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Freshmen college enrollment falls; FAFSA failures to blame, experts say

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Fewer high school students pursued a four-year degree this year, new research shows. That’s largely because of last year’s botched rollout of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, experts say.

The number of 18-year-old college freshmen sank 5% this fall compared with last year, with four-year colleges notching the largest declines, according to a new analysis by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

The declines in first-year student enrollment were most significant at four-year colleges that serve low-income students, the report also found. At four-year colleges where large shares of students receive Pell Grants, first-year student enrollment sank more than 10%.

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“It is startling to see such a substantial drop in freshmen, the first decline since the start of the pandemic in 2020 when they plunged nearly 10%,” Doug Shapiro, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s executive director, said in a statement.

‘Aftermath of the FAFSA fiasco’

Experts had warned that problems with the new FAFSA would result in fewer students applying for financial aid and fewer students enrolling in college.

“Freshman enrollment dropped by a dramatic 5% this fall in the aftermath of the FAFSA fiasco, reversing previous gains,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Last year, 45% of college applicants reported frustrations with the process and 12% said they ultimately chose a community college, technical school or other alternative because of their FAFSA experience, according to Jenzabar/Spark451′s college-bound student survey. The higher education marketing firm polled more than 5,400 recent high school graduates in September.

Submitting a FAFSA is one of the best predictors of whether a high school senior will go on to college, according to the National College Attainment Network. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to enroll in college directly after high school, according to an NCAN study of 2013 data. 

“FAFSA completion and college enrollment move in the same direction — that relationship is pretty consistent,” said Bill DeBaun, NCAN’s senior director.

“We remain committed to helping students get the financial aid they need to pursue a college education and are thankful for the guidance counselors, financial aid professionals and the network of organizations and individuals who dedicated tremendous amounts of time, energy, and expertise to navigate this year’s college and financial aid application processes,” a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Education said.

The Supreme Court‘s ruling against affirmative action was also “a likely contributing factor,” Kantrowitz said.

The affirmative action ban may have especially impacted the enrollment of underrepresented minority students at the most selective colleges, he said.

Although freshmen enrollment declined across all racial groups, at highly selective colleges the differences were striking: White enrollment fell by 5% and Black enrollment plummeted 16.9%, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center found.

Some of these students may have enrolled in Historically Black Colleges and Universities or minority serving institutions, Kantrowitz said, “others may have shifted enrollment to community colleges, which are lower cost, due to delays in receiving financial aid offers.”

‘This is not a blip’

Because the FAFSA serves as the gateway to all federal money, including loans, work-study and grants, FAFSA completion rates are also an indicator of students’ intent to re-enroll, particularly among low-income undergraduates, according to DeBaun.

But even though the 2025-26 FAFSA opened ahead of schedule with only minor issues, it will be harder to reach students from the Class of 2024 who opted out of college this year. “When you miss the immediate transition, it does decrease the likelihood of the enrollment down the line,” DeBaun said.

And, increasingly, rising college costs and ballooning student debt balances are causing more students to question college’s return on investment, DeBaun said. “This is not a blip, this is a big setback.”

More students qualify for federal aid

The new Free Application for Federal Student Aid was meant to improve access by expanding Pell Grant eligibility to provide more financial support to low- and middle-income families.

As a result of changes to the financial aid application, more students now qualify for a Pell Grant, a type of aid awarded solely based on financial need.

Recent data from the Department of Education shows that 5% more students are receiving federal financial aid and more than 13% more students are on track to receive Pell Grants this year.

But overall, the number of Pell Grant recipients is down significantly. In fact, the number of Pell Grant recipients peaked over a decade ago, when 9.4 million students were awarded grants in the 2011-12 academic year, and sank 32% to 6.4 million in 2023-24, according to the College Board, which tracks trends in college pricing and student aid.

Also, those grants have not kept up with the rising cost of a four-year degree. Currently, the maximum Pell Grant award rose to $7,395 — after notching a $500 increase in the 2023-34 academic year.

Meanwhile, tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, the College Board found.

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Personal Finance

Watch for these pitfalls before donating crypto to charity

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If you’re planning a gift to charity this holiday season, you could score a tax break by donating cryptocurrency. But there are some key things to know before making the transfer, experts say.

In 2024, there’s been a significant jump in crypto gifts to charity, according to Fidelity Charitable, which has accepted $688 million in crypto donations — mostly in bitcoin — through Nov. 19. By comparison, the public charity received $49 million in digital currency in all of 2023.

Donating crypto to charity is similar to giving other types of property. But “there are some pitfalls,” said certified financial planner Juan Ros, a partner at Forum Financial Management in Thousand Oaks, California. 

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Donate ‘the most highly appreciated asset’

Since 2018, the higher standard deduction has made it harder to claim itemized tax breaks for charitable gifts, medical expenses, state and local taxes, among others. 

