Personal Finance

How much cash you need to set aside to prepare for a recession

Published

5 months ago

August 14, 2024

Pascal Broze | Onoky | Getty Images

As investors face economic uncertainty, financial advisors have guidelines for how much cash they should have set aside.

Despite second-quarter economic growth, nearly 60% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is currently in a recession, according to a June survey of 2,000 adults from Affirm.

While Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan raised recession forecasts in August, other experts still expect an economic “soft landing,” meaning the Federal Reserve’s policy won’t cause a downturn.

Meanwhile, inflation continues to ease, but a weaker-than-expected jobs report for July triggered stock market volatility last week.

Amid the uncertainty, nearly 60% of Americans aren’t comfortable with their level of emergency savings, up from 48% in 2021, according to an annual Bankrate survey that polled more than 1,000 U.S. adults in May.

As of the polling, some 27% of those surveyed had no emergency savings — the highest percentage since 2020, Bankrate found.

Regardless of the economic climate, investors need emergency savings to cover expenses in the event of a job loss or other unexpected bills. Here’s how much cash to set aside, according to financial advisors.

Dual earners: Three months is a rule of thumb

Double-income families should aim to save at least three months of living expenses, according to certified financial planner Greg Giardino, vice president of Wealth Enhancement Group in Oakland, New Jersey.

However, you could adjust that guideline “depending on the reliability of those income sources,” he said. For example, commissioned workers with unpredictable cash flow may need more than tenured professors.

Building that level of cash reserves isn’t easy. Only 44% of Americans have three months of expenses saved for emergencies, according to Bankrate’s survey.

Single income: Save six months or more

Generally, single individuals or families with a single income should save at least six months of expenses, experts say.

But higher levels of cash reserves could offer more flexibility when faced with a job loss or economic downturn.

Douglas Boneparth, a CFP and president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York, prefers six to nine months of savings for single earners.

“I’ve never come across someone who was upset that they had a little bit more cash than they needed,” said Boneparth, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

JPMorgan's recession outlook: Here's what to know

Boston-based CFP and enrolled agent Catherine Valega, founder of Green Bee Advisory, said she is “more conservative than most other advisors” and recommends 12 to 18 months of living expenses in “safe, liquid investments” for single earners.

Although the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates in September, investors still have “high-yield savings opportunities,” she added.

Entrepreneurs: Keep up to one year of expenses

With unsteady income, entrepreneurs or small business owners could also benefit from higher levels of savings — eight to 12 months of expenses, according to Giardino of Wealth Enhancement Group.

Of course, the exact amount for emergency savings depends on your unique circumstances and your family’s needs.

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Personal Finance

Missing quarterly tax payment could trigger ‘unexpected penalties’

Published

32 minutes ago

January 9, 2025

Business Finance News

Israel Sebastian | Moment | Getty Images

The fourth-quarter estimated tax deadline for 2024 is Jan. 15, and missing a payment could trigger “unexpected penalties and fees” when filing your return, according to the IRS.

Typically, estimated taxes apply to income without withholdings, such as earnings from freelance work, a small business or investments. But you could still owe taxes for full-time or retirement income if you didn’t withhold enough.

You could also owe fourth-quarter taxes for year-end bonuses, stock dividends, capital gains from mutual fund payouts or profits from crypto sales and more, the IRS said.

Federal income taxes are “pay as you go,” meaning the IRS expects payments throughout the year as you make income, said certified public accountant Brian Long, senior tax advisor at Wealth Enhancement in Minneapolis.

If you miss the Jan. 15 deadline, you may incur an interest-based penalty based on the current interest rate and how much you should have paid. That penalty compounds daily.

Tax withholdings, estimated payments or a combination of the two, can “help avoid a surprise tax bill at tax time,” according to the IRS.

What to know about the ‘safe harbor’ rules

One way to avoid penalties is by following the “safe harbor” rule, which means “you’re meeting that [IRS] pay-as-you-go requirement,” according to Long.

