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Is deploying soldiers on New York’s subway as mad as it seems?

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NEW YORKERS have seen it all in the subway. They watch in appreciation as a rat carries a slice of pizza down a staircase. They feel powerless when someone in the throes of a mental-health crisis shouts and staggers on a subway platform. They are uplifted or perhaps annoyed when “Showtime” dancers backflip and hang from car handles and poles. Yet the recent arrival of armed soldiers near subway turnstiles has been unnerving.

Last week Kathy Hochul, New York’s Democratic governor, deployed 750 members of the National Guard as well as 250 state police to assist New York City’s police (NYPD) in searching bags at some subway stations. It is part of a plan aimed at improving subway safety, along with adding more cameras and implementing a pilot scheme to treat those suffering severely from mental illness.

Violent crime in the city has declined so far this year, but crime on the subway is a different story: it rose by 47% in January, year over year. Most of that was down to more thefts. The vast majority of the system’s 4m daily riders travel without incident. However, the abundance of individuals in crisis, coupled with some high-profile attacks, has raised alarms. A conductor’s neck was recently slashed. A woman lost her feet after a man pushed her onto the tracks. A teenager fatally shot a man in a Bronx station. Eric Adams, the city’s mayor, deployed 1,000 cops to the subway, at great expense and with some success.

Ms Hochul decided it wasn’t enough. There is a long history of political point-scoring between New York City mayors and state governors. In this case Ms Hochul may have been motivated partly by labour concerns and cost. After the attack on the conductor some employees staged what looked like a work stoppage that caused delays. The union asked for more transit police. The governor chose soldiers, who are cheaper. The backlash was immediate and came from all sides. “Our transit system is not a ‘war’ zone!” John Chell, NYPD’s chief of patrol, wrote on X. Others are worried about civil-rights violations.

When Henry Smart of John Jay College of Criminal Justice first heard about the National Guard being activated in New York, he wondered, “did something really bad happen?”. The National Guard is a state-based military unit. Members are part of the army’s reserve and can be deployed overseas, as they were regularly during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but these days they are typically activated by state governors in an emergency. During the covid-19 pandemic they assisted with testing. During blizzards they clear snow and rescue people in danger. “We are efficient and task-orientated,” says Mr Smart, a 15-year veteran of the Maryland National Guard. No better crew can fill a sandbag. But this is far from an emergency. And the National Guard is not a camouflaged crime-fighting force. It is not even permitted to make arrests.

Militarising crime fighting is seldom a good idea. “Deploying troops to the subway indicates we’ve lost a battle that we actually are winning,” says Danny Pearlstein, of Riders Alliance, an advocacy group. It tells New Yorkers that we are in a “dire state of affairs”, adds Donna Lieberman, head of the New York Civil Liberties Union when, in fact, the city remains one of the safest of its size in America. Jumaane Williams, the city’s ombudsman, wrote on X that given the political consensus against the deployment, “you would think there would be at least a rethinking.”  So far Ms Hochul is holding firm, though she has at least stopped soldiers carrying long-rifles.

Rather than looking on aghast, some other cities are regarding Ms Hochul’s decision to send in the troops with curiosity. Transit unions in Chicago and Philadelphia are calling on the National Guard to be deployed on their troubled systems. Cherelle Parker, Philadelphia’s new mayor, has promised to beef up police patrols. So far, she and other local lawmakers do not want the National Guard involved. They are right to be wary. The theatrical use of soldiers does not stop crime.

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Economics

Abortion becomes more common in some US states that outlawed it

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ANGEL FOSTER has a vision of a patient. “Imagine you’re a 23-year-old woman in rural Texas”, the doctor and public-health researcher says. This patient is pregnant and wants an abortion. For years, she’s been told that it is illegal in her state, with almost no exceptions. But then, with a bit of Googling, “you find out that there’s this group of people in Massachusetts that will send you FDA-approved medications in the mail.” The ordeal will be over in a few days and will cost $5. “It sounds absolutely bananas, right?” she asks “How could it be legal? How could it be safe?”

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Economics

Will the Supreme Court empower Trump to sack the Fed’s boss?

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OVER 14 seasons of “The Apprentice”, Donald Trump gleefully dispatched more than 200 contestants for botching a task or ruffling the wrong feather. In his second term as president, Mr Trump is discovering that axing federal-agency heads protected by “for-cause” removal statutes may require more than an imperious finger-point. In the latest of a series of emergency applications to the Supreme Court, he is asking the justices to grant him the unfettered power he once wielded on reality TV.

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Economics

Fed Governor Waller sees tariff inflation as ‘transitory’ in ‘Tush Push’ comparison

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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks during The Clearing House Annual Conference in New York City, U.S. November 12, 2024. 

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday he expects the impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on prices to be “transitory,” embracing a term that got the central bank in trouble during the last bout of inflation.

“I can hear the howls already that this must be a mistake given what happened in 2021 and 2022. But just because it didn’t work out once does not mean you should never think that way again,” Waller said in remarks for a policy speech in St. Louis that compared his inflation view to the controversial “Tush Push” football play.

Laying out two scenarios for what the duties eventually will look like, Waller said larger and longer-lasting tariffs would bring a larger inflation spike initially to a 4%-5% range that eventually would ebb as growth slowed and unemployment increased. In the smaller-tariff scenario, inflation would hit around 3% and then fall off.

Either case would still see the Fed cutting interest rates, with timing being the only question, he said. Larger tariffs might force a cut to support growth, while smaller duties might allow a “good news” cut later this year, Waller added.

“Yes, I am saying that I expect that elevated inflation would be temporary, and ‘temporary’ is another word for transitory,'” he said. “Despite the fact that the last surge of inflation beginning in 2021 lasted longer than I and other policymakers initially expected, my best judgment is that higher inflation from tariffs will be temporary.”

The “transitory” term harkens back to the inflation spike in 2021 that Fed officials and many economists expected to ease after supply chain and demand factors related to the Covid pandemic normalized.

However, prices continued to rise, hitting their highest since the early 1980s and necessitating a series of dramatic rate hikes. While inflation has pulled back substantially since the Fed started raising in 2022, it remains above the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed cut its benchmark borrowing rate by a full percentage point in late 2024 but has not cut further this year.

A Trump appointee during the president’s first term, Waller used a football analogy to explain his views on “transitory” inflation. He cited the Philadelphia Eagles’ famed “Tush Push” play that the team has used to great effect on short-yardage and goal line situations.

“You are the Philadelphia Eagles and it is fourth down and a few inches from the goal line. You call for the Tush Push but fail to convert by running the ball,” he said. “Since it didn’t work out the way you expected, does that mean that you shouldn’t call for the Tush Push the next time you face a similar situation? I don’t think so.”

Waller estimated that Trump has either of two goals from the tariffs: to keep the levies high and remake the economy, or use them as negotiating tactics. In the first case, he sees growth slowing “to a crawl” while the unemployment rate rises “significantly.” If the tariffs are negotiated down, he sees the impact on inflation to be “significantly smaller.”

In the other case, he said “one of the biggest shocks to affect the U.S. economy in many decades” is making forecasting and policymaking difficult. Fed officials will need to “remain flexible” in deciding the future path.

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