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January home prices show steady annual gain, but month-to-month comparison tells another tale: Case-Shiller

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Home prices hold steady, but more supply could help buyers. (iStock)

Home prices recorded another gain in January, but a month-to-month comparison showed values losing some ground, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices report.

Home prices are now 6% above their level this time last year, up from 5.6% last month. The 10-city composite increased by 7.4% annually, up from 7% the previous month. At the same time, the 20-city composite posted a rise of 6.6%, up from 6.2% the previous month. 

Month-to-month, home prices struggled because of high mortgage rates and a lack of housing supply. While the 10-city composite registered no growth,  the 20-city composite decreased by 0.1%—the indices measure home prices in major metros across the country.   

“Homeowners most likely saw healthy gains in the last year, no matter what city you were in, or if it was in an expensive or inexpensive neighborhood,” S&P Dow Jones Indices Head of Commodities Brian Luke said. “No matter which way you slice it, the index performance closely resembled the broad market.”

“On a monthly basis, home prices continue to struggle in the face of elevated borrowing costs,” Luke continued. “Seventeen markets dropped over the last month, while Minneapolis has posted a 2.4% decline over the prior three months.”

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SOCIAL SECURITY: COLA INCREASING BUT MEDICARE COSTS RISING TOO IN 2024

Spring home buying options improve

Spring buying will likely be tamed by still-too-high borrowing costs and limited housing inventory, two factors that have helped prop home prices up. However, improving for-sale options and the promise of an interest rate cut sometime in the summer mean relief is on the way.

At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve said it would continue to monitor inflation and other economic indicators to determine when to lower rates. Market expectations are that the first rate cut will come in the summer, if not later in the year. 

Meanwhile, housing inventory is improving. In February, housing starts climbed 5.9% year-over-year and home completions were 10.7% higher annually, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, signaling potentially more home options in coming months. 

Overall, housing supply has improved, as the number of homes for sale increased by 14.8% compared to last year and grew for the fourth straight month, according to a report by Realtor.com.  

“While elevated mortgage rates continued to freeze housing market activity over the winter, an unthawing is in sight, with improvements in for-sale inventory offering more opportunities for potential buyers across the country,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said. “With spring’s arrival, home prices are likely to show a seasonal uptick, although the annual acceleration in gains will slow compared with the strong 2023 spring. Nevertheless, more inventory is a welcome development and suggests that some normalization in the U.S. housing market lies ahead.”  

Homebuyers can find the best mortgage rate by shopping around and comparing your options. You can visit an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates, choose your loan term and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

MILLENNIALS ARE DESPERATE TO BUY A HOME, MOST WILLING TO PAY A MORTGAGE RATE ABOVE 7%: SURVEY

Biden’s initiatives help build supply

A new initiative recently launched by President Joe Biden to improve affordability and supply issues could help increase demand for housing in the current high-rate environment. Biden has called on Congress to invest more than $175 billion in affordable housing initiatives, according to a White House statement

In his State of the Union address earlier this month, Biden called on Congress to create legislation giving a $10,000 tax credit to first-time homebuyers and those who sell their starter homes. This move would help middle-class Americans cope with higher borrowing costs while incentivizing existing homeowners to sell more homes.

“Home price growth will likely not surge going into the Spring home buying season, as home sales are fairly stagnant at this moment,” Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of A&D Mortgage said. “We do believe rates will begin to drop in the second half of the year, and that will help pick up home sales, which will be buoyed by stable home values.” 

If you are looking to take advantage of the current mortgage rates by refinancing your mortgage loan or are ready to shop for the best rate on a new mortgage, consider visiting an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

THIS IS THE #1 CITY FOR FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS, AND OTHER HOT US HOUSING MARKETS

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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