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Framing decision-making about your money amid political uncertainty

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Voters wanting to cast an early vote line up outside the Elena Bozeman Government Center for a polling station to open in Arlington, Virginia, on September 20, 2024.

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50% of Americans believe election outcome will directly impact their personal finances, survey finds

Decision-making around the November election isn’t limited to who voters plan to choose at the ballot box. Americans’ feelings about which candidate may win are also driving people’s decisions about their own finances.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans, 63%, are deferring financial decisions about vacations, car and home purchases, and remodeling projects until after the November election, according to a CFP Board survey of 1,005 Americans conducted in early August. 

But waiting for election results may not be the best move.

Experts advise evaluating if a financial decision should be made sooner, and considering the cost of waiting.  Remember, major policy changes requiring legislation take time, with the president and members of Congress in agreement.

How to frame decision-making ahead of the election

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Financial advisors say the election or its results shouldn’t be the driving factor for money decisions. Instead, they say people should focus on their own goals.

Ask yourself: “If Candidate A won or Candidate B won, would they really do something different?” said Michael Liersch, head of advice and planning at Wells Fargo.

It’s more important to consider your personal financial plan and how a big purchase relates to it. Often, the political outcome generates uncertainty over a purchase or investment decision, but it probably won’t change the outcome of whether it’s a smart move.  

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“When I’m talking with a client who thinks they’re going to put something off, we go back to that plan,” said certified financial planner Liz Miller, founder and president of Summit Place Financial Advisors, Summit, New Jersey. Often, she said, they find that there’s no need to delay.

Map out the scenarios 

Consider a best-case scenario, worst-case scenario and something in between. “Within that framework, you can test it,” said Liersch. “Don’t wait for the outcome to be known. Look into it now, map out those possibilities, and see if it would even change your decision in any way, shape, or form.”

Take, for example, concerns about Social Security benefits being reduced, which 81% of respondents said was a top concern in an Edelman Financial Engines survey.

Absent action from Congress, the trust fund Social Security relies on to pay retirement benefits is due to run out in 2033. At that time, just 79% of benefits will be payable.

There are steps you can take to give you some perspective, including getting your Social Security benefit estimate and looking at where you can boost savings.

Figure what a benefit cut might mean for you: Can you budget differently in coming years to help make up for that shortfall? Paying down debt, building an emergency fund, and sticking with your investment strategy are solid moves right now, experts say.

“As you see all of these different things, these headlines, in a very uncertain world, you can feel more at peace that number one, you are doing the right things, and that you’re on solid financial footing,” said CFP Stacy Francis, president and CEO of Francis Financial in New York City. She is also a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

Francis is spending time with clients now updating their financial plans and mapping it out to age 95. Many are considering Roth conversions ahead of tax policy changes, for example.

Be proactive with your plan

Candidate pitches around capital gain taxes are also concerning investors. Experts say, regardless of election results, with double-digit gains in the stock market, now is a good time to evaluate whether to take some gains. 

“We are proactively talking about what is the ability to take some capital gains this year, when we know the capital gain tax rates are stable and we know what to expect,” said Miller, who is 2024 Chair-Elect of the the CFP Board.

While waiting to take action until after the election results are known, consider if it’s necessary. “Ask yourself, is delaying this decision just to see the outcome of the election, Is that really worth the distance in delaying that decision or would making the decision sooner provide a greater benefit,” said Wells Fargo’s Liersch.

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Personal Finance

There’s a key change coming to 401(k) catch-up contributions in 2025

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Many Americans face a retirement savings shortfall. However, setting aside more money could get easier for some older workers in 2025.

Enacted by Congress in 2022, the Secure Act 2.0 ushered in several retirement system improvements, including updates to 401(k) plans, required withdrawals, 529 college savings plans and more.

While some Secure 2.0 changes have already happened, another key change for “max savers,” will begin in 2025, according to Dave Stinnett, Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting.

