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How investors view global economic uncertainty this election year

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This year is a “super election year,” with more than 60 countries — encompassing around half of the world’s population — hosting national elections, according to Statista.

Promoting a healthy economy is high on the list of expectations of voters globally, according to a recent report by Principal Financial Group. But even when the economy is doing well, many people have developed a more polarized — and negativeperception of the economic environment overall, a disconnect known as a “vibecession.” 

Whether or not that influences how people vote, the vibecession doesn’t appear to have shown up in how they invest.

“As we look at our own member base, nearly 10 million plan participants, they’re not moving their money,”  said Dan Houston, the chairman and CEO of Principal Financial Group, in an exclusive interview at CNBC’s global headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. “They’re staying the course, and they know that they’re well served to stay in a well-diversified portfolio.” 

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Principal offers retirement plans and other financial products to 68 million clients, including institutions and individuals, around the world.

U.S. is ‘treading water’ on financial inclusion

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How Trump ‘big beautiful’ tax bill could change in the Senate

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Staff members remove a sign following a press conference after the House passage of the tax and spending bill, at the U.S. Capitol on May 22, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

House Republicans passed a multi-trillion-dollar tax and spending package after months of debate, which included many of President Donald Trump‘s priorities. 

Now, policy experts are bracing for Senate changes as GOP lawmakers aim to finalize the “big bill” by the Fourth of July.

If enacted as currently drafted, the House’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” would make permanent Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, while adding new tax breaks for tip income, overtime pay and older Americans, among other provisions.

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The House bill also approved historic spending cuts to programs for low-income families, including Medicaid health coverage and SNAP, formerly known as food stamps.

“Overall, the [Senate] bill is not going to be that much different,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

But there will be “a lot of debate” about the Medicaid provision, as well as other changes, he said.

Here are some other issues to watch during negotiations, policy experts say.

Fiscal hawks could ‘stop the process’

With control of Congress, Republicans are using a process called “budget reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster and only needs a simple majority vote to clear the upper chamber.

But some GOP senators have cost concerns about the House-approved bill.

“We have enough to stop the process until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit,” Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said last week on CNN’s ‘State of the Union.’

An earlier version of the House package could raise the deficit by an estimated $3.8 trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. However, the agency hasn’t released an updated score to reflect the bill’s last-minute changes.

Other cost estimates for the House-passed reconciliation bill have ranged between $2 to $3 trillion over 10 years.

Under reconciliation, the Senate bill also must follow the “Byrd Rule,” which bans anything unrelated to federal revenue or spending.

After the Senate vote, House lawmakers must approve changes to the bill, which could be tricky with a slim Republican majority.

“That’s where the fight is really going to happen,” Gleckman said.

A lower ‘SALT’ deduction limit

One sticking point during the House debate was the current $10,000 limit on the federal deduction for state and local taxes, known as “SALT,” which is scheduled to sunset after 2025.

Enacted by Trump via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017, the $10,000 cap has been a key issue for certain lawmakers in high-tax states like New York, New Jersey and California.

Before TCJA, filers who itemized tax breaks could claim an unlimited deduction on state and local income taxes, along with property taxes. But the so-called alternative minimum tax reduced the benefit for some higher earners.

After lengthy debate, House Republicans approved a $40,000 SALT limit. If enacted, the higher cap would apply to 2025 and phase out for incomes over $500,000.

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But the SALT limit is likely to be lower than $40,000 after Senate negotiations, experts say.

Staying closer to the current $10,000 cap “seems like a very natural place to start,” but the final number could be higher, said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.

Child tax credit could be more generous

The Senate could also expand the child tax credit further, policy experts say.

If enacted in its current form, the House bill would make permanent the maximum $2,000 credit passed via the TCJA, which will otherwise revert to $1,000 after 2025.

The House measure would also make the highest child tax credit $2,500 from 2025 through 2028. After that, the credit’s top value would revert to $2,000 and be indexed for inflation.

But some senators, including Josh Hawley, R-Mo., have called for a bigger tax break. Vice President JD Vance also floated a higher child tax credit during the campaign in August.

With the House-approved tax breaks favoring higher earners, “there’s some recognition that they need to do a little more” for families, Gleckman said.

“That’s going to be a fun one to watch,” he said of the upcoming Senate debate.

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How to save on summer travel in 2025

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Klaus Vedfelt | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Earlier this spring, consumers were feeling good about their summer vacation prospects. More people were planning to take a trip compared to last year, and summer travel budgets were up, too, according to a new report from Deloitte.

