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From $1 trillion spending to F-35s, U.S.-Saudi pledges aren’t done deals yet

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U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman during an arrival ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 18, 2025.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump trumpeted Saudi Arabia’s $1 trillion investment pledge in the States and the potential sale of American fighter jets to Riyadh, but experts say there are lingering doubts over whether such deals will materialize.

Trump rolled out the red carpet for Saudi’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as he arrived in Washington on Tuesday for talks ranging from security to civil nuclear energy partnerships. The leaders signed a defense cooperation pact and held discussions about the potential sale of American F-35 fighter jets to the kingdom.

The U.S. visit by Mohammed bin Salman (or MBS, as he’s widely known) was not without controversy as it was the first time he had visited the States since the killing of Saudi critic and journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

U.S. intelligence determined that the crown prince had approved the operation that led to Khashoggi’s death in a Saudi consulate in Istanbul, but Riyadh denied any involvement in the murder.

Undeterred by global outrage over the death of Khashoggi, and question marks over Saudi Arabia’s rehabilitation and invitation to the White House, Trump and MBS said they had “finalized a series of landmark agreements that deepen the U.S.-Saudi strategic partnership.”

Among them, the White House said in a statement, was Saudi’s pledge to increase the $600 billion worth of investments in the U.S. that it made in May, to $1 trillion. The White House said the bump reflected “deepening trust and momentum for the United States under President Trump’s leadership.”

No further detail was given as to a time-scale around that trillion-dollar investment, however.

US President Donald Trump meets with Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC on Nov. 18, 2025.

Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images

A $1 trillion investment is equal to Saudi Arabia’s annual economic output in 2023 (of $1.07 trillion) and economists questioned whether that level of investment would, or could, materialize any time soon.

“These sort of pledges have become regular features of the international landscape, even when, as in the case of the EU [and it’s pledged investment in the U.S. as part of a trade deal] there’s absolutely no enforcement mechanism available,” Paul Donovan, chief economist at GBS Global Wealth Management, noted Wednesday.

“To put the Saudi pledge in context, that is the equivalent of almost an entire year’s GDP [gross domestic product] for the kingdom. The pledge may not therefore be honored in the near term,” he cautioned.

F-35s

In addition to the investment pledges, Trump and MBS discussed the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, with the kingdom reportedly looking to buy as many as 48 of the stealth fighter jets in what would be a multibillion-dollar deal.

The president “approved a major defense sale package, including future F-35 deliveries, which strengthens the U.S. defense industrial base and ensures Saudi Arabia continues to buy American,” the White House said. But no details were given on the number of planes sold, or any timeframe for their supply.

U.S. Markets Edition: F-35 deal in focus

Such a sale could prove controversial with U.S. lawmakers whose sympathies and allegiance has traditionally leant toward Israel, the U.S.’ main and longstanding ally in the Middle East.

Israel is currently the only country in the Middle East to have F-35s and any sale of such advanced stealth technology to Saudi Arabia could be seen as risky, having the potential to shift military and power dynamics in the fractious region. For its part, the IDF is reportedly unhappy at the prospect of F-35 deal with Saudi Arabia, warning that Israel’s air superiority in the region would be jeapardized.

Trump shrugged off those concerns, telling reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday that: “We’ll be selling F-35s,” although he alluded to Israel’s discontent, noting: “This [Saudi Arabia] is a great ally, and Israel is a great ally.”

“I know they’d like you to get planes of reduced calibre, but as far as I’m concerned, I think they are both at a level where they should get top of the line,” he added.

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35 fighter jet touches down at the former Roosevelt Roads military base in Ceiba, Puerto Rico, September 30, 2025.

Ricardo Arduengo | Reuters

Analysts say giving Saudi Arabia F-35s before it has signed the Abraham Accords thereby normalizing relations with Israel, would be a reward too far for Riyadh.

“Saudi Arabia is an important U.S. security partner, and increasing bilateral defense cooperation can further common interests and support efforts to build a regional security architecture that more effectively deters and defeats aggression,” Bradley Bowman, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in analysis.

“However, before providing Riyadh with the F-35, Washington should address concerns related to Riyadh’s relationship with China, follow the law regarding Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge, and demand that Saudi Arabia first normalize relations with Israel.”

‘Long road’ to supply

Lingering and deep-seated differences over a two-state solution could give the White House reasons to hesitate over the supply of F-35s to Saudi Arabia, analysts noted.

“It’s one thing to announce big deals. It’s one thing to announce that Saudi Arabia will be permitted to buy the F 35 this advanced stealth fighter, but it’s another thing to actually have planes touching down and taking off from Saudi runways,” Paul Musgrave, associate professor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told CNBC Wednesday.

“And between here and there, there’s a lot of details. And when you start to get into the details about who’s going to transfer what technology at what point, that’s where Congress — which is, I think fair to say, a little bit more friendly toward Israel than to towards Saudi Arabia — is going to have some input.”

'Long road' before U.S.-Saudi deals come to fruition, professor says

“Now, that’s not to say that this deal is not going to go through because, of course, Israel also has suffered some reverses in its public standing, but there is going to be, I think probably, a decently long road between where we are and where we get to,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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