Personal Finance
Here’s the deflation breakdown for October 2024 — in one chart
As inflation has throttled back from pandemic-era highs, consumers have seen prices decline outright for many household items.
This dynamic, known as deflation, generally doesn’t occur on a broad, sustained scale in the U.S. economy: With limited exceptions, businesses are generally loath to lower prices once they’ve increased, economists said.
But some pockets of the economy — largely, prices for physical goods from new cars to appliances, sporting goods, consumer electronics and certain apparel — have deflated over the past year, according to the consumer price index.
“We are seeing [deflation] to some extent,” said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
Largely, prices have pulled back as pandemic-era contortions in supply and demand dynamics unwind, economists said. The U.S. dollar has also been relatively strong against major global currencies, making it cheaper to import goods from overseas.
But supply chains have “normalized” and deflation has “moderated to a pretty significant degree” as a result, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
Where there has been deflation
Prices for some categories — like furniture and bedding, men’s clothing, cosmetics and used cars and trucks — are down from October 2023, but they’ve rebounded somewhat in recent months, according to CPI data.
That said, used cars and trucks should see a resumption of deflation since “wholesale prices have fallen recently, and supply and demand continues to improve in the sector,” Bank of America economists wrote on Monday in a research note.
Energy prices and electronics
Gasoline prices are also “way down,” Zandi said.
They’ve declined more than 12% in the past year, according to CPI data. Drivers paid $3.05 a gallon, on average, at the pump as of Nov. 11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Consumers “could get more relief there because global oil prices are soft,” Zandi said.
That softness may be in anticipation of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies around China, said Zandi. Those may include tariffs of at least 60% on goods imported from China, a nation with a huge appetite for oil. If Trump’s policies were to negatively affect the Chinese economy, they’d also likely dampen China’s oil demand.
Other energy commodities refined from oil have also seen huge price declines. Fuel oil prices, for example, are down over 20% in the past year, a trend that should contribute to lower prices elsewhere such as for airfare, economists said.
Food prices are also generally underpinned by their own unique supply-and-demand dynamics, economists said. Turkey, snacks and bacon are about 4% cheaper than they were a year ago, for example.
Lower energy prices can also take pressure off food prices, as it costs less to transport and distribute food to grocery store shelves.
Consumer electronics have also seen big price declines: Computers, video equipment and smartphones are respectively 5%, 10% and 9% cheaper than they were a year ago, according to CPI data.
But consumers might not experience those lower prices at the store: They may only exist on paper.
That’s due to how the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures inflation for certain consumer goods like electronics, economists said.
Technology continually improves, meaning consumers get more for their money. The BLS treats those quality improvements as a price decline, giving the illusion of falling prices on paper.
Richard Stephen | Istock | Getty Images
As Congress scrambles to avoid a government shutdown, the Senate is also poised to consider another bill that would increase Social Security benefits for some public workers.
But the bill, the Social Security Fairness Act, may undergo changes if some Senators’ efforts to add amendments are successful.
Per the original proposal, the Social Security Fairness Act calls for eliminating Social Security provisions known as the Windfall Elimination Provision, or WEP, and Government Pension Offset, or GPO, that have been in place for decades.
The WEP reduces Social Security benefits for individuals who receive pension or disability benefits from employment where they did not pay Social Security payroll taxes. The GPO reduces Social Security for spouses, widows and widowers who also receive their own government pension income. Together, the provisions affect an estimated 3 million individuals.
The bill has enthusiastic support from organizations representing teachers, firefighters, police and other government workers who are affected by the benefit reductions.
“You shouldn’t penalize people for income outside of a system when you’ve paid into it and earn that benefit,” said John Hatton, vice president of policy and programs at the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association. “It’s been 40 years trying to get this repealed.”
The bill has received overwhelming bipartisan support. The Social Security Fairness Act was passed by the House with a 327 majority in November.
Preliminary Senate votes this week have also shown a strong bipartisan support for moving the proposal forward. On Wednesday, the chamber voted with a 73 majority on a cloture for the motion to proceed. That was followed by a Thursday vote on a motion to proceed that also drew a 73-vote majority.
Experts say the Senate may soon hold a final vote. It could proceed in one of two ways — with amendments that alter the terms of the original bill or with a final vote without any changes.
Amendments may include raising the retirement age
The Social Security Fairness Act would cost an estimated $196 billion over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Those additional costs come as the trust funds Social Security relies on to help pay benefits already face looming depletion dates. Social Security’s trustees have projected the program’s trust fund used to pay retirement benefits may be depleted in nine years, when just 79% of benefits may be payable.
Some senators who oppose the Social Security Fairness Act have expressed concerns about the pressures the additional costs would put on the program.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, who this week voted against moving the current version of the bill forward in the Senate, said this week he plans to propose an amendment to offset those costs by gradually raising the retirement age to 70 while also adjusting for life expectancy. Social Security’s full retirement age — when beneficiaries receive 100% of the benefits they’ve earned — is currently age 67 for individuals born in 1960 or later.
“It is absurd to entertain a proposal that would make Social Security both less fair and financially weaker,” Paul said in a statement. “To undo the damage made by this legislation, my amendment to gradually raise the retirement age to reflect current life expectancies will strengthen Social Security by providing almost $400 billion in savings.”
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As of Friday morning, a total of six amendments to the bill had been introduced, according to Emerson Sprick, associate director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Some amendments call for replacing the full repeal of the WEP and GPO provisions with other changes.
