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Find out how good or bad your dream economy compared to today’s

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Presidential candidates are already battling over the economy, promising to bring back the boom times or realize the prosperity that lies ahead, if only we vote for them.

But are you better off now than you were four, eight, 30 years ago?

We wanted to see how good the past really was, and how today measures up. So we pulled some important data for the past three decades to put current conditions in context. Tell us what your dream economy would look like, and we’ll tell you how your vision tracks with the real world — and what other readers thought, too.

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How much would prices go up or down in your dream economy?

You’ve probably noticed that prices have been rising. Economists and policymakers actually believe prices should increase a little bit, steadily and predictably. Specifically, they aim for an inflation rate of 2 percent each year.

Inflation especially stings now because of the spike over the last few years.

Even when inflation is where it’s supposed to be, a lot of factors contribute to it. Workers lobbying for better pay can push prices up — from there, employers might charge more to help cover their costs, and then other workers might also start asking to be paid more. Inflation can also arise from a mismatch in supply and demand: If 100 people want to buy cars, but a dealer only has 10 available, they will raise the price, knowing someone will probably want to pay it.

But you might only notice inflation when it’s higher than usual — and prices start to feel like they’re rising too fast. That’s what’s been happening lately. Inflation soared during the pandemic and worsened with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the Federal Reserve has been working hard to try to bring prices back under control.

The central bank’s goal isn’t to push prices themselves down, but to keep them from rising too fast. Prices only tend to fall when the economy is in real trouble, and deflation usually brings along a slew of its own problems.

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How about wages?

Wages tend to go up with inflation. Ideally, as goods and services become more expensive, your paycheck rises enough to keep up.

But average pay has bounced around over the past 30 years. Wages fell dramatically during the Great Recession, when the financial system cratered, millions of people lost their jobs and the recovery was slow.

After the pandemic, though, pay started to pick up faster than usual because employers were desperate to hire, and there weren’t enough people coming back into the labor market to take jobs at hotels, restaurants, retail stores, airports and more. Wages have cooled a bit since but are still above normal levels.

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How would gas prices change in your dream economy?

You can see gas prices changing all the time, with big billboards at every gas station nearby. Fuel costs also make up a large share of households’ budgets, so when prices at the pump rise, it can be especially tough.

Fuel prices swing around quite a bit, even in normal times. Gas costs often rise in the summer when there’s more consumer demand for travel and road trips. And they can be tied to global factors affecting oil supply and production.

Most recently, prices at the pump soared in the summer of 2022, breaking records at over $5 per gallon after Russia invaded Ukraine and roiled global energy markets. They’ve since come way down.

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How many Americans would have $400 socked away for an emergency?

Even when the economy is doing well, a large share of the population doesn’t have more than a few hundred dollars stored away for an emergency cushion.

When the economy runs into trouble, people have an even harder time with emergencies: In 2013, in the wake of the Great Recession, only half of Americans could cover an unforeseen $400 expense. That share slowly grew as the economy continued to recover.

After the pandemic recession, an unprecedented level of government stimulus under the Trump and Biden administrations sent checks directly into peoples’ pockets and shored up unemployment benefits. That meant more people than usual could handle emergency expenses in 2021. Now that the extra support is drying up, the total is dropping again.

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What’s your dream mortgage rate?

Your mortgage rate can make or break whether you can afford a house. For most home buyers, higher rates mean higher monthly payments, even for homes at the same price.

Mortgage rates are influenced by a range of factors in the housing market. They’re also tied to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate: When the Fed raises rates, mortgage rates go up and vice versa.

Rates that seem high today were fairly normal throughout the 1990s. But the Fed cut rates after the Great Recession and kept them low for years — and then did the same after the pandemic began. That means many millennials came of age when mortgage rates were historically low, at or below 4 percent. If you’re a generation older, though, you may remember paying nearly 20 percent for a mortgage in the early 1980s.

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How would stocks fare?

The stock market doesn’t always have much to do with the economy overall. But you still probably pay close attention to it, like many people: More than half of American households do have retirement accounts, and about one in five own stock directly.

The market drops during recessions or after sudden shocks, like the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Stocks also took a beating in 2008, when the collapse of the housing market triggered a global financial crisis. They dropped fast when the pandemic began, but then rallied again.

Generally speaking, the stock market trends up. And now, major indexes are clinching new highs.

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How fast would your dream economy grow?

Growth looks at the value of all of the goods and services — basically, all of the stuff — produced inside the United States, and gauges whether we’re making more of it than we used to.

This can bounce around depending on what else is happening in the country or the world. Gross domestic product tanked, for example, in the wake of the Great Recession in 2008, then again when the pandemic hit in 2020. But growth also surged after both of those slowdowns — especially after the covid recession, thanks to massive government stimulus spending. Things have calmed down to more sustainable levels, but the economy is still growing at a solid pace.

