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Find out how good or bad your dream economy compared to today’s

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Presidential candidates are already battling over the economy, promising to bring back the boom times or realize the prosperity that lies ahead, if only we vote for them.

But are you better off now than you were four, eight, 30 years ago?

We wanted to see how good the past really was, and how today measures up. So we pulled some important data for the past three decades to put current conditions in context. Tell us what your dream economy would look like, and we’ll tell you how your vision tracks with the real world — and what other readers thought, too.

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How much would prices go up or down in your dream economy?

You’ve probably noticed that prices have been rising. Economists and policymakers actually believe prices should increase a little bit, steadily and predictably. Specifically, they aim for an inflation rate of 2 percent each year.

Inflation especially stings now because of the spike over the last few years.

Even when inflation is where it’s supposed to be, a lot of factors contribute to it. Workers lobbying for better pay can push prices up — from there, employers might charge more to help cover their costs, and then other workers might also start asking to be paid more. Inflation can also arise from a mismatch in supply and demand: If 100 people want to buy cars, but a dealer only has 10 available, they will raise the price, knowing someone will probably want to pay it.

But you might only notice inflation when it’s higher than usual — and prices start to feel like they’re rising too fast. That’s what’s been happening lately. Inflation soared during the pandemic and worsened with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the Federal Reserve has been working hard to try to bring prices back under control.

The central bank’s goal isn’t to push prices themselves down, but to keep them from rising too fast. Prices only tend to fall when the economy is in real trouble, and deflation usually brings along a slew of its own problems.

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How about wages?

Wages tend to go up with inflation. Ideally, as goods and services become more expensive, your paycheck rises enough to keep up.

But average pay has bounced around over the past 30 years. Wages fell dramatically during the Great Recession, when the financial system cratered, millions of people lost their jobs and the recovery was slow.

After the pandemic, though, pay started to pick up faster than usual because employers were desperate to hire, and there weren’t enough people coming back into the labor market to take jobs at hotels, restaurants, retail stores, airports and more. Wages have cooled a bit since but are still above normal levels.

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How would gas prices change in your dream economy?

You can see gas prices changing all the time, with big billboards at every gas station nearby. Fuel costs also make up a large share of households’ budgets, so when prices at the pump rise, it can be especially tough.

Fuel prices swing around quite a bit, even in normal times. Gas costs often rise in the summer when there’s more consumer demand for travel and road trips. And they can be tied to global factors affecting oil supply and production.

Most recently, prices at the pump soared in the summer of 2022, breaking records at over $5 per gallon after Russia invaded Ukraine and roiled global energy markets. They’ve since come way down.

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How many Americans would have $400 socked away for an emergency?

Even when the economy is doing well, a large share of the population doesn’t have more than a few hundred dollars stored away for an emergency cushion.

When the economy runs into trouble, people have an even harder time with emergencies: In 2013, in the wake of the Great Recession, only half of Americans could cover an unforeseen $400 expense. That share slowly grew as the economy continued to recover.

After the pandemic recession, an unprecedented level of government stimulus under the Trump and Biden administrations sent checks directly into peoples’ pockets and shored up unemployment benefits. That meant more people than usual could handle emergency expenses in 2021. Now that the extra support is drying up, the total is dropping again.

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What’s your dream mortgage rate?

Your mortgage rate can make or break whether you can afford a house. For most home buyers, higher rates mean higher monthly payments, even for homes at the same price.

Mortgage rates are influenced by a range of factors in the housing market. They’re also tied to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate: When the Fed raises rates, mortgage rates go up and vice versa.

Rates that seem high today were fairly normal throughout the 1990s. But the Fed cut rates after the Great Recession and kept them low for years — and then did the same after the pandemic began. That means many millennials came of age when mortgage rates were historically low, at or below 4 percent. If you’re a generation older, though, you may remember paying nearly 20 percent for a mortgage in the early 1980s.

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How would stocks fare?

The stock market doesn’t always have much to do with the economy overall. But you still probably pay close attention to it, like many people: More than half of American households do have retirement accounts, and about one in five own stock directly.

The market drops during recessions or after sudden shocks, like the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Stocks also took a beating in 2008, when the collapse of the housing market triggered a global financial crisis. They dropped fast when the pandemic began, but then rallied again.

Generally speaking, the stock market trends up. And now, major indexes are clinching new highs.

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How fast would your dream economy grow?

Growth looks at the value of all of the goods and services — basically, all of the stuff — produced inside the United States, and gauges whether we’re making more of it than we used to.

