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Middle-income Americans feel more optimism about finances and economy’s direction: survey

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Middle-income Americans could be earning more on savings, according to a recent Santander survey. (iStock)

Although inflation is still a top concern, middle-income Americans said they’ve gotten used to higher prices and feel better equipped to handle their finances, according to a recent Santander survey

Additionally, worries about an economic recession have taken a backseat for many Americans as they begin to accept the high-interest rate environment as the new normal. The number of respondents who expected a recession in the next 12 months dropped from 69% to 60%.

Consumer confidence hit a record high of 79.4 in March, the highest since July 2021, according to the University of Michigan’s benchmark Consumer Sentiment Index. The number reflects the improved consumer outlook that inflation will continue to soften and that personal finances will also be lifted as the effects of high prices and expenses on living standards ease.  

However, consumers have had to make deep budget cuts to survive in a high-cost environment—67% of respondents said they cut out major purchases such as vacations, vehicles and home repairs, according to the survey.

“While middle-income households have had to navigate higher prices due to inflation, it is encouraging to see consumers taking positive steps to manage their finances and adjust their household budgets,” Tim Wennes, CEO of Santander U.S., said.  

If you are struggling with high inflation, you could consider taking out a personal loan to pay down debt at a lower interest rate, reducing your monthly payments. Visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.

BIDEN WANTS TO GIVE HOMEBUYERS $400 PER MONTH: STATE OF THE UNION

Americans can earn more on savings

Despite 74% of respondents saying they believe they are on the right path to financial prosperity, 60% are missing out on an opportunity to grow savings in a high-rate environment, with 56% still earning less than 3% interest, according to the survey.

“At the same time, many continue to miss out on the opportunity to leverage the current rate environment to grow their savings,” Wennes said. “For most consumers, this is the first time in a generation when they can be earning meaningful interest on their hard-earned savings.”

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, pushing the federal funds rate to a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% to lower soaring inflation. 

Middle Americans could offset high costs by moving money into higher-yielding accounts like certificates of deposit (CD) and high-yield savings accounts. With CDs, cash is deposited for a fixed period, ranging from a few months to several years. In exchange, those funds earn a higher interest rate when compared to regular savings accounts. A high-yield savings account, also known as a high-interest account, offers higher interest rates on deposits than a traditional one. The interest rate is an annual percentage yield (APY) that fluctuates. However, these accounts allow you to make deposits and withdrawals.  

If high-interest debt is putting a dent in your finances, you could consider paying it down with a personal loan at a lower interest rate. Visit Credible to get your personalized rate in minutes. 

HOMEBUYERS GAINED THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS AS MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES FALL: REDFIN

Housing is still out of reach for many

The combination of high borrowing rates and home prices has put the dream of homeownership on ice for many would-be homebuyers.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has not dropped below 6.6% this year. Home prices recorded another gain in January and are now 6% above their level this time last year, up from 5.6% rise last month, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices report.

Higher mortgage rates and home prices mean that 20% of Americans spend roughly 30% of their paychecks on monthly home loan payments and 10% spend more than half of their pay on their mortgage, according to a recent NewHomesMates.com survey

“When you’re saving up for a house, it can be hard to justify spending money on other things,” a NewHomesMate spokesperson said in a statement. “But the unprecedented high costs of today’s real estate are forcing potential buyers to make some extreme decisions. Not only are they slashing leisure spending and travel, but many are also cutting back on basic items like groceries.”

Homebuyers can find the best mortgage rates by shopping around and comparing options. You can visit an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates, choose your loan term and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

HIGH HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE RATES SCARING AWAY FLORIDA HOMEBUYERS, OTHER STATES FACE THE SAME ISSUE

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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This is why Jamie Dimon is so gloomy on the economy

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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms, in the Hart Building on Dec. 6, 2023.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

The more Jamie Dimon worries, the better his bank seems to do.

As JPMorgan Chase has grown larger, more profitable and increasingly more crucial to the U.S. economy in recent years, its star CEO has grown more vocal about what could go wrong — all while things keep going right for his bank.

In the best of times and in the worst of times, Dimon’s public outlook is grim.

Whether it’s his 2022 forecast for a “hurricane” hitting the U.S. economy, his concerns over the fraying post-WWII world order or his caution about America getting hit by a one-two punch of recession and inflation, Dimon seems to lace every earnings report, TV appearance and investor event with another dire warning.

“His track record of leading the bank is incredible,” said Ben Mackovak, a board member of four banks and investor through his firm Strategic Value Bank Partner. “His track record of making economic-calamity predictions, not as good.”

Over his two decades running JPMorgan, Dimon, 69, has helped build a financial institution unlike any the world has seen.

A sprawling giant in both Main Street banking and Wall Street high finance, Dimon’s bank is, in his own words, an end-game winner when it comes to money. It has more branches, deposits and online users than any peer and is a leading credit card and small business franchise. It has a top market share in both trading and investment banking, and more than $10 trillion moves over its global payment rails daily.

