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KKR says China’s real estate correction may only be halfway done

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High-rise buildings are illuminated at night in the West Coast New Area of Qingdao, East China’s Shandong province, on March 22, 2024. 

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s real estate troubles are likely far from over and industry problems need to be addressed quickly if overall GDP growth is to pick up significantly, according to a report released Thursday by global investment firm KKR.

That’s one of the two key takeaways from a recent trip to China by the firm’s head of global and macro asset allocation, Henry H. McVey. It was his fourth visit in just over a year.

“A fundamentally overbuilt real estate industry needs to be addressed — and quickly,” he said in the report, which counts Changchun Hua, KKR’s chief economist for Greater China, among the co-authors.

“Second, confidence must be restored to drive savings back down,” McVey said, noting that would spur consumers and businesses to spend on upgrading to higher quality products, as Chinese authorities have promoted.

Real estate and related sectors once accounted for about one fifth or more of China’s economy, depending on the breadth of analysts’ calculations. The property industry has slumped in the last few years after Beijing’s crackdown on developers’ high reliance on debt for growth.

Based on comparisons to housing corrections in the U.S., Japan and Spain, China’s “housing market correction may be just halfway complete” in terms of its depth, the KKR report said.

“Both price and volume must come under pressure to finish the cleansing cycle,” the report said. “To date, though, it has largely been a contraction in volume.”

China's property market is unlikely to recover this year, Jefferies says

While KKR’s report didn’t provide much detail on expectations for specific real estate policy, the authors said more action by Beijing to improve China’s real estate sector “could materially shift investor perception.”

Amid geopolitical tensions, the country’s property market slump and drop in stocks have given many foreign institutional investors pause about China investing.

“According to some of our proprietary survey work, many allocators have considered reducing China exposure to 5-6%, down from 10-12% today at a time that we think fundamentals in the economy are likely bottoming,” the KKR report said.

Much of official Chinese data to start the year beat analysts’ expectations.

Chinese officials have said the real estate sector remains in a period of adjustment, while Beijing shifts its emphasis toward manufacturing and what it considers “high-quality development.”

Authorities have also released policies to promote financial support for select property developers, while many local governments — though not necessarily the largest cities — have significantly relaxed home purchase restrictions.

Real estate’s drag to moderate

KKR expects a modest slowdown in China’s GDP growth to 4.7% this year, and 4.5% next year, with real estate and Covid-related factors halving their drag on the economy from 1.4 percentage points in 2024 to a 0.7 percentage point drag in 2025.

“Our bottom line is that: with the ongoing [property] correction as well as some potential further policy support, we think the drag to [the] overall economy should moderate a bit over the next few years,” McVey said in a separate statement. He is also chief investment officer of KKR Balance Sheet.

Catering, accommodation and wholesale are set to modestly increase their contribution to growth in the next two years, while digitalization and the shift toward more carbon-neutral, green industry are expected to remain the largest drivers of growth, according to the report.

For investors, the report said a more important development than China’s GDP increase would be whether authorities could make it easier for businesses and households to tap capital markets.

“Repairing soft spots in [the] economy, especially around housing, will ultimately improve the cost of capital, and will also allow new consumer companies to access the capital markets likely at better prices if real estate and confidence are doing better,” McVey said in the statement.

Beijing in March announced a GDP target of around 5% for this year. Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong said last month that developers should go bankrupt if necessary and that authorities would promote the development of affordable housing.

Recent data have pointed to some stabilization in the property sector slowdown. The seven-day-moving average of new home sales in 21 major cities fell by 34.5% year-on-year as of Monday, better than the 45.3% drop recorded a week earlier, according to Nomura, citing Wind Information.

Compared with the same period in 2019, that sales average was only down by 27.8% as of Monday, versus a 47% drop a week earlier, Nomura said, noting most of the improvement was in China’s biggest cities.

Consumer outlook

KKR said most of its local portfolio is in consumer and services companies, whose business reflect how Chinese people in the middle to higher income range are spending modestly to upgrade their lifestyles.

“Top line growth is solid, margins are holding, and consumers are spending on less conspicuous items such as ‘smart homes,’ pets, and recreational activities,” the report said. “Domestic travel is also strong.”

