Connect with us

Personal Finance

Find out how good or bad your dream economy compared to today’s

Published

on

Presidential candidates are already battling over the economy, promising to bring back the boom times or realize the prosperity that lies ahead, if only we vote for them.

But are you better off now than you were four, eight, 30 years ago?

We wanted to see how good the past really was, and how today measures up. So we pulled some important data for the past three decades to put current conditions in context. Tell us what your dream economy would look like, and we’ll tell you how your vision tracks with the real world — and what other readers thought, too.

⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥

How much would prices go up or down in your dream economy?

You’ve probably noticed that prices have been rising. Economists and policymakers actually believe prices should increase a little bit, steadily and predictably. Specifically, they aim for an inflation rate of 2 percent each year.

Inflation especially stings now because of the spike over the last few years.

Even when inflation is where it’s supposed to be, a lot of factors contribute to it. Workers lobbying for better pay can push prices up — from there, employers might charge more to help cover their costs, and then other workers might also start asking to be paid more. Inflation can also arise from a mismatch in supply and demand: If 100 people want to buy cars, but a dealer only has 10 available, they will raise the price, knowing someone will probably want to pay it.

But you might only notice inflation when it’s higher than usual — and prices start to feel like they’re rising too fast. That’s what’s been happening lately. Inflation soared during the pandemic and worsened with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the Federal Reserve has been working hard to try to bring prices back under control.

The central bank’s goal isn’t to push prices themselves down, but to keep them from rising too fast. Prices only tend to fall when the economy is in real trouble, and deflation usually brings along a slew of its own problems.

⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥

How about wages?

Wages tend to go up with inflation. Ideally, as goods and services become more expensive, your paycheck rises enough to keep up.

But average pay has bounced around over the past 30 years. Wages fell dramatically during the Great Recession, when the financial system cratered, millions of people lost their jobs and the recovery was slow.

After the pandemic, though, pay started to pick up faster than usual because employers were desperate to hire, and there weren’t enough people coming back into the labor market to take jobs at hotels, restaurants, retail stores, airports and more. Wages have cooled a bit since but are still above normal levels.

⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥

How would gas prices change in your dream economy?

You can see gas prices changing all the time, with big billboards at every gas station nearby. Fuel costs also make up a large share of households’ budgets, so when prices at the pump rise, it can be especially tough.

Fuel prices swing around quite a bit, even in normal times. Gas costs often rise in the summer when there’s more consumer demand for travel and road trips. And they can be tied to global factors affecting oil supply and production.

Most recently, prices at the pump soared in the summer of 2022, breaking records at over $5 per gallon after Russia invaded Ukraine and roiled global energy markets. They’ve since come way down.

⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥

How many Americans would have $400 socked away for an emergency?

Even when the economy is doing well, a large share of the population doesn’t have more than a few hundred dollars stored away for an emergency cushion.

When the economy runs into trouble, people have an even harder time with emergencies: In 2013, in the wake of the Great Recession, only half of Americans could cover an unforeseen $400 expense. That share slowly grew as the economy continued to recover.

After the pandemic recession, an unprecedented level of government stimulus under the Trump and Biden administrations sent checks directly into peoples’ pockets and shored up unemployment benefits. That meant more people than usual could handle emergency expenses in 2021. Now that the extra support is drying up, the total is dropping again.

⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥

What’s your dream mortgage rate?

Your mortgage rate can make or break whether you can afford a house. For most home buyers, higher rates mean higher monthly payments, even for homes at the same price.

Mortgage rates are influenced by a range of factors in the housing market. They’re also tied to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate: When the Fed raises rates, mortgage rates go up and vice versa.

Rates that seem high today were fairly normal throughout the 1990s. But the Fed cut rates after the Great Recession and kept them low for years — and then did the same after the pandemic began. That means many millennials came of age when mortgage rates were historically low, at or below 4 percent. If you’re a generation older, though, you may remember paying nearly 20 percent for a mortgage in the early 1980s.

⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥

How would stocks fare?

The stock market doesn’t always have much to do with the economy overall. But you still probably pay close attention to it, like many people: More than half of American households do have retirement accounts, and about one in five own stock directly.

The market drops during recessions or after sudden shocks, like the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Stocks also took a beating in 2008, when the collapse of the housing market triggered a global financial crisis. They dropped fast when the pandemic began, but then rallied again.

Generally speaking, the stock market trends up. And now, major indexes are clinching new highs.

⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥⬥

How fast would your dream economy grow?

Growth looks at the value of all of the goods and services — basically, all of the stuff — produced inside the United States, and gauges whether we’re making more of it than we used to.

This can bounce around depending on what else is happening in the country or the world. Gross domestic product tanked, for example, in the wake of the Great Recession in 2008, then again when the pandemic hit in 2020. But growth also surged after both of those slowdowns — especially after the covid recession, thanks to massive government stimulus spending. Things have calmed down to more sustainable levels, but the economy is still growing at a solid pace.