But if you itemize and can claim the charitable deduction, it’s generally better to donate profitable investments, such as cryptocurrency, rather than cash.

By donating crypto to charity, you can bypass capital gains taxes and claim a deduction based on its fair market value, assuming you’ve owned it for more than one year. The tax break has a cap of 30% of your adjusted gross income for public charities.

It’s an attractive strategy for crypto investors because bitcoin and other coins could be “the most highly appreciated asset in their portfolio,” said Kyle Casserino, vice president and charitable planning consultant for Fidelity Charitable.

The price of bitcoin was around $96,000 on Dec. 4, up by nearly 120% year-to-date, according to Coin Metrics.

However, donating crypto can be more complicated than assets like stock, experts say.

Some charities don’t accept crypto

“Not every charity is willing or able to accept gifts of crypto,” so you’ll need to contact the organization first, Ros said.   

As of January, 56% of the biggest U.S. charities accepted cryptocurrency donations, according to The Giving Block, a platform for digital currency gifts and fundraising. That’s up from 49% the previous year.  

However, most large donor-advised funds are “well-equipped” to accept digital currency, Ros said.

Donor-advised funds are investment accounts that work like a charitable checkbook. The donor receives an upfront deduction and can transfer funds to eligible nonprofit organizations later. 

Typically, the donor-advised fund sells the crypto and reinvests the proceeds. But some allow investors to continue holding digital assets in the fund.

You may need a ‘qualified appraisal’

When you give a profitable investment owned for more than one year, your deduction is based on the fair market value of the asset.

That’s easy for publicly traded stock, but the IRS requires added documentation for digital assets worth more than $5,000, according to Andrew Gordon, a tax attorney, certified public accountant and president of Gordon Law Group.

“You’ve got to be able to support that deduction through the qualified appraisal,” which has specific IRS requirements, he said.

For example, you must file Form 8283 with your tax return and keep a copy of the appraisal. But if the donated assets exceed $500,000, you must include the appraisal with your return, according to the IRS.

You need to follow the IRS appraisal criteria “to the letter,” Ros explained. Otherwise, you could put your charitable deduction at risk in the event of an audit.

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Brain rot was word of the year, dynamic pricing was also a contender

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Oxford University Press may have crowned “brain rot” the word of the year, but “dynamic pricing” was also a top contender.

Originally coined by economists in the late 1920s, dynamic pricing refers to “the practice of varying the price for a product or service to reflect changing market conditions. In particular, the charging of a higher price at a time of greater demand,” the publishing house said on its site.

Many people associate it with shifting airline ticket prices or how ride-hailing service Uber adjusts fares at busy times. However, there was heightened awareness — and controversy — around the practice in 2024, especially when it came to buying highly sought-after event tickets.

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“In some high-profile cases, dynamic pricing was used in setting prices for concert tickets, resulting in fans (often reluctantly) paying very high prices to see their favourite artists. In some cases, fans were in a virtual queue for hours before realizing how much they would be asked to pay, leading to questions about the transparency of dynamic pricing practices, as well as value for money,” Oxford said.

How and when artists use dynamic pricing

Ticketmaster is under investigation in the U.K. for its recent use of dynamic pricing in sales of next year’s reunion concerts from Britpop band Oasis.

Many Oasis fans took to social media to complain that they ended up paying more than double the face value of the ticket without warning. The band said it would abandon the practice for the North American leg of its tour.

Taylor Swift performs at Scottish Gas Murrayfield Stadium on June 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. Swift’s Eras World Tour plays 15 dates across Scotland, Wales and England in June and August.

Gareth Cattermole/tas24 | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Taylor Swift reportedly refused to dynamically price her Eras Tour tickets because “she didn’t want to do that to her fans,” Jay Marciano, chairman and CEO of AEG Presents, which promoted the event, told HITS Daily Double in October.

Also in an interview this fall, Robert Smith, the lead vocalist and guitarist for the Cure, said dynamic pricing is “driven by greed,” calling the practice a “scam.”

How and when dynamic pricing is used is at the discretion of the artist or management, according to Andrew Mall, an associate professor of music at Northeastern University — and it was often determined under the radar.

However, with so many recent high-profile tours, “for sure, dynamic pricing has surged to the forefront of concert goers’ attention,” he said.

‘A capitalist inevitability’

“We all know that if you are looking for an Uber or Lyft, there are certain times of night when it’s more expensive. The market seems to have adapted to that,” said Joe Bennett, a forensic musicologist at Berklee College of Music. “But concert tickets were generally a fixed price.”

Slowly, however, a change was taking hold.

Throughout the 21st century, revenue from recorded music has gone down while revenue from live music events has gone up. By the mid-2000s, concerts “provided a larger source of income for performers than record sales or publishing royalties,” economist Alan Krueger wrote in a paper on the economic issues and trends in the rock and roll industry. Live music industry revenue jumped 25% in 2023 alone, according to data from Statista.

