Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.
“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”
In an upbeat assessment of current conditions, the central bank leader called domestic growth “by far the best of any major economy in the world.”
Specifically, he said the labor market is holding up well despite disappointing job growth in October largely that he attributed to storm damage in the Southeast and labor strikes. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 12,000 for the period.
Powell noted that the unemployment rate has been rising but has flattened out in recent months and remains low by historical standards.
On the question of inflation, he cited progress that has been “broad based,” noting that Fed officials expect it to continue to drift back towards the central bank’s 2% goal. Inflation data this week, though, showed a slight uptick in both consumer and producer prices, with 12-month rates pulling further away from the Fed mandate.
Still, Powell said the two indexes are indicating inflation by the Fed’s preferred measure at 2.3% in October, or 2.8% excluding food and energy.
“Inflation is running much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but it is not there yet. We are committed to finishing the job,” said Powell, who noted that getting there could be “on a sometimes-bumpy path.”
The remarks come a week after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the central bank’s benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, pushing it down into a range between 4.5%-4.75%. That followed a half-point cut in September.
Powell has called the moves a recalibration of monetary policy that no longer needs to be focused primarily on stomping out inflation and now has a balanced aim at sustaining the labor market as well. Markets largely expect the Fed to continue with another quarter-point cut in December and then a few more in 2025.
However, Powell was noncommittal when it came to providing his own forecast. The Fed is seeking to guide its key rate down to a neutral setting that neither boosts nor inhibits growth, but is not sure what the end point will be.
“We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent,” he said. “We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting. But the path for getting there is not preset.”
The Fed also has been allowing proceeds from its bond holdings to roll off its mammoth balance sheet each month. There have been no indications of when that process might end.
Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.
It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.
“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”
But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.
The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.
Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.
Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.
Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.
Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.
But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.
Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.
“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”
While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”
Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.
Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.
Gas & groceries
Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.
It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.
Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.
The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.
While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.
“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading. JPMorgan , Bank of America , Wells Fargo — The three U.S. banks that dominate transactions on the Zelle payments network all rose around 2% despite a Friday lawsuit from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over Zelle payment fraud. Crypto-linked stocks — Shares of MicroStrategy , Coinbase and Robinhood were respectively trading 6%, 1% and 3% higher. The stocks had declined in early Friday trading in tandem with bitcoin prices falling from their highs . Novo Nordisk — The stock slid 17% on the heels of the Danish pharmaceutical giant’s experimental CagriSema weight loss drug posting weaker-than-expected late-stage trial results . Shares of rival obesity drug maker Eli Lilly jumped more than 4% following the disappointing results, while Dexcom , maker of diabetes management devices, added about 7%. Mission Produce — The avocado producer surged 20% after its fiscal fourth quarter results topped Wall Street’s estimates. U.S. Steel — The steel producer lost 3% after issuing fourth-quarter guidance that was weaker than expected. U.S. Steel expects a loss of between 25 cents to 29 cents per share for its current quarter, while analysts had estimated a per-share profit of 22 cents, according to FactSet. Occidental Petroleum , Sirius XM — Shares of the Houston-based energy producer jumped nearly 5%, while radio station operator Sirius XM popped 10%. A regulatory filing showed Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway added to its stakes in these companies after purchases during the past three sessions. Berkshire also hiked its bet on internet stock VeriSign , prompting the tech name to jump more than 3%. Trump Media & Technology Group — The stock slipped 2% after President-elect Donald Trump transferred his entire stake of shares to a revocable trust this week, regulatory filings showed. The stock was also weighed down by a failure on Thursday night of a House Republican spending deal endorsed by Trump to avert a government shutdown. FedEx — Shares advanced more than 1% after the shipping company said it would spin off its freight business . Separately, fiscal second quarter adjusted earnings of $4.05 per share topped LSEG consensus estimates of $3.90 a share. However, revenue fell short of expectations. Carnival — The cruise line operator jumped more than 5%. Carnival says it sees strong demand in 2025 and 2026. Fiscal fourth quarter results also topped the Street’s estimates, as Carnival reported adjusted earnings of 14 cents a share on $5.94 billion in revenue, while analysts polled by LSEG sought eight cents per share in earnings and revenue of $5.93 billion. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Michelle Fox, Alex Harring and Yun Li contributed reporting.
Rohit Chopra, director of the CFPB, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled “The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Semi-Annual Report to Congress,” in the Dirksen Building on Nov. 30, 2023.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Friday sued the operator of the Zelle payments network and the three U.S. banks that dominant transactions on it, alleging that the firms failed to properly investigate fraud complaints or give victims reimbursements.
The CFPB said customers of the three banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo — have lost more than $870 million since the launch of Zelle in 2017. Zelle, a peer-to-peer payments network run by bank-owned fintech firm Early Warning Services, allows for instant payments to other consumers and businesses and has quickly surged to become the biggest such service in the country.
“The nation’s largest banks felt threatened by competing payment apps, so they rushed to put out Zelle,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “By their failing to put in place proper safeguards, Zelle became a gold mine for fraudsters, while often leaving victims to fend for themselves.”
This story is developing. Please check back for updates.