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Inflation Reduction Act home energy rebates may arrive soon

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Ryanjlane | E+ | Getty Images

Rebates tied to home energy efficiency and created by the Inflation Reduction Act may start flowing to many consumers within months.  

The federal government is issuing $8.8 billion for Home Energy Rebates programs through states, territories and tribes, which must apply for the funding. The U.S. Department of Energy approved the first application for New York on April 18, awarding it an initial $158 million.

The DOE is hopeful New York will open its program to consumers by early summer, according to Karen Zelmar, the agency’s Home Energy Rebates program manager. The state has the fourth-largest total funding allocation, behind California, Texas and Florida.   

The federal rebates — worth up to $14,000 or more per household, depending on a state’s program design — are basically discounts for homeowners and landlords who make certain efficiency upgrades to their property.

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The rebates aim to partially or fully offset costs for efficiency projects like installing electric heat pumps, insulation, electrical panels and Energy Star-rated appliances.

Their value and eligibility vary according to factors like household income, with more money flowing to low- and middle-income earners.

The DOE also expects the programs to save households $1 billion a year in energy costs due to higher efficiency, Zelmar said.

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Eleven other states have also applied for funding: Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington. Many other states are also far along in their application process, Zelmar said.  

“We certainly hope to see all the programs launched … by this time next year, and hopefully much sooner than that for many of the states,” she said.

States must notify the Energy Department they intend to participate by Aug. 16, 2024. Applications are due by Jan. 31, 2025.

These are key details about the rebates

The Inflation Reduction Act earmarked $369 billion in spending for policies to fight climate change, marking the biggest piece of climate legislation in U.S. history. President Biden signed the measure into law in August 2022.

The IRA divided $8.8 billion in total rebate funding between two programs: the Home Efficiency Rebates program and the Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates program.

New York’s application was approved for the the latter program. So far, just four states — Georgia, Oregon, Indiana and New Mexico — have applied for both.

“I hope that at this time next year we have 50 states with rebate programs,” said Kara Saul Rinaldi, CEO and founder of AnnDyl Policy Group, a consulting firm focused on climate and energy policy.

While their goals are the same — largely, to reduce household energy use and greenhouse gas emissions — the two programs’ approach to household energy savings differs, Saul Rinaldi said.

The Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates program

The Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates program pays consumers a maximum amount of money for buying specific technologies and services, Saul Rinaldi said.

Here are some examples from the Energy Department:

  • ENERGY STAR electric heat pump water heater — worth up to $1,750
  • ENERGY STAR electric heat pump for space heating and cooling — up to $8,000
  • ENERGY STAR electric heat pump clothes dryer — up to $840
  • ENERGY STAR electric stove, cooktop, range, or oven — up to $840
  • Electric load service center — up to $4,000
  • Electric wiring — up to $2,500
  • Insulation, air sealing and ventilation — up to $1,600

This program pays up to $14,000 to consumers. It’s only available to low- and moderate-income households, defined as being below 150% of an area’s median income. (These geographical income thresholds are outlined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.)

Low-income earners — those whose income is 80% or less of the area median — qualify for 100% of project costs. Others are limited to half of project costs. (Both are subject to the $14,000 cap.)

Renters can also take advantage of the program, as long as they communicate to their landlord about the purchase of an appliance, Zelmar said.

Home Efficiency Rebates program

In contrast, the Home Efficiency Rebates program is technology neutral, Saul Rinaldi said.

The value of the rebates are tied to how much overall energy a household saves via efficiency upgrades. The deeper the energy cuts, the larger the rebates, Saul Rinaldi said.

For example, the program is worth up to $8,000 for households who cut energy use by at least 35%. It’s worth a maximum $4,000 for those who reduce energy by at least 20%.

The program is available to all households, regardless of income. Low-income earners can qualify for the most money, as with the other rebate program.

With Energy Department approval, states can opt to increase the maximum rebate to more than $8,000 for low earners. In this way, the Home Efficiency Rebates’ value can technically exceed that of the Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates one, Zelmar said.

How consumers can access the rebates

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The Fed is stuck in neutral as it watches how Trump’s policies play out

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., Feb. 11, 2025. 

Craig Hudson | Reuters

The popular narrative among Federal Reserve policymakers these days is that policy is “well-positioned” to adjust to any upside or downside risks ahead. However, it might be more accurate to say that policy is stuck in position.

