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Payrolls rose 22,000 in August in further sign of hiring slowdown

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Payrolls rose 22,000 in August, less than expected in further sign of hiring slowdown

Job creation sputtered in August, adding to recent signs of labor market weakening and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for a widely anticipated interest rate cut later this month.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payrolls to rise by 75,000.

The report showed a marked slowdown from the July increase of 79,000, which was revised up by 6,000. Revisions also showed a net loss of 13,000 in June after the prior estimate was lowered by 27,000.

“The job market is stalling short of the runway,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor. “The labor market is losing lift, and August’s report, along with downward revisions, suggests we’re heading into turbulence without the soft landing achieved.”

Markets largely disregarded the report, with stocks up at the open and Treasury yields sharply lower. Traders in the futures markets raised the probability of a quarter percentage point Fed rate cut to 100% and went even further, pricing in a 12% probability of a half-point move, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

The payrolls count was the first since President Donald Trump fired former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer following the release of the July jobs report a month ago. The move came after the report showed not just a weak level of job creation but also dramatic reductions in previous months’ totals.

In McEntarfer’s place, the president nominated economist E.J. Antoni, a Trump loyalist from the Heritage Foundation who previously had criticized the BLS numbers as being politically distorted. William Wiatrowski is serving as acting BLS commissioner.

While the pace of hiring was slow, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month, meeting the estimate, though the annual gain of 3.7% was slightly below the forecast for 3.8%.

Hiring was held back by a payroll reduction in the federal government, which reported a decline of 15,000.

Health care again led sectors, adding 31,000 jobs, while social assistance contributed 16,000. Wholesale trade and manufacturing both saw declines of 12,000 on the month.

The report comes as markets widely expect the Fed to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point when it releases its next decision Sept. 17. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his fellow policymakers also have been under heavy criticism from the president as they have been on hold since last cutting in December 2024.

Though most economic indicators indicate continued expansion, Fed officials have expressed concern about a slowdown in hiring even as layoffs have held fairly steady. At the same time, policymakers worry that Trump‘s tariffs could reignite inflation, with data indicating a slow but steady increase in prices over recent months.

“The warning bell that rang in the labor market a month ago just got louder. A weaker-than-expected jobs report all but seals a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month,” said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings. “Four straight months of manufacturing job losses stand out. It’s hard to argue that tariff uncertainty isn’t a key driver of this weakness.”

While the establishment survey showed weak job creation, the more volatile household count, used to calculate the unemployment rate, held better news.

That report showed an increase of 288,000 employed, though the ranks of the unemployed also rose by 148,000. The labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.3% while the labor force swelled by 436,000, accounting for the tick higher in the unemployment rate.

A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons climbed to 8.1%, a 0.2 percentage point increase and the highest level since October 2021.

Along with the jobs numbers tally, the BLS on Tuesday will release the initial estimate for annual benchmark revisions to the numbers dating back one year from March 2025.

Revisions have been a source of controversy, particularly in the post-Covid era as the response rate has declined, particularly for the headline establishment survey that asks businesses and government agencies to detail the pace of hiring.

The BLS typically releases its initial estimate with the first batch of survey responses it gets, then updates two times as it gets more information. However, Trump has accused the BLS of being politically biased. The firing of McEntarfer drew widespread criticism in the economics and markets community.

In a CNBC interview, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said he expects the August payrolls count to get revised higher. In the past three years, the initial August count actually was revised lower from the initial estimate.

Correction: The BLS on Tuesday will release the initial estimate for annual benchmark revisions to the numbers dating back one year from March 2025. An earlier version misstated the timing.

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Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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