The Republican sweep of the presidency and Congress has transformed what could have been a struggle to merely renew Donald Trump’s tax cuts into a multipronged campaign to slash levies in new and bigger ways.
The incoming Republican majorities in the House and Senate mean Trump can enact a tax bill without making concessions to Democrats. Republicans will only be constrained by how much deficit spending the party’s lawmakers and global financial markets can tolerate.
“That is the several trillion-dollar question,” said Rohit Kumar, co-leader of PwC’s national tax office and a former tax policy advisor to Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.
Donald Trump during a campaign event in Las Vegas
Ian Maule/Getty Images
Owners of closely held companies and high-net worth families stand to benefit with Congress now more likely to renew expiring provisions in the 2017 law providing a 20% deduction on pass-through business income and an elevated estate tax exemption, said Gordon Gray, a former Republican Senate Budget Committee aide and now executive director of the Pinpoint Policy Institute.
Many Democrats campaigned on a tax-the-rich agenda and advocated paying for other tax cuts by targeting those provisions, as well as rolling back the law’s tax cuts for corporations and individuals making more than $400,000 per year.
Republicans’ election success not only bolsters the 2017 tax cuts but opens the way for consideration of ideas such as further cutting the corporate tax rate and exempting tips from federal income taxes, said Grover Norquist, an influential voice in Republican tax policy debates and president of the conservative group Americans for Tax Reform.
Trump enthusiastically promoted both the corporate-rate reduction and the break for tipped income during the presidential campaign and also promised myriad other tax breaks.
The first thing Republicans will have to negotiate is how large the tax-cut package will be and how much they’re willing to increase a federal deficit that reached $1.83 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept 30. Just extending the expiring tax cuts would drive up deficits by $4.6 trillion over 10 years, and all of Trump’s campaign plans would add as much as $7.75 trillion, according to estimates by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog group.
Stephen Moore, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and informal Trump advisor, said the tax cuts will stimulate economic growth and Republicans can also cancel spending approved under President Joe Biden to help offset the cost of the cuts. Still, the bill is likely to have some level of deficit financing, he said.
That sets up a clash within the GOP between deficit hawks and lawmakers who don’t think revenue losses from tax cuts need to be offset, said Sage Eastman, a Republican strategist and former aide to the House Ways and Means Committee, which has jurisdiction over tax legislation.
Republican Senator Mike Crapo of Idaho, who is in line to chair the Senate Finance Committee, has said “pro-growth” tax policies don’t need to be paid for. The 2017 tax cuts did produce some positive economic effects, but they were far more modest than the Trump administration and some Republicans forecast, said Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute.
“It will be important to watch to see if markets start to panic if enough deficit spending is being contemplated, or if they’ll decide to look through it,” said Martha Gimbel, executive director of The Budget Lab at Yale and a former White House economist under Biden.
Trump has vowed to impose a tariff of 10% to 20% on all imported goods plus 60% on Chinese products and promoted that as an offset for tax cuts. But lawmakers will have to decide whether to enact those tariffs in the tax bill so the revenue can be officially counted — a difficult vote for Republicans, especially those who want free trade. They could also just assume revenue would continue from presidentially imposed duties, even though Trump might later strike a trade deal that drops them.
“There’s always a way to make things work,” said Dave Camp, a senior policy advisor at PwC and a former Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates the tariffs could raise only about $225 billion a year. Kimberly Clausing, a former Treasury Department official in the Biden administration and a UCLA professor of tax law, said the GOP will probably overestimate the revenue from tariffs and ignore the negative economic impact of the duties.
Republicans have said they want to enact a tax bill within the first 100 days of Trump’s second term, though it’ll probably take longer to negotiate the details, Kumar said.
The narrow GOP margin in the House gives small bands of Republican lawmakers leverage to demand specific tax breaks, and the Democratic strategy will be to focus on vulnerable Republican members in swing districts to push them to support or oppose individual provisions, said Scott Mulhauser, a Democratic strategist and veteran of legislative policy battles.
The Republican “trifecta” also sets up a lobbying free-for-all among business groups to persuade lawmakers and the White House to create new tax breaks to boost their industries. That intensifies the internecine struggle among Republicans over what to include in the package and how to contain the cost.
