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Higher March inflation boosts Social Security COLA forecast for 2025

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High inflation means bigger cost of living adjustments (COLA) but not enough to make ends meet, seniors fear.  (iStock)

A spike in inflation in March means seniors who draw Social Security benefits could see a high cost of living adjustment (COLA) in 2025, the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) said in a recent report.

March inflation grew at a faster rate than anticipated. Consumer prices rose 3.5%, more than the 3.2% growth in February and above the 3.4% growth economists had expected, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). As a result, TSCL adjusted its 2025 COLA estimate for Social Security benefits to increase by 2.6%, up from its previous forecast of 1.75%. COLA is ultimately calculated based on inflation during the third quarter.

However, the increased adjustment would still fall short of what seniors surveyed by TSCL said they needed to cover their living costs in the current high-cost environment. Nearly three out of four respondents (71%) said their household costs exceeded the 3.2% COLA they received for 2023.

“If the COLA increases by 2.6%, that will be an approximately $45 increase,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said. “What can you buy for that? Not much. From long-term dwindling purchasing power to heightened financial uncertainty, the trouble of seniors not being able to make ends meet remains a pressing concern of The Senior Citizens League, and it should be a pressing concern of Congress as well.”

If you want to reduce your monthly expenses, you could consider paying off high-interest debt with a personal loan at a lower interest rate. Visit Credible to speak with a personal loan expert and see if this option is right for you.

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Seniors with student loan debt risk Social Security benefit garnishment

Seniors with student loan debt risk having their Social Security benefits withheld if they can’t pay their debt obligations. According to a 2023 report by the think tank New America, roughly 3.5 million Americans 60 and older hold over $125 billion in student loans. Approximately 40% of borrowers aged 65 and older who have federal loans have defaulted.

Social Security beneficiaries risk losing up to 15% of their monthly benefits to pay off their outstanding loans under the Treasury Offset Program (TOP). TOP collects past-due (delinquent) debts (for example, child support payments) that people owe to state and federal agencies.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Ron Wyden, D-Ore., are among several lawmakers pushing for this practice to change. 

“When borrowers are in collections, on average, their Social Security benefits are estimated to be reduced by $2,500 annually,” the lawmakers recently wrote in a letter to President Joe Biden. “This can be a devastating blow to those who rely on Social Security as their primary source of income.”

If you’re struggling with private student loan debt, you could consider refinancing to a lower interest rate. Visit Credible to speak with a student loan expert and get your questions answered.

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Higher COLA means bigger tax bills for some

Taxes are another threat to Social Security benefits, as they are adjusted for COLA. Twenty-three percent of survey participants who received Social Security for three years or more said they paid tax for the first time during the 2023 tax season. This percentage will likely increase this tax season because of the 8.7% COLA increase in 2023.

Social Security benefits are taxed when incomes exceed $25,000. Since the tax became effective in 1984, this fixed threshold has never been adjusted for inflation. Up to 85% of Social Security benefits can be taxable when income exceeds certain thresholds.

If you are retired or are preparing to retire, paying down debt with a personal loan can help you reduce your interest rate and monthly expenses. You can visit Credible to compare multiple personal loan lenders in one place and choose the one with the best interest rate for you.

1 IN 3 AMERICANS MAXING OUT CREDIT CARDS BECAUSE OF INFLATION: SURVEY

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Stock and crypto trading site eToro prices IPO at $52 per share

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Omar Marques | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

EToro, a stock brokerage platform that’s been ramping up in crypto, has priced its IPO at $52 a share, as the company prepares to test the market’s appetite for new offerings.

The company had planned to sell shares at $46 to $50 each.

IPOs looked poised for a rebound when President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January after a prolonged drought spurred by rising interest rates and inflationary concerns. CoreWeave’s March debut was a welcome sign for IPO hopefuls such as eToro, online lender Klarna and ticket reseller StubHub.

But tariff uncertainty temporarily stalled those plans. The retail trading platform filed for an initial public offering in March, but shelved plans as rising tariff uncertainty rattled markets. Klarna and StubHub did the same.

