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Global trade outlook for 2025 has ‘deteriorated sharply,’ WTO warns

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Cargo ships and containers at Qingdao port in eastern China’s Shandong province on Dec. 4, 2024.

Stringer | Afp | Getty Images

The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned on Wednesday that the outlook for global trade has “deteriorated sharply” in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs regime.

“The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty,” the WTO said in its latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report out Wednesday.

Based on the tariffs currently in place, and including a 90-day suspension of “reciprocal tariffs,” the volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025, before posting a “modest” recovery of 2.5% in 2026.

The decline is anticipated to be particularly steep in North America, where exports are forecasted to drop by 12.6% this year.

The WTO also warned that “severe downside risks exist,” including the application of “reciprocal” tariffs and a broader spillover of policy uncertainty, “which could lead to an even sharper decline of 1.5% in global goods trade,” particularly hurting export-oriented, least-developed countries.

The recent tariff disturbances follow a strong year for world trade in 2024, during which merchandise trade grew 2.9% and commercial services trade expanded by 6.8%, the WTO said.

The new estimate of a 0.2% decline in world trade for 2025 is nearly three percentage points lower than it would have been under a “low tariff” baseline scenario, the WTO added, and marks a significant reversal from the start of the year when the trade body’s economists expected to see continued trade expansion supported by improving macroeconomic conditions.

“Risks to the forecast include the implementation of the currently suspended reciprocal tariffs by the United States, as well as a broader spillover of trade policy uncertainty beyond U.S.-linked trade relationships,” the WTO said.

“If enacted, reciprocal tariffs would reduce world merchandise trade growth by an additional 0.6 percentage points, posing particular risks for least-developed countries (LDCs), while a spreading of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) would shave off a further 0.8 percentage points. Taken together, the reciprocal tariffs and spreading TPU would lead to a 1.5% decline in world merchandise trade volume in 2025.”

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 2, 2025.

Carlos Barria | Reuters

Trump stunned trading partners and global markets in early April, when he announced a raft of “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries. Beijing was hit the hardest of all, with the U.S. duty on Chinese imports now effectively totaling 145%. China in turn hit back at Washington with retaliatory tariffs of up to 125% on U.S. imports.

Widespread market turbulence following the tariffs announcement prompted a temporary climbdown by Trump, with the president last week announcing that the new duties on imports from most trading partners would be reduced to 10% for 90 days in order to allow for trade negotiations with Washington’s counterparts.

The WTO said in its Wednesday report that the impact of recent trade policy changes is likely to vary sharply from region to region.

In the adjusted forecast, North America now subtracts 1.7 percentage points from global merchandise trade growth in 2025, turning the overall figure negative.

Meanwhile, Asia and Europe continue to contribute positively, but less than in the baseline scenario, with Asia’s input halved to 0.6 percentage points.

The disruption in U.S.-China trade is expected “to trigger significant trade diversion,” the WTO added, raising concerns among third markets about increased competition from China.

“Chinese merchandise exports are projected to rise by 4% to 9% across all regions outside North America as trade is redirected. At the same time, U.S. imports from China are expected to fall sharply in sectors such as textiles, apparel and electrical equipment, creating new export opportunities for other suppliers able to fill the gap,” the trade organization remarked, noting that this could open the door for some least-developed countries to increase their exports to the U.S. market.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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