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In its latest abortion case the Supreme Court seems to back Idaho

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IN 2022, five Supreme Court justices wrote that they were returning the issue of abortion to “legislative bodies”. Two years on, that sounds like wishful thinking: the court finds itself right back in the middle of America’s abortion battle. A month ago the issue was access to abortion pills—a fight opponents of abortion seem destined to lose. On April 24th the question was whether state bans that criminalise terminations are trumped by a federal law concerning emergency care.

The Emergency Medical Treatment and Labour Act (EMTALA), passed in 1986, requires hospitals receiving federal funding to offer “stabilising treatment” to people showing up in their emergency rooms (ERs). In 2022 the Biden administration notified hospitals that this duty includes offering abortion when a woman’s pregnancy poses immediate risks to her health. But a law passed that year—the Idaho Defence of Life Act—prohibits abortion except in cases of rape or incest, or when “necessary to prevent the death of the pregnant woman”. Moyle v United States concerns cases where a woman’s health is at imminent risk but she is not at death’s door.

Joshua Turner, defending Idaho’s statute, faced a barrage from the three liberal justices. Idaho’s law explicitly recognises abortion as the standard of medical care when a woman’s “life is in peril”, Justice Elana Kagan noted. So can’t EMTALA extend that same standard to cases when her “health is in peril” and she could “lose her reproductive organs”? Well, Mr Turner said, that raises “tough medical questions that implicate deeply theological and moral questions” states should answer. “That would be a good response if federal law did not take a position on what you characterise as a tough question,” Justice Kagan retorted. But EMTALA “says that you don’t have to wait until the person is on the verge of death”.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor cited the case of “a real woman” in Florida who was sent home from hospital despite doctors believing she needed an abortion to avoid sepsis and uncontrolled haemorrhage. Doctors “refused to treat her because they couldn’t say she would die”. She later returned to the hospital, after bleeding at home and passing out, and an abortion saved her life. Would Idaho’s law require a woman to endure a similar experience? Mr Turner could not give a clear answer. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson walked Mr Turner through a discourse on the constitution’s Supremacy Clause, which states that “what the federal government says takes precedence”.

The Court’s conservative justices largely steered clear of questions of women’s reproductive health. But they voiced three lines of attack on the Biden administration’s position, suggesting that their sympathies lay with Idaho.

Justices Samuel Alito, Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas all noted that EMTALA was enacted under the constitution’s Spending Clause and probed whether it was proper for the government to withhold Medicare funds unless emergency abortions are provided. Mr Turner argued that such conditions must be “clear and unambiguous” in the statute itself. Elizabeth Prelogar, the solicitor-general, suggested that the court should not consider this argument as the lower courts “did not address” it. Conservative justices raised the question of conscience exemptions—whether doctors who object to abortion would have to follow a federal mandate. But Ms Prelogar insisted that “individual doctors are never required to perform an abortion”.

One objection to the Biden administration’s position seemed to gain more traction: the worry that adding a health exception via EMTALA would invite a host of elective abortions via mental-health claims. Ms Prelogar strove to allay concerns: it would be “incredibly unethical” to treat a woman who comes to the ER “with some grave mental-health emergency” by terminating her pregnancy, she said.

Mary Ziegler, a law professor at the University of California, Davis, said that, though it “seems like Idaho will prevail”, there is “a lot of ambiguity” about how the justices will justify such a ruling, as all of the pathways explored in the hearing are murky. By contrast, perhaps the starkest moment in the hearing was Justice Kagan’s observation that six women have been airlifted out of state from one Idaho hospital since the law went into effect. “It can’t be the right standard of care”, she said, “to force somebody into a helicopter.”

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Where the Trump administration has science on its side  

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BACK IN JANUARY Donald Trump signed executive order 14187, entitled “Protecting Children from Chemical and Surgical Mutilation”. He instructed federally run insurance programmes to exclude coverage of treatment related to gender transition for minors. The order aimed to stop institutions that receive federal grants from providing such treatments as well. Mr Trump also commissioned the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to publish, within 90 days, a review of literature on best practices regarding “identity-based confusion” among children. The ban on federal funding was later blocked by a judge, but the review was published on May 1st.

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China risks deeper deflation by diverting exports to domestic market

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SHENZHEN, CHINA – APRIL 12: A woman checks her smartphone while walking past a busy intersection in front of a Sam’s Club membership store and a McDonald’s restaurant on April 12, 2025 in Shenzhen, China.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images News

As sky-high tariffs kill U.S. orders for Chinese goods, the country has been striving to help exporters divert sales to the domestic market — a move that threatens to drive the world’s second-largest economy into deeper deflation.

Local Chinese governments and major businesses have voiced support to help tariff-hit exporters redirect their products to the domestic market for sale. JD.com, Tencent and Douyin, TikTok’s sister app in China, are among the e-commerce giants promoting sales of these goods to Chinese consumers.

