Connect with us

Finance

Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2025 — in one chart

Published

on

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Inflation throttled back in March, largely on the back of lower gasoline prices — but tariffs threaten to reverse that downward trend in coming months while trouble also lurks in certain categories like groceries, economists said.

The consumer price index rose 2.4% for the 12 months ended in March, down from 2.8% in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday, indicating that inflation decelerated.

Additionally, “core” CPI — a measure that strips out food and energy prices, which can be volatile — fell from 3.1% to 2.8%, the lowest level since March 2021. Economists prefer to look at core inflation to determine underlying inflation trends.

However, there are trouble spots like grocery prices and the Trump administration’s economic policy poses a significant headwind, economists said.

“It would have been a really good day,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, said of the CPI report. “But because of the tariffs, the trade war, it means nothing.”

He added that “it doesn’t reflect any of the tariffs being slapped on products around the world, particularly those coming from China.”

The consumer price index is a widely used measure of inflation that tracks how quickly prices rise or fall for a basket of goods and services, from haircuts to coffee, clothing and concert tickets.

CPI inflation has declined significantly from its pandemic-era high of 9.1% in June 2022.

However, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. The central bank aims for an annual rate around 2% over the long term.

Why tariffs raise prices

Tariffs, a tax paid by U.S. importers, add costs for businesses that ultimately get passed to consumers, economists said. Steel tariffs, for example, could make steel-intensive items like cars, homes and machinery more expensive, they said.

Tariffs “are going to be the main driver of inflation surging this year,” said Thomas Ryan, an economist at Capital Economics.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday backed down from imposing steep tariffs on dozens of trading partners, following a stock-market rout and surging U.S. government bond yields, which push down bond prices.

While Trump delayed so-called “reciprocal tariffs” for 90 days, all U.S. trading partners still face a 10% universal tariff on all imports. The exceptions — Canada, China and Mexico — face separate levies, however.

More from Personal Finance:
Why the stock market hates tariffs and trade wars
Why Fed chair wears purple ties — ‘we are nonpolitical’
Don’t miss these tax strategies during the tariff sell-off

Imports from China are subject to a 125% tariff, for example. In response, China put 84% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. Trump has also imposed product-specific tariffs on aluminum, steel, and automobiles and car parts.

“Many products that the U.S. imports are predominantly from China. Smartphones [73%], laptops [78%], video game consoles [87%], toys [77%], and also antibiotics for U.S. livestock production,” Wendong Zhang, professor of applied economics and policy at Cornell University, wrote in an e-mail to CNBC. “Resourcing from other countries will take time and result in much higher costs.”

Trump’s tariff policy will push the U.S. inflation rate to a peak around 4% by the end of 2025, Capital Economics estimates. That’s roughly double the Fed’s long-term target.

Vanguard Group projects a similar rise in inflation, particularly for goods prices. The money manager forecasts a 4% full-year 2025 inflation rate due to U.S. tariffs and retaliation by other nations.

Economists question whether the inflation impact will be short-lived (akin to a one-time price shock) or something more persistent.

Housing disinflation ‘set in stone’

Inflation was expected to continue its gradual decline in 2025 absent Trump’s economic policy, said Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar.

The trajectory of housing inflation is a major driver of that disinflationary trend, he said.

Inflation rate falls to 2.4% in March, lower than expected

Shelter is the largest component of the consumer price index, and therefore has an outsized impact on the direction of inflation. Annual shelter inflation eased to 4% in March, the smallest 12-month increase since November 2021, according to the BLS.

Housing disinflation is “something that’s sort of set in stone, at this point,” Caldwell said.

Gasoline prices tumble

Gasoline prices also tumbled in March. Prices at the pump declined 6.3% from February to March, after an adjustment for seasonal factors, according to the BLS.

Seasonally adjusted prices are down about 10% over the past year.

Oil prices plunged in early April, tied to fears of a global recession crimping demand, and gasoline prices are expected to throttle back further if the trend continues, economists said.

Groceries are a trouble spot

Fed's Kashkari: Fed's first priority must be keeping long-term inflation expectations anchored

Prices for instant coffee have also surged, about 13%. Weather patterns like droughts fueled by climate change have disrupted major coffee growers like Brazil, reducing supplies of coffee beans.

However, the broad increase in grocery prices isn’t attributable to one factor or agricultural product, Zandi said.

It’s “worrisome” that food inflation has picked up even as diesel prices have fallen, a dynamic that would generally serve to hold down inflation due to lower transportation costs to grocery shelves, Zandi said.

“This inflation report had some highlights, and continues to have problem areas in food prices and energy components like electricity and natural gas,” Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, wrote Thursday morning. “But all this is looking in the rear-view mirror. With both inflation and the overall economy, uncertainty abounds about what might be lurking around the bend.”

Continue Reading

Finance

Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Published

on

Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

Continue Reading

Finance

Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Published

on

Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

Continue Reading

Finance

Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

Published

on

Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

Continue Reading

Trending