Personal Finance
How Smoot-Hawley Tariff sparked the ‘mother of all trade wars’
Published
3 weeks agoon
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QINGDAO, CHINA – NOVEMBER 8, 2023 – Container ships frequently enter and exit the Qianwan Container Terminal of Qingdao Port in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, Nov 8, 2023. (Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
A trade war is brewing — and, if history is any guide, the U.S. economy may not be too happy about it.
President Donald Trump levied a 10% tariff on all imports from China starting Tuesday. In response, China retaliated with its own tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports, starting Feb. 10.
Experts believe these are just the initial salvos of a broader trade war between the two nations.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is on the precipice of a trade spat with Canada and Mexico. Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on the European Union — and, if that happens, the nations have vowed retribution.
“I will never support the idea of fighting allies,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Monday. “But of course, if the U.S. puts tough terms on Europe, we need a collective and robust response.”
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The current animosity bears many similarities to an earlier episode in U.S. history — the Tariff Act of 1930 — which triggered an all-out trade war and exacerbated the Great Depression, according to economic historians.
The law, known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, was “one of the most controversial tariff acts ever enacted by Congress,” Doug Irwin, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and past president of the Economic History Association, wrote in 2020.
It was also the last instance of a trade war involving the U.S., prior to Trump’s first term, said Kris James Mitchener, an economics professor at Santa Clara University who studies economic history and political economy.
Smoot-Hawley sparked “the mother of all trade wars,” Mitchener said.
What was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff?
Hawley (left) and Reed Smoot in April 1929, shortly before the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act passed the House
Source: Library of Congress
If the Smoot-Hawley Tariff sounds vaguely familiar, it may be thanks to pop culture: The 1986 movie “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off” has a memorable scene in which a high school teacher drones on in a crawling monotone voice about the tariffs.
Among Smoot-Hawley’s chief aims was to safeguard U.S. farmers, who had expanded agricultural production during WWI but suffered after the war as European production came back online and prices collapsed, Mitchener said.
However, Congress expanded the scope of the tariffs considerably, extending beyond agriculture to include all sectors of the economy. The law got its name from its chief Republican supporters in Congress: Rep. Willis Hawley of Oregon, chair of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, and Sen. Reed Smoot of Utah, who chaired the Senate Finance Committee.
Smoot-Hawley was “broad,” putting tariffs on roughly 25% of all goods imported to the U.S. — about 800 to 900 different types of goods, Mitchener said.
If the U.S. puts tough terms on Europe, we need a collective and robust response.
Mette Frederiksen
prime minister of Denmark
Herbert Hoover, who had run for president on a platform to help farmers with protective tariffs, signed the law in June 1930, ignoring a petition signed by more than 1,000 economists asking him to veto the bill.
The law raised dutiable tariffs — tariffs on goods subject to import duties — by about six percentage points, on average, Mitchener said.
While that may not sound like much, those duties sparked a trade war with major U.S. trading partners, which was perhaps their “most important ramification,” wrote Irwin of Dartmouth College.
How did Smoot-Hawley provoke a trade war?
Smoot-Hawley raised the average tariff on dutiable imports to 47% from 40%, Irwin said. Depression-era price deflation ultimately helped push that average to almost 60% in 1932, he added.
Nine nations — Argentina, Australia, Canada, Cuba, France, Italy, Mexico, Spain and Switzerland — imposed retaliatory tariffs directed specifically at U.S. products, Mitchener said.
“Canada, which was heavily dependent on the U.S. market, retaliated almost immediately and imposed tariffs significant enough to put a sizable dent into American exports,” Irwin wrote.
That “tit-for-tat response” with targeted tariffs is the hallmark of a trade war, Mitchener said.
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Other nations formed trade blocs that excluded the U.S., Irwin wrote. Ultimately, 35 governments lodged official protests against Smoot-Hawley, Mitchener said.
The result: Global trade collapsed, exacerbating the Great Depression, which was the worst economic downturn in U.S. history, economists said. U.S. exports to retaliating nations fell by about 28% to 32%, said Mitchener. Further, nations that protested Smoot-Hawley also reduced their U.S. imports by 15% to 23%.
It was “among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history,” according to a historical overview on the U.S. Senate website.
Tariffs leading up to President Trump
The U.S. reversed course after realizing how tariffs can fuel foreign policy issues and contribute to world wars, said Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Stiefel Trade Policy Center of the CATO Institute.
