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GDP surges by 2.8%, giving hope for rate cuts in September

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With GDP increasing 2.8% annually, this signals a strong economy.  (iStock )

As a welcome surprise, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.8% annually in the second quarter, an advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis found. Generally, a GDP between 2% and 3% signifies a strong U.S. economy, so this is good news for the overall economic outlook. In the first quarter, GDP increased by just 1.4%.

As the GDP increases and the economy evens out, it’s more likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. This sudden jump in economic growth is signaling that rate cuts may be on the horizon.

“GDP exceeded expectations in the second quarter, restoring faith that the economy is easing into a sustainable level of growth,” America’s Credit Unions Deputy Chief Economist Curt Long said in a statement.”Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials confirm that a rate cut is squarely in view. However, such action is not needed to ward off a recession but is rather a response to the moderation in inflation.”

The increase in real GDP can largely be attributed to an increase in consumer spending, as well as private inventory investments and nonresidential fixed investments.

Consumer spending increased across both the service and goods industries. Health care was one of the higher spend categories in the service industry, along with housing and recreation services. As for goods, motor vehicles and parts contributed most to the GDP growth. Furnishings, household equipment, gasoline and other energy goods also contributed.

“Both an increase in consumer spending on durable goods and business spending on inventories accounted for a substantial part of last quarter’s expansion,” said Mike Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) senior vice president and chief economist.

“Weaker net exports reflect a global economy that continues to operate in a lower gear as well as a stronger dollar,” Frantantoni said. “While top line growth is above the pace needed to keep the unemployment rate from rising further, the components do suggest the economy may slow from here.” 

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INFLATION IS WHY MANY AMERICANS PLAN TO DELAY RETIREMENT: SURVEY

Fed could cut interest rates in September

Consumers have been waiting for federal funds rate cuts that could lower interest rates on products such as mortgages, student loans and other loans. At the beginning of the year, consumers were told there would be an estimated six rate cuts by the end of the year, but that has grown increasingly unlikely.

Thanks to a higher-than-expected GDP report, economists believe September will be the first time the Federal Reserve cuts rates. These experts estimate there’s a 99.8% chance rates will be cut in September.

There’s also a high chance there will be a few more rate cuts by the end of the year. Experts say there’s a 97.4% chance of at least two more cuts by the end of December.

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83% OF AMERICANS CONSIDER HOMEOWNERSHIP AN ESSENTIAL LIFE MILESTONE: SURVEY

Recession fears still linger for many Americans

Despite signs that the economy is heading in the right direction, there are still lingering fears that a recession is here or at least on the horizon. About three in five people believe the U.S. is currently in a recession, according to research from Affirm.

The survey asked 2,000 Americans why they lacked confidence in the current economy. Unsurprisingly, inflation and rising costs were the most common reason (68%) consumers believe the U.S. is in a recession. Another 50% think the U.S. is in the midst of a recession because of family members and friends constantly complaining about money problems.

Most respondents believe the recession started about 15 months ago, and don’t expect it to end anytime soon. Consumers believe the economy won’t officially start to recover until at least July 2025. Again, inflation is largely to blame for why these respondents believe there’s currently a recession.

About 68% of Americans said inflation is negatively affecting their future financial plans, making it difficult for them to save for bigger purchases.

“With confidence in the U.S. economy at a low point, consumers are urgently seeking ways to feel in control of their finances,” said Vishal Kapoor, Affirm senior vice president of product. “Amidst these levels of uncertainty and doubt, we believe that the antidote to the current ‘vibecession’ is greater choice and transparency in how people manage their finances.”

In an attempt to stay in control of their finances, 54% of Americans have or would consider buy now, pay later options. Consumers surveyed noted that BNPL helps them better manage their day-to-day budget.

Personal loans with low interest rates are also strong options for consumers who need financing with low monthly payments. When it comes to personal loan shopping, Credible can do the heavy lifting for you. With the click of a button, you can view multiple lenders, rates, and terms in one spot.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY TOP CONCERN FOR YOUNGER VOTERS THIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: SURVEY

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

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Finance

Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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