With an abundance of unknowns swirling through the economy and the halls of Washington, the only gear the central bank really can be in these days is neutral as it begins what could be a long wait for certainty on what’s actually ahead.

“In recent weeks, we’ve heard not only enthusiasm — particularly from banks, about possible shifts in tax and regulatory policies — but also widespread apprehension about future trade and immigration policy,” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in a blog post. “These crosscurrents inject still more complexity into policymaking.”

Bostic’s comments came during an active week for what is known on Wall Street as “Fedspeak,” or the chatter that happens between policy meetings from Chair Jerome Powell, central bank governors and regional presidents.

Officials who have spoken frequently described policy as “well-positioned” — the language is now a staple of post-meeting statements. But increasingly, they are expressing caution about the volatility coming from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and economic agenda, as well as other factors that could influence policy.

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“Uncertainty” is an increasingly common theme. In fact, Bostic titled his Thursday blog post “Uncertainty Calls for Caution, Humility in Policymaking.” A day earlier, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee released minutes from the Jan. 28-29 meeting, with a dozen references to the uncertain climate in the document.

The minutes specifically cited “elevated uncertainty regarding the scope, timing, and potential economic effects of possible changes to trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies.”

Uncertainty factors into the Fed’s decision making in two ways: the impact that it has on the employment picture, which has been relatively stable, and inflation, which has been easing but could rise again as consumers and business leaders get spooked about the impact tariffs could have on prices.

Missing the target

The Fed targets inflation at 2%, a goal that has remained elusive for going on four years.

“Right now, I see the risks of inflation staying above target as skewed to the upside,” St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem told reporters Thursday. “My baseline scenario is one where inflation continues to converge towards 2%, providing monetary policy remains modestly restrictive, and that will take time. I think there is a potential for inflation to remain high and activity to slow. … That’s an alternative scenario, not a baseline scenario, but I’m attentive to it.”

The operative in Musalem’s comment is that policy holds at “modestly restrictive,” which is where he considers the current level of the fed funds rate between 4.25%-4.5%. Bostic was a little less explicit on feeling the need to keep rates on hold, but emphasized that “this is no time for complacency” and noted that “additional threats to price stability may emerge.”

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, thought to be among the least hawkish FOMC members when it comes to inflation, was more measured in his assessment of tariffs and did not offer commentary in separate appearances, including one on CNBC, on where he thinks rates should go.

“If you’re just thinking about tariffs, it depends how many countries are they going to apply to, and how big are they going to be, and the more it looks like a Covid-sized shock, the more nervous you should be,” Goolsbee said.

Many risks ahead

More broadly, though, the January minutes indicated a Fed highly attuned to potential shocks and not interested in testing the waters with any further interest rate moves. The meeting summary pointedly noted that committee members want “further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.”

There’s also more than just tariffs and inflation to worry about.

The minutes characterized the risks to financial stability as “notable,” specifically in the area of leverage and the level of long-duration debt that banks are holding.

Prominent economist Mark Zandi — not normally an alarmist — said in a panel discussion presented by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation that he worries about dangers to the $46.2 trillion U.S. bond market.

“In my view, the biggest risk is that we see a major sell off in the bond market,” said Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The bond market feels incredibly fragile to me. The plumbing is broken. The primary dealers aren’t keeping up with the amount of debt outstanding.”

“There’s just so many things coming together that I think there’s a very significant threat that at some point over the next 12 months, we see a major sell-off in the bond market,” he added.

In this climate, he said, there’s scant chance for the Fed to cut rates — though markets are pricing in the potential for a half percentage point in reductions by the end of the year.

That’s wishful thinking considering tariffs and other intangibles hanging over the Fed’s head, Zandi said.

“I just don’t see the Fed cutting interest rates here until you get a better feel about inflation coming back to target,” he said. “The economy came into 2025 in a pretty good spot. Feels like it’s performing well. Should be able to weather a lot of storms. But it feels like there’s a lot of storms coming.”

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Walmart sell-off bizarre, buy stock despite tariff risks: Bill Simon

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Walmart's stock drop after earnings is bizarre, says former CEO Bill Simon

Walmart stock may be a steal.

Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.

“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.

But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.

“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”

Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.

“The big guys, Walmart, Costco, Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”

Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.

Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.

“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”

It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.

But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.

“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.

Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.

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