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Inflation report Tuesday should give clues on price effect from tariffs

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Groceries are seen at a Walmart supermarket in Houston, Texas, on May 15, 2025.

Ronaldo Schemidt | AFP | Getty Images

June’s inflation report will be looked at not so much for what the headline numbers show than what’s in the underlying data, especially whether tariffs are starting to have an impact.

The consumer price index, due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show an uptick in both headline and core readings, with the latter still well above the Federal Reserve’s target.

But what will really matter is the extent to which President Donald Trump’s tariffs are hitting prices and potentially driving inflation higher.

“June is the first reading [when] these tariffs are really going to start to bite in a very noticeable way,” said Chris Hodge, head U.S. economist at Natixis CIB Americas.

CPI, which measures a broad basket of goods and services across the U.S. economy, is expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase for both headline and core rates, with the latter excluding volatile food and energy costs. On an annual basis, the index is expected to show a 2.7% headline reading and 3% on core.

Increased tariffs going to flow through supply chain and inflation data, says Bleakley's Boockvar

For the Fed, both numbers will still be north of its 2% target, though central bank policymakers use a separate Commerce Department gauge as their primary forecasting tool.

More importantly, though, the CPI will provide a glimpse into how the Trump duties have worked their way into consumer pockets. When Hodge views the report, he will be looking at two key areas.

“I’m looking at autos and I’m looking at apparel, and last month’s reading was very low for both of them, which is very counterintuitive to what you would have” expected, he said. “These are two sectors that are very sensitive to increased tariffs.”

In fact, the May reading was subdued overall and seemed to indicate little upward pressure from the limited tariffs that went into effect in April. Both headline and core CPI rose just 0.1% on a monthly basis. New (-0.3%) and used (-0.5%) vehicle prices fell while apparel was off 0.4% and energy prices declined 1%.

Those numbers are generally expected to turn around, though Goldman Sachs economists notably think used vehicles still may have seen a decline based on trends at recent auto auctions. Goldman is forecasting a below consensus gain of 0.2% in core CPI for June. Fed officials believe core provides a better guide to long-term inflation trends.

Broadly speaking, economists will be looking to core goods trends as the best barometer for tariff impacts. The category includes items such as apparel and footwear, electronics, housing goods and furniture.

Goldman expects increases in auto insurance and air fares, and a general contribution from tariffs of some 0.08 percentage point to the core reading. Tariff-impacted sectors such as furniture, recreation, education, communication and personal care could see price hits, the firm said.

Economists also will keep an eye on shelter prices, which have been a stubborn component keeping readings higher.

“Our forecast reflects a sharp acceleration in most core goods categories but limited impact on core services inflation, at least in the near term,” Goldman said in a note.

The White House also will be watching the report closely — Trump and other administration officials have been pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates, and a higher than expected inflation reading could cause central bankers to dig in their heels further on policy easing.

“The Fed is going to want to make sure that longer run expectations are not becoming unanchored, and I think that the Fed is going to have to see that peak of tariff-induced inflation before they’re going to be comfortable cutting,” said Hodge, the Natixis economist. “We’re at a time right now where breaking down [the inflation report] into individual components is more useful and more necessary than ever.”

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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