Personal Finance
Here’s the deflation breakdown for October 2024 — in one chart
As inflation has throttled back from pandemic-era highs, consumers have seen prices decline outright for many household items.
This dynamic, known as deflation, generally doesn’t occur on a broad, sustained scale in the U.S. economy: With limited exceptions, businesses are generally loath to lower prices once they’ve increased, economists said.
But some pockets of the economy — largely, prices for physical goods from new cars to appliances, sporting goods, consumer electronics and certain apparel — have deflated over the past year, according to the consumer price index.
“We are seeing [deflation] to some extent,” said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
Largely, prices have pulled back as pandemic-era contortions in supply and demand dynamics unwind, economists said. The U.S. dollar has also been relatively strong against major global currencies, making it cheaper to import goods from overseas.
But supply chains have “normalized” and deflation has “moderated to a pretty significant degree” as a result, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
Where there has been deflation
Prices for some categories — like furniture and bedding, men’s clothing, cosmetics and used cars and trucks — are down from October 2023, but they’ve rebounded somewhat in recent months, according to CPI data.
That said, used cars and trucks should see a resumption of deflation since “wholesale prices have fallen recently, and supply and demand continues to improve in the sector,” Bank of America economists wrote on Monday in a research note.
Energy prices and electronics
Gasoline prices are also “way down,” Zandi said.
They’ve declined more than 12% in the past year, according to CPI data. Drivers paid $3.05 a gallon, on average, at the pump as of Nov. 11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Consumers “could get more relief there because global oil prices are soft,” Zandi said.
That softness may be in anticipation of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies around China, said Zandi. Those may include tariffs of at least 60% on goods imported from China, a nation with a huge appetite for oil. If Trump’s policies were to negatively affect the Chinese economy, they’d also likely dampen China’s oil demand.
Other energy commodities refined from oil have also seen huge price declines. Fuel oil prices, for example, are down over 20% in the past year, a trend that should contribute to lower prices elsewhere such as for airfare, economists said.
Food prices are also generally underpinned by their own unique supply-and-demand dynamics, economists said. Turkey, snacks and bacon are about 4% cheaper than they were a year ago, for example.
Lower energy prices can also take pressure off food prices, as it costs less to transport and distribute food to grocery store shelves.
Consumer electronics have also seen big price declines: Computers, video equipment and smartphones are respectively 5%, 10% and 9% cheaper than they were a year ago, according to CPI data.
But consumers might not experience those lower prices at the store: They may only exist on paper.
That’s due to how the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures inflation for certain consumer goods like electronics, economists said.
Technology continually improves, meaning consumers get more for their money. The BLS treats those quality improvements as a price decline, giving the illusion of falling prices on paper.
A bipartisan bill to change Social Security benefit rules for pensioners passed in the House of Representatives on Tuesday, with 327 lawmakers voting to support the measure.
Now, the proposal heads to the Senate, where the chamber’s version of the bill has 62 co-sponsors, “surpassing the majority needed to pass the bill on the U.S. Senate floor and send it to the president’s desk to be signed into law,” Reps. Abigail Spanberger, D-Virginia, and Garret Graves, R-Louisiana, co-leaders of the bill, said in a joint statement.
The proposal — called the Social Security Fairness Act — would repeal rules that reduce Social Security benefits for individuals who receive pension benefits from state or local governments.
It would eliminate the windfall elimination provision, or WEP, that reduces Social Security benefits for individuals who worked in jobs where they did not pay Social Security payroll taxes and now receive pension or disability benefits from those employers. About 3% of all Social Security beneficiaries — about 2.1 million people — were affected by the WEP as of December 2023, according to the Congressional Research Service.
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The bill would also eliminate the government pension offset, or GPO, which reduces Social Security benefits for spouses, widows and widowers who also receive pension checks. As of last December, about 1% of all Social Security beneficiaries — or 745,679 individuals — were affected by the GPO, according to the Congressional Research Service.
These rules, which have been in effect for decades, reduce the incomes of certain retired police officers, teachers, firefighters and other public servants, Graves said during a Tuesday speech on the House floor.
“This has been 40 years of treating people differently, discriminating against a certain set of workers,” Graves said.
“They’re not people that are overpaid; they’re not people that are underworked,” he said.
Supporters call bill a ‘step in the right direction’
The National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare said the House vote on the Social Security Fairness Act is a “step in the right direction” and a “bipartisan victory for public sector employees and their families.”
“We have long advocated for the repeal of the WEP and GPO provisions, though we would have preferred that Congress take up the more comprehensive improvements in Rep. John Larson’s Social Security 2100 Act,” Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, said in a statement.
