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Hot inflation data pushes market’s rate cut expectations to September

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 09, 2024 in New York City.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

As recently as January, investors had high hopes that the Federal Reserve was about to embark on a rate-cutting campaign that would reverse some of the most aggressive policy tightening in decades.

Three months of inflation data have brought those expectations back down to earth.

March’s consumer price index report Wednesday helped verify worries that inflation is proving stickier than thought, giving credence to caution from Fed policymakers and finally dashing the market’s hopes that the central bank would be approving as many as seven rate cuts this year.

“The math suggests it’s going to be hard near term to get inflation down to the Fed’s target,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “Not that you’ve put a pin in inflation getting to the Fed’s target, but it’s not happening imminently.”

There was little good news to come out of the Labor Department’s CPI report.

Both the all-items and ex-food and energy readings were higher than the market consensus on both a monthly and annual basis, putting the rate of inflation well above the Fed’s target. Headline CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.5% from a year ago, ahead of the central bank’s 2% goal.

Danger beneath the surface

But other danger signs beyond the headline numbers emerged.

Services prices, excluding energy, jumped 0.5% and were up 5.4% from a year ago. A relatively new computation the markets are following which takes core services and subtracts out housing — it has come to be known as “supercore” and is watched closely by the Fed — surged at an annualized pace of 7.2% and rose 8.2% on a three-month annualized basis.

There’s also another risk in that “base effects,” or comparisons to previous periods, will make inflation look even worse as energy prices in particular are rising after falling around the same time last year.

All of that leaves the Fed in a holding position and the markets worried about the possibility of no cuts this year.

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which computes rate-cut probabilities as indicated by futures market pricing, moved dramatically following the CPI release. Traders now see just a slim chance of a cut at the June meeting, which previously had been favored. They have also pushed out the first reduction to September, and now expect only two cuts by the end of the year. Traders even priced in a 2% probability of no cuts in 2024.

“Today’s disappointing CPI report makes the Fed’s job more difficult,” said Phillip Neuhart, director of market and economic research at First Citizens Bank Wealth. “The data does not completely remove the possibility of Fed action this year, but it certainly lessens the chances the Fed is cutting the overnight rate in the next couple months.”

Market reaction

Markets, of course, didn’t like the CPI news and sold off aggressively Wednesday morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by more than 1%, and Treasury yields burst higher. The 2-year Treasury note, which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, jumped to 4.93%, an increase of nearly 0.2 percentage point.

There could yet be good news ahead for inflation. Factors such as rising productivity and industrial capacity, along with slower money creation and easing wages, could take the pressure off somewhat, according to Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

However, “inflation will remain higher than what is necessary to warrant Fed easing,” he added. “In this regard, Fed cuts will be pushed out to into the second half of the year and are likely to fall only 50 basis points [0.5 percentage point] with risks being tilted in the direction of even less easing.”

In some respects, the market has only itself to blame.

The pricing in of seven rate cuts earlier this year was completely at odds with indications from Fed officials. However, when policymakers in December raised their “dot plot” indicator to three rate cuts from two projected in September, it set off a Wall Street frenzy.

“The market was just way over its skis in that assumption. That made no sense based on the data,” Schwab’s Sonders said.

Still, she thinks if the economy stays strong — GDP is projected to grow at a 2.5% rate in the first quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed — the knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday’s data could pass.

“If the economy hangs in there, I think the market is, for the most part, OK,” Sonders said.

Correction: The markets are worried about the possibility of no cuts this year. An earlier version misstated the worries.

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

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According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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