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Fed’s Goolsbee says ‘more sniffing’ may be needed before rate cuts

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Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, U.S., February 14, 2024. 

Staff | Reuters

“If you take a broad view, inflation got way above where we were comfortable with and it’s down a lot,” he said.

The first three readings for this year indicate covering the remaining distance to 2% “may not be as rapid,” he added.

That “stalling” merits further investigation on the direction of the economy before the Fed moves to cut rates, said Goolsbee, who is a nonvoting member this year of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

He described himself as a “proud data dog,” and pointed to what he says is “the first rule of the kennel.”

“If you are unclear, stop walking and start sniffing,” he said. “And with these numbers, we need to do more sniffing.”

“We want to have confidence that we are on this path to 2[%],” he said. “That’s the thing we have got to pay attention to.”

Former Kansas City Fed Pres.: The Fed is keeping all options on the table, including a rate increase

Housing inflation is a key area to watch, Goolsbee said.

“That’s the one that has not behaved as we thought it would,” he said.

Shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, rose 5.7% in March from a year ago. 

“The market rent inflation is well down, but it hasn’t flowed through into the official measure,” he said. “If it doesn’t — I still think it will — but if it doesn’t, I think we’re going to have a hard time. It’s definitely going to be more difficult to get to 2% overall if we do not see progress.”

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Now is an ‘ideal time’ to reassess your retirement savings, expert says

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When it comes to retirement savings, surveys often point to a big magic number you will need to have set aside to live well.

Yet retirement experts say to focus on another number — your personal savings rate — to make sure you achieve your retirement savings goals.

“Early in the year is an ideal time to reassess your retirement contributions and overall savings strategy because you can take advantage of any employer matches, adjust your monthly budget accordingly and stay ahead of potential market shifts,” said Douglas Boneparth, a certified financial planner and president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth, a wealth management firm based in New York City.

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What’s more, increasing your retirement savings now gives your money more time to compound — earning interest on both your contributions and previously earned interest. That can “significantly impact your nest egg over the long term,” said Boneparth, who is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

Boost your 401(k) deferral rate

If you have a 401(k) plan through your employer, now is a great time to look at your contribution rate, according to Mike Shamrell, vice president of thought leadership at Fidelity.

Most importantly, see how your savings rate corresponds to what your employer offers in terms of a company match, he said.

“It’s the closest thing a lot of people get to free money,” Shamrell said.

Oftentimes, companies have a match formula. If you’re not clear on how much you need to contribute to get the full match, contact your human resources department or 401(k) provider, Shamrell said.

How to do a financial reset

Fidelity recommends saving at least 15% of your pre-tax income annually, including your contributions and money from your employer.

If you’re not quite there — or you want to save even more — even just a 1% increase in your deferral rate can make a big difference to your retirement savings over time, Shamrell said.

“It may not have the significant impact on your take-home pay that you that you may be envisioning,” Shamrell said.

Fund your IRA for 2025 — and 2024

Revisit your investment allocations

In 2024, the average 401(k) balance grew about 11%, thanks to soaring stock markets, according to Shamrell.

Heading into the rest of 2025, now is a great time to revisit your personal asset allocations.

“Make sure your allocation didn’t drift too far into equities and that you don’t have more exposure to equities than you might realize,” Shamrell said.

If you’re worried about picking the wrong investment, you can instead opt for target date, asset allocation or balanced funds, which help decide how your funds are allotted for you, according to Marguerita Cheng, a certified financial planner and CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

Also be sure to consider to your risk capacity — the amount of risk you can afford — as well as risk tolerance — the amount of risk you’re willing to take, said Cheng, who is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

Identifying those personal limits ahead of time can help you stay the course during market turbulence, she said. Investors who bail during the market’s worst days may miss the best days, which often closely follow, research finds.

If you’ve had any major recent life events — gotten married, bought a house or had a baby, for example — you may also want to check that your allocations still correspond to your long-term plans, Shamrell said.

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There’s a big inherited IRA change in 2025. How to avoid a penalty

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Inheriting an individual retirement account is a windfall for many investors.

However, a lesser-known change for 2025 could trigger a costly surprise penalty, financial experts say.