Larson’s proposal, which has 188 House co-sponsors, would also repeal the WEP and GPO, while also implementing other temporary benefit increases. To help pay for those changes, it would require people with more than $400,000 in income to pay more Social Security payroll taxes.
On Tuesday, Larson voted against the Social Security Fairness Act, as well as another bill, the Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act. The latter bill would use a new formula for Social Security retirement and disability benefits for pensioners rather than eliminate the WEP. It would not change the GPO.
The bill, which was proposed by Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, failed when it was brought up for a vote.
“I could not vote for the bills on the floor tonight because they are not paid for and therefore put Americans’ hard-earned benefits at risk,” Larson said in a statement. “It would hurt most deeply the five million of our fellow Americans who receive below poverty checks, and almost half of all Social Security recipients who rely on their earned benefits for the majority of their income.”
Critics say the bill will weaken Social Security
The Social Security Fairness Act would add an estimated $196 billion to deficits over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated. It would also move Social Security’s trust fund depletion dates closer by an estimated six months, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
“The long-term solvency of Social Security is an issue that Congress must address,” Spanberger said on the House floor on Tuesday.
“But that is a separate issue from allowing Americans who did their part, who contributed their earnings, for them to retire with dignity,” she said.
However, critics say Social Security’s funding woes should be a priority for Congress now. The program’s actuaries project the trust fund used to pay retirement benefits may be depleted in 2033, at which point 79% of benefits will be payable.
“This is not the right policy,” said Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute. “It’s what special interests were pushing, and politicians are responsive to their demands.”
Though the alternative bill proposed by Arrington would not address the GPO, it would provide a “fairer formula” for the WEP, Boccia said. However, broader changes are needed to shore up the program’s finances.
“We should reform Social Security so that it provides basic income security to the most vulnerable Americans in old age without adding to the debt or tax burden that younger workers face,” Boccia said.
The Free Application for Federal Student Aid for 2025-26 will be available for all students and contributors on or before Dec. 1, the Education Department says.
Typically, students have access to the coming academic year’s form in October, but this year’s delayed release follows a “phased rollout” meant to address reported issues from the 2024-25 FAFSA cycle. Last year’s new, simplified form was plagued with problems at the outset, some of which are still outstanding.
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Although the extended testing period for the 2025-26 FAFSA is important, another delayed start “creates a compressed timeline for students and families to submit their financial information, which can lead to missed opportunities for aid,” Beth Maglione, interim president and CEO of the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators, said in a statement.
How to prepare for the 2025-26 FAFSA
“I would encourage families to start gathering their financial documents and information now, so they’re ready to apply as soon as the application becomes available,” Maglione said. “Taking these steps early will help ensure they don’t miss out on vital financial support for college.”
According to Maglione, there are five key moves that students and parents can make now to prepare for their application as soon as it becomes available. Here is her best advice:
- Set up a studentaid.gov account: Before the new form opens, students and their parents (if the student is a dependent) can set up a username and password, commonly called the FSA ID, to access and complete the FAFSA electronically.
- Gather personal information: Students should have their Social Security number on hand (as should parents, if the student is a dependent, or student spouses, if applicable). However, if a student spouse, parent or stepparent does not have an SSN, they can still register for an FSA ID. The form may also ask for your driver’s license or state identification number. Non-citizens should have their Alien Registration number handy.
- Federal tax information: Applicants will need tax information from the prior-prior tax year. In this case, that means students should have 2023 tax returns for the 2025-26 FAFSA.
- Financial records: The FAFSA requires records of the student’s (and the parents’, if applicable) bank accounts, stocks, bonds, real estate (not including the family home) and other investments. Any records of untaxed income, such as child support or government benefits, should be documented as well.
- List of schools: Finally, FAFSA applicants should have a list of schools the student is applying to or attending, which will need to be listed on the FAFSA application.
Why the FAFSA is so important
For many students, financial aid is crucial when it comes to covering the cost of college.
Higher education already costs more than most families can afford, and college costs are still rising. Tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, the College Board found.
The FAFSA serves as the gateway to all federal aid money, including federal student loans, work-study and especially grants — which have become the most crucial kind of assistance because they typically do not need to be repaid.
Submitting a FAFSA is also one of the best predictors of whether a high school senior will go on to college, according to the National College Attainment Network. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to enroll in college directly after high school, according to an NCAN study of 2013 data.
How FAFSA failures have impacted students
After last year’s FAFSA complications, it became clear how much financial aid weighed heavily on decisions about college.
In part because of issues with the new form, the number of new first-year college students sank 5% this fall compared with last year, according to an analysis of early data by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
The declines in first-year student enrollment were most significant at four-year colleges that serve low-income students, the report also found.
At four-year colleges where large shares of students receive Pell Grants, first-year student enrollment dropped more than 10%.
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