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Here’s what to expect on mortgage rates into early 2025

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Mortgage rates seem to have steadied. That may be a good sign for the market, experts say.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the U.S. slightly dipped to 6.78% for the week ending Nov. 14, barely changed from 6.79% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.

“Even though it’s higher than it has been over the course of several weeks, it’s probably good news for homebuyers,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. 

“When rates are moving around a lot, it makes a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Lautz said. 

Mortgage rates declined this fall in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020. But then borrowing costs jumped again this month as the bond market reacted to Donald Trump’s election win.

While the president-elect has talked about bringing mortgage rates down, presidents do not control borrowing costs for home loans, experts say.

Instead, mortgage rates closely track Treasury yields and are partially affected by what happens with the federal funds rate.

“They foresee inflationary policies, whether it’s tariffs or greater government spending, the tax bill … they’re pricing in more inflation,” said James Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. “As the bond market reacts, mortgage rates are going to react to that, too.”

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Less volatility can be a good sign, said Chen Zhao, Chief economist at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage.

“High volatility by itself actually pushes mortgage rates even higher above treasury yields,” Zhao said. “More stable rates also means that homebuyers don’t have to worry during their home search about what their budget allows for changing.”

Trump’s team did not respond to a request for comment.

Don’t expect ‘huge swings’ on mortgage rates

Election uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. Then rates went up even more last week as the stock market and yields reacted to the election results.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points on Nov. 6, closing to trade at 4.43%, hitting its highest level since July, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth, along with fiscal spending. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 0.073 basis point to 4.276% that day, reaching its highest level since July 31.

But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said.

From a monetary policy standpoint, future rate cuts are up in the air. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.

If the Fed continues to ease the federal funds rate, it could provide indirect downward pressure on mortgage rates, according to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

“However, improved growth expectations would lead to higher rates, as would larger government deficits,” he said.

Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a “bumpy” or “volatile” path over the next year.

“I don’t think that there’s going to be any huge swings down into the 5% range,” Lautz said. “Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025,” she said.

How buyers, sellers and homeowners can benefit

Rates that are trending lower can present an opportunity for buyers who have been house hunting for a while, especially as the winter season kicks in. Competition tends to slow down in the winter months in part because homebuyers with kids are in the middle of the school year and reluctant to move, Lautz explained. 

Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025.

Jessica Lautz

Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors

Current homeowners can also make the most of lower rates.

For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said. 

It “makes sense” to consider a refinance if rates have fallen one to two points since you took out the loan, Jeff Ostrowski, a housing expert at Bankrate.com, told CNBC after the Fed’s first rate cut this fall.

Remember that a loan refinance isn’t free; you may incur associated costs like closing costs, an appraisal and title insurance. While the total cost will depend on your area, a refi is going to cost between 2% and 6% of the loan amount, Jacob Channel, an economist at LendingTree, said at that time.

If you’re pondering on whether to refi or not, look at what’s going on with rates, reach out to lenders and see if refinancing makes sense for you, experts say.

Homeowners have earned record home equity. U.S. homeowners with mortgages have a net homeowner equity of over $17.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2024, according to CoreLogic. Home equity increased in the second quarter of this year by $1.3 trillion, an 8.0% growth from a year prior.

If you’re looking to sell your current home, you may be able to counteract slightly high borrowing costs on your next property by placing a larger down payment, Lautz said.

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‘Era of the billionaire.’ Here’s why wealth accumulation is accelerating

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President-elect Trump's cabinet to have more billionaires than any in history

The rich are getting richer.

The combined wealth of the world’s most wealthy rose to $15 trillion from $13 trillion in just 12 months, according to Oxfam’s latest annual inequality report — notching the second largest annual increase in billionaire wealth since the global charity began tracking this data.

Last year alone, roughly 204 new billionaires were minted, bringing the total number of billionaires to 2,769, up from 2,565 in 2023, the global charity found.

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“Not only has the rate of billionaire wealth accumulation accelerated — by three times — but so too has their power,” Oxfam International’s Executive Director Amitabh Behar said in a statement Sunday. 

“We’ve reached a new era now, we are in the era of the billionaire,” said Jenny Ricks, general secretary of the human rights group Fight Inequality Alliance. “The challenge now is turning this around and making this the era of the 99%.”

Despite the fact that America ranks first as the richest nation in the world in terms of gross domestic product, 36.8 million Americans live in poverty, accounting for 11.1% of the total population, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. 

“We need government serving people’s real needs and rights,” Ricks said, with increased funding for education and healthcare, among other social services.

‘Tax us, the super rich’

After Oxfam’s report was released, some of the world’s wealthiest people called on elected representatives of the world’s leading economies to introduce higher taxes on the very richest in society.

