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Here’s everything to expect when the September jobs report is released Friday

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Attendees at the Albany Job Fair in Latham, New York, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. 

Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty Images

September’s jobs picture is expected to look a lot like August’s — a gradual slowdown in hiring, a modest increase in wages and a labor market that is looking a lot like many policymakers had hoped it would.

Nonfarm payrolls are projected to show growth of 150,000, from 142,000 the month before, with a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. On the wage side, the forecast is for a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.8% increase from a year ago — the annual rate being the same as August.

Should the numbers come in as expected, they would hit close to a sweet spot allowing the Federal Reserve to continue to lower interest rates without a sense of urgency that it could be behind the curve and at risk of causing a recession.

“The jobs market is slowing down and becoming less tight,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. “The balance of power has shifted back to employers and away from employees, and that certainly will alleviate the wage pressure, which has been a key component of inflation. We’ve been team soft-landing for a while, and this is exactly what a soft landing looks like.”

Of course, there’s always the possibility of a substantial upside or downside surprise to the numbers. Then there are the monthly revisions that have been dramatic at times, causing the Labor Department to overcount hiring by more than 800,000 for the 12-month period through March 2024, adding uncertainty to jobs market analysis.

Employment reports will be the biggest equity driver in the short-term: Janus Henderson's Buckley

“While we’re looking at 150,000 jobs added, I would not be surprised if it comes in at 50,000 and I would not be surprised if it comes in at 250,000,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “I don’t think people should get too freaked out either way about this number.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 a.m. While there will still be one more nonfarm payrolls count before the presidential vote next month, the October report is expected to be distorted by the dock workers’ strike as well as Hurricane Helene — making September the last “clean” report before Election Day.

Looking for clues

Still, markets will in fact be watching the report closely.

Specifically, they’ll be looking for indications as to whether the Fed will be able to loosen policy and lower interest rates in a gradual manner more in keeping with prior easing cycles, or will have to repeat the dramatic half percentage point interest rate cut it implemented in September.

At the same meeting where they approved the reduction, policymakers indicated another half percentage point, or 50 basis points, in cuts before the end of 2024 and another full percentage point in 2025. Markets, though, are pricing in a more aggressive schedule.

“A strong number wouldn’t really change their position,” JPMorgan’s Kelly said. “A weak number could tempt them to another 50 basis points.”

However, Kelly said the Fed is more likely to look at the employment picture as a “mosaic” rather than just an individual data point.

The bigger picture

For the past several months, labor market indicators have been trending lower, though far from falling off a cliff. Manufacturing and services sector surveys have pointed to slower hiring, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week characterized the labor market as solid but softening.

Excluding a brief slump at the onset of the Covid pandemic, the last time the monthly hiring rate was the level seen this summer — 3.3% of the labor force in both June and August — was in October 2013 when the unemployment rate was 7.2%, according to Labor Department data.

Job openings also have fallen and pushed the ratio of available positions to unemployed workers down to 1.1 to 1, from 2 to 1 just a couple years ago.

However, a kind of stasis has hit a labor market that not that long ago was wrestling with the “Great Resignation” as workers confident they could find better deals elsewhere left their jobs en masse.

Excluding the pandemic gyrations in 2020, the quits rate hasn’t been lower than its current 1.9% since December 2014, while the separations rate, even including Covid, was last lower than the current 3.1% in December 2012.

“Whatever leverage labor had, [it] has dissipated or just eased as the economy’s normalized,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax consultancy RSM. “So we’re going to have a lot less turnover. We’re seeing it in our business. We’re hearing it from our clients.”

Still, had someone told Brusuelas back during the Covid tumult four years ago that the economy would be adding nearly 150,000 jobs a month now with an unemployment rate in the low 4% range, he said, “I’d have bought you a steak dinner.”

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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