Connect with us

Personal Finance

High gas prices from Iran war could offset Trump’s bigger tax refunds

Published

on

A man pumps gas at an Exxon station as the price of oil and gas has surged amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 5, 2026.

Ken Cedeno | Reuters

As the Iran war continues, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route, remains stalled, many Americans are seeing higher gas prices

That elevated cost threatens to offset larger tax refunds this season, depending on how long the Iran conflict lasts, some experts say.

Iran on Wednesday received President Donald Trump‘s 15-point plan to end the war, which initially lowered crude oil prices. But that drop reversed on Thursday after the country rejected the U.S. ceasefire offer.

Meanwhile, American consumers are still paying higher prices at the pump. The price of gasoline on Thursday was at a nationwide average of $3.98 a gallon, up by roughly 33% from one month ago, according to AAA.

Those higher gas prices could chip away at the windfall received by some taxpayers this spring. As of Mar. 13, the average refund amount for individual filers was $3,623, about $350 more than a year earlier, according to the latest IRS data.

Read more CNBC personal finance coverage

While the average refund size could still shift, it’s increasingly “less likely we’re going to see a major change” before the April 15 tax deadline, William McBride, chief economist at the Tax Foundation, told CNBC.

This season’s bigger tax refunds come as both parties focus on Americans’ affordability concerns. Republicans hold slim majorities in the House and Senate ahead of the November midterm elections.

Trump has said this will be the “largest tax refund season of all time” based on the 2025 changes enacted via his “big beautiful bill.” 

Higher gasoline prices could offset bigger tax refunds

If the Strait of Hormuz were closed for three weeks and crude oil prices jumped to $110 per barrel in March, retail gasoline prices could peak at $4.36 per gallon in May, according to a March 18 analysis from economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

Under that scenario, higher gasoline prices could be “wiping out most or all of the larger tax refunds on average,” the authors wrote.

The analysis, which included Goldman Sachs‘ baseline Brent crude oil forecast from March 17, projected the average U.S. household could pay $740 more for gas through year-end, without changes to demand.

A separate Goldman Sachs note released March 22 upgraded its oil price forecasts, with March through April Brent crude oil estimates averaging $110 per barrel.

However, “the U.S. could end military action at any point, which would likely reduce the risk premium in global crude and refined product prices,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.

In a March 20 note, Oxford Economics estimated that if gas prices averaged $3.60 per gallon in 2026, consumer spending on fuel could be “almost exactly offsetting the boost from refunds.”

Of course, the longer the conflict lasts, the more it could impact consumers at the pump.

“The energy shock is going to hit those who have the least cushion … and it doesn’t look like those tax refunds are going to be here to save them,” Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, a left-leaning economic policy think tank, said during a press call Friday.

Will tax refunds deliver? Here's what to know
Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

$20,000 Caution Bond Requirement for US Visa Applications imposed on 50 Countries

Published

on

The United States Department of State has officially implemented a revised visa policy introducing a mandatory posting requirement for caution payments of up to $20,000 on select foreign travel applications. Under the updated regulatory framework, consular officials are authorized to require temporary nonimmigrant visa applicants from targeted foreign countries to post a refundable financial bond of $20,000 as a condition for visa issuance. The policy mechanism is designed to address diplomatic concerns regarding high overstay rates among temporary visitor, business, and educational visa categories.

The caution bond pilot program applies selectively to foreign nationals from designated countries whose diplomatic entities record historical visa overstay rates exceeding established federal thresholds. Under administrative guidelines published by the State Department, the full financial deposit is posted directly to a dedicated federal escrow account prior to final visa issuance. The entire caution payment is automatically refunded to the applicant upon verified proof of timely departure from the United States in strict compliance with the authorized duration of stay. Conversely, failure to depart within the legal timeframe results in full forfeiture of the posted financial bond to the United States government.

Diplomatic representatives and travel policy experts have expressed varying perspectives regarding the operational implementation of the caution bond system. Administration officials emphasize that the measure serves as an effective, market-based incentive to enforce international travel compliance and preserve domestic immigration security standards. However, international trade organizations and foreign diplomatic missions have raised concerns regarding the financial burden imposed on legitimate business travelers, foreign students, and commercial partners from developing nations.

The United States finalized the rule to make the temporary visa bond program permanent, taking effect on August 3, 2026. The updated permanent regulation replaces the prior 12-month pilot, eliminates the lowest $5,000 tier, and raises the maximum required bond amount to $20,000 for specific B-1/B-2 business and tourist visa applicants.

Here is the list of the 50 countries on the list as o August 3, 2026

African Nations (31 Countries)

  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Cabo Verde (Cape Verde)
  • Central African Republic
  • Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
  • Djibouti
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Malawi
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Tanzania
  • Togo
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe

Asian & Eastern European Nations (11 Countries)

  • Bangladesh
  • Bhutan
  • Cambodia
  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Nepal
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Tajikistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Uzbekistan

Caribbean & Latin American Nations (5 Countries)

  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Grenada
  • Venezuela

Oceanian Nations (3 Countries)

  • Fiji
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Next-Generation Retirement Planning: Managing Longevity Risk and Variable Income Streams

Published

on

Retirement planning strategies are evolving in 2026 to address increased life expectancies, shifting dynamic market conditions, and the transition away from traditional defined-benefit pensions. Individual investors and financial advisors are abandoning rigid retirement models in favor of flexible, multi-asset strategies designed to mitigate longevity risk and preserve purchasing power over multi-decade retirement horizons.