In an open letter to political leaders attending the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, more than 370 billionaires and millionaires said that they wanted to “tackle the corrosive impact of extreme wealth.”

To that end, “start with the simplest solution: tax us, the super rich,” the letter said.

36% of billionaire wealth is inherited

Oxfam found that 36% of billionaire wealth is now inherited. Much of that wealth will also get handed down. A separate report by UBS found that baby boomer billionaires’ heirs stand to inherit an estimated $6.3 trillion over the next 15 years.

“As the great wealth transition gains momentum … we expect the proportion of multigenerational billionaires to increase,” the report said.

According to Oxfam’s analysis, half of the world’s billionaires live in countries with no inheritance tax for direct descendants.

In the U.S., there is a federal estate tax up to 40%, depending on the amount of the estate over the current exclusion limit.

In 2025, the basic exclusion amount rose to $13.99 million per person, up from $13.61 million in 2024.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has vowed to fully extend the trillions in tax breaks he enacted via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, which also doubled the estate and gift tax exemption.

After 2025, the higher estate and gift tax exemption will sunset without action from Congress. If the provision expires, the exclusion will revert to 2017 levels, adjusted for inflation.

Some Democrats have pushed back on TCJA extensions, noting that they disproportionately benefit the wealthy, rather than middle-class families.

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Here’s what you need to know about financial influencers

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TikTok’s fate is still uncertain.

While the Supreme Court last week upheld the law that effectively bans TikTok from the U.S., one of Trump’s first actions as president was an executive order to pause the ban for 75 days, starting Jan. 20.

The app’s future may shift how young adults learn about personal finance. Gen Zers, or those born between 1997 and 2012, often rely on TikTok’s financial community, or #FinTok, as a source of information about money.

A 2024 report by the CFA Institute found that the generation is more likely than older generations to engage with “finfluencer” — or financial influencer — content on TikTok, YouTube and Instagram, in part because they have less access to professional financial advisors and a preference for obtaining information online.

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Americans last year turned to TikTok for financial advice on topics including budgeting (25%), investing (24%), credit cards and credit scores (33%), according to a recent report by Chime, a financial technology company.

The site polled 2,000 U.S. adults from November 1 to 16. It also analyzed user engagement patterns on TikTok compared with data from platforms like Google Trends and Exploding Topics, which track popularity and growth of trends over time.

Leading up to the law’s initial Jan. 19 deadline for TikTok, finfluencers had been directing their followers to other platforms like Instagram and YouTube. Individuals also downloaded social media apps like RedNote as TikTok substitutes.

But whatever ends up happening with TikTok, finfluencers are here to stay. Here’s how to vet their advice.

The value of financial advice on TikTok

About 65% of respondents in Chime’s survey said they feel more financially secure since using TikTok. Another 68% say #FinTok has improved their financial situation at home.

“For 2025, TikTok users are gravitating toward digestible personal finance tips that incorporate budgeting apps, micro-investing and community-based saving challenges,” said certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth, a wealth management firm based in New York City that focuses on millennials, young professionals and entrepreneurs.

Some viral TikTok trends are worth applying to your finances in 2025, like “loud budgeting,” experts say. The trend encourages consumers to take control of their finances and be vocal about making money-conscious decisions rather than overspending.

Essentially, “loud budgeting is just financial boundaries,” financial therapist Lindsay Bryan-Podvin, author of “The Financial Anxiety Solution” and founder of Mind Money Balance.

A short-term, no-spend challenge can also be an opportunity to do a “gut check on where you’re spending and where you’re saving,” Bryan-Podvin said.

TikTok 'refugees' stream to Chinese app RedNote

“These trends are worth adopting if you verify the underlying strategies [… and] modify them to align with your personal financial goals and risk tolerance,” said Boneparth, who is a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

But a lot of incorrect or risky advice appears on social media, too. About 27% of social media users believed misleading financial advice or misinformation on social media, according to Edelman Financial Engines. About 42% of surveyed adults in their 30s have fallen prey to bad financial advice in social platforms, and 2 in 10 have been affected more than once, the report found.

Edelman polled 3,008 adults of ages 30 and up from June 12 to July 2024. The total sample included 1,500 respondents between ages 45 and 70 with household assets between $500 and $3 million.

Vet financial content and find other sources

It’s important for social media users to be cautious about the content that influencers share, experts say. 

“There’s really no barrier to entry for [an] influencer to participate on a platform,” said CFP Brian Walsh, head of financial planning advice at SoFi, a personal finance and financial planning technology company.

While social media helps people easily access information and get unique insights, it can be concerning when it comes to information you’d apply to your personal finances, he said.

“There’s nothing stopping someone with a ton of followers from promoting something that’s completely wrong,” Walsh said.

