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Private sector added 183K jobs in January

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Private sector employers added 183,000 jobs in January, payroll giant ADP reported Wednesday, as annual pay rose 4.7% year over year.

The service-providing sector accounted for the bulk of the job gains, at 190,000 jobs, including 14,000 jobs added in professional and business services such as accounting and tax preparation, along with 13,000 in financial activities such as banking, and 54,000 in the leisure and hospitality sector. However, that was offset by losses in the goods-producing sector, which lost a total of 6,000 jobs, with a loss of 13,000 jobs in manufacturing partially offset by gains of 4,000 jobs in the natural resources and mining sector and 3,000 jobs in construction.

The decision by Waffle House to raise the prices on its menu by 50 cents an egg indicates the impact of inflation and consumer demand in the leisure and hospitality sector.

“A consumer obviously is disappointed about the price of eggs, but is not slowing spending when it comes to entertainment or restaurants, maybe not getting an omelet, but going for the waffles instead, but still showing up when it comes to this sector,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson during a conference call Wednesday with reporters. “Where we’ve seen a little bit of a slowdown over the last few months is more in business services. Professional and business services at 14,000 was not a highlight or a strong point since 2024, and a little bit of a slowdown in financial activities as well. We’re going to be really watchful to see the places of strength as we move through the year. As long as the consumer, though, is in good shape, I think we’re going to see hiring follow the consumer.” 

Small businesses added 39,000 jobs in January, including 23,000 in businesses with between one and 19 employees and 16,000 in businesses with between 20 and 49 employees. Medium-size establishments added 92,000 jobs, including 53,000 in companies with between 50 and 249 employees and 39,000 in organizations with between 250 and 499 employees. Large establishments with 500 employees or more added 69,000 jobs in January.

Year-over-year pay growth was 4.7% for people who stayed in their jobs, while pay growth for those who changed jobs was 6.8%. In professional and business services, the rate of pay growth was 4.6% for job stayers.

“There’s still a premium to changing jobs, but that premium has also been steady,” said Richardson. “It’s about 2.1% right now. We’ve seen it be as high as 7 or 9%. There isn’t as much benefit from job switching as there’s been in the past.”

She noted that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest JOLTS report, or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, indicated fewer employees are quitting their jobs. 

“Quit rates are lower than they’ve been even before the pandemic,” said Richardson. “We have a super low quit rate now compared to where it was during the Great Resignation.”

ADP also dug into the numbers for Los Angeles in the wake of the devastating wildfires last month. Richardson noted the region accounts for 3% of the U.S. workforce and 25% of California employment. ADP found a lower amount of hours for the three-week time horizon around the fires compared to a year ago. In the week of January 5, there was a 5% to 10% drop in paychecks in the areas most affected by the fires, but since three weeks ago, the paychecks have mostly recovered. 

“What’s interesting is where we saw the drop in labor market activity,” said Richardson. “It was really in manufacturing for the most part. We actually saw a boost in hours in leisure and hospitality. That makes sense if you think about the amount of people who were displaced during the fires, staying at hotels, maybe ordering more takeout. During that time, we saw a boost in hiring in that sector for the affected region.”

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Accounting

Accounting firms seeing increased profits

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Accounting firms are reporting bigger profits and more clients, according to a new report.

The report, released Monday by Xero, found that nearly three-quarters (73%) of firms reported increased profits over the past year and 56% added new clients thanks to operational efficiency and expanded service offerings.

Some 85% of firms now offer client advisory services, a big spike from 41% in 2023, indicating a strategic shift toward delivering forward-looking financial guidance that clients increasingly expect.

AI adoption is also reshaping the profession, with 80% of firms confident it will positively affect their practice. Currently, the most common use cases for AI include: delivering faster and more responsive client services (33%), enhancing accuracy by reducing bookkeeping and accounting errors (33%), and streamlining workflows through the automation of routine tasks (32%).

“The widespread adoption of AI has been a turning point for the accounting profession, giving accountants an opportunity to scale their impact and take on a more strategic advisory role,” said Ben Richmond, managing director, North America, at Xero, in a statement. “The real value lies not just in working more efficiently, but working smarter, freeing up time to elevate the human element of the profession and in turn, strengthen client relationships.”

Some of the main challenges faced by firms include economic uncertainty (38%), mastering AI (36%) and rising client expectations for strategic advice (35%). 

While 85% of firms have embraced cloud platforms, a sizable number still lag behind, missing out on benefits such as easier data access from anywhere (40%) and enhanced security (36%).

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Accounting

Private equity is investing in accounting: What does that mean for the future of the business?

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Private equity firms have bought five of the top 26 accounting firms in the past three years as they mount a concerted strategy to reshape the industry. 

The trend should not come as a surprise. It’s one we’ve seen play out in several industries from health care to insurance, where a combination of low-risk, recurring revenue, scalability and an aging population of owners create a target-rich environment. For small to midsized accounting firms, the trend is exacerbated by a technological revolution that’s truly transforming the way accounting work is done, and a growing talent crisis that is threatening tried-and-true business models.

How will this type of consolidation affect the accounting business, and what do firms and their clients need to be on the lookout for as the marketplace evolves?

