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How much cash you need to set aside to prepare for a recession

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As investors face economic uncertainty, financial advisors have guidelines for how much cash they should have set aside.

Despite second-quarter economic growth, nearly 60% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is currently in a recession, according to a June survey of 2,000 adults from Affirm.

While Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan raised recession forecasts in August, other experts still expect an economic “soft landing,” meaning the Federal Reserve’s policy won’t cause a downturn.

Meanwhile, inflation continues to ease, but a weaker-than-expected jobs report for July triggered stock market volatility last week.

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Amid the uncertainty, nearly 60% of Americans aren’t comfortable with their level of emergency savings, up from 48% in 2021, according to an annual Bankrate survey that polled more than 1,000 U.S. adults in May.

As of the polling, some 27% of those surveyed had no emergency savings — the highest percentage since 2020, Bankrate found.

Regardless of the economic climate, investors need emergency savings to cover expenses in the event of a job loss or other unexpected bills. Here’s how much cash to set aside, according to financial advisors.

Dual earners: Three months is a rule of thumb

Double-income families should aim to save at least three months of living expenses, according to certified financial planner Greg Giardino, vice president of Wealth Enhancement Group in Oakland, New Jersey. 

However, you could adjust that guideline “depending on the reliability of those income sources,” he said. For example, commissioned workers with unpredictable cash flow may need more than tenured professors.

Building that level of cash reserves isn’t easy. Only 44% of Americans have three months of expenses saved for emergencies, according to Bankrate’s survey.

Single income: Save six months or more

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Boston-based CFP and enrolled agent Catherine Valega, founder of Green Bee Advisory, said she is “more conservative than most other advisors” and recommends 12 to 18 months of living expenses in “safe, liquid investments” for single earners.

Although the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates in September, investors still have “high-yield savings opportunities,” she added.

Entrepreneurs: Keep up to one year of expenses

With unsteady income, entrepreneurs or small business owners could also benefit from higher levels of savings — eight to 12 months of expenses, according to Giardino of Wealth Enhancement Group.

Of course, the exact amount for emergency savings depends on your unique circumstances and your family’s needs.

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Deferred capital gains tax on mutual funds: Lawmakers pitch rule change

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If you own mutual funds, year-end payouts can trigger a surprise tax bill — even when you haven’t sold the underlying investment. But some lawmakers want to change that.

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, this week introduced a bill, known as the Generate Retirement Ownership Through Long-Term Holding, or GROWTH, Act. If enacted, the bill would defer reinvested mutual fund capital gains taxes until investors sell their shares.

Bipartisan House lawmakers introduced a similar bill in March.

Why mutual funds incur capital gains tax

When you own mutual funds in a pre-tax 401(k) or individual retirement account, growth is tax-deferred. But if you hold assets in a brokerage account, capital gains distributions and dividends incur yearly taxes.

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Depending on performance, some mutual funds can spit off substantial gains during the fourth quarter. In 2024, some paid double-digit distributions, Morningstar estimated.

These payouts are subject to long-term capital gains taxes of 0%, 15% or 20%, depending on your taxable income. Some higher earners also pay an extra 3.8% surcharge on investment earnings.

About $7 trillion of long-term mutual fund assets held outside of retirement accounts could be impacted by the legislation, according to the Investment Company Institute, which represents the asset management industry.

Bill would ‘provide parity’ for mutual funds

In a statement Wednesday, Cornyn described the mutual fund proposal as a “no-brainer” that would “help provide parity with other investment options.”

If enacted, the proposal would “incentivize Americans to save and invest for their long-term goals” without the stress of an “unexpected tax bill,” Eric Pan, president and CEO of the Investment Company Institute, said in a statement following the bill’s introduction.

However, it’s unclear whether the bill will advance amid competing priorities. Lawmakers are wrestling over President Donald Trump‘s multi-trillion-dollar tax and spending package, which passed in the House on Thursday, and could face hurdles in the Senate.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has also asked Congress to raise the debt ceiling before August to avert a government shutdown.

Switch to exchange-traded funds

While deferring yearly taxes could benefit some investors, you could also make portfolio changes, financial experts say.

