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Here’s the inflation breakdown for January 2025 — in one chart

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A person shops at a Whole Foods Market grocery store in New York City on Dec. 17, 2024.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Inflation jumped in January on the back of higher prices for consumer staples like groceries and energy. Economists worry inflation has become entrenched above the Federal Reserve’s target, even as President Donald Trump’s policies around tariffs and immigration threaten to exacerbate it.

The consumer price index, an inflation gauge, rose 3% for the 12 months ending in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The January reading is up from 2.9% in December. It marks the fourth consecutive month of increases in the annual inflation rate, when it was at 2.4% in September.

“It feels like everything that could go wrong in this report did go wrong,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

That said, he cautioned that one month of data doesn’t necessarily make a trend. It would be wise to see a few more inflation reports before ringing alarm bells, he explained.

“I’d send off a yellow flare,” Zandi said. “I wouldn’t send off more than one, and certainly wouldn’t [yet] send off a red flare.”

Broad disinflation appears to be over

The consumer price index, or CPI, measures how quickly prices rise or fall for a basket of goods and services, from haircuts to coffee, clothing and concert tickets.

CPI inflation has declined significantly from its pandemic-era high of 9.1% in June 2022.

However, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. The central bank aims for a 2% annual rate over the long term. To get there, economists say inflation readings from month to month should be around 0.2%.

“Inflation has now been around these rates for some time and clearly isn’t coming down decisively any more,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Wednesday.

The apparent end to the broad period of disinflation in the U.S. is largely a function of the economy’s and labor market’s strength, putting businesses in a position to raise prices more aggressively, Zandi said.

‘The egg shock is enormous’

Consumer prices rise 0.5% in January, higher than expected

There’s also a substitution effect: Consumers may opt to switch to other proteins like beef if bird flu drives up the price of eggs and chicken, Seydl said.

Coffee prices have also strengthened amid climate-related issues in the world’s coffee-growing regions, Zandi said. The price of instant coffee, for example, is up about 7% in the past year, according to CPI.

Gasoline prices were up about 2% from December to January, a reflection of higher oil prices. Fuel oil was up about 6% during the month.

Elevated prices for gasoline and diesel can filter through to other areas of the economy, like food, due to higher transport costs for distributors, economists said.

‘Through the worst’ of housing inflation

Inflation for both rent and “owners’ equivalent rent” (which measures the price at which a homeowner could rent their residence) stayed level for the month, at 0.3%.

Shelter inflation was 4.4% over the past year, the smallest 12-month increase since January 2022.

“We’re increasingly confident we’re through the worst of the shelter inflation,” Seydl said.

Tariffs would likely raise inflation

Meanwhile, Americans are bracing for potentially higher inflation amid expectations that Trump will impose broad tariffs on trading partners, which generally raise prices for consumers.

Economists expect Trump’s policy priorities like mass deportations and tax cuts would also be inflationary.

Deportations may limit labor supply at a time of low U.S. unemployment, putting upward pressure on wages, while tax cuts may fuel spending if consumers have more money, they said.

Tariffs will have an inflationary impact that'll be dampening to growth, says Fmr. Dallas Fed Fisher

“We continue to believe that the Trump Administration’s trade, fiscal and immigration policy agenda would be mildly inflationary,” Bank of America economists wrote in a note on Monday.

That inflationary impact would likely play out in the second half of 2025, though that timeline could move forward if additional tariffs take effect in the next few weeks, the note said.

Tariff threat already impacting auto prices

Tariffs already seem to be buoying prices for automobiles by boosting short-term demand, Seydl said.

The annual inflation rate for new vehicles has drifted upward since October, though remains low around 0%.

“The evidence is becoming much broader about consumers trying to purchase ahead of tariffs,” Seydl said. “I think it’s probably the biggest driver of auto inflation.”

Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, for example, as soon as next month. He also signed an order Monday that would impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum on March 4.

Most major automakers rely heavily on imports from other countries, including Mexico, to meet demand from U.S. consumers. Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley said Tuesday that Trump’s tariff policy is causing “chaos” for the U.S. auto industry.

For now, evidence suggests the behavior of consumers frontloading their purchases is “very concentrated” in the auto market, Seydl said.