One amendment from Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Joe Manchin, I-West Virginia, would instead put in place a more proportional formula to calculate benefits for affected individuals. That change, inspired by Texas Republican Rep. Jodey Arrington’s Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act, has a lot of support from policy experts and the Bipartisan Policy Center, Sprick said.
Social Security advocacy groups have pushed for larger comprehensive Social Security reform that would use tax increases to pay for making benefits more generous.
“We want to help in making this happen, but our preference was for it to be part of a much larger Social Security reform,” said Dan Adcock, director of government relations and policy at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.
To be sure, if amendments are successfully added to the bill, it would have to go back to the House.
“We’re hoping that that doesn’t come to that, because that could complicate matters, depending on the timing of how what’s going on with the [continuing resolution]” to avoid a government shutdown, Adcock said.
Senate may proceed to final vote on original bill
Much of what happens next rests on Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, who could decide unilaterally not to allow amendments to be considered, according to Sprick.
Alternatively, Schumer could decide to allow for amendments in exchange for limiting the length of time spent on consideration of the bill, he said.
However, Sprick said he doubts Schumer will allow amendments at this point.
“The most likely scenario at this point is that Senator Schumer just runs out the clock, doesn’t allow consideration of any amendments, and they take a final vote either very late tonight or early tomorrow,” Sprick said.
While opponents of the bill may delay a vote, they won’t be able to stop a vote, Hatton said. Moreover, there’s reason to believe the leaders who have voted to advance the bill this week will also vote for it if and when it is put up for a final vote, he said.
“I’m still optimistic that this passes, and it’s more just a matter of when, not if,” Hatton said.
A few years ago, Wes Bellamy, 38, took stock of his investment accounts in preparation to buy a home in Charlottesville, Virginia. It was then that he noticed significant gains in his 401(k).
Although Bellamy, who is the chair of the political science department at Virginia State University, had been saving diligently for nearly a decade and making the most of his employer’s matching program, he said seeing his retirement account balance was “a pleasant surprise and a nice nest egg.”
Since then, his 401(k) balance has continued to grow. “I’m at $980,000 — I’m not at a million yet but I’m close.”
More millennials are 401(k) millionaires
Saving $1 million for retirement used to be considered the gold standard, although these days financial advisors may recommend putting away even more.
Millennial workers are still the most common generation to say they’ll need at least $1 million to retire comfortably, according to a recent report by Bankrate, and, for the first time, a larger share of younger retirement savers are reaching that key savings threshold.
The number of millennials with seven-figure balances has jumped 400% from one year ago, according to the data from Fidelity Investments prepared for CNBC.
Among this group, the number of 401(k) accounts with a balance of $1 million or more rose to about 10,000 as of Sept. 30, up from around 2,000 in the third quarter of 2023, according to Fidelity, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) plans. The financial services firm handles more than 49 million retirement accounts altogether.
Generally, reaching 401(k) millionaire status only comes after decades of consistent contributions, making it a harder milestone for younger workers to achieve.
This year, positive market conditions helped boost those account balances to new highs. The Nasdaq is up 29% year to date, as of Dec. 19, while the S&P 500 notched a 23% gain and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 12%.
“Even shorter-term savers have done well because of significant market gains,” said Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s vice president of thought leadership.
“If we continue to see positive market conditions, we could see not only the overall number of millionaires overall bump up over that threshold but also more millennials,” Shamrell said.
Whether savers benefit more from long-term savings efforts or a favorable investment environment, “the reality is, it’s a blend of both,” financial advisor Jordan Awoye, managing partner of Awoye Capital in New York, said.
Further, millennials — the oldest of whom will be 44 in 2025 — are nearing their peak earning years, he said, “which is making it more enticing to save for retirement.”
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Still, reaching the million-dollar mark “is not everything,” Awoye said.
Heading into a year of potential volatility, those balances will fluctuate, perhaps even dramatically. However, there is still plenty of time before millennial savers will need to access those funds in retirement. “You are likely not touching that money for 20 years. Even if [the market] goes up and down, stick to the script,” Awoye said.
“When you are retirement planning, you have to remember to tie it back to your North Star, which is your goal.”
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Certified financial planner Chelsea Ransom-Cooper, chief financial planning officer of Zenith Wealth Partners in New Jersey, works with mostly millennial clients. She says she often encourages them to contribute more than what’s necessary to get the full employer match — even up to the maximum annual contribution limits for a 401(k) or IRA.
In 2023, only 14% of employees deferred the maximum annual amount into 401(k) plans, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report. But that’s a missed opportunity, Ransom-Cooper said.
In 2025, employees can defer $23,500 into workplace plans, up from $23,000 in 2024. (The IRA contribution limit is $7,000 for 2025, unchanged from 2024.)
At the same time, employer contributions are climbing. Together, the average 401(k) savings rate, including employee deferrals and company contributions, rose to 12.7% in 2023, up from 12.1% the year before, according to the Plan Sponsor Council of America’s annual survey of 401(k) plans.
That’s made a big difference, Ransom-Cooper said. “There’s more money that can go into these accounts outside of the employee contribution, that can be really helpful to push these accounts higher and help people reach their retirement goals.”
While there is always the chance that a market downturn will take a toll on these balances in the year to come, the markets are up more than they are down, Ransom-Cooper said. “They can weather those tougher days in the shorter term.”
“Staying the course and keeping that longer term vision is really helpful,” she said.
Bellamy says his goal is to retire in another 20 years, before reaching 60. “Then, I’ll have another 15, 20 years to live my life freely as I want to.”
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