But just a few weeks later — after President Donald Trump announced widescale tariffs and the stock market dropped precipitously, bubbling up recession fears — some would-be vacationers abruptly scaled back their spending plans, a second round of the survey found.

About 53% of respondents plan to take leisure vacations this summer, up from 48% in 2024, according to a new report by Deloitte. 

We still see a strong summer travel season, but perhaps with a more frugal approach.

Kate Ferrara

the transportation, hospitality and services sector leader at Deloitte

The report is based on two surveys: one was conducted between March 26 and April 1, 2025, and another between April 7 and April 9. The first survey reached 1,794 travelers and 2,132 non-travelers while the second reached 1,064 travelers and 880 non-travelers.

Initially, Deloitte found, the average summer travel budget was set to grow 21% year over year, to $4,967. In the second round of the survey, travelers expected to spend just 13% more than last year, or about $4,606.

When looking at budgets for their longest trip of the season, respondents initially planned to spend an average $3,987, 13% more than 2024. That anticipated budget declined to $3,471 in the second poll, an increase of less than 1% from a year ago. 

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Deloitte conducted a second poll because the firm noticed “softness” in consumer spending across other areas of their research, said Kate Ferrara, the transportation, hospitality and services sector leader at Deloitte.

“We still see a strong summer travel season, but perhaps with a more frugal approach,” said Ferrara.

Travel costs are down

Broadly, travel costs have declined, which may help travelers looking to stretch their budget. Hotel room rates are down 2.4% from a year ago, according to a recent report by NerdWallet. Rental car costs are also down 2.1% in that same timeframe, while airfares are down 7.9%.

Round-trip domestic airfare for this summer is averaging $265 per ticket, according to the 2025 summer outlook by Hopper, a travel site. That’s down 3% from $274 in 2024 and down 8% since 2019, the lowest level in three years.

Travel costs for international travel are generally down, said Hayley Berg, the lead economist at Hopper. The average round-trip airfare between the U.S. and Europe, the most popular international destination, costs $850 per ticket this summer, down 8% from 2024, Hopper found.

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In spite of slightly lower prices for travel, people are generally spending more due to inflation, and might have less leftover money to spend on non-essential items like travel, said Deloitte’s Ferrara.

‘The root of all of our hacks’

Of those who reduced their summer travel budgets, 34% of respondents plan to cut back on their in-destination spending activity, such as food or paid guided excursions, Deloitte found. About 30% plan to stay with family and friends instead of paying for lodging, and 21% chose to drive instead of flying to their destination.

You can also save money this summer if you can be flexible with things like when you take the time off, your destination, what you do while you’re there and your mode of transportation, experts say.

“The root of all of our hacks for saving this summer is flexibility,” said Berg.

Airfare tends to spike or be higher during federal holiday weekends like the Fourth of July and Labor Day, Hopper found. This year, prices on these weekends will be about 34% higher compared to other weekends.

Instead of flying in the middle of the summer, consider delaying trips toward the end of the season, in late August or even early September, Berg said. Both price and travel demand will typically drop off by then as the new school year starts and employees go back to regular work schedules, she said.

What’s more, flying in the middle of the week can help save as much as 20% on airfare, per the site’s report.

Traveling on a Tuesday or Wednesday can also help vacationers save about $67 on a round trip domestic flight this summer, Hopper found. That flexibility can help travelers save over $100 on international trips to Europe or Asia. 

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Denmark raises retirement age to 70; U.S. might follow

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Aleksandarnakic | E+ | Getty Images

Denmark has moved to increase its retirement age to 70 — making it the highest retirement age in Europe.

Yet it may be difficult for the U.S. to follow its lead.

The new change in Denmark will apply to public pension retirements starting in 2040. Since 2006, the country has been adjusting its retirement age to reflect changes in life expectancy.

The U.S. does not technically have an official retirement age. At age 65, individuals become eligible for Medicare coverage. At age 66 to 67, depending on date of birth, an individual becomes eligible for full Social Security benefits based on their earnings record.

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However, those individuals who wait until age 70 to claim Social Security retirement benefits stand to get the biggest payout — an increase of 8% for each year beyond full retirement age. (The full retirement age is when beneficiaries are eligible for 100% of the benefits they’ve earned based on their work records.)

