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Powell says Fed is awaiting ‘greater clarity’ on Trump policies before making next move on rates

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., Feb. 11, 2025.

Craig Hudson | Reuters

NEW YORK — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank can wait to see how President Donald Trump‘s aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates.

With markets nervous over Trump’s proposals for tariffs and other issues, Powell reiterated statements he and his colleagues have made recently counseling patience on monetary policy amid the high level of uncertainty.

The White House “is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation,” he said in a speech for the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. “It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.”

Noting that “uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high” Powell said the Fed is “focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”

The comments seem at least somewhat at odds with growing market expectations for interest rate cuts this year.

Markets price in three cuts from the Fed this year

As markets have been roiled by Trump’s shifting positions on his agenda — specifically his tariff plans — traders have priced in the equivalent of three quarter percentage point reductions by the end of the year, starting in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

However, Powell’s comments indicate that the Fed will be in a wait-and-see mode before mapping out further policy easing.

“Policy is not on a preset course,” he said. “Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.”

The policy forum is sponsored by the University of Chicago’s Booth School’s Clark Center for Global Markets and included multiple Fed officials in the audience. Most central bank policymakers lately have said they expect the economy to hold up and inflation to fall back to the Fed’s 2% goal, with the rate climate still unclear as Trump’s policy comes more clearly into view.

In his assessment, Powell also spoke in mostly positive terms about the macro environment, saying the U.S. is in “a good place” with a “solid labor market” and inflation moving back to target.

However, he did note that recent sentiment surveys showed misgivings about the path of inflation, largely a product of the Trump tariff talk. The Fed’s preferred gauge showed 12-month inflation running at a 2.5% rate, or 2.6% when excluding food and energy.

“The path to sustainably returning inflation to our target has been bumpy, and we expect that to continue,” Powell said.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who was not at the forum, said in a speech delivered Friday in Portugal that she sees “important upside risks for inflation” and said that “it could be appropriate to continue holding the policy rate at its current level for some time.”

The remarks also came the same day that the Labor Department reported a gain of 151,000 in nonfarm payrolls for February. Though the total was slightly below market expectations, Powell said the report is more evidence that “the labor market is solid and broadly in balance.”

“Wages are growing faster than inflation, and at a more sustainable pace than earlier in the pandemic recovery,” he said.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in February and were up 4% on an annual basis. The jobs report also indicated that the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1% as household employment dipped.

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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