Answer all questions to see your results

So how does your dream economy compare with what’s happening now?

By many measures, the economy is doing really well in the real world. There’s no recession in sight, and growth is chugging along. The stock market is near record highs and still climbing. Inflation isn’t yet back to normal levels, but the Federal Reserve is working on that, and gas prices are simmering back down, while wages — even though they’ve settled a bit — are growing faster than prices are.

People still don’t love the economy, though, no matter how good the stats look. Will a few more months of solid performance change any minds? Only time will tell.

Photos from iStock.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

There’s a key change coming to 401(k) catch-up contributions in 2025

Published

on

Aire Images | Moment | Getty Images

Many Americans face a retirement savings shortfall. However, setting aside more money could get easier for some older workers in 2025.

Enacted by Congress in 2022, the Secure Act 2.0 ushered in several retirement system improvements, including updates to 401(k) plans, required withdrawals, 529 college savings plans and more.

While some Secure 2.0 changes have already happened, another key change for “max savers,” will begin in 2025, according to Dave Stinnett, Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting.

More from Personal Finance:
Here’s why the U.S. retirement system isn’t among the world’s best
Buying a home? Here are key steps to consider from top-ranked advisors
More colleges set to close in 2025, while ‘Ivy Plus’ schools thrive

Some 4 in 10 American workers are behind in retirement planning and savings, according to a CNBC survey, which polled roughly 6,700 adults in early August.

But changes to 401(k) catch-up contributions — a higher limit for workers age 50 and older — could soon help certain savers, experts say. Here’s what to know.

Higher 401(k) catch-up contributions

Employees can now defer up to $23,000 into 401(k) plans for 2024, with an extra $7,500 for workers age 50 and older.

But starting in 2025, workers aged 60 to 63 can boost annual 401(k) catch-up contributions to $10,000 — or 150% of the catch-up limit — whichever is greater. The IRS hasn’t yet unveiled the catch-up contribution limit for 2025.  

“This can be a great way for people to boost their retirement savings,” said certified financial planner Jamie Bosse, senior advisor at CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kansas.

An estimated 15% of eligible workers made catch-up contributions in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report.

Those making catch-up contributions tend to be higher earners, Vanguard’s Stinnett explained. But they could still have “real concerns about being able to retire comfortably.”

More than half of 401(k) participants with income above $150,000 and nearly 40% with an account balance of more than $250,000 made catch-up contributions in 2023, the Vanguard report found.

Roth catch-up contributions

Another Secure 2.0 change will remove the upfront tax break on catch-up contributions for higher earners by only allowing the deposits in after-tax Roth accounts.

The change applies to catch-up deposits to 401(k), 403(b) or 457(b) plans who earned more than $145,000 from a single company the prior year. The amount will adjust for inflation annually. 

However, IRS in August 2023 delayed the implementation of that rule to January 2026. That means workers can still make pretax 401(k) catch-up contributions through 2025, regardless of income.

Roth conversions on the rise: Here's what to know

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Holiday shoppers plan to spend more, while taking on debt this season

Published

on

Increase in consumer holiday spending expected this year, says Mastercard's Michelle Meyer

Americans often splurge on gifts during the holidays.

This year, holiday spending from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 is expected to increase to a record total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Even as credit card debt tops $1.14 trillion, holiday shoppers expect to spend, on average, $1,778, up 8% compared to last year, Deloitte’s holiday retail survey found.

Meanwhile, 28% of holiday shoppers still haven’t paid off the gifts they purchased for their loved ones last year, according to another holiday spending report by NerdWallet

How shoppers pay for holiday gifts

Heading into the peak holiday shopping season, 74% of shoppers plan to use credit cards to make their purchases, NerdWallet found.

Another 28% will tap savings to buy holiday gifts and 16% will lean on buy now, pay later services. NerdWallet polled more than 1,700 adults in September.  

More from Personal Finance:
Could buy now, pay later loans affect your credit score? 
Americans can’t stop ‘spaving’ — how to avoid this financial trap
Don’t believe these money misconceptions

Buy now, pay later is now one of the fastest-growing categories in consumer finance and is only expected to become more popular in the months ahead, according to the most recent data from Adobe. Adobe forecasts BNPL spending will peak on Cyber Monday with a new single-day-record of $993 million.

However, buy now, pay later loans can be especially hard to track, making it easier for more consumers to get in over their heads, some experts have cautioned — even more than credit cards, which are simpler to account for, despite sky-high interest rates.

The problem with credit cards and BNPL

To be sure, credit cards are one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. The average credit card charges more than 20% — near an all-time high.

Alternatively, the option to pay in installments can make financial sense, especially at 0%. 

And yet, buy now, pay later loans “are just another form of credit, disguised as something for free,” said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com.