This can bounce around depending on what else is happening in the country or the world. Gross domestic product tanked, for example, in the wake of the Great Recession in 2008, then again when the pandemic hit in 2020. But growth also surged after both of those slowdowns — especially after the covid recession, thanks to massive government stimulus spending. Things have calmed down to more sustainable levels, but the economy is still growing at a solid pace.

Answer all questions to see your results

So how does your dream economy compare with what’s happening now?

By many measures, the economy is doing really well in the real world. There’s no recession in sight, and growth is chugging along. The stock market is near record highs and still climbing. Inflation isn’t yet back to normal levels, but the Federal Reserve is working on that, and gas prices are simmering back down, while wages — even though they’ve settled a bit — are growing faster than prices are.

People still don’t love the economy, though, no matter how good the stats look. Will a few more months of solid performance change any minds? Only time will tell.

Photos from iStock.

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Personal Finance

Why tax-loss harvesting can be easier with ETFs

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Despite a strong year for the stock market, you could still be sitting on portfolio losses. But you can leverage down assets to score a tax break, experts say.

The tactic, known as “tax-loss harvesting,” involves selling losing brokerage account assets to claim a loss. When you file your taxes, you can use those losses to offset portfolio gains. Once your investment losses exceed profits, you can use the excess to reduce regular income by up to $3,000 per year.

“Tax-loss harvesting is a tried and true strategy to lower investors’ tax bills,” said certified financial planner David Flores Wilson, managing partner at Sincerus Advisory in New York. 

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After offsetting $3,000 in regular income, investors can carry any additional losses forward into future years to offset capital gains or income.

“Investors can benefit substantially over time” by tax-loss harvesting consistently throughout the year, Wilson said.

What to know about the wash sale rule

Tax-loss harvesting can be simple when you’re eager to offload a losing asset. But it’s tricky when you still want exposure to that asset.

That’s because of guidelines from the IRS known as the “wash sale rule,” which blocks you from claiming the tax break on losses if you rebuy a “substantially identical” asset within the 30-day window before or after the sale.

In other words, you can’t sell a losing asset to claim a loss and then immediately repurchase the same investment. 

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Ultimately, the IRS definition of “substantially identical” isn’t black and white and “depends on the facts and circumstances” of your case, according to the agency.

When in doubt, consider reviewing your plan with an advisor or tax professional to make sure you’re safe from violating the wash sale rule.

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Older voters prioritized personal economic issues on Election Day: AARP

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Voters line up to cast their ballots at a voting location in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, on Nov. 5, 2024.

Samuel Corum | Afp | Getty Images

When asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” the answer for many older voters ages 50 and over was “no,” according to a new post-election poll released by the AARP.

Almost half — 47% — of voters ages 50 and over said they are “worse off now,” the research found, while more than half — 55% — of swing voters in that age cohort said the same.

In competitive Congressional districts, President-elect Donald Trump won the 50 and over vote by two percentage points — the same margin by which he carried the country, AARP found.

Among voters 50 to 64, Trump won by seven points. With voters ages 65 and over, Vice President Kamala Harris won by two points.

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The AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, a bipartisan team of Republican and Democrat firms providing public opinion research and consulting, to conduct the survey. Interviews were conducted with 2,348 “likely voters” in targeted congressional districts following Election Day between Nov. 6 and 10.

Older voters, who make up an outsized share of the vote and tend to lean Republican, made a difference in a lot of key congressional races, according to Bob Ward, a Republican pollster and partner at Fabrizio Ward.

“Overall, 50-plus voters really are what delivered Republicans their majority,” Ward said.

Older swing voters focused on pocketbook issues

When asked “How worried are you about your personal financial situation?” in a June AARP survey, 62% of voters ages 50 and over checked the worry box, while 63% of voters overall did the same.

Voters continued to place an emphasis on their money concerns on Election Day, the latest AARP poll found.

“All these surveys that we conducted for AARP spoke to a lack of economic security for people,” said Jeff Liszt, partner at Impact Research.

“The shock of inflation had left them without a feeling of security,” he said.

For voters ages 50 and over, food ranked as the top cost concern, with 39%, the poll found. That was followed by health care and prescription drugs, with 20%; housing, 14%; gasoline, 10%; and electricity, 6%.

More than half — 55% — of voters ages 50 and up said they prioritized personal economic issues, including inflation, the economy and jobs, and Social Security when determining their vote.

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Older swing voters were more likely to turn out at the polls due to those pocketbook issues than any other priorities, the poll found.  

Republicans won older voters on most personal economic issues, though voters ages 50 and up still favored Democrats on Social Security by two points.  

Democrats have traditionally had a stronger lead on Social Security, Ward said, while the poll results show it is now “completely up for grabs.”

“Looking at the midterms, whether I’m Republican or Democrat … this is going to be an issue I want to win on,” Ward said.

