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Find out how good or bad your dream economy compared to today’s

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Presidential candidates are already battling over the economy, promising to bring back the boom times or realize the prosperity that lies ahead, if only we vote for them.

But are you better off now than you were four, eight, 30 years ago?

We wanted to see how good the past really was, and how today measures up. So we pulled some important data for the past three decades to put current conditions in context. Tell us what your dream economy would look like, and we’ll tell you how your vision tracks with the real world — and what other readers thought, too.

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How much would prices go up or down in your dream economy?

You’ve probably noticed that prices have been rising. Economists and policymakers actually believe prices should increase a little bit, steadily and predictably. Specifically, they aim for an inflation rate of 2 percent each year.

Inflation especially stings now because of the spike over the last few years.

Even when inflation is where it’s supposed to be, a lot of factors contribute to it. Workers lobbying for better pay can push prices up — from there, employers might charge more to help cover their costs, and then other workers might also start asking to be paid more. Inflation can also arise from a mismatch in supply and demand: If 100 people want to buy cars, but a dealer only has 10 available, they will raise the price, knowing someone will probably want to pay it.

But you might only notice inflation when it’s higher than usual — and prices start to feel like they’re rising too fast. That’s what’s been happening lately. Inflation soared during the pandemic and worsened with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the Federal Reserve has been working hard to try to bring prices back under control.

The central bank’s goal isn’t to push prices themselves down, but to keep them from rising too fast. Prices only tend to fall when the economy is in real trouble, and deflation usually brings along a slew of its own problems.

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How about wages?

Wages tend to go up with inflation. Ideally, as goods and services become more expensive, your paycheck rises enough to keep up.

But average pay has bounced around over the past 30 years. Wages fell dramatically during the Great Recession, when the financial system cratered, millions of people lost their jobs and the recovery was slow.

After the pandemic, though, pay started to pick up faster than usual because employers were desperate to hire, and there weren’t enough people coming back into the labor market to take jobs at hotels, restaurants, retail stores, airports and more. Wages have cooled a bit since but are still above normal levels.

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How would gas prices change in your dream economy?

You can see gas prices changing all the time, with big billboards at every gas station nearby. Fuel costs also make up a large share of households’ budgets, so when prices at the pump rise, it can be especially tough.

Fuel prices swing around quite a bit, even in normal times. Gas costs often rise in the summer when there’s more consumer demand for travel and road trips. And they can be tied to global factors affecting oil supply and production.

Most recently, prices at the pump soared in the summer of 2022, breaking records at over $5 per gallon after Russia invaded Ukraine and roiled global energy markets. They’ve since come way down.

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How many Americans would have $400 socked away for an emergency?

Even when the economy is doing well, a large share of the population doesn’t have more than a few hundred dollars stored away for an emergency cushion.

When the economy runs into trouble, people have an even harder time with emergencies: In 2013, in the wake of the Great Recession, only half of Americans could cover an unforeseen $400 expense. That share slowly grew as the economy continued to recover.

After the pandemic recession, an unprecedented level of government stimulus under the Trump and Biden administrations sent checks directly into peoples’ pockets and shored up unemployment benefits. That meant more people than usual could handle emergency expenses in 2021. Now that the extra support is drying up, the total is dropping again.

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What’s your dream mortgage rate?

Your mortgage rate can make or break whether you can afford a house. For most home buyers, higher rates mean higher monthly payments, even for homes at the same price.

Mortgage rates are influenced by a range of factors in the housing market. They’re also tied to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate: When the Fed raises rates, mortgage rates go up and vice versa.

Rates that seem high today were fairly normal throughout the 1990s. But the Fed cut rates after the Great Recession and kept them low for years — and then did the same after the pandemic began. That means many millennials came of age when mortgage rates were historically low, at or below 4 percent. If you’re a generation older, though, you may remember paying nearly 20 percent for a mortgage in the early 1980s.

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How would stocks fare?

The stock market doesn’t always have much to do with the economy overall. But you still probably pay close attention to it, like many people: More than half of American households do have retirement accounts, and about one in five own stock directly.

The market drops during recessions or after sudden shocks, like the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Stocks also took a beating in 2008, when the collapse of the housing market triggered a global financial crisis. They dropped fast when the pandemic began, but then rallied again.

Generally speaking, the stock market trends up. And now, major indexes are clinching new highs.

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How fast would your dream economy grow?

Growth looks at the value of all of the goods and services — basically, all of the stuff — produced inside the United States, and gauges whether we’re making more of it than we used to.

This can bounce around depending on what else is happening in the country or the world. Gross domestic product tanked, for example, in the wake of the Great Recession in 2008, then again when the pandemic hit in 2020. But growth also surged after both of those slowdowns — especially after the covid recession, thanks to massive government stimulus spending. Things have calmed down to more sustainable levels, but the economy is still growing at a solid pace.