The global economy is “like an intricate choreographed dance,” Lincicome said. “Tariffs are just kind of throwing a wrench in that dance.”
The average tariff rate for dutiable imports cratered from about 59% in 1932 to roughly 13% in 1950, and fell below 5% from the mid-1990s to 2015, according to a 2024 analysis by the CATO Institute.
Meanwhile, the average tariff rate across all imports — which include products not subject to tariffs — fell from about 20% in 1933 to below 2% from 2000 to 2019.
While presidents who preceded Trump, as well as President Joe Biden, have also used tariffs, they were enacted for different reasons and at different magnitudes, experts say.
These have not been rationales used for tariffs in the past.
Brett House
professor of professional practice in the economics division at Columbia Business School
Historically, “tariffs have been typically invoked by U.S. administrations when domestic industry has complained about competition from foreign suppliers,” said Brett House, professor of professional practice in the economics division at Columbia Business School.
For instance, during President Barack Obama’s second administration in 2013, the International Trade Commission issued “anti-dumping duties,” or a form of tariff, on washing machines specifically from Mexico and South Korea.
Years later, during his first term, Trump issued a tariff on washing machines as well, but it was global instead of narrowing it to specific countries. At the same time, Trump imposed other tariffs such as costs on steel and aluminum.
Other presidents, including George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon, had also put tariffs on steel, an industry that’s historically received federal protection, Irwin told CNBC. But Trump’s second term is unique in that he’s using tariffs in a “broad brush” manner — applied to all a nation’s goods, for example — something “no president in recent memory” has done, Irwin said.
Additionally, “what is very distinct about Trump’s tariff policy is the supposed justification for it, which is to try to discipline Canada and Mexico for the flow of illegal drugs and undocumented people across their borders,” House said.
“These have not been rationales used for tariffs in the past.”
Will history repeat?
The Smoot-Hawley-induced spat resembles today’s trade environment in a few key ways — including prominent trade partners calling for retaliation against U.S. policy, economists said.
For example, before reaching 11th-hour deals to delay 25% tariffs for one month, officials in Canada and Mexico vowed to fight back.
Canadian President Justin Trudeau on Saturday warned that his country would implement a 25% tariff on about $107 billion of U.S. goods. They included duties on meat, dairy, produce and other food products, and beer, wine and spirits.
China said it will impose 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas imports from the U.S., and 10% on American crude oil, agricultural machinery and certain cars.
“We’re already seeing a trade war unfold,” Irwin told CNBC.
Proposed tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico would shrink U.S. economic output by 0.4 percentage points and increase taxes on Americans by $1.1 trillion between 2025 and 2034, before accounting for any retaliation, according to an estimate by the Tax Foundation.
Of course, “whether it becomes a trade war and history repeats in that [Smoot-Hawley] dimension depends on the response of our trade partners and/or whether Trump is bluffing to get some sort of concession,” Mitchener wrote in an e-mail.
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Personal Finance
Student loan borrowers in SAVE will soon be booted. What to know
Published
21 hours agoon
February 22, 2025
Damircudic | E+ | Getty Images
Student loan borrowers who expected smaller monthly payments under the new Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, plan received some bad news on Feb. 18, when a U.S. appeals court blocked the program.
As a result, millions of people will need to switch to a new repayment plan soon.
The adjustment will likely be challenging, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.
“Borrowers who were in SAVE will have to pay more on their federal student loans, in some cases double or even triple the monthly loan payment,” Kantrowitz said.
The recent appeals court order, in addition to blocking SAVE, also ended student loan forgiveness under other income-driven repayment plans.
Here’s what borrowers need to know.
Why was the SAVE plan blocked?
The Biden administration rolled out the SAVE plan in the summer of 2023, describing it as “the most affordable student loan plan ever.”
However, Republican-backed states quickly filed lawsuits against the program. They argued that former President Joe Biden, with SAVE, was essentially trying to find a roundabout way to forgive student debt after the Supreme Court blocked his attempt at sweeping debt cancellation.
SAVE came with two key provisions that the the legal challenges targeted. It had lower monthly payments than any other income-driven repayment plan offered to student loan borrowers, and it led to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.
(Income-driven repayment plans set your monthly bill based on your income and family size, and used to lead to debt forgiveness after a certain period, but the terms vary.)