Voters 50 and over broadly support Medicare negotiating prescription drug prices, as well as policies to help the older population age at home. Non-financial issues such as immigration and border security and threats to democracy were also among top concerns for some older voters.

Social Security reform may be bigger focus

While both presidential candidates promised to protect Social Security on the campaign trail, they did not provide plans to restore the program’s solvency.

The trust fund Social Security relies on to pay benefits is projected to run dry in 2033, at which point 79% of those benefits will be payable.

“What’s absolutely clear is that there’s an action-forcing event that we’re getting closer to, and that at some point Congress is going to have to act,” said Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group focused on expanding the program.

While Trump has touted plans to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, research has found that would worsen the program’s insolvency. The House voted this week to eliminate rules that reduce Social Security benefits for certain people who have pension income, which would also add to the program’s costs.

For most Americans, Social Security is the primary source of retirement income, according to the AARP. About 42% of people ages 65 and over rely on the program for at least 50% of their incomes; about 20% rely on it for at least 90% of their incomes.

Like Social Security, Medicare also faces a looming trust fund depletion for the Part A program that covers hospital insurance.

“We want to ensure that we’re protecting Medicare, Social Security and that it’s done in a fiscally responsible way,” AARP CEO Dr. Myechia Minter-Jordan told CNBC in a recent interview.

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Here’s what to expect on mortgage rates into early 2025

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Mortgage rates seem to have steadied. That may be a good sign for the market, experts say.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the U.S. slightly dipped to 6.78% for the week ending Nov. 14, barely changed from 6.79% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.

“Even though it’s higher than it has been over the course of several weeks, it’s probably good news for homebuyers,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. 

“When rates are moving around a lot, it makes a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Lautz said. 

Mortgage rates declined this fall in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020. But then borrowing costs jumped again this month as the bond market reacted to Donald Trump’s election win.

While the president-elect has talked about bringing mortgage rates down, presidents do not control borrowing costs for home loans, experts say.

Instead, mortgage rates closely track Treasury yields and are partially affected by what happens with the federal funds rate.

“They foresee inflationary policies, whether it’s tariffs or greater government spending, the tax bill … they’re pricing in more inflation,” said James Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. “As the bond market reacts, mortgage rates are going to react to that, too.”

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Less volatility can be a good sign, said Chen Zhao, Chief economist at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage.

“High volatility by itself actually pushes mortgage rates even higher above treasury yields,” Zhao said. “More stable rates also means that homebuyers don’t have to worry during their home search about what their budget allows for changing.”

Trump’s team did not respond to a request for comment.

Don’t expect ‘huge swings’ on mortgage rates

Election uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. Then rates went up even more last week as the stock market and yields reacted to the election results.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points on Nov. 6, closing to trade at 4.43%, hitting its highest level since July, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth, along with fiscal spending. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 0.073 basis point to 4.276% that day, reaching its highest level since July 31.

But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said.

From a monetary policy standpoint, future rate cuts are up in the air. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.

If the Fed continues to ease the federal funds rate, it could provide indirect downward pressure on mortgage rates, according to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

“However, improved growth expectations would lead to higher rates, as would larger government deficits,” he said.

Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a “bumpy” or “volatile” path over the next year.

“I don’t think that there’s going to be any huge swings down into the 5% range,” Lautz said. “Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025,” she said.

How buyers, sellers and homeowners can benefit

Rates that are trending lower can present an opportunity for buyers who have been house hunting for a while, especially as the winter season kicks in. Competition tends to slow down in the winter months in part because homebuyers with kids are in the middle of the school year and reluctant to move, Lautz explained. 

Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025.

Jessica Lautz

Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors

Current homeowners can also make the most of lower rates.

For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said. 

It “makes sense” to consider a refinance if rates have fallen one to two points since you took out the loan, Jeff Ostrowski, a housing expert at Bankrate.com, told CNBC after the Fed’s first rate cut this fall.

Remember that a loan refinance isn’t free; you may incur associated costs like closing costs, an appraisal and title insurance. While the total cost will depend on your area, a refi is going to cost between 2% and 6% of the loan amount, Jacob Channel, an economist at LendingTree, said at that time.

If you’re pondering on whether to refi or not, look at what’s going on with rates, reach out to lenders and see if refinancing makes sense for you, experts say.

Homeowners have earned record home equity. U.S. homeowners with mortgages have a net homeowner equity of over $17.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2024, according to CoreLogic. Home equity increased in the second quarter of this year by $1.3 trillion, an 8.0% growth from a year prior.

If you’re looking to sell your current home, you may be able to counteract slightly high borrowing costs on your next property by placing a larger down payment, Lautz said.

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