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Germany was billed as Europe’s growth driver. Now, economists aren’t convinced

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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz addresses the Bundestag during a debate over the 2025 federal budget on September 17, 2025 in Berlin, Germany.

Nadja Wohlleben | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Huge investment pledges and major fiscal changes had bolstered hopes that Germany could give the euro zone economy a much-needed boost, but economists are starting to question if — and when — that will happen.

Germany was a hub of excitement earlier this year, with many politicians, analysts and economists sharing big hopes of an economic rebound — domestically, and across Europe.

It had moved to amend its long-standing debt brake rule, which limits how much debt the government can take on and dictates the size of the federal government’s structural budget deficit. Certain defense and security expenses above a specific threshold are exempt from the debt brake under the new rules.

The country also opted to create a 500 billion euro ($592 billion) infrastructure and climate investment fund.

The shift was considered a potential game-changer at the time, and was widely billed as a way to turn Germany’s sluggish economy around.

The country recorded annual contractions in both 2023 and 2024, with 2025 also off to a muted start. While gross domestic product grew 0.3% in the first quarter, it shrank by 0.3% over the following three months, according to the latest data.

The euro zone economy more broadly is also struggling, posting growth of 0.6% in the first quarter, although this slowed to just 0.1% in the following three months.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Martins Kazaks told CNBC earlier this month that “the big hope lies on Germany” when it comes to fiscal spending boosting the euro zone economy next year.

But it’s looking increasingly unclear whether this will come to fruition.

‘In Germany, it takes time to spend money’

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, told CNBC, that a “major rise” in defense orders and infrastructure investment had started in Germany.

“[But] we are not seeing it strongly in actual output data yet,” he said.

“All in all, everything is progressing as we expected after the big debt brake reform. The actual spending is slower than many of the more excitable pundits had expected. In Germany, it takes time to spend money.”

Meanwhile, Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, flagged a “much higher deficit” in Germany over the coming years as a result of the spending splurge — along with some potentially unforeseen outcomes.

“Something that perhaps has gone a bit unnoticed is that the government is not just raising defence and infrastructure spending, it is also using some of the additional fiscal space to finance other spending,” she said.

This includes, for example, the financing of electricity tax cuts for businesses, but also covering higher pension, healthcare and social benefit costs, Palmas pointed out.

“Things like electricity tax cuts still will have a positive effect on the economy, but the additional spending on healthcare and pensions won’t boost the economy given it reflects mainly rising costs due to demographics,” Palmas noted.

While Palmas said the changes will help Germany’s economy grow in 2026, she warned that the expansion may not be as strong as many economists are anticipating.

A minimal boost?

Major German economic institutes have recently cut their economic projections for the country and now expect growth of just over 1% next year.

The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is expecting the euro zone to grow by 1% in 2026.

Berenberg’s Schmieding calculates that the fiscal stimulus in Germany will add around 0.3 percentage points to the country’s own growth rate, which he says would boost the euro zone economy by 0.1 percentage points.

Palmas, meanwhile, sees Germany’s growth adding around 0.2% to the euro zone’s in 2026.

Beyond Germany, several other factors are set to impact euro zone growth next year. Those include the recent interest rate cuts from the ECB, according to Palmas, as well as strong growth from Spain, which has been boosted by immigration and employment growth.

Why Spain’s economy is booming – and what could derail its growth

“On the other hand, U.S. tariffs are likely to be a small drag on the economy (we think they will subtract around 0.2% from GDP),” she said. “And in France, fiscal tightening will also weigh on growth.”

But Germany’s rebound should have knock-on effects that go beyond just GDP, Schmieding pointed out.

“The transition of Germany from its mini-recession until mid-2024 to significant growth from late 2025 onwards will have modest positive confidence effect on its neighbours. After all, Germany is usually their most important trading partner,” he said.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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