The 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Feb. 18 sided with the seven Republican-led states that filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Education’s repayment plan.
What happens to my forbearance?
While the legal challenges against SAVE were playing out, the Biden administration put student loan borrowers who had enrolled in the plan into an interest-free forbearance. That plan said the pause on any bill could last until December.
But now, Kantrowitz said, “It will likely end sooner under the Trump administration, within weeks or months.”
Do I need to enroll in another plan?
The answer is yes, you need to enroll in another plan.
Borrowers should start looking now at their other repayment options, experts said.
The recent appeals court order against SAVE also ended student loan forgiveness under many other income-driven repayment plans, including the Revised Pay-As-You-Earn repayment plan, or REPAYE.
Currently, only the Income-Based Repayment Plan, or IBR, leads to debt cancellation.
However, if you’re pursuing Public Service Loan Forgiveness, you should be eligible for debt cancellation after 10 years on any of the IDR plans, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit that helps borrowers navigate the repayment of their debt. (PSLF offers debt erasure for certain public servants after 10 years of payments.)
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“It’s also important to point out that all the IDR plans cross-pollinate for forgiveness,” Mayotte said. “If someone has been on PAYE for eight years and now switches to IBR, they will still have eight years under their belt toward IBR forgiveness.”
There are several tools available online to help you determine how much your monthly bill would be under different plans.
Meanwhile, the Standard Repayment Plan is a good option for borrowers who are not seeking or eligible for loan forgiveness and can afford the monthly payments, experts say. Under that plan, payments are fixed and borrowers typically make payments for up to 10 years.
What if I can’t afford the new payments?
If you can’t afford the monthly payments under your new repayment plan, you should first see if you qualify for a deferment, experts say. That’s because your loans may not accrue interest under that option, whereas they almost always do in a forbearance.
If you’re unemployed when student loan payments resume, you can request an unemployment deferment with your servicer. If you’re dealing with another financial challenge, meanwhile, you may be eligible for an economic hardship deferment.
Other, lesser-known deferments include the graduate fellowship deferment, the military service and post-active duty deferment and the cancer treatment deferment.
Student loan borrowers who don’t qualify for a deferment may request a forbearance.
Under this option, borrowers can keep their loans on hold for as long as three years. However, because interest accrues during the forbearance period, borrowers can be hit with a larger bill when it ends.
Personal Finance
Don’t wait to file your taxes this season, experts say. Here’s why
Published
2 days agoon
February 21, 2025
Images By Tang Ming Tung | Digitalvision | Getty Images
Tax identity theft remains a ‘serious problem’
One key reason to file your return early is to avoid tax identity theft, experts say. By filing sooner, you can block thieves from using your Social Security number to file a fraudulent return, Brewer said.
Tax-related identity theft continues to be a “serious problem,” with many victims facing processing and refund delays, National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins wrote in her January report to Congress.
At the end of fiscal year 2024, the average processing time to resolve identity theft victim assistance cases was more than 22 months, up from 19 months the previous year, Collins reported.
For the 2024 filing season, the IRS confirmed more than 15,600 identity theft returns through Feb. 29, 2024, up from about 12,600 in 2023, according to a Treasury report issued on April 30.
‘Measure twice, cut once’
Whether you’re filing early because you’re eager for a refund or want to protect yourself from identity theft, you’ll still need a complete and accurate return to avoid delays, experts say.
While many tax forms come in January, others won’t arrive until mid-February to March or longer, according to the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.
But once you have the necessary forms, “don’t be in a hurry to press ‘send,'” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.
You should always double-check key details like your name, Social Security number, banking information and other filing data. When it comes to return accuracy, aim to “measure twice, cut once,” he said.
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IRS layoffs could impact service
With thousands of IRS layoffs this week, some experts worry the cuts could impact taxpayer service.
But your refund shouldn’t be affected if you file an accurate return electronically and select direct deposit for payment, O’Saben said.
Typically, you can expect the IRS to process your e-filed return within 21 days. “Corrections or extra review” could take longer, according to the agency.
“Barring a [system] crash, I would expect business as usual,” O’Saben said. “There shouldn’t be an issue meeting the timeline that the IRS lays out.”
Personal Finance
Federal workers’ money questions answered
Published
2 days agoon
February 21, 2025
Protesters demonstrate in support of federal workers outside of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on Feb. 14, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images
On Feb. 11, Elizabeth Aniskevich, an attorney at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, received a notice that she was being terminated immediately.