Answer all questions to see your results

So how does your dream economy compare with what’s happening now?

By many measures, the economy is doing really well in the real world. There’s no recession in sight, and growth is chugging along. The stock market is near record highs and still climbing. Inflation isn’t yet back to normal levels, but the Federal Reserve is working on that, and gas prices are simmering back down, while wages — even though they’ve settled a bit — are growing faster than prices are.

People still don’t love the economy, though, no matter how good the stats look. Will a few more months of solid performance change any minds? Only time will tell.

Photos from iStock.

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House Republicans advance Trump’s tax bill. ‘SALT’ deduction in limbo

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Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., speaks during a House Oversight and Accountability Committee impeachment inquiry hearing into U.S. President Joe Biden on Sept. 28, 2023.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

House Republicans have advanced trillions of tax breaks as part of President Donald Trump‘s economic package.

After debating the legislation overnight, the House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees tax, passed its portion of the legislation on Wednesday morning in a 26-19 party line vote.

But the battle over the deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT, remains in limbo.

The text released Monday afternoon would raise the SALT cap to $30,000 for those with a modified adjusted gross income of $400,000 or less. But some House lawmakers still want to see a higher limit before the full House vote.

While the SALT deduction is a key priority for certain lawmakers in high-tax states, the current $10,000 cap was added to help fund the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017.

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Following the vote, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., said in a statement that Ways and Means Republicans will “continue to work closely with President Trump and our House colleagues to get the One, Big, Beautiful Bill that delivers on the President’s agenda to his desk as soon as possible.”   

The full House vote could come as early as next week. But the legislation could see significant changes in the Senate, experts say.

House Republicans’ proposed tax cuts

The House Ways and Means Committee legislation includes several of Trump’s campaign priorities, including extensions of tax breaks enacted via the TCJA.

If enacted as drafted, Republicans could also deliver no tax on tips and tax-free overtime pay. But questions remain about the details of these provisions.  

Rather than cutting taxes on Social Security, the plan includes an extra $4,000 deduction for older Americans, which may not fully cover Social Security income, according to some experts.

The $4,000 deduction costs $90 billion over 10 years, compared to $1 trillion for exempting Social Security income from tax, Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, wrote in a post on X Tuesday.

“Tax filers with no other income sources outside of Social Security would typically see little benefit, while others may see bigger gains from this idea,” he wrote in that thread. 

Rep. Mike Lawler: President Trump fully supports lifting the cap on SALT Tax

The House Ways and Means bill also extends the maximum child tax credit of $2,000 enacted via the TCJA, and temporarily raises the tax break to $2,500 per child through 2028.

However, some policy experts have criticized the proposed credit design since lower earners typically can’t claim the full amount.

The proposed legislation “did nothing for the 17 million children that are left out of the current $2,000 credit,” Kris Cox, director of federal tax policy with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ federal fiscal policy division, told CNBC.

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Social Security benefits at risk for defaulted student loan borrowers

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Vgajic | E+ | Getty Images

Social Security beneficiaries are at risk of receiving a smaller benefit if they’ve fallen behind on their student loans.

The Trump administration recently announced it would move to offset defaulted student loan borrowers’ federal benefits, and warned that payments could be garnished as soon as June.

That involuntary collection activity could have serious consequences on those who rely on the benefits to pay most, if not all, of their bills, consumer advocates say.

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There are some 2.9 million people age 62 and older with federal student loans, as of the first quarter of 2025, according to Education Department data. That is a 71% increase from 2017, when there were 1.7 million such borrowers, according to the data.

More than 450,000 borrowers in that age group are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found.

Here’s what borrowers need to know.

Up to 15% of Social Security benefits can be taken

Social Security recipients can typically see up to 15% of their monthly benefit reduced to pay back their defaulted student debt, but beneficiaries need to be left with at least $750 a month, experts said.

The offset cap is the same “regardless of the type of benefit,” including retirement and disability payments, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

The 15% offset is calculated from your total benefit amount before any deductions, such as your Medicare premium, Kantrowitz said.

Little notice provided

Student loan borrowers facing offsets of their federal benefits seem to be getting less notice under the Trump administration, Kantrowitz said.

While a 65-day heads-up used to be the norm, it seems the Education Department is now assuming borrowers who are in default were already notified about possible collection activity prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, he said.

“The failure of the U.S. Department of Education to provide the 65-day notice limits the ability of borrowers to challenge the Treasury offset of their Social Security benefit payments,” Kantrowitz said.

Still, borrowers should get at least a 30-day warning, Kantrowitz said. The notice should be sent to your last known address, so borrowers should make sure their loan servicer has their most recent contact information.

