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Retail Sales and Wages Grew in March

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Retail sales grew at a steady pace in March, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.

“As inflation for goods levels off, March’s data demonstrates steady spending by value-focused consumers who continue to benefit from a strong labor market and real wage gains,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “In this highly competitive market, retailers are having to keep prices as low as possible to meet the demand of consumers looking to stretch their family budgets.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.36% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.72% unadjusted year over year in March, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.4% month over month and 2.7% year over year in February, based on the first 28 days in February.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales – excluding restaurants in addition to automobiles and gasoline – was up 0.23% month over month and up 2.92% year over year in March. That compared with increases of 0.27% month over month and 2.99% year over year in February, based on the first 28 days in February.

For the first quarter, total retail sales were up 2.65% year over year and core sales were up 3.12%.

This is the sixth month that the Retail Monitor, which was launched in November, has provided data on monthly retail sales. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

March sales were up in six out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, sporting goods stores and health and personal care stores, and up in five categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

  • Online and other non-store sales were up 2.48% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 15.47% year over year unadjusted.
  • Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.86% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 8.33% year over year unadjusted.
  • Health and personal care stores were up 0.03% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.5% year over year unadjusted.
  • Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.17% month over month and up 4.22% year over year unadjusted.
  • General merchandise stores were up 0.13% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.38% year over year unadjusted.
  • Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.01% month over month and up 2.13% year over year unadjusted.
  • Building and garden supply stores were down 2.13% month over month and down 3.97% year over year unadjusted.
  • Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.46% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 5.28% year over year unadjusted.
  • Electronics and appliance stores were down 2.27% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 5.92% year over year unadjusted.

To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.

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Hardware Rally Diverges From Software Stocks

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Hardware Rally Diverges From Software Stocks

As midyear earnings reports flood Wall Street during the week of July 21, 2026, a sharp performance divergence has emerged within the technology sector. Equity indices reflect robust institutional buying in semiconductor manufacturers, data center infrastructure providers, and specialized power equipment suppliers. Conversely, enterprise Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) equities are facing notable valuation pressure as institutional investors demand clear, high-margin top-line revenue growth to justify elevated price-to-earnings multiples.

The sustained momentum in hardware equities is anchored in massive, multi-billion-dollar capital expenditure budgets allocated by mega-cap technology corporations. Demand for next-generation computing architectures, high-density server hardware, and specialized cooling infrastructure remains unyielding as enterprises globally build out localized computing clusters. Semiconductor foundries and equipment manufacturers continue to report record order backlogs, granting these companies exceptional pricing power and revenue visibility despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

In contrast, the enterprise software segment is navigating a rigorous fundamental reassessment. While software vendors have aggressively integrated automated digital features across their applications, enterprise customers are closely scrutinizing software licensing expenditures. Corporate IT departments are demanding verifiable productivity metrics before expanding user licenses, leading to extended sales cycles for software providers. Firms that fail to demonstrate direct, measurable return on investment are experiencing sharp post-earnings corrections.

For equity portfolio managers, navigating the midyear technology landscape requires strict balance sheet analysis and disciplined stock selection. Investors should focus on hardware leaders with defensible technological moats and enterprise software firms featuring deep workflow integration and proven monetization models. Maintaining a balanced, highly selective exposure protects capital while capturing structural technological growth.

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Hardware vs. Software Divergence: Navigating Midyear 2026 Tech Sector Earnings

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Hardware vs. Software Divergence: Navigating Midyear 2026 Tech Sector Earnings

As the midyear 2026 earnings season accelerates through the week of July 20, the technology sector is displaying a notable operational split between hardware infrastructure providers and enterprise software-as-a-service (SaaS) platforms. Market indices reflect strong institutional demand for companies supplying core computing hardware, advanced power management systems, and specialized optical networking components. Conversely, software providers are facing intense margin scrutiny as Wall Street demands concrete, high-margin revenue growth to justify elevated software valuations.

The sustained outperformance of hardware equities is anchored in ongoing, multi-billion-dollar global capital investments into data center infrastructure, grid capacity expansion, and high-performance chip architecture. Semiconductor foundries and specialized component suppliers have consistently reported robust order backlogs, driven by enterprise commitments to build out secure, localized computing clusters. Investors have rewarded these companies due to their tangible, order-backed revenue visibility and strong pricing power in a constrained supply environment.

On the other hand, the software sector is navigating a transition phase. While enterprise software vendors have heavily invested in integrating automated AI capabilities across their product suites, corporate clients are scrutinizing software licencing costs and requiring clear return-on-investment metrics before expanding enterprise seat licenses. Consequently, software vendors that rely on generic feature upgrades without demonstrable productivity improvements are seeing extended sales cycles and valuation compression during quarterly earnings calls.

For equity investors, navigating the tech market for the remainder of 2026 requires rigorous fundamental analysis focused on capital efficiency and cash flow generation. Strategic focus should be directed toward hardware leaders with unassailable technological moats and enterprise software companies possessing deep workflow integration and proven monetization models. Maintaining a balanced, selective exposure ensures participation in technological growth while hedging against localized valuation corrections.

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Utilities Re-Valuation: How Industrial Power Demand Driven by AI Upgrades Sector Equities

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How Industrial Power Demand Driven by AI Upgrades Sector Equities

Traditionally viewed as defensive, low-growth dividend plays, utility equities are undergoing a remarkable structural re-valuation across major stock exchanges in July 2026. Driven by an unprecedented surge in industrial power requirements—stemming from high-density data centers, advanced domestic manufacturing plants, and widespread electrification initiatives—utility providers are presenting revenue growth profiles historically reserved for growth sectors. This transition has repositioned power and energy infrastructure equities into prime targets for institutional capital.

The driver of this market shift is the long-term contractual nature of commercial energy demand. Tech giants and industrial manufacturers are entering into multi-decade power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utility operators to secure guaranteed baseload power. To meet this demand, utility companies are undertaking massive capital expenditure programs to modernize electrical transmission networks, integrate next-generation nuclear and renewable power facilities, and enhance regional grid resilience. Regulated utility models allow these companies to earn predictable returns on these substantial capital investments.

Furthermore, equity analysts highlight that the sector offers an attractive blend of growth potential and downside protection in a sustained high-interest-rate environment. While elevated capital costs increase borrowing expenses for grid infrastructure upgrades, the sheer volume of new industrial power demand provides strong top-line revenue expansion that offsets debt-servicing expenses. Investors seeking reliable yield combined with structural capital appreciation are increasingly allocating capital to regulated electric utilities and independent power producers.

Moving through the second half of 2026, portfolio managers recommend evaluating utility equities based on regional regulatory environments and capital execution track records. Companies operating in regions with streamlined permitting processes, supportive state regulatory commissions, and direct proximity to expanding industrial corridors are best positioned to deliver superior long-term shareholder value.

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