“I was completely shocked,” said Aniskevich, 39. She had been with the CFPB for nine months and imagined spending her entire career in the federal government.
“I didn’t expect it to unfold this way,” she said.
More than a week later, she’s still scrambling for basic answers. “There’s no information about what’s going on with my benefits, or what I need to do with unemployment,” Aniskevich said.
She’s worried about how she’ll pay the mortgage on her Washington, D.C., apartment after her emergency savings runs out in a few months.
“I’ve worked really hard to be financially stable,” Aniskevich said.
Elizabeth Aniskevich.
Courtesy: Elizabeth Aniskevich
Aniskevich is one of thousands of federal workers laid off by the new Trump administration in recent weeks and thrown into financial and career uncertainty. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk‘s secretive government-slashing effort, the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, are working to shrink the federal workforce.
Losing one’s job is always difficult. But the suddenness and speed of the firings, which have affected offices from the Environmental Protection Agency to the U.S. Department of Education, have left workers especially in the dark about their rights and next steps, experts said.
“Most people would have selected the public sector because it has a reputation of being a more stable work environment than the private sector,” said Don Moynihan, a public policy professor at the University of Michigan. “But in this case, that stability proved to be an illusion.”
CNBC spoke with financial advisors and policy experts to get answers to some of the many important questions terminated federal workers likely have right now.
Workers may be able to appeal, take legal action
The Trump administration and Musk’s DOGE have largely targeted workers on a probationary status for cuts.
That’s because probationary workers, who have typically been in their position for a year or less, have fewer protections after they’re removed than do career civil servants, said David Eric Lewis, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University.
For example, probationary workers might not meet the requirements to appeal their termination to the U.S. Merit Systems Protection Board. The board reviews cases in which federal workers were laid off or suspended.
Still, there are limited cases when they can appeal, experts said. You should speak to an employment lawyer or your union representative for more details, experts recommend.
The name and logo for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is seen scraped off the door of its building in Washington, D.C., U.S., Feb. 20, 2025.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
“They can also seek legal relief,” Lewis said. Your union may help you file your lawsuit in federal court, he added.
It can be more effective to bring your legal challenge as a group, with other terminated federal workers, Lewis said.
“That’s what is happening,” he said. “There’s a hope that there is at least a stop to these orders.”
A federal judge Thursday denied a bid by labor unions to block the mass layoffs across the federal workforce. The National Treasury Employees Union alongside four other groups filed a lawsuit against the firings on Feb. 12.
What to know about unemployment benefits
Federal workers can collect unemployment benefits through the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) program. Some government employees — including ex-military personnel discharged under honorable conditions and former members of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration — receive benefits through a separate program, known as the Unemployment Compensation for Ex-servicemembers (UCX).
The jobless benefits, which are supposed to arrive within two or three weeks after you apply for them, are nearly identical to those of private-sector workers, said Michele Evermore, senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance.
States — as well as U.S. territories and the District of Columbia — administer the payments. Workers must submit an application with the appropriate workforce agency. You should apply in the state or district where your last official duty station was located, Evermore said.
Those working remotely on a full-time basis likely need to file a claim in their state of residence, Evermore said.
Workers should apply for unemployment as soon as possible, experts said. Delays are likely amid the purge of government workers.
Those claiming UCFE benefits will likely need to include certain documents with their claim, including a SF-8, or a Notice to Federal Employee About Unemployment Insurance, as well as a SF-50, or a Notification of Personnel Action, according to the U.S. Labor Department.
Those applying for UCX benefits should have a copy of their service and discharge documents — DD-214 or a similar form, the Labor Department said.
Federal employers are supposed to provide these forms to workers upon separation, but Aniskevich said the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau still hadn’t given her those documents as of Friday.
For now, she filed her unemployment application in Washington, D.C., without them.
“It’s stressful to have uncertainty about whether my claim can be processed given the lack of forms,” Aniskevich said.
Federal agencies appear to be citing lackluster performance as rationale for many job cuts in termination letters, experts said. Even so, workers should still apply for benefits, Evermore said. The cause must generally rise to the level of “gross misconduct” to prevent people from receiving aid.
This could delay benefits if the government contests a claim, however, experts said.
