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Final fourth quarter GDP revised upwards as consumer spending rises

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An uptick in consumer spending helped boost U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter. (iStock)

The third and final estimate for real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 was revised upwards, showing that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.4%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The reading comes just above the BEA’s second GDP estimate for the fourth quarter, which showed the economy increased at 3.2%. The change primarily reflects upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment.  

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4% for the October-through-December period after rising 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023. Thursday’s final reading comes just under the BEA’s original GDP estimate for the fourth quarter, which showed the economy increased at a rate of 3.3% and beat economic forecasts that anticipated a deceleration of growth over the previous month with the expectation that the economy would expand by a 2% rate.

Economic growth is a crucial metric the Federal Reserve is monitoring as it weighs when it will begin dialing back interest rates. Fed officials have predicted at least three rate cuts this year, with interest rates expected to tick down to 4.6%, according to the central bank’s updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).  Market expectations are that the first rate cut will come in the summer, if not later in the year. 

If you are struggling with high inflation, you could consider taking out a personal loan to pay down debt at a lower interest rate, reducing your monthly payments. You can visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.

SOCIAL SECURITY: COLA INCREASING BUT MEDICARE COSTS RISING TOO IN 2024

High rates weigh on consumer wallets

The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates higher for longer puts a strain on consumer wallets and how much they pay to borrow, according to Michele Raneri, the vice president of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion.

According to a recent TransUnion report, credit card balances surged past the $1 trillion mark for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2023. While Americans charged on their cards, they also increased their unsecured personal loan balances in the fourth quarter. Personal origination balances topped $245 billion, compared to $222 billion the previous year.

“While inflation continues to trend towards more normal levels, today’s decision from the Fed is to hold interest rates at their current levels and that any potential decreases will take place later in 2024,” Raneri said. “This means U.S. consumers who continue to face relatively high-interest rates across a range of credit products will have to wait at least a bit longer for rate relief. When rates do begin falling, the effects throughout the credit industry will be real but will likely be slow to take root.”

Consumers can explore refinancing any high-interest debt into lower-interest credit products to reduce balances once interest rates are brought down, according to Raneri.

If you’re worried about high-interest debt, you could consider paying it off with a personal loan at a lower rate to reduce your monthly payments. Visit Credible to get your personalized rate in minutes. 

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Consumer optimism improving

Despite the economic challenges, consumer confidence hit a record high in March. The University of Michigan’s benchmark Consumer Sentiment Index rose 3.3% in March to a final reading of 79.4, the highest since July 2021, the University of Michigan said in a report.

The number reflects the improved consumer outlook that inflation will continue to soften and that personal finances will also be lifted as the effects of high prices and expenses on living standards ease, the report said.  

Consumers may be more optimistic, but the index remains far from its pre-pandemic highs, reflecting the long shadow of high inflation, according to Jim Baird, Plante Moran Financial Advisors’ chief investment officer.

“Consumers are far from ebullient in their assessment of the current state of the economy, their personal financial prospects, and the outlook for the economy further down the path,” Baird said. “The fact that consumer sentiment remains constrained against the backdrop of a robust labor economy, strong wage growth, and above-trend economic growth is a direct reflection of the corrosive effects of surging inflation in recent years.

“Paychecks may have experienced a nice boost in recent years, but when those additional dollars are going right back out the door to cover the rising cost of rent, food, gasoline, personal services, and a host of other expenditures, it’s no surprise that consumers aren’t more upbeat,” Baird continued.

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Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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Venture Capital and Startup Valuations in 2026: Focus on Unit Economics and Sustainable Growth

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The global venture capital (VC) ecosystem is operating under a disciplined investment framework in 2026. Following years of valuation adjustments and shifting liquidity environments, venture capital firms and private equity investors are prioritizing proven unit economics, positive cash flow pathways, and capital efficiency over rapid, unconstrained user acquisition.

The Shift Toward Disciplined Startup Valuations
Early-stage and growth-stage startup valuations have stabilized at sustainable historical averages. Venture capital partners are conducting rigorous due diligence processes before deploying capital, scrutinizing gross margins, customer acquisition costs (CAC), net revenue retention (NRR), and lifetime value (LTV) metrics.

