Several major gauges of fear in the market are reflecting increased alarm from investors. The Cboe Volatility Index , a measure of anticipated market instability that’s known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” topped 19 on Monday and closed at its highest level since October. It neared the key level of 20 in late fall of 2023 and at other times during the pandemic when traders were wary of an equity correction. @VX.1 1Y mountain The VIX over the past year At the same time, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index has tipped into “fear” territory this week. The market mood tracker sat in the “neutral” zone one week prior, but was comfortably in the “greed” range both a month and year prior. The index, which compiles seven different measures including put-and-call options and junk bond demand, has five labels ranging from “extreme greed” to “extreme fear.” When it tips below an average score of 50 like it has in recent days, it can be taken as a sign of investors growing nervous. And the so-called Panic Index from Goldman Sachs’ trading desk has climbed to levels not seen since early 2023. Before that, it last touched this point during 2022’s market sell-off. Taken together, these data points underscore mounting skittishness among market participants. This comes amid a breather following the market’s rally, while concerns rise around the potential for interest rates to remain higher for longer and for escalation in the conflict gripping the Middle East. The market has been thrown “this fear fly into the ointment,” said Alex McGrath, chief investment officer at NorthEnd Private Wealth, citing the situation in the Middle East on top of stretched market valuations and the path of interest rates. “You’ve got so much in the air right now.” Monetary policy has been top of mind for more than a year as investors have wondered when, or if, the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates following a historic tightening campaign. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in the first rate cut coming in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool . That’s much later than market participants anticipated heading into the year. Those hoping for rate decreases sooner rather than later were dealt a tough blow when closely followed economic data was released last week. On an annualized basis, price indexes tied to both consumers and wholesalers showed inflation remained above the Fed’s preferred 2% clip, raising concerns that the cost of borrowing could stay elevated for longer than previously expected. That has contributed to a recent market drop, as the major indexes have pulled back in April from record highs notched earlier this year. Month to date, the S & P 500 is tracking for a decline of more than 3%, while the Nasdaq Composite is off by nearly 3%. The Dow is poised to slide almost 5% during the period. .DJI .SPX,.IXIC YTD mountain The three major indexes in 2024 This latest decline has placed the Dow just shy of its 2024 flatline, a stunning reversal after trading near the key 40,000 level just weeks prior. Treasury yields have also taken a leg up, with the rate on the 10-year note topping 4.6%. Rising oil prices have also weighed on the stock market, as commodity traders bought in on expectations of escalating conflict in the Middle East. Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday, though the attack was largely thwarted by the latter’s defense system. Now, traders are watching for Israel’s response. The current market downturn shouldn’t yet be taken as anything other than a typical — and healthy — correction, said Jason Heller, Coastal Wealth executive vice president. But he said the key threat to this outlook is if the conflict in the Middle East further spirals. “Very rarely do you get an escalator ride upward in the market — it tends to be an elevator ride,” Heller said. But, “I always write in pencil when I’m giving you prognostications, because things can change.” “This is just the natural ebb and flow, I think, of market pricing,” he added. “But, the caveat is, if things really go sideways in the Middle East, that could change the calculus.”
