Finance
Powell forced to stave off uprisings in markets and on his own Fed board as his term ends
Published
6 months agoon
Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025.
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces if not the most difficult challenge of his time in office at least the trickiest in his final months as head of the all-powerful U.S. central bank.
Fresh off his surprisingly tough talk Wednesday on the potential for another interest rate cut in December, Powell will have to steer his way through a suddenly contentious atmosphere among policymakers that will make whichever direction the Fed chooses divisive.
While it’s not the existential economic threat posed by the Covid pandemic in 2020, it nevertheless indicates a level of peril uncommon for the institution.
“December could get messy,” Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said in a client note. “We still think the Fed won’t cut rates again under Chair Powell. But barring a clear signal in either direction from the data, the December decision will likely be even more contentious than October.”
The Fed on Wednesday approved a widely anticipated quarter percentage point rate reduction that took its benchmark rate down to 3.75%-4%. However, Powell warned that another cut in December “is not a foregone conclusion,” something the market was not expecting.
While Wall Street economists and strategists were split over whether the committee will in fact approve another reduction at the Dec. 9-10 meeting, they were in agreement that this is a pivotal moment for Powell and the legacy he ultimately will leave when his term runs out in May.
“Even in a situation without much additional data due to the shutdown, it can actually make sense to push against market pricing to keep optionality going forward,” wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. “A 95% probability assigned to a December cut does not seem consistent with a data-dependent Fed.”
Markets react
For their part, traders weren’t buying the hawkish rhetoric. Fed fund futures pricing Thursday still indicated a 75% probability of a cut in December, though that was down from around 90% the day before, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
But Powell went to great lengths in his post-meeting news conference Wednesday to dispel the notion that the reduction, which would be the third since September, is a slam dunk.
The thrust of his argument was multi-pronged: What data there is available during the government shutdown blackout has largely showed a stable economy though the labor market is a risk; inflation is still above target; and, in an unusual development, there are “strongly differing” views on the FOMC for where policy should move.
Markets were clearly caught off guard by the move, with stocks slipping and Treasury yields surging. The 10-year Treasury yield was solidly above 4% Thursday while the policy-sensitive 2-year note climbed over 3.6% to its highest level in about a month.
“The reaction of the bond market should certainly give Fed officials pause,” wrote Ed Yardeni, head of Yardeni Research and coiner of the term “bond vigilantes” to describe buyers’ strikes in the fixed income markets. “The bond market isn’t buying the Fed’s cover story that interest rates were too restrictive.”
For Powell, the statement regarding December was an unusual step considering markets had been expecting a more neutral tone. Asked whether he was bothered by the strong anticipation of another cut, Powell said markets should take his statement that a reduction “is not a foregone conclusion” should be “taken on board.”
“You’ve got get right in front of that, because you don’t want to surprise the market a couple weeks down the road. Now is the time to do it,” said Dan North, senior economist for North America at Allianz Trade. “He doesn’t usually use words quite so forcefully. So that was interesting, and he’s clearly trying to squash speculation about December. We feel the same way, December is going to be a pause.”
Political overhang
The developments come at a ticklish time for the Fed.
Powell, a favorite target for President Donald Trump’s criticism, has only seven months or so left in his term. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been busy interviewing potential successors — among them current Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both of whom voted in favor of the cut.
In addition, Governor Stephen Miran, a hand-picked Trump appointee who will only serve through January, again dissented from the vote in favor of a half-point.
At the other end of the spectrum, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted “no” as well, but because he wanted to no cut. Between them run a range of views on the normally consensus-driven FOMC.
Whether Powell’s tip of the hat to the doves reflects merely a courtesy or deeper misgivings about cuts will be central to Fed analysis in the coming weeks.
“While the press conference played out somewhat differently than we expected, we have not changed our Fed forecast and continue to see a December cut as quite likely,” Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle wrote. “We suspect that there is substantial opposition on the FOMC to the risk management cuts and that Powell thought it was important to voice other participants’ concerns today in his press conference. But we still think that the arguments for a December cut remain intact.”
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Finance
Why software stocks, 2026’s market dogs, have joined the rally
Published
2 weeks agoon
April 19, 2026

Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.
Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”
It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.
A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.
But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.
The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.
Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.
Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.
Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.
“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.
He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.
For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.
But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.
While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.
Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said.
But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.”
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Finance
Violent downturns could test new ETF strategies, warns MFS Investment
Published
2 weeks agoon
April 17, 2026

New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.
According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.
“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”
His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.
“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”
Liquidity as the real issue?
Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.
“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”
He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.
“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.
Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.
“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.
Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.
“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”
Finance
Anthropic Mythos reveals ‘more vulnerabilities’ for cyberattacks
Published
3 weeks agoon
April 15, 2026
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., right, departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026.
Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.
Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.
“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”
When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.
“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”
The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.
JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.
“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”
‘Attack mode’
Still, the CEO warned that risks extend beyond any single institution, given the interconnected nature of the financial system.
“That doesn’t mean everything that banks rely on is that well protected,” Dimon said. “Banks… are attached to exchanges and all these other things that create other layers of risk.”
JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said the industry has long been aware that AI cuts both ways in cybersecurity.
“These tools can make it easier to find vulnerabilities, but then also potentially be deployed by bad actors in attack mode,” Barnum said on the earnings call. Recent advances from Anthropic and others have simply intensified an existing trend, he said.
Dimon also said that while advanced AI tools are important, old-school cybersecurity practices remain essential.
“A lot of it is hygiene… how do you protect your data? How do you protect your networks, your routers, your hardware, changing your passcode?” he said. “Doing all those things right dramatically reduces the risk.”
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Monday during an earnings call that his bank was testing Mythos, though he declined to comment further.
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