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Generative AI expected to grow, not shrink, headcount, say polls from major firms

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While discourse often centers around the risk of AI eliminating jobs, recent data shows that at least some leaders expect they will actually be growing their headcount as they implement the technology in their organizations. 

A recent Deloitte poll of 2,000 director-to-C-suite level professionals found, among other data points, that 39% of respondents predict they will increase headcount to implement their generative AI strategies at least slightly, versus the 22% who say they will expect to reduce headcount. 

These figures differ based on respondents’ self-reported expertise with AI, with those who have more expertise generally expecting more headcount changes, either positively or negatively. Of those who say they are very proficient with AI, 45% predict their organization’s headcount will increase and 23% say it will decrease. Over half (57%) of those with the least expertise, meanwhile, generally expected things to remain the same; in contrast, only 28% of those with high reported expertise believe the same. 

AI hiring

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These predictions are part of the overall anticipation that generative AI will change talent strategies. The poll found that three-quarters (75%) of the respondents expect this shift to happen within two years. Only 16% thought it would take longer than that, and 18% say they are making such changes now. As for what changes are expected, the most commonly cited at 48% was “redesigning work processes to take advantage of generative AI,” followed by “designing and implementing upskilling and reskilling strategies” at 47%. 

“These survey results suggest a strong need for more attention paid to generative AI’s talent impacts,” said the Deloitte report. “In the near term, AI education and fluency will be especially important to fostering adoption and overcoming initial resistance to change. In the longer term, upskilling or reskilling and redesigning work processes and career paths will likely be essential for capturing generative AI’s full value and positioning workers for future success.”

This data is similar to that found in another recent survey from EY, which polled more than 250 leaders in the technology industry. It found that half of technology business leaders (50%) say they anticipate both layoffs and hiring at their company in the next six months as a result of AI adoption. More granularly, the data shows that 20% of the tech leaders surveyed said they anticipate layoffs and 27% said they anticipate hiring over the next six months. However, three out of five technology leaders (61%) say emerging technology has made it more challenging for their company to source top technology talent.

They are also working hard on upskilling talent. Over three in four technology business leaders (76%) say they have implemented internal technical certification to help employees keep pace with rapidly changing GenAI. Further, more than half (51%) say they have put external technical certification in place at their company to help keep pace with rapidly changing GenAI. Finally, nearly two-thirds of technology business leaders (64%) say their company has put internal development programs in place to help employees keep pace with rapidly changing GenAI.

“One thing is certain: Companies are reshaping their workforce to be more AI savvy,” said EY technology, media and telecom AI leader Vamsi Duvvuri. “With this transition, we can anticipate a continuous cycle of strategic workforce realignment, characterized by simultaneous layoffs and hiring, and not necessarily in equal volumes. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Employees and companies alike continue to show enthusiasm around AI, specifically when it comes to opportunities to scale and compete more effectively in the marketplace.”

This upskilling, reskilling and shifts to talent strategy are due at least in part to the technical skills and knowledge needed to successfully implement generative AI solutions in an organization. Getting value from generative AI is not always easy. Indeed, another poll from RSM found that while many are using AI in their workplace, a majority say implementing the technology has been harder than expected. 

The poll, which included 510 middle-market decision makers in the U.S. and Canada, indicated a great deal of enthusiasm for AI. It found 78% of middle-market organizations are adopting AI, with 77% adopting generative AI in particular. With this enthusiasm has come investment: 89% of executive respondents reported their organizations plan to boost their budgets around AI technologies and 74% are focusing their dollars specifically on generative AI. 

Yet, 54% of respondents report that generative AI has been harder to implement than they expected. Further, 67% say they need outside help to get the most out of their generative AI solutions. 

“AI and generative AI are making significant impacts to our industry — perhaps more than any previous technology,” said Sergio de la Fe, enterprise digital leader and partner with RSM. “Our survey underscores the necessity for middle-market organizations to develop a comprehensive AI strategy that encompasses the entire value chain. Considering the complexity of AI technologies, it’s no surprise that roughly two-thirds (67%) of middle-market leaders surveyed recognize the need for external assistance to fully capitalize on the advantages of their selected AI solutions.” 

Concerns

All three surveys named largely similar concerns regarding AI that give pause to even enthusiastic adopters. The concerns include opacity of the models and their decision-making process, outputs that may not be entirely trustworthy, potential data leaks and cybersecurity attacks, as well as ethical and legal considerations. 

Another recent report from CPA.com, though, found accounting leaders are largely unperturbed. It found that 68% of accounting leaders have confidence in their organization’s responsible use of AI. This is in contrast to their subordinates, who aren’t as confident in their leaders: Only 29%  of front-line employees believe their employers have sufficient measures to ensure that AI is used responsibly. 

“Organizations will not be able to enjoy the full benefits of AI if it is not considered a safe and trustworthy tool,” said the CPA.com report. “… Failure to use AI responsibly could result in financial penalties under new regulations as well as reputational damage.”

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Accounting

EV makers win 2-year extension to qualify for tax credits

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The Biden administration gave carmakers a partial reprieve in finalizing electric-vehicle tax credit rules intended to loosen China’s grip on battery materials crucial to the car industry’s future.