‘Warning shot’

A review of 20 years of Dimon’s annual investor letters and his public statements show a distinct evolution. He became CEO in 2006, and his first decade at the helm of JPMorgan was consumed by the U.S. housing bubble, the 2008 financial crisis and its long aftermath, including the acquisition of two failed rivals, Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual.

By the time he began his second decade leading JPMorgan, however, just as the legal hangover from the mortgage crisis began to fade, Dimon began seeing new storm clouds on the horizon.

“There will be another crisis,” he wrote in his April 2015 CEO letter, musing on potential triggers and pointing out that recent gyrations in U.S. debt were a “warning shot” for markets.

That passage marked the start of more frequent financial warnings from Dimon, including worries of a recession — which didn’t happen until the 2020 pandemic triggered a two-month contraction — as well as concerns around market meltdowns and the ballooning U.S. deficit.

But it also marked a decade in which JPMorgan’s performance began lapping rivals. After leveling out at roughly $20 billion in annual profit for a few years, the sprawling machine that Dimon oversaw began to truly hit its stride.

JPMorgan generated six record annual profits from 2015 to 2024, twice as many as in Dimon’s first decade as CEO. JPMorgan is now the world’s most valuable publicly traded financial firm and is spending $18 billion annually on technology, including artificial intelligence, to stay that way.

While Dimon seems perpetually worried about the economy and rising geopolitical turmoil, the U.S. economy keeps chugging along. That means unemployment and consumer spending has been more resilient than expected, allowing JPMorgan to make record profits.

In 2022, Dimon told a roomful of professional investors to prepare for an economic storm: “Right now, it’s kind of sunny, things are doing fine, everyone thinks the Fed can handle this,” Dimon said, referring to the Federal Reserve managing the post-pandemic economy.

“That hurricane is right out there, down the road, coming our way,” he said.

“This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” Dimon said the following year in an earnings release.

But investors who listened to Dimon and made their portfolios more conservative would’ve missed on the best two-year run for the S&P 500 in decades.

‘You look stupid’

“It’s an interesting contradiction, no doubt,” Mackovak said about Dimon’s downbeat remarks and his bank’s performance.

“Part of it could just be the brand-building of Jamie Dimon,” the investor said. “Or having a win-win narrative where if something goes bad, you can say, ‘Oh, I called it,’ and if doesn’t, well your bank’s still chugging along.”

According to the former president of a top five U.S. financial institution, bankers know that it’s wiser to broadcast caution than optimism. Former Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince, for example, is best known for his ill-fated comment in 2007 about the mortgage business that “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”

“One learns that there’s a lot more downside to your reputation if you are overly optimistic and things go wrong,” said this former executive, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss Dimon. “It’s damaging to your bank, and you look stupid, whereas the other way around, you just look like you’re being a very cautious, thoughtful banker.”

Banking is ultimately a business of calculated risks, and its CEOs have to be attuned to the downside, to the possibility that they don’t get repaid on their loans, said banking analyst Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo.

“It’s the old cliché that a good banker carries an umbrella when sun is shining; they’re always looking around the corner, always aware of what could go wrong,” Mayo said.

But other longtime Dimon watchers see something else.

Dimon has an “ulterior motive” for his public comments, according to Portales Partners analyst Charles Peabody.

“I think this rhetoric is to keep his management team focused on future risks, whether they happen or not,” Peabody said. “With a high-performing, high-growth franchise, he’s trying to prevent them from becoming complacent, so I think he’s ingrained in their culture a constant war room-type atmosphere.”

Dimon has no shortage of things to worry about, despite the fact that his bank generated a record $58.5 billion in profit last year. Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza rage on, the U.S. national debt grows and President Donald Trump‘s trade policies continue to jolt adversaries and allies alike.

Graveyard of bank logos

“It’s fair to observe that he’s not omniscient and not everything he says comes true,” said Truist bank analyst Brian Foran. “He comes at it more from a perspective that you need to be prepared for X, as opposed to we’re convinced X is going to happen.”

JPMorgan was better positioned for higher interest rates than most of its peers were in 2023, when rates surged and punished those who held low-yielding long-term bonds, Foran noted.

“For many years, he said ‘Be prepared for the 10 year at 5%, and we all thought he was crazy, because it was like 1% at the time,” Foran said. “Turns out that being prepared was not a bad thing.”

Perhaps the best explanation for Dimon’s dour outlook is that, no matter how big and powerful JPMorgan is, financial companies can be fragile. The history of finance is one of the rise and fall of institutions, sometimes when managers become complacent or greedy.

In fact, the graveyard of bank logos that are no longer used includes three — Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual and First Republic — that have been subsumed by JPMorgan.

During his bank’s investor day meeting this month, Dimon pointed out that, in the past decade, JPMorgan has been one of the only firms to earn annual returns of more than 17%.

“If you go back to the 10 years before that, OK, a lot of people earned over 17%,” Dimon said. “Almost every single one went bankrupt. Hear what I just said?

“Almost every single major financial company in the world almost didn’t make it,” he said. “It’s a rough world out there.”

Watch CNBC’s full interview with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

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