry already facing affordability issues,” Cox Automotive wrote in a recent commentary.

Motor vehicle insurance premiums are up by 12% in the past year, according to the consumer price index.

Insurance costs began to rise quickly in 2022 and 2023 as Americans worked from home less often and commuted to work more frequently, Brannon said.

“A lot more people hit the road at the same time, which led to more accidents,” he said.

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