You can avoid mutual fund payouts by switching to similar exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, which typically disburse less income, Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida, previously told CNBC.

Of course, the trade could also trigger taxes if the mutual fund has embedded gains, which may require some planning, he said.

Alternatively, investors could opt to keep mutual funds in tax-deferred accounts, such as pre-tax 401(k)s or IRAs.

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What Medicaid, SNAP cuts in House Republican bill mean for benefits

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A “Save Medicaid” sign is affixed to the podium for the House Democrats’ press event to oppose the Republicans’ budget on the House steps of the Capitol on Tuesday, February 25, 2024. 

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The multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package passed by the House of Representatives on Thursday includes historic spending cuts to Medicaid health coverage and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.

Now, it is up to the Senate to consider the changes — and to perhaps propose its own.

As it stands, the legislation — called the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” — would slash Medicaid spending by roughly $700 billion and SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, by about $300 billion.

“Bottom line is, a lot of people will lose benefits, including people who are entitled to these benefits and who are not the target population of this bill,” said Jennifer Wagner, director of Medicaid eligibility enrollment at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

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The cuts to Medicaid and SNAP — the largest in the programs’ histories — come as the reconciliation bill would add roughly $3 trillion to the nation’s debt including interest over the next decade, estimates the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

To help pay for a variety of tax perks included in the bill, House Republicans have targeted Medicaid and SNAP for savings.

“We don’t want any waste, fraud or abuse,” President Donald Trump said Tuesday on Newsmax when asked about prospective Medicaid changes. “Other than that, we’re leaving it.”

Likewise, some Republican leaders have pointed to rooting out abuse of SNAP benefits.

One way House Republicans are seeking to curb the programs’ spending is through new work requirements.

New Medicaid work requirements to get earlier date

Under the House proposal, new Medicaid work requirements will apply to people who are covered through the Affordable Care Act expansion. To be eligible, those individuals will need to participate in qualifying activities for at least 80 hours per month unless they can prove they have an approved exemption, according to Jennifer Tolbert, deputy director of KFF’s Program on Medicaid and the Uninsured.

In last-minute negotiations, House Republicans moved the date for implementing those work requirements to no later than Dec. 31, 2026, up from a previously proposed effective date of Jan. 1, 2029 — around two years earlier than the original version, CBPP’s Wagner noted.

Notably, it also gives states permission to start implementing the work requirements earlier than that date.

“On the Medicaid side, the work requirement is arguably the harshest provision,” Wagner said. “It will lead to the greatest cuts of enrollment in Medicaid.”

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The new accelerated timeline also doesn’t allow time for rulemaking, a process by which the public can submit comments, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services may respond to those submissions, Wagner noted. Instead, the legislative proposal calls for guidance to be issued by the end of 2025, which she said is a “big deal” because it eliminates the opportunity for adjustments to be made in response to public comments.

Moving up the effective date also limits the ability to conduct public outreach to notify individuals of the coming changes, said Tolbert of KFF. States will also have less time to adjust their systems to track whether individuals are working the required number of hours or engaging in other necessary activities, she said.

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Within the work requirements, the House also moved to limit the discretion to determine other medical conditions that may make someone exempt that had been in the original version, Wagner said.

Notably, the proposal also calls for states to conduct more frequent eligibility redeterminations for adults who are eligible for Medicaid through Affordable Care Act expansions. Starting Dec. 31, 2026, states will be required to conduct redeterminations every six months, compared to current requirements that require eligibility reviews within 12 months of changes in a beneficiary’s circumstances, according to KFF.

The increased frequency of the redeterminations are “likely to have a big impact,” Tolbert said.

Ultimately, the work requirements may make it difficult for people to access the health coverage they need, she said.

“What this may end up doing is having the opposite of the intended effect,” Tolbert said. “They may lose access to the very treatments and services that are enabling them to work.”

SNAP work requirements would be expanded

Under the House Republican bill, work requirements would also be expanded for SNAP benefits.

Individuals ages 18 to 54 who have no dependents and are able to work are already face SNAP benefit limitations based on 80-hour per month work requirements.