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Some 4 in 10 American workers are behind in retirement planning and savings, according to a CNBC survey, which polled roughly 6,700 adults in early August.

But changes to 401(k) catch-up contributions — a higher limit for workers age 50 and older — could soon help certain savers, experts say. Here’s what to know.

Higher 401(k) catch-up contributions

Employees can now defer up to $23,000 into 401(k) plans for 2024, with an extra $7,500 for workers age 50 and older.

But starting in 2025, workers aged 60 to 63 can boost annual 401(k) catch-up contributions to $10,000 — or 150% of the catch-up limit — whichever is greater. The IRS hasn’t yet unveiled the catch-up contribution limit for 2025.  

“This can be a great way for people to boost their retirement savings,” said certified financial planner Jamie Bosse, senior advisor at CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kansas.

An estimated 15% of eligible workers made catch-up contributions in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report.

Those making catch-up contributions tend to be higher earners, Vanguard’s Stinnett explained. But they could still have “real concerns about being able to retire comfortably.”

More than half of 401(k) participants with income above $150,000 and nearly 40% with an account balance of more than $250,000 made catch-up contributions in 2023, the Vanguard report found.

Roth catch-up contributions

Another Secure 2.0 change will remove the upfront tax break on catch-up contributions for higher earners by only allowing the deposits in after-tax Roth accounts.

The change applies to catch-up deposits to 401(k), 403(b) or 457(b) plans who earned more than $145,000 from a single company the prior year. The amount will adjust for inflation annually. 

However, IRS in August 2023 delayed the implementation of that rule to January 2026. That means workers can still make pretax 401(k) catch-up contributions through 2025, regardless of income.

Roth conversions on the rise: Here's what to know

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Holiday shoppers plan to spend more, while taking on debt this season

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Increase in consumer holiday spending expected this year, says Mastercard's Michelle Meyer

Americans often splurge on gifts during the holidays.

This year, holiday spending from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 is expected to increase to a record total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Even as credit card debt tops $1.14 trillion, holiday shoppers expect to spend, on average, $1,778, up 8% compared to last year, Deloitte’s holiday retail survey found.

Meanwhile, 28% of holiday shoppers still haven’t paid off the gifts they purchased for their loved ones last year, according to another holiday spending report by NerdWallet

How shoppers pay for holiday gifts

Heading into the peak holiday shopping season, 74% of shoppers plan to use credit cards to make their purchases, NerdWallet found.

Another 28% will tap savings to buy holiday gifts and 16% will lean on buy now, pay later services. NerdWallet polled more than 1,700 adults in September.  

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Buy now, pay later is now one of the fastest-growing categories in consumer finance and is only expected to become more popular in the months ahead, according to the most recent data from Adobe. Adobe forecasts BNPL spending will peak on Cyber Monday with a new single-day-record of $993 million.

However, buy now, pay later loans can be especially hard to track, making it easier for more consumers to get in over their heads, some experts have cautioned — even more than credit cards, which are simpler to account for, despite sky-high interest rates.

The problem with credit cards and BNPL

To be sure, credit cards are one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. The average credit card charges more than 20% — near an all-time high.

Alternatively, the option to pay in installments can make financial sense, especially at 0%. 

And yet, buy now, pay later loans “are just another form of credit, disguised as something for free,” said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com.

The more BNPL accounts open at once, the more prone consumers become to overspending, missed or late payments and poor credit history, other research shows.

If a consumer misses a payment, there could be late fees, deferred interest or other penalties, depending on the lender. In some cases, those interest rates can be as high as 30%, rivaling the highest credit card charges. 

“This is just another way for financers to put their hands in the pocket of consumers,” Dvorkin said. “It’s a trojan horse.”

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Here’s why the U.S. retirement system isn’t among the world’s best

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The U.S. retirement system doesn’t get high marks relative to other nations.

