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January home prices show steady annual gain, but month-to-month comparison tells another tale: Case-Shiller

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Home prices hold steady, but more supply could help buyers. (iStock)

Home prices recorded another gain in January, but a month-to-month comparison showed values losing some ground, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices report.

Home prices are now 6% above their level this time last year, up from 5.6% last month. The 10-city composite increased by 7.4% annually, up from 7% the previous month. At the same time, the 20-city composite posted a rise of 6.6%, up from 6.2% the previous month. 

Month-to-month, home prices struggled because of high mortgage rates and a lack of housing supply. While the 10-city composite registered no growth,  the 20-city composite decreased by 0.1%—the indices measure home prices in major metros across the country.   

“Homeowners most likely saw healthy gains in the last year, no matter what city you were in, or if it was in an expensive or inexpensive neighborhood,” S&P Dow Jones Indices Head of Commodities Brian Luke said. “No matter which way you slice it, the index performance closely resembled the broad market.”

“On a monthly basis, home prices continue to struggle in the face of elevated borrowing costs,” Luke continued. “Seventeen markets dropped over the last month, while Minneapolis has posted a 2.4% decline over the prior three months.”

One way to use your home’s equity is through a cash-out refinance to help you pay down debt or fund home improvement projects. Visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.

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Spring home buying options improve

Spring buying will likely be tamed by still-too-high borrowing costs and limited housing inventory, two factors that have helped prop home prices up. However, improving for-sale options and the promise of an interest rate cut sometime in the summer mean relief is on the way.

At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve said it would continue to monitor inflation and other economic indicators to determine when to lower rates. Market expectations are that the first rate cut will come in the summer, if not later in the year. 

Meanwhile, housing inventory is improving. In February, housing starts climbed 5.9% year-over-year and home completions were 10.7% higher annually, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, signaling potentially more home options in coming months. 

Overall, housing supply has improved, as the number of homes for sale increased by 14.8% compared to last year and grew for the fourth straight month, according to a report by Realtor.com.  

“While elevated mortgage rates continued to freeze housing market activity over the winter, an unthawing is in sight, with improvements in for-sale inventory offering more opportunities for potential buyers across the country,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said. “With spring’s arrival, home prices are likely to show a seasonal uptick, although the annual acceleration in gains will slow compared with the strong 2023 spring. Nevertheless, more inventory is a welcome development and suggests that some normalization in the U.S. housing market lies ahead.”  

Homebuyers can find the best mortgage rate by shopping around and comparing your options. You can visit an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates, choose your loan term and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

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Biden’s initiatives help build supply

A new initiative recently launched by President Joe Biden to improve affordability and supply issues could help increase demand for housing in the current high-rate environment. Biden has called on Congress to invest more than $175 billion in affordable housing initiatives, according to a White House statement

In his State of the Union address earlier this month, Biden called on Congress to create legislation giving a $10,000 tax credit to first-time homebuyers and those who sell their starter homes. This move would help middle-class Americans cope with higher borrowing costs while incentivizing existing homeowners to sell more homes.

“Home price growth will likely not surge going into the Spring home buying season, as home sales are fairly stagnant at this moment,” Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of A&D Mortgage said. “We do believe rates will begin to drop in the second half of the year, and that will help pick up home sales, which will be buoyed by stable home values.” 

If you are looking to take advantage of the current mortgage rates by refinancing your mortgage loan or are ready to shop for the best rate on a new mortgage, consider visiting an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

THIS IS THE #1 CITY FOR FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS, AND OTHER HOT US HOUSING MARKETS

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U.S. ‘industrial renaissance’ is driving a rebound in fundraising

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Jonathan Gray, president and chief operating officer of Blackstone Inc., from left, Ron O’Hanley, chief executive officer of State Street Corp., Ted Pick, chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, Marc Rowan, chief executive officer of Apollo Global Management LLC, and David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., during the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, China, on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. 

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

An “industrial renaissance” in the U.S. is fueling demand for capital, Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management said at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong.

“There is so much demand for capital, [including through debt and equity] … What’s going on is nothing short of extraordinary,” Rowan said on Tuesday during a panel discussion. 

This demand has been supported by massive government spending, particularly on infrastructure, the semiconductor industry and projects under the Inflation Reduction Act, said the asset manager, who is reportedly in the running for Treasury Secretary position under President-elect Donald Trump.

“What we’re watching is this incredible demand for capital happening against a backdrop of a U.S. government that is running significant deficits. And so the capital raising business, I think that’s going to be a good business,” he said. 

Industrial policies, including the CHIPS and Science Act and the 2021 infrastructure legislation, warrant billions in spending.

Rowan added that the U.S. has been the largest recipient of foreign direct investment over the past three years and is expected to stay at the top spot this year as well.