Answer all questions to see your results

So how does your dream economy compare with what’s happening now?

By many measures, the economy is doing really well in the real world. There’s no recession in sight, and growth is chugging along. The stock market is near record highs and still climbing. Inflation isn’t yet back to normal levels, but the Federal Reserve is working on that, and gas prices are simmering back down, while wages — even though they’ve settled a bit — are growing faster than prices are.

People still don’t love the economy, though, no matter how good the stats look. Will a few more months of solid performance change any minds? Only time will tell.

Photos from iStock.

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Personal Finance

Trump funding freeze is existential threat: Morehouse College president

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Morehouse College President David Thomas speaks during Morehouse College’s graduation ceremony, before US President Joe Biden delivers his commencement address, in Atlanta, Georgia on May 19, 2024. 

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

David Thomas, the president of Morehouse College, said his office fielded a surge of calls this week from worried students and their families concerned the Trump Administration’s “federal funding freeze” would directly impact college access

The sudden scramble was “perhaps only rivaled by what happened in March of 2020 when we realized that the Covid pandemic was truly a threat,” Thomas told CNBC. He became president of Morehouse, one of the country’s top historically Black colleges and universities, or HBCUs, in 2018.

This freeze on federal aid “would create another existential threat as great as the pandemic,” he said.

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Thomas’ comments come amid ongoing confusion about how a freeze on federal grants and loans could potentially impact students and schools.

A Jan. 27 memo issued by the Office of Management and Budget, which would affect billions of dollars in aid, said the pause on federal grants and loans “does not include assistance provided directly to individuals.”

Although the memo was later rescinded, the White House said a “federal funding freeze” remains in “full force and effect.” It is currently on hold amid legal challenges.

Thomas, who is also on the Board of Trustees at Yale University, said college leaders across the country have spent the better part of the week focused on “the consequences of this action.” Morehouse immediately initiated a hiring freeze in preparation for a potentially significant financial disruption.

“All of the institutions are still in limbo,” he said.

What college aid may be affected

At Morehouse College, about 40% of the student body relies on Federal Pell Grants, a type of federal aid available to low-income families.

Following the memo’s release, the Education Department announced that the freeze would not affect student loans or Pell Grants.

“The temporary pause does not impact Title I, IDEA, or other formula grants, nor does it apply to Federal Pell Grants and Direct Loans under Title IV [of the Higher Education Act],” Education Department spokesperson Madi Biedermann said in a statement.

In addition to the federal financial aid programs that fall under Title IV, Title I provides financial assistance to school districts with children from low-income families. The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, or IDEA, provides funding for students with disabilities.

The funding pause “only applies to discretionary grants at the Department of Education,” Biedermann said. “These will be reviewed by Department leadership for alignment with Trump Administration priorities.”

President Trump moves to halt federal grants

But questions remain about other aid for college.

The freeze could affect federal work-study programs and the Federal Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grant, which are provided in bulk to colleges to provide to students, according to Kalman Chany, a financial aid consultant and author of The Princeton Review’s “Paying for College.”

The disruption to federally backed research funding also poses a threat to college programs and staff.

‘Lots of reasons to still be concerned’

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Personal Finance

What federal employees need to consider when evaluating offer to resign

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A “Do not cross” sign is illuminated at a crosswalk outside of U.S. Capitol building in Washington, US, November 10, 2024. 

Hannah Mckay | Reuters

The Trump administration emailed more than 2 million federal workers this week, giving them the option to resign now and get pay and benefits through Sept. 30.

Workers have until Feb. 6 to accept the “deferred resignation” offer.

The payouts come on the heels of President Donald Trump‘s executive order to end DEI programs. On Wednesday, he said federal workers need to return to the office five days a week “or be terminated.”

“We think a very substantial number of people will not show up to work, and therefore our government will get smaller and more efficient,” Trump said at the signing of an immigration detention law.

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Experts advise federal employees to take their time before accepting the offer. By accepting the resignation, tenured federal employees could lose certain rights they may have.

“If you resign, it’s deemed voluntary,” said Michael L. Vogelsang, Jr., a principal of The Employment Law Group, P.C. “If you are a permanent, tenured employee in the government and the administration wants you out, laws still exist that federal employees cannot just be fired on a whim.”

Meanwhile, some lawmakers question whether the president can make this offer without Congressional approval.

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Virginia, said federal employees should not be “fooled” by Trump’s proposal.

“If you accept that offer and resign, he’ll stiff you,” Kaine said. “He doesn’t have any authority to do this.” 

The Voluntary Separation Incentive Payment Authority gives federal agencies the authority to offer buyout incentives for some employees to resign or retire, but it is capped at $25,000.