Individuals who are affected by risky or incorrect advice they took from a social media creator can file a complaint with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, according to Amy Miller, an accredited financial counselor and manager of America Saves, a campaign managed by the Consumer Federation of America.

Otherwise, here are three key steps to consider: 

1. Look for other sources of other information

In most instances, you might not find experienced financial advisors on TikTok like on other social platforms, according to Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Irvine, California-based Sun Group Wealth Partners.

Much of it has to do with compliance rules. In order for financial planners to maintain their licensing, they must adhere to certain guidelines on what information they’re allowed to share. It’s easier to track and review content posted on some platforms — TikTok isn’t one of them.

“I’m not allowed to share information on TikTok,” said Sun, who is also a CNBC FA Council member.

You can typically find licensed financial professionals actively sharing content on platforms like LinkedIn, YouTube and X, she said.

It’s also “absolutely crucial” to develop a basic level of financial literacy before turning to social media for advice, said SoFi’s Walsh.

Look for online courses, join financial forums and subscribe to legitimate publications to gain financial literacy, experts say. Organizations like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau also provide free educational resources.

2. Do a background check on the content creator

Search for designations and look up the creator’s background, Walsh said: “The CFP [certified financial planner designation] is really the baseline when it comes to financial planning.”

You can enter the content creator’s name on BrokerCheck to see if they have any credentials. If they are accredited, find out if they have any disclosures, a red flag which means they’ve gotten into trouble in the past.

3. Verify the advice

If the content creator is not actively in the financial industry or lacks accreditation altogether, be careful about what they say. Be cautious if they are promising quick results and if they speak in absolutes, SoFi’s Walsh said — it can take a long time to save for an emergency, pay off credit card debt or learn how to invest.

“So promising get rich quick or overnight sensations […] that’s a big red flag for me,” Walsh said.

Also be careful if a creator talks about how one product or solution can answer all of your problems, he explained.

Outside of the basics like spending less than you make and saving money, there are “very few absolutes,” Walsh said.

Cross-reference an influencer’s claims with sources like government regulators and content from reputable financial professionals and publications, Boneparth said. If you need personalized advice, consider reaching out to a certified financial planner, a tax professional or a licensed investment advisor, he said.

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Some investors can file taxes for free in 2025. Here’s who qualifies

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There’s less than a week until tax season kicks off on Jan. 27 — and investors may have more options to file returns for free than in previous years.

Typically, investors need certain tax forms to file returns, including Form 1099-B for capital gains and losses and Form 1099-DIV for dividends and capital gains distributions. Form 1099-INT covers interest income from savings accounts, certificates of deposit, Series I bonds, Treasury bills and more.

Plus, retirees may receive Form 1099-R for withdrawals from 401(k) plans, individual retirement accounts, pensions and other distributions.

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Here are three free tax filing options to consider this season, depending on your situation.

1. IRS Direct File

This season, IRS Direct File, the agency’s free filing program, has expanded to 25 states. It covers more than 30 million taxpayers across eligible states, according to U.S. Department of the Treasury estimates.

“We’re excited about the improvements to Direct File and the millions more taxpayers who will be eligible to use the service this year,” former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said in a press release in October.

During the pilot in 2024, the program covered simple returns, including filings with interest of $1,500 or less. But for the 2025 filing season, the program supports interest above $1,500 and Alaska residents who receive the Alaska Permanent Fund dividend.  

The program doesn’t currently cover other investment income, including capital gains and dividends.

Starting in March, Direct File will also support distributions from most company retirement plans, such as 401(k) plans, pensions and more. But you can’t use the service if you withdrew funds from an IRA. 

Tax Tip: Free filing

2. IRS Free File 

Another option, IRS Free File, is a public-private partnership between the agency and the Free File Alliance, a nonprofit coalition of tax software companies.

This season, you can use IRS Free File if your adjusted gross income, or AGI, was $84,000 or less in 2024.

Eight software partners will accept the most commonly used tax forms and schedules, explained Tim Hugo, executive director of the Free File Alliance. Those include Schedule B for interest and ordinary dividends and Schedule D for capital gains and losses. These Schedules cover investing forms, such as 1099-INT over $1,500 and certain items from Forms 1099-B and 1099-DIV.

“It really is a great tool that can serve millions of Americans that just nobody knows about,” Hugo said.

3. Volunteer Income Tax Assistance

If your want more guidance, you may also qualify for free tax prep from Volunteer Income Tax Assistance, or VITA, a program managed by the IRS. 

For the 2025 season, you’ll qualify for VITA with an adjusted gross income of $67,000 or less.

The program’s scope includes coverage for investors, including Forms 1099-INT, 1099-B and 1099-DIV, with certain limitations. VITA also covers Form 1099-R for retirement income with some exclusions. The program won’t cover cryptocurrency transactions for 2024 filings.   

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