EToro’s Nasdaq debut, under ticker symbol ETOR, may indicate whether the public market is ready to take on risk. Digital physical therapy company Hinge Health has started its IPO roadshow, and said in a filing on Tuesday that it plans to raise up to $437 million in its upcoming offering. Also on Tuesday, fintech company Chime filed its prospectus with the SEC.

Founded in 2007 by brothers Yoni and Ronen Assia along with David Ring, eToro competes with the likes of Robinhood and makes money through fees related to trading, including spreads on buy and sell orders, and non-trading activities such as withdrawals and currency conversion.

Net income jumped almost thirteenfold last year to $192.4 million from $15.3 million a year earlier. The company has been ramping up its crypto business, with revenue from cryptoassets more than tripling to over $12 million in 2024. One-quarter of its net trading contribution last year came from crypto, up from 10% the prior year.

This isn’t eToro’s first attempt at going public. In 2022, the company scrapped plans to hit the market through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) during a sharp downturn in equity markets. The deal would have valued the company at more than $10 billion.

CEO Yoni Assia told CNBC early last year that eToro was still aiming for a market debut but “evaluating the right opportunity” as it was building relationships with exchanges, including the Nasdaq.

“We definitely are eyeing the public markets,” he said at the time. “I definitely see us becoming eventually a public company.”

EToro said in its prospectus that BlackRock had expressed interest in buying $100 million in shares at the IPO price. The company said it planned to sell 5 million shares in the offering, with existing investors and executives selling another 5 million.

Underwriters for the deal include Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and UBS.

— CNBC’s Ryan Browne contributed reporting

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Coinbase jumps 22% after S&P 500 inclusion

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Brian Armstrong, chief executive officer of Coinbase Global Inc., speaks during the Messari Mainnet summit in New York, on Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Coinbase shares soared more than 20% on Tuesday and headed for their sharpest rally since the day after President Donald Trump’s election victory following the crypto exchange’s inclusion in the S&P 500.

S&P Global said in a release late Monday that Coinbase is replacing Discover Financial Services, which is in the process of being acquired by Capital One Financial. The change will take effect before trading on Monday.

Stocks added to the S&P 500 often rise in value because funds that track the benchmark will add it to their portfolios. For Coinbase, it’s the latest sharp move in what’s been a volatile few months since Trump was elected to return to the White House.

Coinbase shares rocketed 31% on Nov. 6, the day after the election, on optimism that the incoming administration would adopt more crypto-friendly policies following a challenging and litigious four years during President Joe Biden’s term in office.

The company and CEO Brian Armstrong were key financial supporters in the 2024 campaign, backing pro-crypto candidates up and down the ticket. Coinbase was one of the top corporate donors, giving more than $75 million to a PAC called Fairshake and its affiliates. Armstrong personally contributed more than $1.3 million to a mix of candidates.

While the start of the Trump term has been mostly favorable to the crypto industry, through deregulation and an executive order to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve, legislation has thus far stalled. That’s due in part to concerns surrounding Trump’s personal efforts to profit from crypto through a meme coin and other family initiatives.

Coinbase has been on a roller coaster as well, plummeting 26% in February and 20% in March as Trump’s tariff announcements roiled markets and pushed investors out of risk. With Tuesday’s rally, the stock is now up about 2% for the year.

Since going public through a direct listing in 2021, Coinbase has become a bigger part of the U.S. financial system, with bitcoin soaring in value and large institutions gaining regulatory approval to create spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Bitcoin spiked last week, topping $100,000 and nearing its record price reached in January. The crypto currency surpassed $104,000 on Tuesday.

To join the S&P 500, a company must have reported a profit in its latest quarter and have cumulative profit over the four most recent quarters.

Coinbase last week reported net income of $65.6 million, or 24 cents a share, down from $1.18 billion, or $4.40 a share a year earlier, after accounting for the fair value of its crypto investments. Revenue rose 24% to $2.03 billion from $1.64 billion a year ago.

The company last week also announced plans to buy Dubai-based Deribit, a major crypto derivatives exchange for $2.9 billion. The deal, which is the largest in the crypto industry to date, will help Coinbase broaden its footprint outside the U.S.

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