To satisfy the rule, you must pay at least 90% of your 2024 tax liability or 100% of your 2023 taxes, whichever is smaller.

The threshold increases to 110% if your 2023 adjusted gross income was $150,000 or higher, which you can find on line 11 of Form 1040 from your 2023 tax return.

However, you could still owe taxes for 2024 if you make more than expected and don’t adjust your tax payments.

“The good thing about this last quarterly payment is that most individuals should have their year-end numbers finalized,” said Sheneya Wilson, a CPA and founder of Fola Financial in New York.

How to make quarterly estimated tax payments

Personal Finance

California wildfire relief: Where to give

Published

3 hours ago

January 9, 2025

Business Finance News

Firefighters work as a brush fire burns in Pacific Palisades, California on Jan. 7, 2025.

David Swanson | AFP | Getty Images

Massive wildfires are devastating the Los Angeles area of Southern California. As of Thursday morning, at least five people were killed, more than 100,000 residents have been ordered to evacuate and nearly 2,000 homes and businesses were destroyed.

Many people around the country, and world, want to help, whether by donating money or emergency supplies. However, there are already fundraising scams trying to capitalize on the crisis.

To make sure your funds get into the right hands, third-party evaluator Charity Navigator compiled a list of highly rated nonprofits currently engaged in relief and recovery efforts in the Pacific Palisades and the surrounding areas — including support for first responders.

“We’ve vetted the organizations that are there,” said Michael Thatcher, CEO of Charity Navigator. “These are all outstanding.”

Here are some of the groups that earned high marks from the organization for providing immediate support to the victims of the wildfires and wildfire-affected communities.

How to avoid wildfire-related scams

Unfortunately, as with any high-pressure donation, there will be an increase in fraudulent behavior, said Thatcher, “and what we encourage people to do is be proactive rather than reactive to a solicitation.”

As a general rule, rather than follow a link in a text, email or on social media, go directly to a charity’s website or find a relief effort through a site such as Charity Navigator, BBB Wise Giving Alliance or CharityWatch, Thatcher said.

“There’s a safety element and a legitimacy element,” he said. “At the end of the day we want to make a difference to the people affected by this fire.”

The BBB Wise Giving Alliance also offers tips for donating to the California wildfire relief efforts.

It recommends donors check whether a charity is accredited and take extra precautions on crowdfunding sites, including reviewing how postings are screened as well what transaction fees may apply.

In addition, be wary of relief appeals that have vague descriptions or do not explain what programs your support will assist.

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Personal Finance

New Social Security increases may prompt higher tax bills, Medicare premiums

Published

22 hours ago

January 8, 2025

Business Finance News

Sdi Productions | E+ | Getty Images

Nearly 3 million individuals are poised to see their Social Security benefits increase, thanks to new changes signed into law by President Joe Biden this week. But with the higher checks could come additional tax burdens.

The Social Security Fairness Act — which passed by a bipartisan majority in both the House and Senate — ends reductions of Social Security benefits for certain individuals who also receive pension income from work in the public sector as firefighters, police officers, teachers and local, state and federal employees.

Those beneficiaries are set to see an increase to their monthly benefit checks. Because the legislation applies to benefits paid throughout 2024, they will also receive lump-sum payments to make up for that time.

The details of how those increases will be implemented are now being determined, according to the Social Security Administration.

In total, the benefit increases will cost $196 billion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The additional outlay will move Social Security’s trust fund depletion dates six months closer. The program’s combined trust funds may pay full benefits until 2035, at which point just 83% of scheduled benefits may be payable, the program’s trustees projected last year.

How Social Security benefits may change

About 2.1 million beneficiaries — those who were affected by the Windfall Elimination Provision, or WEP — may see $360 more in monthly benefits on average, according to CBO estimates as of December 2025. The WEP, which has now been eliminated, reduced Social Security benefits for workers who also had pension or disability benefits from jobs where they did not pay Social Security payroll taxes.

Additionally, about 380,000 spouses would see average benefit increases of $700 and 390,000 surviving spouses would see an average of $1,190 more, according to CBO’s estimates for December 2025.