But it could broaden to other categories like consumer electronics and appliances, for example, he said.

A 10% additional tariff on all imports from China took effect on Feb. 4. The bulk of what China exports to the U.S. is consumer goods such as apparel, toys and electronics.

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Trump administration loses appeal of DOGE Social Security restraining order

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A person holds a sign during a protest against cuts made by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to the Social Security Administration, in White Plains, New York, U.S., March 22, 2025. 

Nathan Layne | Reuters

The Trump administration’s appeal of a temporary restraining order blocking the so-called Department of Government Efficiency from accessing sensitive personal Social Security Administration data has been dismissed.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit on Tuesday dismissed the government’s appeal for lack of jurisdiction. The case will proceed in the district court. A motion for a preliminary injunction will be filed later this week, according to national legal organization Democracy Forward.

The temporary restraining order was issued on March 20 by federal Judge Ellen Lipton Hollander and blocks DOGE and related agents and employees from accessing agency systems that contain personally identifiable information.

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That includes information such as Social Security numbers, medical provider information and treatment records, employer and employee payment records, employee earnings, addresses, bank records, and tax information.

DOGE team members were also ordered to delete all nonanonymized personally identifiable information in their possession.

The plaintiffs include unions and retiree advocacy groups, namely the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the Alliance for Retired Americans and the American Federation of Teachers. 

“We are pleased the 4th Circuit agreed to let this important case continue in district court,” Richard Fiesta, executive director of the Alliance for Retired Americans, said in a written statement. “Every American retiree must be able to trust that the Social Security Administration will protect their most sensitive and personal data from unwarranted disclosure.”

The Trump administration’s appeal ignored standard legal procedure, according to Democracy Forward. The administration’s efforts to halt the enforcement of the temporary restraining order have also been denied.

“The president will continue to seek all legal remedies available to ensure the will of the American people is executed,” Liz Huston, a White House spokesperson, said via email.

Fiserv CEO on the nomination to Social Security Commisioner role

The Social Security Administration did not respond to a request from CNBC for comment.

Immediately after the March 20 temporary restraining order was put in place, Social Security Administration Acting Commissioner Lee Dudek said in press interviews that he may have to shut down the agency since it “applies to almost all SSA employees.”

Dudek was admonished by Hollander, who called that assertion “inaccurate” and said the court order “expressly applies only to SSA employees working on the DOGE agenda.”

Dudek then said that the “clarifying guidance” issued by the court meant he would not shut down the agency. “SSA employees and their work will continue under the [temporary restraining order],” Dudek said in a March 21 statement.

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Most credit card users carry debt, pay over 20% interest: Fed report

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Julpo | E+ | Getty Images

Many Americans are paying a hefty price for their credit card debt.

As a primary source of unsecured borrowing, 60% of credit cardholders carry debt from month to month, according to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

At the same time, credit card interest rates are “very high,” averaging 23% annually in 2023, the New York Fed found, also making credit cards one of the most expensive ways to borrow money.

“With the vast majority of the American public using credit cards for their purchases, the interest rate that is attached to these products is significant,” said Erica Sandberg, consumer finance expert at CardRates.com. “The more a debt costs, the more stress this puts on an already tight budget.”

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Most credit cards have a variable rate, which means there’s a direct connection to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark. And yet, credit card lenders set annual percentage rates well above the central bank’s key borrowing rate, currently targeted in a range between 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December.

Following the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in 2022 and 2023, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% to more than 20% today — a significant increase fueled by the Fed’s actions to combat inflation.

“Card issuers have determined what the market will bear and are comfortable within this range of interest rates,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

APRs will come down as the central bank reduces rates, but they will still only ease off extremely high levels. With just a few potential quarter-point cuts on deck, APRs aren’t likely to fall much, according to Schulz.

Credit card debt?

Despite the steep cost, consumers often turn to credit cards, in part because they are more accessible than other types of loans, Schulz said. 

In fact, credit cards are the No. 1 source of unsecured borrowing and Americans’ credit card tab continues to creep higher. In the last year, credit card debt rose to a record $1.21 trillion.

Because credit card lending is unsecured, it is also banks’ riskiest type of lending.