Mitigating Longevity Risk with Dynamic Asset Allocation
As average life expectancies extend past eighty-five years, one of the primary financial risks facing retirees is outliving their accumulated wealth. Traditional fixed income allocations—such as the standard 60/40 equity-to-bond portfolio—are being reevaluated to ensure portfolios generate sufficient capital growth alongside reliable income.

Financial planners recommend maintaining a meaningful equity allocation throughout retirement to offset long-term inflation erosion. High-dividend equity funds, global real estate investment trusts (REITs), and inflation-indexed Treasuries are combined to create diversified portfolios that deliver both growth and income stability.

The Transition to Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies
The classic “4% safe withdrawal rule” is increasingly replaced by dynamic withdrawal strategies that adapt annually based on market performance. Under a dynamic withdrawal framework, retirees adjust their annual distribution rates within pre-set caps and floors:
– Market Upside: During strong market returns, retirees can increase discretionary spending or fund family legacy gifts.
– Market Downturns: During market pullbacks, spending distributions are temporarily reduced to prevent sequence-of-returns risk and preserve core investment principal.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Options and Deferred Annuities
To establish a guaranteed baseline for essential living expenses, individuals are incorporating modern fixed-indexed and deferred longevity annuities into their broader retirement architectures. Modern annuity structures offer competitive return caps, transparent fee schedules, and inflation-adjustment options.

By funding essential expenses—such as housing, healthcare, and insurance—with guaranteed income streams from Social Security, pensions, and annuities, retirees can manage discretionary investment portfolios with greater flexibility and lower emotional stress during market volatility.

Actionable Steps for Future Retirees
1. Calculate Baseline Retirement Expenses: Determine fixed living costs and map guaranteed income sources to cover essential expenditures.
2. Adopt Flexible Withdrawal Rules: Implement dynamic spending rules to protect investment principal against market downturns.
3. Incorporate Inflation-Protected Assets: Maintain exposure to dividend-growing equities and inflation-indexed bonds to safeguard long-term purchasing power.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Building Generational Wealth: Family Governance, Estate Tax Optimization, and Asset Protection

Published

on

As the largest intergenerational transfer of wealth in history accelerates, high-net-worth families, entrepreneurs, and individual investors are placing heightened emphasis on comprehensive estate planning, family governance, and asset protection. Preserving capital across generations requires a balanced approach combining tax-efficient legal structures with open family communication and financial literacy education.

Optimizing Estate Tax Exemptions and Trust Structures
With potential modifications to federal estate tax exemption thresholds on the horizon, proactive estate planning is essential for high-net-worth households. Estate planning attorneys and wealth advisors are establishing multi-generational trust structures to transfer wealth efficiently while minimizing estate and gift tax exposure.

Popular structural strategies include:
– Irrevocable Life Insurance Trusts (ILITs): Utilizing life insurance proceeds to provide liquidity for estate tax obligations without expanding the taxable estate.
– Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts (GRATs): Transferring rapidly appreciating assets to beneficiaries with minimal gift tax consequences.
– Dynasty Trusts: Preserving wealth across multiple generations while providing long-term asset protection from creditor claims and legal liabilities.

Establishing Family Governance and Financial Education
Legal and financial structures alone cannot guarantee long-term wealth preservation without effective family governance. Financial advisors report that a significant percentage of multi-generational wealth dissipation stems from lack of communication and inadequate financial preparation among heir generations.

Families are establishing formal family governance frameworks, including periodic family meetings, written mission statements, and structured philanthropic foundations. Involving younger family members in charitable grant-making and investment discussions fosters financial stewardship and prepares heirs to manage family assets responsibly.

Digital Asset Custody and Legacy Planning
In today’s modern economy, estate planning must extend beyond physical real estate and traditional brokerage accounts to encompass digital assets. Comprehensive estate plans now include detailed inventories and legal access protocols for corporate domain names, intellectual property, digital media rights, and cryptocurrency holdings.

Fiduciaries and estate executors should be provided with secure, encrypted access mechanisms and clear legal authority to manage and transfer digital holdings in accordance with the owner’s estate directions.

Practical Steps for Legacy Planning
1. Review and Update Estate Documents: Ensure wills, revocable trusts, and power-of-attorney designations accurately reflect current family structures.
2. Establish Structured Trusts: Utilize irrevocable trusts to protect assets from creditors and minimize future estate tax liabilities.
3. Create a Digital Estate Inventory: Document access protocols and legal permissions for all online accounts, intellectual property, and digital assets.

Continue Reading

Trending