Skeptics said they doubt all of the tax cuts Trump proposed during the campaign — which grew so numerous that even some of his advisors are unclear about which proposals he’s most committed to — would be enacted because of the cost and difficulty of instituting the entire list.
Trump promised he would restore the full value of the state and local tax deduction, or SALT, a popular break in high-tax states including New York, New Jersey and California. Trump’s signature tax law capped the value of that deduction at $10,000, regardless of marital status.
While some changes to SALT such as raising the cap or doubling the deduction for married couples filing jointly are possible, eliminating the limit entirely isn’t likely because of the revenue loss: $1.2 trillion over 10 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Minnesota approved a bill on Monday night to create additional pathways to CPA licensure, and it awaits the signature of Gov. Tim Walz.
As part of an omnibus bill, Senate File 3045, it creates two new pathways to CPA licensure: a bachelor’s degree plus two years of experience, or a master’s degree plus one year of experience. The new pathways will be effective Jan. 1, 2026.
The bill sunsets the current 150-hour credit rule after June 30, 2030, and establishes automatic mobility and practice privileges one day following the bill’s ratification. All candidates must still pass all parts of the CPA exam.
Minnesota State Capitol building in St. Paul
Jill Clardy/stock.adobe.com
“It’s a step forward in the right direction,” said Geno Fragnito, government relations director at the Minnesota Society of CPAs. “It allows some flexibility to hopefully bring in people who are on the fence about whether they could afford the extra year of education and whether the accounting profession fit into their long-term goals because of that.”
Generally, the governor has 14 days to act on the presented bill. Otherwise, without any action, the bill becomes law. Minnesota is one of more than a dozen states that have already passed changes to licensure requirements in an ongoing effort to address the profession’s talent shortage.
Minnesota was the first state to propose licensing changes in December 2022.
“Initial strong opposition eventually turned into support as more professionals, state societies, universities, government entities and businesses rallied behind broadening pathways to CPA licensure with the first state, Ohio, passing its law in January,” said an MNCPA blog post.
“There were a lot of people — chairs ahead of me and other people on the board and at the Minnesota society — that have done a ton of work on this and really deserve a lot of credit for all of the conversations they had and the testifying they did,” said MNCPA chair Eric O’Link. “We’re very appreciative of our legislative sponsors and everybody who helped make it a reality.”
No more paper checks;death and tax debt;the perfect time to onboard software;and other highlights from our favorite tax bloggers.
Truths and consequences
Wolters Kluwer (https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/solutions/tax-accounting-us/industry-news): The snowflake in the blizzard: President Trump has signed an executive order effectively eliminating the U.S. government’s long-standing practice of issuing paper checks — including refunds — to eliminate inefficiencies, reduce costs and enhance payment security. Key provisions of the order and what it could mean to the profession.
Taxnotes (https://www.taxnotes.com/procedurally-taxing): IRC provisions governing consolidated returns are grounded in the identification of an “affiliated group of corporations” (or an “affiliated group”) for which a consolidated return may be made. A few foundational matters and fact patterns to spot an affiliated group.
Current Federal Tax Developments (https://www.currentfederaltaxdevelopments.com/): A U.S. appeals court recently addressed a critical issue for estate tax practitioners: the deductibility of transfers mandated by a prenuptial agreement as “claims against the estate.”
Withum (https://www.withum.com/resources/): When companies face new tariffs or increases to existing ones (who doesn’t, these days?), mechanisms that can be implemented are bonded warehouses, the Customs Reconciliation Program or setting up a foreign trade zone. Plusses and minuses of each, including tax considerations.
Dean Dorton (https://deandorton.com/insights/): How tariffs factor into inventory accounting for income tax purposes, as well as pitfalls that can trigger unfavorable tax consequences.
To the Swift
Taxjar (https://www.taxjar.com/resources/blog): Starting a new biz is likely a time-sucking thrill-a-minute for clients. Take one thing off their to-do list with this sales tax compliance checklist.