Health coverage for terminated workers
Meanwhile Chris, who worked as a transportation program specialist at the Federal Transit Administration, was laid off on February 14. Like Aniskevich, he was a probationary worker, and had been employed by the FTA for around nine months. (He requested to use his first name only, out of fear of retaliation from the Trump administration.)
Despite the financial stability usually associated with a federal job, he found himself with no protections.
“There was no severance pay,” said Chris, 33, who is based in the Los Angeles area.
Chris did learn that his health benefits will continue for 31 calendar days after Valentine’s Day.
Similarly, federal employees should try to determine the specific date their health coverage will end, experts said. While the timelines may vary, most probationary workers will need to find new health insurance soon.
Those who wish to continue with their current health care should look into the federal government’s Temporary Continuation of Coverage, experts say. Under this option, you’re able to extend your federal workplace plan for up to 18 months after termination. (It’s similar to COBRA, or the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, for private-sector workers.)
Keep in mind that, with TCC, you’ll be responsible for the full cost of your premiums, plus any administrative fees.
“It’s going to be [a] pretty big hike,” said Brennan Rhule, a Reston, Virginia-based certified financial planner who specializes in federal workers.
If the new premium cost is too high to shoulder under TCC, you may qualify for a special enrollment period of the Affordable Care Act marketplace, according to Kate Ende, leader of the policy team at the Consumers for Affordable Health Care, a nonprofit. The special enrollment period typically gives you 60 days to sign up for a marketplace plan after you lost your coverage.
Medicaid might also be an option, Ende said, and if you qualify you can enroll at any time for it.
Relief options for recurring bills
Federal workers concerned about staying current with their bills should reach out to their lenders and explain their situation, consumer advocates said.
For instance, contact your mortgage lender and ask about forbearance or deferment options, said John Breyault, vice president of public policy at the National Consumers League. If you’re a renter, landlords and property managers may offer temporary payment plans or deferments.
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Some auto lenders allow deferments, too, especially if you have a good payment track record. Meanwhile, your auto insurer may be able to adjust your coverage and lower your costs if you will no longer be driving long distances to work, Breyault said.
For utilities like electricity, water, gas, internet and phone service, see if your providers offer a grace period or deferred payments, Breyault said.
Those with student loan bills can request an unemployment deferment with their servicer.
Keep in mind that such concessions and breaks can be helpful in the near-term, but read the terms thoroughly. There could be long-term costs associated, such as interest continuing to accrue or other fees.
Watch out for ‘undoable’ retirement account missteps
Federal workers who find themselves unexpectedly out of work may be tempted to take money from their retirement plans. However, experts emphasize it is important to know the ins and outs of each plan’s rules to avoid unexpected costs.
“Before you do anything, make sure you talk to somebody who understands and can guide you,” said CFP Mark Keen, who is a federal benefits expert with the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association.
“Make sure that you don’t make any mistakes that are undoable,” said Keen, who is also a partner at Keen & Pocock.
Federal workers generally have access to a pension through the Federal Employee Retirement System, or FERS, and to a defined contribution savings plan, known as the Thrift Savings Plan, or TSP.
FERS provides a guaranteed income stream once a worker reaches a certain age, a perk that’s mostly unavailable in the private sector, Keen said.
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Federal workers may withdraw their FERS contributions if they leave federal employment, but that may not be the best choice. It will take a while to build your pension back up if you return to federal service, said Katelyn Murray, a chartered federal employee benefits consultant and director of relationship management at Serving Those Who Serve.
If you leave the balance intact, you retain the years of service you’ve accumulated, Murray said. Having a FERS pension also allows retirees to continue health coverage through the Federal Employees Health Benefits, or FEHB, in retirement.
Even if you’re not sure you may return to federal work, you may want to think twice before cashing out, Murray said.
“It’s more about flexibility and keeping your options open,” Murray said.
Federal workers may have some flexibility with a Thrift Savings Plan that is like a 401(k) plan and allows employees to make contributions that are matched by government agencies.
Generally, participants who are at least age 59½ can make withdrawals without penalties.
In some cases, workers may qualify for the Rule of 55, which may allow them to take withdrawals from the TSP without having to pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty, provided they are at least age 55 when they leave their job (or age 50 for some public safety employees).
If you haven’t found another job yet, you can’t take a TSP loan, but you may be able to look at doing a hardship withdrawal, Murray said. Importantly, by doing so you may incur taxes and/or penalties, as well as delay your anticipated retirement date.
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