Yet few people wait until age 70 to claim benefits. While more than 90% of individuals would benefit from delaying Social Security until that age, only about 10% actually do, according to a 2023 paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

While age 70 is not the official U.S. retirement age, it is the threshold based on economists’ definition — the age at which you can’t accrue any more benefits, according to Teresa Ghilarducci, a labor economist and professor at The New School for Social Research.

“In the United States, it’s been 70 for decades, and we had the highest retirement age than any other country for years,” Ghilarducci said.

Retirement age in the U.S. up for debate

Yet there are efforts to officially bump up the U.S. retirement age higher.

In 1983, Congress passed legislation to gradually raise the full retirement age for Social Security from 65 to 67. That change is still getting phased in today, with people born in 1960 and later subject to the higher 67 retirement age.

In December, an amendment to raise the full retirement age to 70 was introduced by Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., during last-minute efforts to advance legislation that increased Social Security benefits for certain public pensioners.

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The bill, the Social Security Fairness Act, was voted into law. However, the proposal to raise the retirement age was struck down.

Paul called for raising the retirement age by three months per year until it reached age 70, to reflect current life expectancies. The change would have created nearly $400 billion in savings for the program, while the Social Security Fairness Act added $200 billion in costs to the program over 10 years.

Other Republican proposals have likewise called for raising the retirement age.

The Social Security Administration faces looming depletion dates for the trust funds it relies on to help pay benefits. To help resolve that issue, lawmakers may consider raising taxes, cutting benefits or a combination of both. Raising the retirement age is effectively a benefit cut.

Like the changes enacted in 1983, raising the retirement age could be on the menu.

Denmark’s move ‘sends a signal’ to work longer

Urbazon | E+ | Getty Images

Denmark’s move to raise the retirement age to 70 is not a surprise, experts say.

In 2023, research published by the Danish Center for Social Science Research found increasing good health and educational resources for 60- to 70-year-olds, along with higher demand for older workers, could point to retirement age increases in the future.

In 2025, Denmark residents can retire with public pensions when they are 67. That will gradually increase to age 70 as of 2040.

“That means simply that younger people today will have to work longer before they can go on retirement,” said Jesper Rangvid, professor of finance at the Copenhagen Business School and co-director of its Pension Research Centre.

That retirement age affects everybody entitled to basic public pension income, according to Rangvid. However, those with private pension savings may retire earlier.

“There’s nothing that prevents you from retiring earlier if you have the funds and the means to do so,” Rangvid said.

Denmark does offer options for early retirement, including an early pension. However, raising the retirement age conveys a message, Rangvid said.

“It sends a signal that this is what the positions would like, that you should work longer,” Rangvid said.

Retirement age increases in U.S. may be problematic

Anchiy | Istock | Getty Images

Retirement experts say raising the U.S. retirement age may not present the same solution for the population that it does in Denmark.

Denmark has a much more “equal society” when it comes to income, wealth, education and life expectancy compared to the United States, said Alicia Munnell, senior advisor at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

In the U.S., government data shows a stark difference between the life expectancy for those at the bottom and top income quartiles, Munnell said.

“When you have such a big, big difference, any across-the-board increase in the retirement age would be foolish,” Munnell said. “It’d be immensely harmful to those at the bottom who already receive benefits for a shorter period of time.”

A policy to raise the retirement age may also be problematic for another reason — it would take time to phase the change in, according to Andrew Biggs, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

For example, Congress may enact a higher retirement age that starts to go into effect in 10 years, and then it would take 30 years for people with the higher retirement age to go through the system.

While moving the age from say 67 to 69 would produce savings for the program in the long run, “they’re going to need the money right now,” Biggs said.

Retirement age and the economy

The welfare reform that began in Denmark in 2006 — whereby the retirement age increased with life expectancy — has been “extremely important” for the country’s economy, according to Rangvid.

“We have basically no public debt at all,” Rangvid said.

In contrast, the U.S. faces high national debt that requires the country to spend more on interest payments than on the military.

Budget legislation that is currently under consideration in Congress could add an estimated $3.3 trillion to the debt including interest, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

That package would not touch Social Security or its retirement age. However, other proposals have suggested that change, a benefit cut that would be a “pretty powerful lever” toward helping to resolve the program’s funding issues, according to Munnell.

One proposal scored by the Social Security Administration’s actuaries found raising the full retirement age to 70 would eliminate 26% of the program’s 75-year shortfall.

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