June O’Connell, founder and director at Irish gin and whiskey-makers Skellig Six18 Distillery, said U.S. tariffs have hit her business hard this year.
Paul McCarthy | Skellig Six18 Distillery
Along the “last road in Ireland,” on the country’s rugged west coast, June O’Connell’s business Skellig Six18 makes gin and whiskey — a time-intensive process guided by the wind, rain and cool temperatures that roll in year-round off the Atlantic.
America was a natural target market once their first spirits were ready to sell in 2019, according to O’Connell, given its strong familiarity with Ireland and big appetite for premium drinks. As an independent supplier, negotiations with distributors, marketers and retailers took more than a year, and her first products left County Kerry in November 2023 for a U.S. launch in early 2024.
Then the political tide started turning in the White House.
“Once it became clear which way things were heading, people were trying to get a lot of product stateside ahead of tariffs. We did do some of that, but now warehouses are full, importers are saying don’t send any more, and it’s only the big customers who are getting priority,” O’Connell told CNBC.
Bottles of Irish whiskey at a store in Corte Madera, California. The U.S. is a key market for EU-made spirits, accounting for 20-40% of exports for most producers.
Since the start of the year, President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff announcements have been roiling businesses of all sizes.
The European Union in particular has drawn Trump’s ire for its 198 billion euro ($231 billion) trade surplus in goods with the U.S.
He argues tariffs are needed to create a more balanced relationship; EU officials, however, argue that trade is more even across goods, services and investments, and have pledged to increase oil and gas purchases to narrow the gap.
The Trump administration has already imposed a 10% baseline duty on EU imports, along with higher rates for automotives and metals.
The fact that the U.K.’s trade deal with the U.S. maintained a 10% baseline tariff with some sector exemptions has led many to believe that this could be Europe’s best hope. The Financial Times reported Friday that Trump is now taking a harder line in EU negotiations and pushing for minimum tariffs of 15-20%, citing people briefed on the talks. CNBC has not independently confirmed the report.
The EU’s food and drink trade with the U.S. is worth almost 30 billion euros, and trade group FoodDrinkEurope warned this week that any escalation in tariffs — which are generally paid by the importer — would hit European producers and farmers, while limiting choice and driving up costs for U.S. consumers.
Even the 10% U.S. import tariff imposed in April has been a blow to business, Skellig Six18’s O’Connell said, with the final price impact on the consumer being much higher once additional costs have been passed up the supply chain.
“In terms of pricing, 30% [tariffs] would be untenable. The whole situation definitely stifles your ambition stateside,” she added.
For Franck Choisne, president of French distillery Combier, a 10% tariff has been just about manageable. Founded in 1834, Combier is best known for making the liqueur triple sec – used in margarita cocktails – and the U.S. represents around 25% of its overall sales.
France’s Distillerie Combier, which produces spirits including triple sec. President Franck Choisne says a 30% U.S. tariff could halve sales to the market.
However, Choisne notes that the 10% tariff comes on top of a hit from the currency market. A weaker U.S. dollar this year has made it more expensive for the U.S. to import foreign goods, an additional dampener on demand.
A 30% tariff, plus exchange rate effects, would mean an overall rate of 45-50% is reflected in final consumer prices, he said, a level that could halve his company’s U.S. sales.
“We understand President Trump wants a better balance between imports and exports, but at that 30% level then of course the EU will respond, trade will be hit and it will be a lose-lose situation,” he said.
U.S. exporters of products such as bourbon would also suffer, a factor Choisne said kept him optimistic that the two sides will eventually negotiate a zero-tariff deal for the spirits industry.
In Italy’s Lombardy countryside, more than half a million huge wheels of Grana Padano cheese roll off the supply lines of family-run business Zanetti each year. The company, which also makes parmesan and other hard cheeses, exports over 70% of its products, and the U.S. accounts for 15% of total turnover.
A shopkeeper holds a Grana Padano Italian cheese inside a supermarket on April 17, 2025 in Turin, Italy.
Stefano Guidi | Getty Images News | Getty Images
According to its president and CEO Attilio Zenetti, the volatility created by tariffs this year has been unlike any before, with contradictory announcements generating a huge amount of additional admin.
“It gives a lot of uncertainty and does not allow us to organise a real strategy,” he said, bar trying to ship as many products as possible before higher rates potentially come into effect.
Zenetti said that the weaker dollar plus tariffs had already increased the company’s U.S. retail prices by 25%. “Further increases would of course directly reflect again on U.S. wholesale and retail prices and we fear that this will affect volumes,” he said.
Supply chain shifts
For some businesses, mitigating the tariff impact has meant looking at new supply chain options.
Alex Altmann, partner at accounting firm Lubbock Fine and VP of the British Chamber of Commerce in Germany, said that some EU manufacturers were considering moving their assembly lines to the U.K. to try to take advantage of its existing 10% agreement. In doing so, they must navigate the complexity of “rules of origin” that determine the source of a product for tax purposes.
Altmann gave the example of a German kitchen appliance manufacturer with strong demand in the U.S. The company sources most of its materials cheaply from Asia and imports them into the EU at a low tariff rate. It is not too difficult to then shift the final assembly process to a factory in the U.K., he said, to benefit from a 10% — instead of a potential 30% — tariff on products as they enters the U.S.
“We might not be facing these big tariff differences for a long time, but even if you cash in for a few months it’s quite significant money,” he added.
Elsewhere, big corporations are considering shifting at least some manufacturing to the U.S. German industrial giant Siemens, for example, told CNBC it had taken steps to localize manufacturing, and engineering group Bosch likewise said it was prioritizing a local-for-local model as it looks to expand its North America business.
However, for Skellig Six18’s O’Connell, moving production is not possible. That’s because the production of “origin protected” items — like an Irish whiskey, Italian parma ham or French champagne — can’t be moved elsewhere.
Instead, O’Connell’s is focusing on new potential markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America, but noted the difficulty of doing so in places without solid existing whiskey sales. Combier distillery’s Franck Choisne, meanwhile, pointed out that becoming established somewhere new is resource-intensive, costly and could take years. In other words, it’s no easy fix for a decline in U.S. sales.
“At times like this I just try to remember that I’m in an industry that’s nearly 700 years old, requires patience and reminds you that things don’t last forever,” O’Connell said. “You just have to keep controlling the controllables.”
On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.
How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister
Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.
If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.
Why No Election Was Required
A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.
This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.
The King’s Constitutional Role
After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.
Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.
Could an Election Still Happen?
Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.
In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.
What This Means for the UK
The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.
Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.
On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.
According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.
The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.
For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.
The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.
The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.
Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.
For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.