TaxProf Blog (http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/): Taylor Swift’s hard-earned reputation as a savvy music mogul inspires other creative spirits to be “fearless” in their artistic endeavors. But a taxpayer’s financial ability to live out their wildest dreams may depend on their chosen medium.
The Sales Tax People (https://sales.tax/expert-articles/): The latest that e-commerce clients need to know about marketplace facilitator laws.
Sovos (https://sovos.com/blog/): While we’re on the subject, what is sales tax, anyway? A step-by-step look.
The National Association of Tax Professionals (https://blog.natptax.com/): This week’s “You Make the Call” looks at Leo, owner of a small HVAC business who recently hosted a summer kick-off barbecue at his shop for his five technicians (he also participated). No customers or other management staff attended. Leo provided sodas, juice, burgers and brats. Is the cost of the food and beverages fully deductible or subject to the 50% limit?
Boyum & Barenscheer (https://www.myboyum.com/blog/): Two financial planning tools to help manufacturer clients weather uncertainty.
CLA (https://www.claconnect.com/en/resources?pageNum=0): After three filing seasons with Schedules K-2 and K-3, patterns and pain points have emerged. Introduced to improve the reporting of international tax info, these schedules have had far-reaching impacts even for real estate and private equity partnerships with little or no foreign activity.
TaxProCenter (https://accountants.intuit.com/taxprocenter/): Once firms invest in a new tax engine, onboarding and data conversion go on the back burner as firms deal with extended returns. This seemingly logical and unavoidable shift sets the stage for potential mayhem come January. Five reasons extension season is a great time for onboarding.
The Rosenberg Associates (https://rosenbergassoc.com/blog/): Favorite headline of the week: “To PE, or Not to PE, Is That the Question?”
Compliance professionals at top 10 firm Grant Thornton will now be making use of the newly-enhanced CompliAI platform, which has gone from a largely spreadsheet-driven classic automation solution to one infused with generative AI from end to end to streamline and enhance service delivery.
The platform uses advanced AI capabilities, including GenAI Assistants and a GPT Model Series to automate key tasks such as risk and control rationalization, question and procedure generation, and document request list creation. For example, it will suggest questions for the professional to ask, and based on the answers, generate additional followup questions and tasks. The software also features a suite of tools, including dashboards, task management, in-app commenting, notifications, a methodology document library, and a centralized file repository. This is so professionals can conduct tasks in minutes that would have traditionally taken days or weeks.
Mike Kempe, chief information officer of Grant Thornton Advisors, noted that beyond efficiencies, another major intention with this solution was to create a more consistent experience for their clients. Different professionals approach things in different ways, both in and out of the accounting world, and so the client experience can vary widely depending on who is working on an engagement at a given time. It is hoped that this new platform can smooth out some of that variation so clients can get a better idea of what to expect.
“We’re providing a better service to our client and a much more consistent one as well because we’re no longer relying on the quality of individuals, we’re relying on AI… In the past, the issue was that if I was providing a service I would do it one way, and [if] John was providing the service, he would do it a different way, so clients would get inconsistent quality. With this, we increase the quality, and it’s going to be much more consistent,” he said.
Paradoxically, though, he believes this will actually serve to create a more, not less, personalized experience for clients. By using AI to get through the routine processes that the accountant would ordinarily be doing themselves, they have more time and energy for close collaboration with the specific client and so can take on a more strategic role in compliance engagements.
“Our professionals right now [are focused] on how to use AI and on building that relationship with the client and making this a much more personalized service than we have had in the past,” he said.
The newly-enhanced CompliAI platform is just one more step in GT’s wider AI ambitions. Kempe said they plan to replicate this approach across many more service sectors. The firm has a roadmap for at least five more AI-based solutions released over the next year and a half as part of its vision to incorporate the technology throughout its numerous practice areas. When pressed on the particulars he declined to be too specific, but said people can expect many different solutions.
“There’s a lot of productivity solutions that we’re building at the moment, and we’re working with our partners and some startups as well [to roll it our internally.] There’s a couple more AI solutions in the audit space as well as in the tax space that we’re currently working on… But suffice to say, we’re investing heavily. We’re on a very significant roadmap to put AI into everything we do. That’s our mission,” he said.