“Lenders adjust interest rates for two primary reasons: cost and risk,” CardRates’ Sandberg said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s research shows that credit card charge-offs averaged 3.96% of total balances between 2010 and 2023. That compares to only 0.46% and 0.43% for business loans and residential mortgages, respectively.

As a result, roughly 53% of banks’ annual default losses were due to credit card lending, according to the NY Fed research.

“When you offer a product to everyone you are assuming an awful lot of risk,” Schulz said.

Further, “when times get tough they get tough for most everybody,” he added. “That makes it much more challenging for card issuers.”

The best way to pay off debt

The best move for those struggling to pay down revolving credit card debt is to consolidate with a 0% balance transfer card, experts suggest.

“There is enormous competition in the credit card market,” Sandberg said. Because lenders are constantly trying to capture new cardholders, those 0% balance transfer credit card offers are still widely available.

Cards offering 12, 15 or even 24 months with no interest on transferred balances “are basically the best tool in your toolbelt when it comes to knocking down credit card debt,” Schulz said. “Not accruing interest for two years on a balance is pretty hard to argue with.”

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The 60/40 portfolio may no longer represent ‘true diversification’: Fink

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Andrew Ross Sorkin speaks with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink during the New York Times DealBook Summit in the Appel Room at the Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York City on Nov. 30, 2022.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

It may be time to rethink the traditional 60/40 investment portfolio, according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.

In a new letter to investors, Fink writes the traditional allocation comprised of 60% stocks and 40% bonds that dates back to the 1950s “may no longer fully represent true diversification.”

“The future standard portfolio may look more like 50/30/20 — stocks, bonds and private assets like real estate, infrastructure and private credit.” Fink writes.

Most professional investors love to talk their book, and Fink is no exception. BlackRock has pursued several recent acquisitions — Global Infrastructure Partners, Preqin and HPS Investment Partners — with the goal of helping to increase investors’ access to private markets.

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The effort to make it easier to incorporate both public and private investments in a portfolio is analogous to index versus active investments in 2009, Fink said.

Those investment strategies that were then considered separately can now be blended easily at a low cost.

Fink hopes the same will eventually be said for public and private markets.

Yet shopping for private investments now can feel “a bit like buying a house in an unfamiliar neighborhood before Zillow existed, where finding accurate prices was difficult or impossible,” Fink writes.

60/40 portfolio still a ‘great starting point’

After both stocks and bonds saw declines in 2022, some analysts declared the 60/40 portfolio strategy dead. In 2024, however, such a balanced portfolio would have provided a return of about 14%.

“If you want to keep things very simple, the 60/40 portfolio or a target date fund is a great starting point,” said Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist at Morningstar.

If you’re willing to add more complexity, you could consider smaller positions in other asset classes like commodities, private equity or private debt, she said.

However, a 20% allocation in private assets is on the aggressive side, Arnott said.

The total value of private assets globally is about $14.3 trillion, while the public markets are worth about $247 trillion, she said.

For investors who want to keep their asset allocations in line with the market value of various asset classes, that would imply a weighting of about 6% instead of 20%, Arnott said.

Yet a 50/30/20 portfolio is a lot closer to how institutional investors have been allocating their portfolios for years, said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: Infrastructure will be the largest growing sector in private capital

The 60/40 portfolio, which Rosen previously said reached its “expiration date,” hasn’t been used by his firm’s endowment and foundation clients for decades.

There’s a key reason why. Institutional investors need to guarantee a specific return, also while paying for expenses and beating inflation, Rosen said.

While a 50/30/20 allocation may help deliver “truly outsized returns” to the mass retail market, there’s also a “lot of baggage” that comes with that strategy, Rosen said.

There’s a lack of liquidity, which means those holdings aren’t as easily converted to cash, Rosen said.

What’s more, there’s generally a lack of transparency and significantly higher fees, he said.

Prospective investors should be prepared to commit for 10 years to private investments, Arnott said.

And they also need to be aware that measurement issues with asset classes like private equity means past performance data may not be as reliable, she said.

For the average person, the most likely path toward tapping into private equity will be part of a 401(k) plan, Arnott said. So far, not a lot of companies have added private equity to their 401(k) offerings, but that could change, she said.

“We will probably see more plan sponsors adding private equity options to their lineups going forward,” Arnott said.

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