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Michelle Obama spotlights reproductive rights and women’s role in America

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This is the introduction to Checks and Balance, a weekly, subscriber-only newsletter bringing exclusive insight from our correspondents in America.

James Bennet, our Lexington columnist, considers Michelle Obama’s contributions to the last few days of the Democratic campaign

As you might expect, I’ve listened to many campaign speeches this year. To me, the most interesting of the lot was the one Michelle Obama delivered on Saturday in Kalamazoo, Michigan, where she introduced Kamala Harris before about 5,000 people packed into a small arena. Besides her speech at the Democratic convention, it was her only appearance on the campaign trail. She made the case against Donald Trump with glacial contempt. But the heart of the speech was an account of the importance of reproductive rights that framed the matter in terms of women’s health more broadly and even of their place in the family and the nation’s politics.

Mrs Obama said that, rather than learning to talk about their reproductive health, women and girls had been “taught instead to feel shame and to hide how our bodies work”. As the crowd fell silent, rapt, she went on, in concrete and even graphic terms I’ve never heard a politician use, to speak first about the experience of girls in puberty. And then “at the other end of the reproductive timeline”, she continued, “too many women my age have no idea what’s going on with our bodies as we battle through menopause and debilitating hot flashes and depression.” Would you have expected that to be an applause line? The crowd went wild, cheering and clapping: I suspect this is what people must mean when they talk about “feeling seen”.

Mrs Obama may have been relating to the other women in the room, and those who might watch a video later, but she was also trying to reach men. “See, fellows,” she went on, “most of us women, we suck up our pain and we deal with it alone.” Mr Trump has been holding himself out on the campaign trail as the protector of women, “whether the women like it or not”, as he put it in Wisconsin on Thursday. Mrs Obama was urging women to protect themselves, but also calling on men to stick up for them, in their own interest, too. She conjured an image of “your wife shivering and bleeding on the operating room table” after a botched delivery and warned, “You will be the one pleading for somebody, anybody, to do something.”

The contrast could not have been more stark with Mr Trump’s event at Madison Square Garden the following evening. Like all his events it had a masculine vibe, in part because most of the many speakers were men; in part because one of those men was a professional wrestler, another runs an ultimate fighting league and a third was Elon Musk; and in part because the humour was directed at people who would find it funny to hear Ms Harris’s aides called “pimp handlers”. There were plenty of women in the audience who were laughing, too.

Pollsters may once again have underestimated Mr Trump’s support, and he may have this election in the bag. On the other hand, this is the first campaign he has run since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v Wade, as he wanted it to, and no one can be certain how motivating that issue will prove. Regardless of who wins, the political movement to restore reproductive rights, as I mention in Lexington this week, is changing the country and its politics in profound ways, and I think the combination with Ms Harris’s candidacy probably marks a permanent shift in expectations about women’s rightful roles in public life. Mr Trump has made so much that was once abnormal in politics seem normal. In this, more hopeful way, Ms Harris has, too.

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Donald Trump sacks America’s top military brass

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THE FIRST shot against America’s senior military leaders was fired within hours of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th: General Mark Milley’s portrait was removed from the wall on the E-ring, where it had hung with paintings of other former chairmen of the joint chiefs of staff. A day later the commandant of the coast guard, Admiral Linda Fagan, was thrown overboard. On February 21st it was the most senior serving officer, General Charles “CQ” Brown, a former F-16 pilot, who was ejected from the Pentagon. At least he was spared a Trumpian farewell insult. “He is a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader,” Mr Trump declared.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Economics

Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

Germany is 'lacking ambition,' investor says

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