Retail sales rose by a better-than-expected 5.5% year-on-year in January and February, boosted by significant growth in Lunar New Year holiday spending.

Longer term, KKR still expects that China can follow historical precedent in changing policy to be “more investor friendly.”

“While our message is not an all-clear signal to lean in,” the report said, “it is a reminder – using history as our guide – that, if China does adjust its domestic policies to be more investor friendly (especially as it relates to supply side reforms), this market could rebound significantly from current levels.”

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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Private Credit Expansion: How Alternative Lending Platforms Are Reshaping Corporate Liquidity

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How Alternative Lending Platforms Are Reshaping Corporate Liquidity

Private credit has firmly established itself as a foundational pillar of global financial markets in 2026, transitioning from an alternative asset class into a dominant mechanism for middle-market corporate financing. Reports published in mid-July 2026 show that direct lending assets under management have expanded significantly, as corporate borrowers increasingly bypass traditional syndication desks in favor of customized private debt solutions. This structural migration has fundamentally altered corporate liquidity dynamics, providing middle-market enterprises with reliable access to tailored capital packages even during periods of regulatory bank tightening.

The primary driver of this continued growth is the structural flexibility inherent in private debt agreements. Unlike public bond markets or conservative commercial bank loans—which often carry rigid covenants and slow underwriting timelines—private credit funds offer speed of execution, flexible payment-in-kind structures, and customized debt-service frameworks. For companies undertaking strategic acquisitions, capital expenditures, or complex balance sheet recapitalizations, the ability to negotiate directly with a unified syndicate of private lenders provides significant certainty and confidentiality.

However, the expansion of private credit is attracting heightened regulatory attention and risk scrutiny. Financial regulatory bodies are closely evaluating the lack of secondary market price discovery and the potential concentration of illiquidity risks within non-bank financial institutions. Because private debt instruments are held to maturity and marked to model rather than marked to market, evaluating real-time enterprise valuations during economic shifts requires robust internal credit assessment standards. Analysts note that as loan portfolios mature, performance variations between disciplined lenders and aggressive underwriters will become increasingly apparent.

For corporate financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, private credit represents both a powerful strategic tool and a vital diversification strategy. Borrowers must weigh the higher nominal coupon rates of private debt against the tangible value of operational flexibility and execution certainty. Meanwhile, investors must maintain rigorous credit due diligence, prioritizing funds with proven restructuring capabilities and deep operational expertise in underwriting resilient middle-market businesses.

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Tokenized Real-World Assets: Institutional Ledger Adoption Achieves Scale in July 2026

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Institutional Ledger Adoption Achieves Scale in July 2026

The integration of blockchain technology with legacy financial markets has reached a decisive tipping point in July 2026, driven by the rapid scaling of Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization. Major global investment banks, custodial entities, and asset managers are actively shifting sovereign debt, commercial paper, and private fund shares onto permissioned distributed ledgers. Recent industry data confirms that the aggregate market capitalization of tokenized treasury products and private credit funds has surged past major milestones, illustrating that ledger-based settlement is no longer experimental, but core financial infrastructure.

The fundamental value proposition of asset tokenization rests on operational efficiency, continuous liquidity, and automated compliance execution. By embedding regulatory checks, investor accreditation limits, and automated coupon distributions directly into smart contract code, financial institutions eliminate vast amounts of manual back-office reconciliation. Furthermore, fractionalized ownership structures allow high-value asset classes—such as prime commercial real estate and private equity funds—to be split into accessible units, significantly expanding liquidity pools and enabling real-time collateral optimization.

A key catalyst behind this institutional momentum is the establishment of comprehensive regulatory clarity across major financial jurisdictions. The implementation of standardized digital asset frameworks in the United States and Europe has provided institutional compliance officers with the legal certainty required to deploy capital on-chain. As a result, premier custodian banks are now offering unified digital asset custody, seamlessly bridging traditional securities depositories with programmable ledger ecosystems.

Looking forward, the maturation of tokenized assets will continue to transform secondary market trading and treasury management. Corporate treasurers can now yield-optimize idle cash in real time by moving into tokenized money market instruments that settle instantaneously on a 24/7 basis. To remain competitive, financial leaders must ensure their institutional architectures are interoperable with modern digital ledger protocols, positioning their organizations at the forefront of modern capital market efficiency.

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