Second-quarter earnings misses have resulted in an average 3.8% decline for a stock from two days before the quarterly release through the two days after the report comes out, according to FactSet.
The strong tech-led rally this year has shown some signs of broadening out to small-cap shares and cyclical names as investors rotated out of winning megacap names.
Companies with disappointing quarterly results are getting punished more than usual this earnings season. Second-quarter earnings misses have resulted in an average 3.8% decline for a stock from two days before the quarterly release through the two days after the report comes out, according to FactSet. That is compared to the five-year average price decrease of 2.3% during this same window for companies that disappointed. The ones that beat Wall Street expectations have been rewarded less than average. They are seeing only a 0.3% rise during that same period, per FactSet. That is compared to a five-year average price increase of 1%, FactSet said. This phenomenon underscores the high expectations going into this season as well as a stock market that is viewed by many as overheated. The S & P 500 has gained more than 14% this year and is trading at 21 times forward earnings. “Some stocks that have done well this year have already created a high bar for earnings season, that even if EPS estimates are beat, the stocks have already rallied into them,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, told CNBC. “Valuations … are definitely a challenge for many stocks that have done well this year.” Case in point, shares of Ford Motors plunged more than 18% on Thursday after the automaker came in short of earnings expectations due to warranty costs. Dexcom tumbled 40% on the same day after the diabetes management company reported disappointing revenue and offered weak guidance. DXCM 5D mountain DXCM 5-day chart Those that delivered stellar results did not necessarily see a pop in their stocks. For example, JPMorgan Chase shares dipped 1% on July 12 even after the bank’s profit and revenue topped expectations as investment banking fees surged 52% from a year earlier. “So far this earnings season, the results for many large bellwether companies have been better than the stock reactions,” John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, said in an email. “There is an ongoing backdrop of rotation and a more risk-off mentality in the market, which I believe can cause short-lived drawdowns.” The strong tech-led rally this year has shown some signs of broadening out to small-cap shares and cyclical names as investors rotated out of winning megacap names. Investors will be closely watching this week’s earnings slate , which includes Microsoft , Meta Platforms , Apple and Amazon .
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: American Airlines — Shares slipped less than 1%, recovering from earlier losses, after the airline temporarily grounded all of its flights due to a technical issue. Broadcom — The semi stock added 2%, extending its December rally. Shares have surged more than 46% this month, propelling its 2024 gain above 112%. Big banks — Shares of some big bank stocks rose more than 1% amid news that a group of banks and business groups are suing the Federal Reserve over the annual stress tests, saying it “produces vacillating and unexplained requirements and restrictions on bank capital.” Citigroup , JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs shares gained more than 1% each. Arcadium Lithium — Shares rose more than 4% after the company announced its shareholders have approved the $6.7 billion sale to Rio Tinto . The deal is expected to close in mid-2025. International Seaways — The energy transportation provider surged 8% after an announcement that the company would be added to the S & P SmallCap 600 index, effective Dec. 30. The company will replace Consolidated Communications , which is soon to be acquired. Crypto stocks — Shares of stocks tied to the price of bitcoin rose as the cryptocurrency gave back recent losses amid a climb in tech names broadly. Crypto services provider Coinbase gained almost 3% and bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy gained more than 5%. Miners Riot Platforms and IREN gained 6% and 4%, respectively. U.S. Steel — The steel producer’s stock hovered near the flatline amid news that President Joe Biden will decide on the fate of its proposed acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel after a government panel failed to reach a decision . Apple — Apple shares gained 0.9% to notch a new all-time high. The stock has rallied nearly 34% year to date. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Lisa Han, Tanaya Macheel and Alex Harring contributed reporting.
A general view of the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, United States.
Samuel Corum | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The biggest banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests, according to a person familiar with the matter. A lawsuit is expected this week and could come as soon as Tuesday morning, the person said.
The Fed’s stress test is an annual ritual that forces banks to maintain adequate cushions for bad loans and dictates the size of share repurchases and dividends.
After the market close on Monday, the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it is looking to make changes to the bank stress tests and will be seeking public comment on what it calls “significant changes to improve the transparency of its bank stress tests and to reduce the volatility of resulting capital buffer requirements.”
The Fed said it made the determination to change the tests because of “the evolving legal landscape,” pointing to changes in administrative laws in recent years. It didn’t outline any specific changes to the framework of the annual stress tests.
While the big banks will likely view the changes as a win, it may be too little too late.
Also, the changes may not go far enough to satisfy the banks’ concerns about onerous capital requirements. “These proposed changes are not designed to materially affect overall capital requirements, according to the Fed.
The CEO of BPI (Bank Policy Institute), Greg Baer, which represents big banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, welcomed the Fed announcement, saying in a statement “The Board’s announcement today is a first step towards transparency and accountability.”
However, Baer also hinted at further action: “We are reviewing it closely and considering additional options to ensure timely reforms that are both good law and good policy.”
Groups like the BPI and the American Bankers Association have raised concerns about the stress test process in the past, claiming that it is opaque, and has resulted in higher capital rules that hurt bank lending and economic growth.
In July, the groups accused the Fed of being in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act, because it didn’t seek public comment on its stress scenarios and kept supervisory models secret.