The proposal would extend those requirements to individuals ages 55 to 64, as well as households with children, unless they are under age seven. In addition, states would also be limited in the flexibility they may provide with waivers of the work requirements or discretionary exemptions, according to the Urban Institute.

In addition, federal funding cuts would make it so states would have to contribute more toward benefits and administration of the program.

Ultimately, those changes could take away food assistance for millions, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

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‘Big beautiful’ tax bill skipped ACA credits: How it affects insurance

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Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) (R) talks with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) while attend an event to mark the 14 anniversary of the passage of the Affordable Care Act at the U.S. Capitol on March 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. 

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The multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package House Republican passed on Thursday contains a multitude of changes that may affect consumers’ finances.

But the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is missing something health care advocates hoped to see: an extension of the premium tax credits under the enhanced Affordable Care Act that are set to expire at the end of the year. The credits’ absence is notable when the bill includes other proposed changes to the ACA marketplace, experts say.

The ACA’s enhanced premium credits help make health insurance policies through the marketplace more affordable. Eligible applicants can use the credit to lower insurance premium costs upfront or claim the tax break when filing their return. 

Instead of a lower-income person paying 2% of their income on their premium, they pay nothing, according to KFF. Higher income people, who were originally ineligible for credits, currently pay no more than 8.5% of their income on their premium.

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Without the extension, nearly all subsidized ACA enrollees can expect their monthly premiums to rise, said Cynthia Cox, vice president and director of the program on the ACA at KFF.

For example, a family of four making $85,000 would have to pay an additional $313 in premiums for coverage in 2026 and face a $900 increase in their out-of-pocket maximum, according to an April report by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

“Pretty much everyone, almost everybody who’s buying their own health insurance, now would see their costs go up,” Cox said.

Here’s what to know if you buy health insurance through the federal marketplace.

Tax credits boosted ACA marketplace enrollment

The extended subsidies were passed via the American Rescue Plan Act during the pandemic, and covered plans in 2021 and 2022. The Inflation Reduction Act extended the benefit until the end of 2025. 

The premium tax credits made health insurance purchased through the marketplace much more attractive and affordable for people, Cox said.

Since the extended tax credits have been in place, the enrollment in ACA marketplace grew from 12 million in 2021 to a record 24.2 million in 2025, according to a February report by the Commonwealth Fund. 

But if the benefits expire, “we’re basically back to the same Affordable Care Act that existed the last time Trump was president,” Cox said. 

Some consumers may lose eligibility

If premium tax credits aren’t extended, some people may see their costs rise high enough that they can’t afford coverage. Under the original version of the ACA, middle-income households were often priced out of the health care subsidies.

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If we go back to earlier thresholds, those who earn more than four times the federal poverty level — $62,000 for an individual or $128,600 for a family of four with 2026 coverage — would lose eligibility for subsidies and would have to pay the full cost for their health plans, according to KFF.

Researchers at KFF anticipate that between the potential lapse of the credits coupled with the proposals, enrollment could shrink by one-third, leaving about 8 million uninsured in the U.S.

One change that is in the House GOP tax bill would make both the share of income that people pay for premiums after tax credits and the maximum out-of-pocket limit 4.5% higher in 2026 than they would have been without the rule, according to Gideon Lukens, senior fellow at the CBPP. He wrote a report in April about the ACA changes in the House proposal and the absence of the premium tax credits.

‘An issue of contention’

The premium tax benefits have been “an issue of contention” among lawmakers as Republicans have not indicated an interest in extending the enhanced premium credits any further, said Jonathan Burks, executive vice president of economic and health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Yet, there have been at least two GOP senators that are interested in extending the credits, KFF’s Cox said.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, has said she supports extending the enhanced subsidies to help people afford premiums. “I think we’re going to need to continue these premium tax credits,” Murkowski said in an interview with the Alaska Beacon in January. 

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., also expressed interest in extending the premiums in an interview with AxiosPro in March.

Neither Murkowski nor Tillis responded to CNBC for comment.

It’s possible that the ACA premium tax credits could be addressed in a different piece of legislation later in the year, Cox said.

“But at least right now, that’s not in this bill that’s being debated right now,” she said.

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