While total capital deployed remains robust, seed and Series A funding rounds are taking longer to finalize. Founders are expected to demonstrate clear product-market fit and defensible intellectual property rather than relying on top-line revenue projections unsupported by strong underlying economics.

M&A Activity and Liquidity Solutions
The market for venture-backed exits is seeing renewed momentum through strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and secondary market liquidity facilities. Established corporate enterprises are acquiring high-performing technology startups to integrate proprietary artificial intelligence models and specialized software solutions into their product ecosystems.

Simultaneously, secondary market transactions have become an essential liquidity mechanism for early employees and institutional investors. Specialized secondary funds are purchasing pre-IPO shares at discounted valuations, providing liquidity opportunities while companies remain private for longer durations.

Sector Allocation: Deep Tech, Clean Energy, and Enterprise Automation
Venture capital investment is heavily concentrated in deep technology and capital-intensive engineering sectors. High-growth investment themes include:
– Next-Generation Semiconductors: Hardware startups designing specialized AI processors and energy-efficient microchip architectures.
– Clean Technology: Battery chemistry innovations, carbon capture solutions, and grid-scale energy storage startups.
– Enterprise Process Automation: Software platforms that automate complex workflows in healthcare, financial services, and industrial logistics.

Key Insights for Entrepreneurs and Investors
1. Prioritize Capital Efficiency: Startups focused on achieving operational profitability receive higher valuation premiums from institutional investors.
2. Strategic Exit Planning: Corporate M&A is serving as a primary exit route for venture-backed startups navigating prolonged IPO windows.
3. Focus on High-Moat Technologies: Deep tech and proprietary software architectures are securing the majority of growth-stage capital allocations.

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Finance

The Evolution of Digital Payments: Cross-Border Settlement and Central Bank Digital Currencies in 2026

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The infrastructure supporting global commerce is undergoing a major technological upgrade as real-time digital payment rails, cross-border settlement solutions, and Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot programs achieve widespread commercial adoption. Financial institutions and fintech developers are reimagining payment processing to eliminate friction, lower transaction fees, and accelerate settlement speed.

Transforming Cross-Border Settlement Infrastructure
For decades, international corporate payments relied on legacy correspondent banking networks characterized by multi-day settlement delays, opaque fee structures, and high foreign exchange markups. In 2026, modern cross-border payment networks are enabling near-instantaneous settlement for international trade transactions.

Financial technology platforms are leveraging distributed ledger technology and real-time gross settlement (RTGS) interconnections to settle transactions in seconds. International trade participants benefit from reduced working capital requirements and minimized foreign exchange volatility risks during cross-border transfers.

Commercial Expansion of Central Bank Digital Currencies
Central banks representing major global economies are advancing CBDC initiatives from research phases into active commercial deployment. Wholesale CBDCs—designed specifically for interbank settlement and financial institution clearing—are demonstrating substantial efficiency gains in domestic and international transactions.

At the retail level, several nations have introduced public digital currency options alongside existing commercial banking networks. These sovereign digital payment channels aim to expand financial inclusion, lower consumer transaction fees, and improve the efficiency of government-to-citizen financial disbursements.

Open Banking and Embedded Finance Ecosystems
Alongside settlement infrastructure upgrades, open banking regulations and embedded finance frameworks are transforming merchant-consumer interactions. Commercial businesses across retail, travel, and business-to-business (B2B) services are integrating seamless payment APIs directly into their customer software interfaces.

Through open banking frameworks, consumers can initiate secure bank-to-bank payments without relying on traditional credit card networks, significantly reducing merchant processing fees. Integrated Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) options and point-of-sale credit facilities continue to expand, driving higher conversion rates for digital commerce platforms.

Strategic Financial Takeaways
1. Treasury Optimization: Corporate treasurers should leverage instant cross-border payment platforms to minimize liquidity buffers and foreign exchange exposure.
2. CBDC Integration: Financial institutions must prepare internal core banking systems to interface with emerging wholesale CBDC payment rails.
3. Merchant Fee Reduction: Enterprise merchants can lower payment processing overhead by adopting account-to-account (A2A) open banking checkout solutions.

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