Rowan and other panelists also identified energy and data centers — needed for artificial intelligence and digitization — as growth sectors requiring more capital. 

Blackstone President and COO Jonathan Gray told the panel that data centers were the biggest theme across his entire firm, with the company employing billions on their development.

“We’re doing it in equity, we’re doing it financing … this is a space we like a lot, and we will continue to be all in as it relates to digital infrastructure.”

Fundraising and M&A recovery

Other panelists at the summit organized by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said that capital raising was well-positioned to recover from a recent slowdown. 

According to David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, capital raising activity had reached peak levels in 2020 and 2021 amid massive Covid-era stimulus but later became muted amid the war in Ukraine, inflation pressures and tighter regulation from the Federal Trade Commission. 

There has been a recent pick up in activity as conditions have normalized, along with expectations of friendlier regulation on dealmaking from the FTC under the incoming Donald Trump administration, Solomon said. 

While there remains an inflationary backdrop and other risks in the current environment, Ted Pick, CEO of Morgan Stanley said that the consumer and corporate community are “by in large, in good shape” as the economy continues to grow. 

“This environment has been one where, if you are in the business of allocating capital, it’s been great,” he said, adding that the group was now gearing up to get into “raising capital mode.” 

“That is [the] hallmark of a growing and thriving economy, which is where the classic underwriting and mergers and acquisitions businesses take hold,” he said. 

Solomon predicted that these trends would see “more robust” capital raising and M&A activity in 2025.

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Visa & Mastercard execs grilled by senators on high swipe fees

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The Senate Judiciary Committee convened on Tuesday for a hearing on the alleged VisaMastercard “duopoly,” which committee members from both sides of the aisle say has left retailers and other small businesses with no ability to negotiate interchange fees on credit card transactions.

“This is an odd grouping. The most conservative and the most liberal members happen to agree that we have to do something about this situation,” committee chair and Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin said.

Interchange fees, also known as swipe fees, are paid from a merchant’s bank account to the cardholder’s bank, whenever a customer uses a credit card in a retail purchase. Visa and Mastercard have a combined market cap of more than $1 trillion, and control 80% of the market.

“In 2023 alone, Visa and Mastercard charged merchants more than $100 billion in credit card fees, mostly in the form of interchange fees,” Durbin told the committee.

Durbin, along with Republican Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, have co-sponsored the bipartisan Credit Card Competition Act, which takes aim at Visa and Mastercard’s market dominance by requiring banks with more than $100 billion in assets to offer at least one other payment network on their cards, besides Visa and Mastercard.

“This way, small businesses would finally have a real choice: they can route credit card transactions on the Visa or Mastercard network and continue to pay interchange fees that often rank as their second or biggest expense, or they could select a lower cost alternative,” Durbin told the committee.

Visa and Mastercard, however, stand by their swipe fees.

“We consider them incentives, some people might consider them penalties. But if you can adopt new technology that reduces the risk and takes fraud out of the system and improves streamlined processing, then you would qualify for lower interchange rates,” said Bill Sheedy, senior advisor to Visa CEO Ryan McInerney. “It’s very expensive to issue a product and to provide payment guarantee and online customer service, zero liability. All of those things, and many more, senator, get factored into interchange [fees].”

The executives also warned against the Credit Card Competition Act, with Sheedy claiming that it “would remove consumer control over their own payment decisions, reduce competition, impose technology sharing mandates and pick winners and losers by favoring certain competitors over others.”

“Why do we know this? Because we’ve seen it before,” Mastercard President of Americas Linda Kirkpatrick said, in reference to the Durbin amendment to the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, which required the Fed to limit fees on retailers for transactions using debit cards. “Since debit regulation took hold, debit rewards were eliminated, fees went up, access to capital diminished, and competition was stifled.”

But the current high credit card swipe fees for retailers translate to higher prices for consumers, the National Retail Federation told the committee in a letter ahead of the hearing. The Credit Card Competition Act, the retail industry’s largest trade association wrote, will deliver “fairness and transparency to the payment system and relief to American business and consumers.”

“When we think of consumer spending, credit card swipe fees are not the first thing that comes to mind, yet those fees are a surprisingly large part of consumer spending,” Notre Dame University law professor Roger Alford said. “Last year, the average American spent $1,100 in swipe fees, more than they spent on pets, coffee or alcohol.”

Visa and Mastercard agreed to a $30 billion settlement in March meant to reduce their swipe fees by four basis points for three years, but a federal judge rejected the settlement in June, saying they could afford to pay more.

Visa is also battling a Justice Department lawsuit filed in September. The payment network is accused of maintaining an illegal monopoly over debit card payment networks, which has affected “the price of nearly everything,” according to Attorney General Merrick Garland.

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