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‘It’s battered and bruised but still standing’: WTO on global trade

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A cargo ship is loading and unloading foreign trade containers at Qingdao Port in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China on July 28, 2025.

CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty Images

Global trade is not broken, despite the disruption, pressure and shock of trade tariffs introduced by the U.S. this year, the head of the World Trade Organization (WTO) told CNBC Tuesday.

“Many people have the impression that, because of the unilateral actions of the U.S., that global trade is broken. Yes [they’ve] been a great disruption — the greatest disruption of global trade in 80 years — but we are pleased to see the resilience of the system,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.

“The system is battered, it’s bruised, but it’s still standing,” she told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on the sidelines of the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia.

Okonjo-Iweala’s comments come as U.S. President Donald Trump, the architect of multiple U.S. tariffs on foreign imports to the States, continues a tour of Asia in which he has signed trade deals and truces, so far.

But the big prize for Trump will be whether he and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who are due to meet Thursday, can come to a deal to reduce duties and counter-tariffs on a range of each other’s goods. Trump said Monday that Washington and Beijing were poised to “come away with” a trade deal, raising market hopes.

WTO director general: The system is battered and bruised but still standing

“We do wish that the meeting goes very well,” Okonjo-Iweala said, noting that any de-escalation in trade tensions would be welcome.

“Any threat of disconnect and conflict between China and the U.S. in trade is not good for either country or for the world. Any threat of fragmentation or division between the two, into two global trading camps, will lead to losses in global welfare, and the poorer countries will be harder hit,” she said.

WTO forecast 

Earlier in October, the WTO hiked its forecast for global trade growth in 2025, but warned the outlook for 2026 had deteriorated.

Despite predicting that trade volume growth would stand at 2.4% this year, up sharply from a previous estimate of 0.9% in the trade body’s August report, the WTO slashed its previous expectation of 1.8% trade volume growth next year to a lackluster 0.5%.

It cited a cooling global economy and the impact of higher tariffs as a reason for the revision.

Trade tariffs have become a dominant feature, and headwind, for global commerce since U.S. President Donald Trump shocked friends and foes alike with his widescale tariffs regime in April.

Countries scrambled to reach trade deals with the White House but even allies, such as the U.K., have seen a baseline 10% tariff remain on goods exported to the U.S.

Global trade volumes rose sharply in the first half of 2025 — up 4.9% year on year — with several factors contributing to the robust expansion.

These included the front-loading of imports into the U.S. in anticipation of higher trade tariffs, and favorable macroeconomic conditions with disinflation, supportive fiscal policies and tight labor markets boosting real incomes and spending in major economies, the WTO said.

Strong growth in emerging markets and increased demand for artificial intelligence-related goods — including semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment — also fueled global trade growth, it added, with AI-related spending driving nearly half of the overall trade expansion in the first half of the year, rising 20% year on year in value terms.

Global competition when it comes to developing AI-related products has heated up.

The WTO noted that the U.S. accounted for roughly one-fifth of global AI-related trade growth in the first half of 2025. The bulk of the expansion came from Asia, however, which accounted for nearly two-thirds of global AI-related trade growth in the same time period.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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