The more BNPL accounts open at once, the more prone consumers become to overspending, missed or late payments and poor credit history, other research shows.

If a consumer misses a payment, there could be late fees, deferred interest or other penalties, depending on the lender. In some cases, those interest rates can be as high as 30%, rivaling the highest credit card charges. 

“This is just another way for financers to put their hands in the pocket of consumers,” Dvorkin said. “It’s a trojan horse.”

Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Here’s why the U.S. retirement system isn’t among the world’s best

Published

on

Mixetto | E+ | Getty Images

The U.S. retirement system doesn’t get high marks relative to other nations.

In fact, the U.S. got a C+ grade and ranked No. 29 out of 48 global pension systems in 2024, according to the annual Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index, released Tuesday. It analyzed both public and private sources of retirement funds, like Social Security and 401(k) plans.

A similar index compiled by Natixis Investment Management puts the U.S. at No. 22 out of 44 nations this year. Its position has declined from a decade ago, when it ranked No. 18.

“I think [a C+ grade] would describe a rating where there is a lot of room for improvement,” said Christine Mahoney, global retirement leader at Mercer, a consulting firm.

The Netherlands placed No. 1, followed by Iceland, Denmark and Israel, respectively, which all received “A” grades, according to Mercer. Singapore, Australia, Finland and Norway got a B+.

Fourteen nations — Chile, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Uruguay, New Zealand, Belgium, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, France, Germany, Croatia and Portugal — got a B.

CNBC Retirement Survey: 44% of workers are 'cautiously optimistic' about reaching retirement goals

Of course, retirement systems differ since they address a nation’s unique economies, social and cultural norms, politics and history, according to the Mercer report. However, there are certain traits that can generally determine how well older citizens fare financially, the report found.

The U.S. system is often referred to as a three-legged stool, consisting of Social Security, workplace retirement plans and individual savings.

The lackluster standing by the U.S. in the world is largely due to a sizable gap in the share of people who have access to a workplace retirement plan, and for the ample opportunities for “leakage” of savings from accounts before retirement, Mahoney said.

Employers aren’t required to offer a retirement plan like a pension or 401(k) plan to workers. About 72% of workers in the private sector had access to one in March 2024, and about half (53%) participated, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

More from Personal Finance:
Life spans are growing but ‘health spans’ are shrinking
What to do with RMDs when you don’t need the money
Who would benefit from Trump’s proposed tax break on car loan interest

“The people who have [a plan], it’s probably pretty good on average, but you have a lot of people who have nothing,” Mahoney said.

By contrast, some of the highest-ranked countries like the Netherlands “cover essentially all workers in the country,” said Graham Pearce, Mercer’s global defined benefit segment leader.

Additionally, top-rated nations generally have greater restrictions relative to the U.S. on how much cash citizens can withdraw before retirement, Pearce explained.

American workers can withdraw their 401(k) savings when they switch jobs, for example.

About 40% of workers who leave a job cash out “prematurely” each year, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. A separate academic study from 2022 examined more than 160,000 U.S. employees who left their jobs from 2014 to 2016, and found that about 41% cashed out at least some of their 401(k) — and 85% completely drained their balance.

Employers are also legally allowed to cash out small 401(k) balances and send workers a check.

While the U.S. might offer more flexibility to people who need to tap their funds in case of emergencies, for example, this so-called leakage also reduces the amount of savings they have available in old age, experts said.

“If you’re someone who moves through jobs, has low savings rates and leakage, it makes it difficult to build your own retirement nest egg,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, Prudential’s investment management arm.

Social Security is considered a major income source for most older Americans, providing the majority of their retirement income for a significant portion of the population over 65 years old.

To that point, about nine out of 10 people aged 65 and older were receiving a Social Security benefit as of June 30, according to the Social Security Administration.

Social Security benefits are generally tied to a worker’s wage and work history, Blanchett said. For example, the amount is pegged to a worker’s 35-highest years of pay.

While benefits are progressive, meaning lower earners generally replace a bigger share of their pre-retirement paychecks than higher earners, Social Security’s minimum benefit is lesser than other nations, like those in Scandinavia, with public retirement programs, Blanchett said.

“It’s less of a safety net,” he said.

“There’s something to be said that, as a public pension benefit, increasing the minimum benefit for all retirees would strengthen the retirement resiliency for all Americans,” Blanchett said.

That said, policymakers are trying to resolve some of these issues.

For example, 17 states have established so-called auto-IRA programs in a bid to close the coverage gap, according to the Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives.

These programs generally require employers who don’t offer a workplace retirement plan to automatically enroll workers into the state plan and facilitate payroll deduction.

A recent federal law known as Secure 2.0 also expanded aspects of the retirement system. For example, it made more part-time workers eligible to participate in a 401(k) and raised the dollar threshold for employers to cash out balances for departing workers.

Continue Reading

Trending