Sheng Qiuping, vice commerce minister, in a statement last month described China’s vast domestic market as a crucial buffer for exporters in weathering external shocks, urging local authorities to coordinate efforts in stabilizing exports and boosting consumption.

“The side effect is a ferocious price war among Chinese firms,” said Yingke Zhou, senior China economist at Barclays Bank.

JD.com, for instance, has pledged 200 billion yuan ($28 billion) to help exporters and has set up a dedicated section on its platform for goods originally intended for U.S. buyers, with discounts of up to 55%.

An influx of discounted goods intended for the U.S. market would also erode companies’ profitability, which in turn would weigh on employment, Zhou said. Uncertain job prospects and worries over income stability have already been contributing to weak consumer demand.

After hovering just above zero in 2023 and 2024, the consumer price index slipped into negative territory, declining for two straight months in February and March. The producer price index fell for a 29th consecutive month in March, down 2.5% from a year earlier, to clock its steepest decline in four months.

As the trade war knocks down export orders, deflation in China’s wholesale prices will likely deepen to 2.8% in April, from 2.5% in March, according to a team of economists at Morgan Stanley. “We believe the tariff impact will be the most acute this quarter, as many exporters have halted their production and shipments to the U.S.”

For the full year, Shan Hui, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, expects China’s CPI to fall to 0%, from a 0.2% year-on-year growth in 2024, and PPI to decline by 1.6% from a 2.2% drop last year.

China's threshold for pain is a lot higher than ours, says former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Rep.

“Prices will need to fall for domestic and other foreign buyers to help absorb the excess supply left behind by U.S. importers,” Shan said, adding that manufacturing capacity may not adjust quickly to “sudden tariff increases,” likely worsening the overcapacity issues in some industries. 

Goldman projects China’s real gross domestic product to grow just 4.0% this year, even as Chinese authorities have set the growth target for 2025 at “around 5%.”

Survival game

U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up tariffs on imported Chinese goods to 145% this year, the highest level in a century, prompting Beijing to retaliate with additional levies of 125%. Tariffs at such prohibitive levels have severely hit trade between the two countries.

The concerted efforts from Beijing to help exporters offload goods impacted by U.S. tariffs may not be anything more than a stopgap measure, said Shen Meng, director at Beijing-based boutique investment bank Chanson & Co.

The loss of access to the U.S. market has deepened strains on Chinese exporters, piling onto weak domestic demand, intensifying price wars, razor-thin margins, payment delays and high return rates.

“For exporters that were able to charge higher prices from American consumers, selling in China’s domestic market is merely a way to clear unsold inventory and ease short-term cash-flow pressure,” Shen said: “There is little room for profits.”

The squeezed margins may force some exporting companies to close shop, while others might opt to operate at a loss, just to keep factories from sitting idle, Shen said.

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As more firms shut down or scale back operations, the fallout will spill into the labor market. Goldman Sachs’ Shan estimates that 16 million jobs, over 2% of China’s labor force, are involved in the production of U.S.-bound goods.

The Trump administration last week ended the “de minimis” exemptions that had allowed Chinese e-commerce firms like Shein and Temu to ship low-value parcels into the U.S. without paying tariffs.

“The removal of the de minimis rule and declining cashflow are pushing many small and medium-sized enterprises toward insolvency,” said Wang Dan, China director at political risk consultancy firm Eurasia Group, warning that job losses are mounting in export-reliant regions.

She estimates the urban unemployment rate to reach an average 5.7% this year, above the official 5.5% target, Wang said.

Beijing holds stimulus firepower

Surging exports in the past few years have helped China offset the drag from a property slump that has hit investment and consumer spending, strained government finances and the banking sector.

The property-sector ills, coupled with the prohibitive U.S. tariffs, mean “the economy is set to face two major drags simultaneously,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a recent note, warning that the risk is a “worse-than-expected demand shock.”

It is in both the U.S. and China's interest to come to a compromise, says JPMorgan

Despite the mounting calls for more robust stimulus, many economists believe Beijing will likely wait to see concrete signs of economic deterioration before it exercises fiscal firepower.

“Authorities do not view deflation as a crisis, instead, [they are] framing low prices as a buffer to support household savings during a period of economic transition,” Eurasia Group’s Wang said.

When asked about the potential impact of increased competition within China’s market, Peking University professor Justin Yifu Lin said Beijing can use fiscal, monetary and other targeted policies to boost purchasing power.

“The challenge the U.S. faces is larger than China’s,” he told reporters on April 21 in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. Lin is dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics.

He expects the current tariff situation would be resolved soon, but did not share a specific timeframe. While China retains production capabilities, Lin said it would take at least a year or two for the U.S. to reshore manufacturing, meaning American consumers would be hit by higher prices in the interim.

— CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this story.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: Why do people join the Trump administration?

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Checks and Balance newsletter: Why do people join the Trump administration?

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