Starting in 2025, certain heirs with inherited IRAs must take yearly required withdrawals while emptying accounts over 10 years, known as the “10-year rule.”   

“The big change [for 2025] is the IRS is enforcing penalties for missed required distributions,” said certified financial planner Judson Meinhart, director of financial planning at Modera Wealth Management in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

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There’s a 25% penalty for missing a required minimum distribution, or RMD, from an inherited IRA. But it’s possible to reduce the fee if your RMD is “timely corrected” within two years, according to the IRS.  

Here are the key things to know about the inherited IRA change. 

Which heirs could face a penalty

Before the Secure Act of 2019, heirs could withdraw funds from inherited IRAs over their lifetime, which helped reduce yearly income taxes.

Since 2020, certain inherited accounts have been subject to the “10-year rule,” meaning heirs must deplete inherited IRAs by the 10th year after the original account owner’s death.  

After years of waived penalties for missed RMDs from inherited IRAs, the IRS in July finalized guidance. Starting in 2025, certain beneficiaries must take yearly withdrawals during the 10-year window or they’ll face a penalty for missed RMDs.

The rule applies to heirs who are not a spouse, minor child, disabled, chronically ill or certain trusts — and the yearly withdrawals apply if the original IRA owner had reached their RMD age before death.

One group who could be impacted are adult children who inherited IRAs from their parents, according to CFP Edward Jastrem, chief planning officer at Heritage Financial Services in Westwood, Massachusetts.

But the rules have become a “spiderweb mess of decision-making,” he said.

Avoid the ’10-year tax squeeze’

How to do a financial reset

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‘Era of the billionaire.’ Here’s why wealth accumulation is accelerating

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President-elect Trump's cabinet to have more billionaires than any in history

The rich are getting richer.

The combined wealth of the world’s most wealthy rose to $15 trillion from $13 trillion in just 12 months, according to Oxfam’s latest annual inequality report — notching the second largest annual increase in billionaire wealth since the global charity began tracking this data.

Last year alone, roughly 204 new billionaires were minted, bringing the total number of billionaires to 2,769, up from 2,565 in 2023, the global charity found.

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“Not only has the rate of billionaire wealth accumulation accelerated — by three times — but so too has their power,” Oxfam International’s Executive Director Amitabh Behar said in a statement Sunday. 

“We’ve reached a new era now, we are in the era of the billionaire,” said Jenny Ricks, general secretary of the human rights group Fight Inequality Alliance. “The challenge now is turning this around and making this the era of the 99%.”

Despite the fact that America ranks first as the richest nation in the world in terms of gross domestic product, 36.8 million Americans live in poverty, accounting for 11.1% of the total population, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. 

“We need government serving people’s real needs and rights,” Ricks said, with increased funding for education and healthcare, among other social services.

‘Tax us, the super rich’

After Oxfam’s report was released, some of the world’s wealthiest people called on elected representatives of the world’s leading economies to introduce higher taxes on the very richest in society.

In an open letter to political leaders attending the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, more than 370 billionaires and millionaires said that they wanted to “tackle the corrosive impact of extreme wealth.”

To that end, “start with the simplest solution: tax us, the super rich,” the letter said.

36% of billionaire wealth is inherited

Oxfam found that 36% of billionaire wealth is now inherited. Much of that wealth will also get handed down. A separate report by UBS found that baby boomer billionaires’ heirs stand to inherit an estimated $6.3 trillion over the next 15 years.

“As the great wealth transition gains momentum … we expect the proportion of multigenerational billionaires to increase,” the report said.

According to Oxfam’s analysis, half of the world’s billionaires live in countries with no inheritance tax for direct descendants.

In the U.S., there is a federal estate tax up to 40%, depending on the amount of the estate over the current exclusion limit.

In 2025, the basic exclusion amount rose to $13.99 million per person, up from $13.61 million in 2024.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has vowed to fully extend the trillions in tax breaks he enacted via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, which also doubled the estate and gift tax exemption.

After 2025, the higher estate and gift tax exemption will sunset without action from Congress. If the provision expires, the exclusion will revert to 2017 levels, adjusted for inflation.

Some Democrats have pushed back on TCJA extensions, noting that they disproportionately benefit the wealthy, rather than middle-class families.

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