In fact, the U.S. got a C+ grade and ranked No. 29 out of 48 global pension systems in 2024, according to the annual Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index, released Tuesday. It analyzed both public and private sources of retirement funds, like Social Security and 401(k) plans.

A similar index compiled by Natixis Investment Management puts the U.S. at No. 22 out of 44 nations this year. Its position has declined from a decade ago, when it ranked No. 18.

“I think [a C+ grade] would describe a rating where there is a lot of room for improvement,” said Christine Mahoney, global retirement leader at Mercer, a consulting firm.

The Netherlands placed No. 1, followed by Iceland, Denmark and Israel, respectively, which all received “A” grades, according to Mercer. Singapore, Australia, Finland and Norway got a B+.

Fourteen nations — Chile, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Uruguay, New Zealand, Belgium, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, France, Germany, Croatia and Portugal — got a B.

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Of course, retirement systems differ since they address a nation’s unique economies, social and cultural norms, politics and history, according to the Mercer report. However, there are certain traits that can generally determine how well older citizens fare financially, the report found.

The U.S. system is often referred to as a three-legged stool, consisting of Social Security, workplace retirement plans and individual savings.

The lackluster standing by the U.S. in the world is largely due to a sizable gap in the share of people who have access to a workplace retirement plan, and for the ample opportunities for “leakage” of savings from accounts before retirement, Mahoney said.

Employers aren’t required to offer a retirement plan like a pension or 401(k) plan to workers. About 72% of workers in the private sector had access to one in March 2024, and about half (53%) participated, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

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“The people who have [a plan], it’s probably pretty good on average, but you have a lot of people who have nothing,” Mahoney said.

By contrast, some of the highest-ranked countries like the Netherlands “cover essentially all workers in the country,” said Graham Pearce, Mercer’s global defined benefit segment leader.

Additionally, top-rated nations generally have greater restrictions relative to the U.S. on how much cash citizens can withdraw before retirement, Pearce explained.

American workers can withdraw their 401(k) savings when they switch jobs, for example.

About 40% of workers who leave a job cash out “prematurely” each year, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. A separate academic study from 2022 examined more than 160,000 U.S. employees who left their jobs from 2014 to 2016, and found that about 41% cashed out at least some of their 401(k) — and 85% completely drained their balance.

Employers are also legally allowed to cash out small 401(k) balances and send workers a check.

While the U.S. might offer more flexibility to people who need to tap their funds in case of emergencies, for example, this so-called leakage also reduces the amount of savings they have available in old age, experts said.

“If you’re someone who moves through jobs, has low savings rates and leakage, it makes it difficult to build your own retirement nest egg,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, Prudential’s investment management arm.

Social Security is considered a major income source for most older Americans, providing the majority of their retirement income for a significant portion of the population over 65 years old.

To that point, about nine out of 10 people aged 65 and older were receiving a Social Security benefit as of June 30, according to the Social Security Administration.

Social Security benefits are generally tied to a worker’s wage and work history, Blanchett said. For example, the amount is pegged to a worker’s 35-highest years of pay.

While benefits are progressive, meaning lower earners generally replace a bigger share of their pre-retirement paychecks than higher earners, Social Security’s minimum benefit is lesser than other nations, like those in Scandinavia, with public retirement programs, Blanchett said.

“It’s less of a safety net,” he said.

“There’s something to be said that, as a public pension benefit, increasing the minimum benefit for all retirees would strengthen the retirement resiliency for all Americans,” Blanchett said.

That said, policymakers are trying to resolve some of these issues.

For example, 17 states have established so-called auto-IRA programs in a bid to close the coverage gap, according to the Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives.

These programs generally require employers who don’t offer a workplace retirement plan to automatically enroll workers into the state plan and facilitate payroll deduction.

A recent federal law known as Secure 2.0 also expanded aspects of the retirement system. For example, it made more part-time workers eligible to participate in a 401(k) and raised the dollar threshold for employers to cash out balances for departing workers.

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