In 2011, Ticketmaster first introduced an early version of dynamic ticket pricing, which is now the standard for live music ticketing sales. In more recent years, “ticket sales went crazy” driven by post-pandemic pent-up demand and a surge in mega-star stadium tours, Bennett said.

“You can see why it’s tempting,” he said. “The live music industry is constantly leaving money on the table that fans would pay. Dynamic pricing is sort of a capitalist inevitability given the forces at play, but I don’t want to live in a world where it costs a $1,000 for my daughter to see Taylor Swift.”

Still, it’s now common for ticket-selling platforms to charge more per ticket depending on demand for the event at any given time — whether consumers like it or not.

“It’s not very popular, as you might imagine,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst. “Businesses and musicians are trying to see what the market will bear, and it makes things really difficult for the consumer.”

Chalk it up to ‘funflation’

Despite complaints, consumers prove that they have a high tolerance for the increasing price tags of live events, also known as “funflation.” Younger adults, particularly Generation Z and millennials, have demonstrated they would even go into debt to pursue some of these experiences, recent reports show.

Nearly two out of five Gen Z and millennial travelers have spent up to $5,000 on tickets alone for destination live events, one recent study from Bread Financial found.

“Knowing your limits is important,” Schulz said. “As much as you might love your favorite musician, there should be a limit to how much debt you are willing to go into for them.”

Why dynamic pricing won’t go away

“Consumers don’t like the idea of dynamic pricing, but there is a renewed ‘YOLO’ [you only live once] attitude over the past few years since the pandemic and, increasingly, that drives a devil-may-care approach when it comes to spending on discretionary experiences,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Even with household budgets strained, “you get to a point where there are just some experiences where consumers draw the line and say, that’s not something I’m willing to give up,” he said.

Live Nation CEO: Live entertainment is a very scarce commodity

Ticket sellers are well aware of this mentality, too.

“Our research consistently tells us that concerts are a top priority for discretionary spending, and one of the last experiences fans will cut back on,” Live Nation said in a quarterly earnings call in 2023. 

But as consumers continue to spare no expense to see their favorite artist or group, that means that means dynamic pricing is here to stay, at least for now.

“The live music sector has been leaning into this attitude for a long time,” Northeastern University’s Mall said.

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Student loan borrowers may find bankruptcy harder under Trump

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More federal student loan borrowers have been able to get their debt discharged in bankruptcy over the last few years, thanks to new guidance that the Biden administration has issued.

That more lenient policy may be at risk when President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House in January, experts say.

Here’s what borrowers need to know.

‘A tightening in the approach of relief’

When the Trump administration takes over, “I suspect we’ll see a tightening in the approach of the relief,” said Malissa Giles, a consumer bankruptcy attorney in Virginia.

As a result, Giles said she plans to be “a little more conservative” with the clients she recommends pursue bankruptcy for their student debt.

“We’re probably not filing those cases that are a bigger ask right now,” Giles said. “I don’t want people to spend their money on it, when it may not come through.”

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Higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz also expects to see a reversal in the approach.

“The Trump Administration is likely to rescind this guidance,” Kantrowitz said, referring to the Biden administration’s looser rules for student loan borrowers in bankruptcy.

Latife Neu, a bankruptcy lawyer in Seattle, said she wasn’t sure bankruptcy would necessarily become more difficult for student loan borrowers under Trump.

“There is a surprising amount of consensus across the political spectrum,” Neu said, that the higher bar for student loan borrowers to get their debt discharged in bankruptcy is “a defective policy.”

The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a CNBC’s request for comment .

How bankruptcy got easier for student loan borrowers

In the fall of 2022, the U.S. Department of Education and the U.S. Department of Justice released updated bankruptcy guidelines to make it easier for struggling borrowers to get their student loans erased in court.

Previously, it was difficult, if not impossible, for people to part with their education debt in a normal bankruptcy proceeding.

In the 1970s, lawmakers added a stipulation that student loan borrowers needed to wait at least five years after they began repayment to file for bankruptcy. Policymakers and pundits had raised concerns that students would rack up a bunch of debt and then try to get rid of it after graduation.

The waiting period was upped to seven years in 1990. The rules changed yet again almost a decade later, so that only people who proved that their student debt posed an “undue hardship” could discharge it.

Congress, however, never spelled out what that term means, and lawyers and advocates say the uncertainty led to unfairness in the courts.

The Biden administration’s recent approach treats student loans more like other types of debt in bankruptcy court, experts say. Borrowers are able to fill out a 15-page form, detailing their financial struggles and making their case for a mulligan.

In the first 10 months of the new policy, student loan borrowers filed more than 630 bankruptcy cases, a “significant increase” from recent years, the Biden administration said in a statement at the time.

“The vast majority of borrowers seeking discharge have received full or partial discharges,” it said.

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