The Education Department provided defaulted federal student borrowers with the required notice, a spokesperson told CNBC after collections efforts resumed May 5.

“The notice may be sent only once, and borrowers may have received this notice before Covid,” the spokesperson said.

You can still contest offset

Once you receive a notice that your Social Security benefits will be offset, you should have the option to challenge the collection activity, Kantrowitz said. The notice is supposed to include information on how you can do so, he said.

You may be able to prevent the offset if you can prove a financial hardship or have a pending student loan discharge, Kantrowitz added.

“Borrowers who receive these notices should not panic,” said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program. “They should reach out for help as soon as possible.”

Getting out of default

The best way to avoid the offset of your Social Security benefits is to get current on your loans, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

You can contact the government’s Default Resolution Group and pursue several different avenues to get out of default, including enrolling in an income-driven repayment plan.

“If Social Security is their only income, their payment under those plans would likely be zero,” Mayotte said.

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How to save for college in a volatile market

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Stephanie Phillips | Getty Images

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“Markets go up and down, but students’ goals remain the same,” said Chris McGee, chair of the College Savings Foundation.

529 plan popularity has soared

In 2024, the number of 529 plan accounts increased to 17 million, up more than 3% percent from the year before, according to Investment Company Institute.

Total investments in 529s rose to $525 billion as of December, up 11% from a year earlier, while the average 529 plan account balance hit a record of $30,961, data from the College Savings Plans Network, a network of state-administered college savings programs, also showed.

The industry is coming off its best year ever in terms of new inflows,” said Richard Polimeni, head of education savings at ‎Merrill Lynch.

However, “in terms of the current market volatility, that creates some concern,” he added.

Student loan matching funds

Even as concerns over college costs are driving more would-be college students to rethink their plans, college savings accounts are still as vital as ever.

Roughly 42% of students are pivoting to technical and career training or credentialing, or are opting to enroll in a local and less-expensive community college or in-state public school, according to a recent survey of 1,000 high schoolers by the College Savings Foundation. That’s up from 37% last year. 

As a result of those shifting education choices, 69% of students are expecting to live at home during their studies, the highest percentage in three years. 

Despite those adjustments, some recent changes have helped make 529 plans even more worthwhile: As of 2024, families can roll over unused 529 funds to the account beneficiary’s Roth individual retirement account, without triggering income taxes or penalties, so long as they meet certain requirements.

Restrictions have also loosened to allow 529 plan funds to be used for continuing education classes, apprenticeship programs and student loan payments. For grandparents, there is also a new “loophole,” which allows them to fund a grandchild’s college without impacting that student’s financial aid eligibility.

Managing 529 allocations in a volatile market

For parents worried about their account’s recent performance, Mary Morris, CEO of Commonwealth Savers, advises checking the asset allocation. “What you need to think about is assessing your risk appetite,” she said.

Generally, 529 plans offer age-based portfolios, which start off with more equity exposure early on in a child’s life and then become more conservative as college nears. By the time high school graduation is around the corner, families likely have very little invested in stocks and more in investments like bonds and cash. That can help blunt their losses.

Pay attention to your fund’s approach toward shifting from stocks to bonds, Morris said.

“If you are in a total stock portfolio, you may not want that ride,” she said: “You don’t want to get seasick.”

If the market volatility is still too much to bear, consider adjusting your allocation.

“One strategy is to start de-risking a portion of their portfolio and reallocate a portion into cash equivalent, which will provide a protection of principle while also proving a competitive return and peace of mind,” Polimeni said.

Still, financial experts strongly caution against shifting your entire 529 balance to cash. “The worst thing an investor can do in a down market is panic and sell investments prematurely and lock in losses,” Polimeni said.

Often that is the last resort. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, only 10% of investors liquidated their entire 529 accounts, and 20% switched to less risky assets, according to an earlier survey by higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

How to help 529 assets recover

For those who must make a hefty withdrawal for tuition payments now due, Polimeni suggests considering using income or savings outside the 529 to cover immediate college expenses, and requesting a reimbursement later.

You can get reimbursed from your 529 plan for any eligible out-of-pocket expenses within the same calendar year. “Using that strategy gives another six to seven months for the market to recover,” Polimeni said.

Another option is to tap a federal student loan and take a qualified distribution from the 529 plan to pay off the debt down the road. However, if you’re thinking of taking out private student loans or a personal loan that starts incurring interest immediately, you may want to spend 529 funds first in that case, and defer that borrowing until later.

Once you have a withdrawal plan, you can — and should — keep contributing to your 529, experts say. Not only can you get a tax deduction or credit for contributions, but earnings will grow on a tax-advantaged basis, whether over 18 years or just a few.

“The major advantage is the tax-deferred growth, so the longer you are invested, the more tax-deferred growth you will have,” Polimeni said.

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