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell. Novo Nordisk – Shares plunged more than 19% after the Danish pharmaceutical giant reported disappointing late-stage trial results for its experimental weight loss drug, CagriSema. Rival obesity drug maker Eli Lilly rose more than 6% following the results. FedEx – Shares jumped 8.5% after FedEx announced a spinoff of its freight business . Elsewhere, the company said earnings per share for the fiscal second quarter came in at $4.05, excluding items, while analysts polled by LSEG anticipated just $3.90. On the other hand, the company saw $21.97 billion in revenue for the quarter, under the consensus forecast of $22.10 billion. Nike – The athletic apparel retailer’s stock sank more than 7%. Nike topped Wall Street’s already low expectations but showed a decline in revenue and earnings year over year. The company’s CEO also said that Nike’s turnaround plan could take longer than anticipated. Mission Produce – The stock advanced more than 10% following the avocado producer’s better-than-expected results for the fiscal fourth quarter. U.S. Steel – The steel producer shed 6% after issuing weak fourth-quarter guidance. For its current quarter, U.S. Steel expects a loss between 25 cents to 29 cents per share. On the other hand, analysts polled by FactSet had expected a per-share profit of 22 cents. Tesla – Shares fell nearly 5%, extending the almost 1% loss seen in the previous session. The stock is coming under pressuring during the overall market sell-off as investors take profits on some of the big election winners. Occidental Petroleum – The stock gained around 2% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it purchased shares of the energy company . Meanwhile, shares of Sirius XM and VeriSign – two other names that Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had purchased shares of – were up more than 1% and down 0.2%, respectively. Micron Technology – The chipmaker fell 2.9%, extending its slide one day after Micron posted its worst day since March 2020. The move comes after Micron posted disappointing second-quarter guidance . Trump Media – The stock lost more than 5% on the heels of President-elect Donald Trump transferring his entire stake of the company’s shares to a revocable trust . The stock’s fall also comes after a House Republican spending deal backed by the former president to avert a government shutdown failed Thursday night . Starbucks – The coffee giant slipped about 1%. Baristas in Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle are set to strike Friday morning , demanding better wages and schedules. The Workers Union, which represents baristas at 525 Starbucks stores, said walkouts could escalate nationwide by Christmas Eve. Crypto-linked stocks – Shares of MicroStrategy and Coinbase each declined about 5.5%, continuing their slump as bitcoin prices fall from their highs . Robinhood shares shed 6%. The cryptocurrency has had an aggressive sell-off since the Federal Reserve on Wednesday cautioned fewer rate cuts next year, which hit equity and crypto markets. — CNBC’s Alex Harring, Samantha Subin, Sarah Min, Pia Singh, Lisa Kailai Han and Michelle Fox Theobald contributed reporting.
Warren Buffett poses with Martin, the Geico gecko, ahead of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder’s Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 3rd, 2024.
David A. Grogan | CNBC
Warren Buffett went on bit of a shopping spree in the stock market before Christmas, picking up shares of Occidental Petroleum among others during a swift December sell-off.
Berkshire Hathaway purchased additional 8.9 million shares in the Houston-based energy producer for $405 million through transactions Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, pushing its stake above 28%, according to a regulatory filing late Thursday night.
During the same time frame, the Omaha-based conglomerate also bought about 5 million shares of Sirius XM for around $113 million as well as about 234,000 shares of VeriSign for roughly $45 million. These two stakes are much smaller in size, so these transactions could be made by Buffett’s investing lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler.
All told, Berkshire bought over $560 million worth of stocks over the last three sessions.
The 92-year-old legendary investor appeared to have taken advantage of a broad market pullback that made these stocks much cheaper.
Occidental shares have dropped more than 10% this month, bringing its 2024 losses to 24%. The energy company, once known for being founded by legendary oilman Armand Hammer, is Berkshire’s sixth-biggest equity holding. Buffett has ruled out a full takeover.
Occidental Petroleum
The sell-off in Sirius XM has been more dramatic. The New York-based satellite radio company is currently in its six-day losing streak, falling 23% this month and 62% this year.
Berkshire started hiking this bet after billionaire John Malone’s Liberty Media completed its deal in early September to combine its tracking stocks with the rest of the audio entertainment company. Now, Berkshire’s stake has risen to about 35%. SiriusXM has been grappling with subscriber losses and unfavorable demographic shifts.
Internet name VeriSign has also had a rough year with its stock down 6% in 2024, significantly underperforming the tech sector. Berkshire first bought the tech stock in 2013 and hasn’t adjusted the stake in years.
Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading. FedEx – Shares rose 8% following the delivery giant’s better-than-expected earnings. For its fiscal second quarter, FedEx reported adjusted earnings of $4.05 per share, above the $3.90 per share that analysts surveyed by LSEG were expecting. Revenue, however, came in weaker-than-expected. The company also announced that it’s planning on spinning off its freight business . Nike – The retailer’s stock popped around 6% after its fiscal second quarter results topped Wall Street estimates . Nike earned 78 cents per share on $12.35 billion in revenue. Analysts were expecting 63 cents per share on revenue of $12.13 billion, according to LSEG. Mission Produce – Shares gained 9% on the heels of the company’s fiscal fourth quarter results beating analysts’ expectations. Mission Produce posted adjusted earnings of 28 cents per share on revenue of $354.4 million. That’s an improvement from the 11 cents per share in adjusted earnings the company posted in the year-ago period. Revenue also rose 37% from a year earlier. U.S. Steel – Shares fell more than 4% after the steel producer issued weak guidance for its fourth quarter. U.S. Steel expects a loss between 25 cents and 29 cents per share for the period, while analysts were looking for a projected profit of 22 cents per share, per FactSet.