Those beneficiaries were affected by the now-defunct Government Pension Offset, or GPO, which reduced Social Security benefits for spouses, widows and widowers who also receive their own pensions from public sector work.

The elimination of the provisions in many ways simplifies retirement income planning for affected beneficiaries, financial advisors say.

“For the people who are affected by this, you’re looking at a pretty significant increase, in many cases, of what their retirement income is going to be,” said Michael Daley, director of marketing at HealthView Services. “It’s good news for them.”

For financial planners and their clients, the challenge now is gauging how much of a benefit increase to expect and when to expect it, said Joe Elsasser, founder and president of Covisum, a Social Security claiming software company.

The extra income may also present some complications when it comes to affected beneficiaries’ taxes and Medicare premiums, experts say.

Beneficiaries could see higher taxes on benefits

Social Security beneficiaries may have their benefits taxed if their income falls over certain thresholds, experts say.

The additional money may also push some affected beneficiaries into higher tax brackets, according to HealthView Services.

Notably, President-elect Donald Trump has said he wants to nix taxes on Social Security benefit income, though it remains to be seen whether that change will be put into effect. However, per current rules, up to 85% of Social Security benefit income may be taxed.

The income thresholds upon which those levies are based are not adjusted annually for inflation. Consequently, more beneficiaries are subject to those taxes on benefits over time, including middle class households, Daley said.

Those levies are determined based on a formula called combined income — the sum of adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest and half of Social Security benefits.

Maximizing your Social Security benefits

Individuals pay taxes on up to 50% of their benefits if their combined income is between $25,000 and $34,000, or for married couples with between $32,000 and $44,000.

Individuals may pay taxes on up to 85% of their benefits if their combined income is more than $34,000; or for married couples with more than $44,000.

“Because Social Security benefits are taxed differently than everything else, people are going to really want to pay attention to their other sources of income,” Elsasser said of the anticipated benefit increases and lump sum payments.

For example, if a retiree has both a taxable account and traditional individual retirement account, they may want to prioritize withdrawals from the taxable account because only the gains would be taxed rather than the entire withdrawal, Elsasser explained. In the event the lump-sum payment of retroactive Social Security benefits is not distributed, they may take an IRA withdrawal later in the year.

Beneficiaries may see higher Medicare costs

Additional benefit income for individuals affected by the Social Security Fairness Act may also result in higher income-based surcharges for Medicare Parts B and D.

Medicare beneficiaries with higher incomes must pay what’s known as income-related monthly adjustment amounts, or IRMAAs, for their Part B and Part D premiums.

“If you get a lump sum but you’re not paying attention to your other incomes, you could unwittingly be pushed into higher Medicare premiums two years down the road,” Elsasser said.

That will mostly be a concern for people who are on the cusp of the income thresholds, he said.

In 2025, Medicare Part B beneficiaries who file individual tax returns with $106,000 or less in modified adjusted gross income — or married couples who file jointly with $212,000 or less — pay a standard monthly premium of $185 per month.

Beneficiaries above those income thresholds pay higher Part B premium payments, based on an IRMAA. This year’s rates are based on income on tax returns filed in 2023.

In 2025, Part D beneficiaries over the $106,000 threshold for individuals and $212,000 for married couples are also subject to income-related monthly adjustment amounts in addition to their plan premiums. Those monthly premiums are also based on yearly income reported on tax filings for 2023. In 2025, the national base Part D premium is $36.78.

Steps to take now

Beneficiaries who are affected by the Social Security Fairness Act should consider consulting with a financial advisor to assess the implications of the change on their personal financial circumstances, said Ron Mastrogiovanni, chairman and CEO of HealthView Services.

Additionally, it would help to sit down with a certified public accountant when filing their taxes to plan for 2025, he said.

The Social Security Administration also plans to provide more guidance on the new law as more details become available.

For now, the agency recommends verifying that direct deposit and mailing address it has on file is still accurate. To update that information, the Social Security recommends changing it online or calling or visiting a Social Security office in person.