Starting in 2025, plug-in cars containing critical minerals from businesses controlled by U.S. geopolitical foes, including China, will be ineligible for up to $7,500 tax credits, the Treasury Department said Friday. Automakers will get an extra two years, however, to shore up sourcing of graphite and other materials considered difficult to trace to their origin.

The rules put finishing touches on President Joe Biden’s push to develop an alternative to China’s preeminent EV and battery supply chains. The administration is imposing stringent sourcing requirements for raw materials and components in order for electric cars to qualify for the tax credits that are a powerful draw for consumers otherwise put off by still-high prices.

“These actions provide a strong signal to automakers that we want to see EVs built here in America with components and critical minerals sourced from the U.S. and our allies and partners,” White House Climate adviser John Podesta said.

The two-year exemption speaks to the challenges automakers have had reducing their reliance on Chinese suppliers of materials such as graphite. The mineral used in battery anodes emerged as a geopolitical flashpoint last year when Beijing placed restrictions on exports, sparking fears of global shortages.

The Biden administration’s rules don’t allow tax breaks for vehicles with batteries containing critical minerals from foreign entities of concern, a term referring to businesses controlled by US geopolitical foes such as China, North Korea, Russia and Iran. Those requirements take effect in 2025, as proposed.

But Biden has given auto and battery manufacturers some flexibility on this front, too. In December, the administration decided to allow materials from foreign subsidiaries of privately owned Chinese companies in non-FEOC countries — such as Australia or Indonesia — to count toward tax credit eligibility. This drew criticism from Western miners and policymakers who want Biden to more aggressively cut China out of the supply chain.

Automakers will now have until 2027 to curb the use of certain difficult-to-trace materials from FEOCs, provided that they submit plans to comply after the two-year transition and it’s approved by the government, the Treasury Department said.

“FEOC exemptions for any battery materials should be temporary,” said Abigail Hunter, the executive director of the Center for Critical Minerals Strategy at SAFE, a Washington think tank. “We need a clear exit strategy, lest we continue our dependencies on adversaries and further undermine the competitiveness of U.S. and allied critical minerals projects.”

The rules release concludes two years of work on requirements that already have reduced the number of EVs eligible for tax credits. About 20 models qualify today, compared to as many as 70 previously. Treasury Department officials said Friday they expect the number of qualifying vehicles to continue to fluctuate as companies adjust their supply chains.

Automakers including Tesla Inc., General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. have lobbied for additional flexibility to meet requirements. A lobby group representing automakers based outside the US praised the additional two years provided for the difficult-to-trace materials.

“It will take time for the global production and sourcing of graphite and other critical minerals needed to produce EVs to match the strict standards required by automakers,” Autos Drive America President Jennifer Safavian said in a statement.

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Oregon senator Ron Wyden demands refunds for TurboTax customers over glitch

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Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, demanded in a letter that Intuit give a refund to Oregonians who, due to a software glitch in the company’s TurboTax tax prep software, were steered toward taking the standard deduction when they would have paid less tax if they’d itemized. The senator said the company had known of this glitch in early April, but didn’t acknowledge it until shortly before the filing deadline.

The glitch, according to the Oregonian, affected about 12,000 people, some of whom reported having to pay hundreds more in tax dollars than they needed to. They were generally using the desktop version of the software, versus the online version.

“Fixing this error will require identifying all affected Oregonians, notifying them, and ensuring they can be made whole,” said the senator. “In part because of TurboTax’s various guarantees and market share, Oregonians who overpaid due to TurboTax’s error likely assumed the software opted them into claiming state standard deduction to minimize their taxes. That assumption was wrong. And because the vast majority of taxpayers understandably dread filing season and avoid thinking about taxes after it ends, many of those affected will not learn on their own that they overpaid. Intuit must act to inform them and help them get the full tax refunds they are entitled to receive.”

The TurboTax logo on a laptop computer in an arranged photograph in Hastings-on-Hudson, New York, U.S., on Friday Sept. 3, 2021. Photographer: Tiffany Hagler-Geard/Bloomberg

Tiffany Hagler-Geard/Bloomberg

An Intuit spokesperson said the company is currently working to resolve the issue, referencing their tax return lifetime guarantee.

“As part of our tax return lifetime guarantee, we are committed to the accuracy of TurboTax tax filers’ tax returns to ensure they receive the maximum refund possible. We are quickly working to resolve an issue impacting a small number of customers and actively engaging with those filers impacted to ensure their returns are correct and that they receive the maximum refund they are owed,” said the spokesperson.

The senator has also asked Intuit for an explanation of how this glitch happened in the first place, as well as an approximate timeline for the steps it took once it became aware of it. He has also asked for a count of precisely how many people were affected, as well as Intuit’s plans for both addressing this problem and what the company will do to prevent it in the future.

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Accounting

On the move: RSM names a client experience leader

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RSM US named its first enterprise client experience leader; the Financial Accounting Foundation is looking for nominees for its Financial Accounting Standards Advisory Council; RKL named a new office managing partner; REDW appointed three new vice presidents; and other firm and personnel news from across the accounting profession.

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