Asked for more detail on the payouts, including what authority the president has to offer to pay through September 30, the White House referred back to its statement given on Tuesday.

“If they don’t want to work in the office and contribute to making America great again, then they are free to choose a different line of work and the Trump Administration will provide a very generous payout of eight months,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

There is already uncertainty around current funding for the federal government. It’s operating under a short-term continuing resolution passed in December. Unless Congress acts, the federal government could shut down on March 14. 

Unlike with corporate buyouts, federal employees who received this offer can’t appeal for a better deal, experts say.

“Usually with buyouts, I think of more severance, and usually it’s sort of some kind of negotiation. This isn’t really negotiation. It’s sort of a unilateral offer,” Vogelsang said.

Still, some of the factors to consider for weighing the government’s deferred resignation offer are similar to what one would weigh in a corporate buyout, experts say:

Consider how much your position is at risk

For federal employees who aren’t permanent, Vogelsang says they should consider how much their position is at risk and if their skills make it likely they’ll be able to find another job. 

“I think there’s enough executive orders out there that people in DEI, probationary employees, IRS employees, environmental employees, can probably read between the lines that their positions may be at risk moving forward,” he said.

Research job alternatives 

Career experts advise not waiting to begin the job search.

“Start thinking about your search now, because it’s going to be longer than you think, especially with people flooding the market,” said Caroline Ceniza-Levine, a career coach and founder of Dream Career Club. 

Prepare for a job search by updating your LinkedIn profile, identifying your accomplishments and reflecting on professional achievements so you can explain them clearly and concisely. “You don’t get every job that you apply for, and that can be a very frustrating and emotionally draining process,” said Ron Seifert, senior client partner at the staffing firm Korn Ferry. 

Consider the work culture if you stay

Think about the culture and career implications of rejecting the offer. A question to ask yourself is, “If I’m still here after this is done, what will this place feel like?” Seifert said. “Is this a place where I have opportunity?”

“I would caution people against making decisions when they’re in the panic zone,” said Connie Whittaker Dunlop, principal of Monarch Consulting Group. “There are a fair number of unknowns, but if you can kind of ground yourself in what you know, what you value, and then make that, make a decision from that space, I think,  people will be better served.” 

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These child tax credit mistakes can halt your refund, experts say

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Millions of families claim the child tax credit every year — and filing mistakes can delay the processing of your return and receipt of your refund, according to tax experts. 

For 2024 returns, the child tax credit is worth up to $2,000 per kid under age 17, and decreases once adjusted gross income exceeds $200,000 for single taxpayers or $400,000 for married couples filing jointly.  

The refundable portion, known as the additional child tax credit, or ACTC, is up to $1,700. Filers can claim the ACTC even without taxes owed, which often benefits lower earners.

However, a lower-income family who doesn’t know how to claim the credit “misses out on thousands of dollars,” National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins wrote in her annual report to Congress released in January. 

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More than 18 million filers claimed the additional child tax credit in 2022, according to the latest IRS estimates. 

By law, the IRS can’t issue ACTC refunds before mid-February. But the Where’s My Refund portal should have status updates by Feb. 22 for most early filers, according to the IRS.  

Here’s how to avoid common child tax credit mistakes that could further delay your refund.

Know if you have a ‘qualifying child’

One child tax credit mistake is not knowing eligibility.

The rules can be “very confusing,” according to Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.

To claim the child tax credit or ACTC, you must have a “qualifying child,” according to the IRS. The qualifying child guidelines include:

  • Age: 17 years old at the end of the tax year
  • Relationship: Your son, daughter, stepchild, eligible foster child, brother, sister, stepbrother, stepsister, half-brother, half-sister or a descendant of these
  • Dependent status: Dependent on your tax return
  • Filing status: Child is not filing jointly
  • Residency: Lived with you for more than half the year
  • Support: Didn’t pay for more than half of their living expenses
  • Citizenship: U.S. citizen, U.S. national or a U.S. resident alien  
  • Social Security number: Valid Social Security number by tax due date (including extensions) 

You may avoid some eligibility errors by filing via tax software or using a preparer versus filing a paper return on your own, O’Saben said. Tax software typically includes credit eligibility, which can minimize errors.

Missing Social Security number

Typically, parents apply for a Social Security number in the hospital when completing their baby’s birth certificate. But it can take one to six weeks from application to receive that number, according to the agency, which can create time pressure for families with a new addition around tax season.

Filing a tax return and claiming the child tax credit before receiving the Social Security number is a mistake, O’Saben said.

“I have seen [the child tax credit] denied for people who have filed before they got the Social Security number for a dependent,” he said. “And there’s no going back.”

If you don’t have the number before the tax deadline, you should request an extension, which gives you six months more to file your return, O’Saben explained.

However, you still must pay taxes owed by the original deadline.

Tax Tip: Child Credit

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