Assessing the opportunity… and the risk

First and foremost, accounting firm owners need to be aware of just how desirable they are right now. While there has been some buzz in the industry about the growing presence of private equity firms, most of the activity to date has focused on larger, privately held firms. In fact, when we recently asked tax professionals about their exposure to private equity funding in our 2025 State of Tax Professionals Report, we found that just 5% of firms have actually inked a deal and only 11% said they are planning to look, or are currently looking, for a deal with a private equity firm. Another 8% said they are open to discussion. On the one hand, that’s almost a quarter of firms feeling open to private equity investments in some way. But the lion’s share of respondents —  87% — said they were not interested.

Recent private equity deal volume suggests that the holdouts might change their minds when they have a real offer on the table. According to S&P Global, private equity and venture capital-backed deal value in the accounting, auditing and taxation services sector reached more than $6.3 billion in 2024, the highest level since 2015, and the trend shows no signs of slowing. Firm owners would be wise to start watching this trend to see how it might affect their businesses — whether they are interested in selling or not.

Focus on tech and efficiencies of scale

The reason this trend is so important to everyone in the industry right now is that the private equity firms entering this space are not trying to become accountants. They are looking for profitable exits. And they will do that by seizing on a critical inflection point in the industry that’s making it possible to scale accounting firms more rapidly than ever before by leveraging technology to deliver a much wider range of services at a much lower cost. So, whether your firm is interested in partnering with private equity or dead set on going it alone, the hyperscaling that’s happening throughout the industry will affect you one way or another.

Private equity thrives in fragmented businesses where the ability to roll up companies with complementary skill sets and specialized services creates an outsized growth opportunity. Andrew Dodson, managing partner at Parthenon Capital, recently commented after his firm took a stake in the tax and advisory firm Cherry Bekaert, “We think that for firms to thrive, they need to make investments in people and technology, and, obviously, regulatory adherence, to really differentiate themselves in the market. And that’s going to require scale and capital to do it. That’s what gets us excited.”

Over time, this could reshape the industry’s market dynamics by creating the accounting firm equivalent of the Traveling Wilburys — supergroups capable of delivering a wide range of specialized services that smaller, more narrowly focused firms could never previously deliver. It could also put downward pressure on pricing as these larger, platform-style firms start finding economies of scale to deliver services more cost-effectively.

The technology factor

The great equalizer in all of this is technology. Consistently, when I speak to tax professionals actively working in the market today, their top priorities are increased efficiency, growth and talent. Firms recognize they need to streamline workflows and processes through more effective use of technology, and they are investing heavily in AI, automation and data analytics capabilities to do that. Private equity firms, of course, are also investing in tech as they assemble their tax and accounting dream teams, in many cases raising the bar for the industry.

The question is: Can independent firms leverage technology fast enough to keep up with their deep-pocketed competition?

Many firms believe they can, with some even going so far as to publicly declare their independence.  Regardless of the path small to midsized firms take to get there, technology-enabled growth is going to play a key role in the future of the industry. Market dynamics that have been unfolding for the last decade have been accelerated with the introduction of serious investors, and everyone in the industry — large and small — is going to need to up their games to stay competitive.

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Trump tax bill would help the richest, hurt the poorest, CBO says

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The House-passed version of President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending bill would deliver a financial blow to the poorest Americans but be a boon for higher-income households, according to a new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.

The bottom 10% of households would lose an average of about $1,600 in resources per year, amounting to a 3.9% cut in their income, according to the analysis released Thursday. Those decreases are largely attributable to cuts in the Medicaid health insurance program and food aid through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

Households in the highest 10% of incomes would see an average $12,000 boost in resources, amounting to a 2.3% increase in their incomes. Those increases are mainly attributable to reductions in taxes owed, according to the report from the nonpartisan CBO.

Households in the middle of the income distribution would see an increase in resources of $500 to $1,000, or between 0.5% and 0.8% of their income. 

The projections are based on the version of the tax legislation that House Republicans passed last month, which includes much of Trump’s economic agenda. The bill would extend tax cuts passed under Trump in 2017 otherwise due to expire at the end of the year and create several new tax breaks. It also imposes new changes to the Medicaid and SNAP programs in an effort to cut spending.

Overall, the legislation would add $2.4 trillion to US deficits over the next 10 years, not accounting for dynamic effects, the CBO previously forecast.

The Senate is considering changes to the legislation including efforts by some Republican senators to scale back cuts to Medicaid.

The projected loss of safety-net resources for low-income families come against the backdrop of higher tariffs, which economists have warned would also disproportionately impact lower-income families. While recent inflation data has shown limited impact from the import duties so far, low-income families tend to spend a larger portion of their income on necessities, such as food, so price increases hit them harder.

The House-passed bill requires that able-bodied individuals without dependents document at least 80 hours of “community engagement” a month, including working a job or participating in an educational program to qualify for Medicaid. It also includes increased costs for health care for enrollees, among other provisions.

More older adults also would have to prove they are working to continue to receive SNAP benefits, also known as food stamps. The legislation helps pay for tax cuts by raising the age for which able bodied adults must work to receive benefits to 64, up from 54. Under the current law, some parents with dependent children under age 18 are exempt from work requirements, but the bill lowers the age for the exemption for dependent children to 7 years old. 

The legislation also shifts a portion of the cost for federal food aid onto state governments.

CBO previously estimated that the expanded work requirements on SNAP would reduce participation in the program by roughly 3.2 million people, and more could lose or face a reduction in benefits due to other changes to the program. A separate analysis from the organization found that 7.8 million people would lose health insurance because of the changes to Medicaid.

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