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Social Security turns 90. Here’s what could happen to future benefits

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1 year ago

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President Franklin D. Roosevelt signs the Social Security Act into law on Aug. 14, 1935.

FPG | Archive Photos | Getty Images

Ninety years ago, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act, which created the program that now sends monthly benefit checks to millions of Americans, including retirees, disabled individuals and families.

But by the time the program celebrates its centennial, benefits may not look the same as today’s Social Security payments.

The reason: Social Security’s trust funds, which the program relies on to help pay benefits, are facing a looming shortfall.

Starting in 2033 — two years before its 100th anniversary — the program may only be able to pay 77% of scheduled benefits for retirees, their families and survivors, Social Security’s trustees projected in an annual report released in June.

However, should those funds be combined with Social Security’s trust fund for disability benefits, as has happened in prior emergencies, payments may be cut one year later, in 2034. At that point, 81% of scheduled benefits would be payable, Social Security’s trustees project.

Importantly, Social Security benefits would not disappear entirely. The program would still have ongoing income from payroll taxes to help fund benefit payments.

That scenario is not inevitable. Changes to the program may be enacted sooner to shore up its funding and prevent sudden benefit cuts.

Most, 83%, of surveyed Americans think Social Security reform should be a top priority for Congress, even if it means benefit cuts or tax increases for future beneficiaries, according to a new poll from the Bipartisan Policy Center‘s American Savings Education Council. The group polled more than 4,000 adults.

“This is the time for action,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-Louisiana, who is among the lawmakers pitching a plan to help restore the program’s solvency, told CNBC.com.

Pitch for a new $1.5 trillion investment fund

Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana speaks to the press on Capitol Hill on Feb. 10, 2021.

Nicholas Kamm | AFP | Getty Images

Cassidy has teamed up with Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Virginia., to co-lead a bipartisan pitch — the centerpiece of which is a new $1.5 trillion investment fund for Social Security, separate from Social Security’s current trust funds.

The initial $1.5 trillion outlay would be borrowed. Because the money would be held in escrow and could be liquified, it would not increase the national debt, Cassidy said.

The funds would be invested more aggressively than Social Security’s current trust funds, which are invested in U.S. Treasury securities. Because those investments are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, they are secure. However, the average rate of return over a one-year period was around 2.5% in 2024.

In contrast, the S&P 500 has returned an annual average of around 10%, though those results vary from year to year.

Investing the proposed separate investment fund in stocks, bonds and other investments could cover an estimated 70% of Social Security’s trust fund shortfall, Cassidy said. That would make it much more doable for lawmakers to address the remaining 30%, he said.

Sen. Bill Cassidy on Social Security: Proposing changes to Social Security trust fund

The senators’ plan does not include any benefit cuts or tax increases for seniors, Cassidy said. It would provide benefit increases for two cohorts — beneficiaries age 80 and older who are at less than 200% of the federal poverty level, and low earners who have a long work history earning low wages.

Lawmakers could consider increasing the size of the investment fund to help cover the rest of the shortfall, he said.

Rights to manage the fund would be left to a bidding process, which could result in lower fees and higher returns, Cassidy said.

Critics, including Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., have said investing in other securities as the senators’ plan suggests would privatize Social Security and therefore threaten Americans’ retirement security.

In response, Cassidy points to the federal Railroad Retirement system, which in 2001 moved from investing solely in government bonds to more aggressive instruments, including stocks. That change was approved by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle and has helped the program operate with a positive balance today.

Still, some experts are dubious.

In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said while he applauded the first bipartisan plan to fix Social Security in two decades, he questions whether the plan could work.

Among the concerns he details are the amount of money that the plan requires the government to borrow, as well as the increased investment risk that would be required without a guarantee of higher returns.

Another proposal calls for the wealthy to pay more

Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., and other lawmakers discuss the Social Security 2100 Act, which would include increased minimum benefits, on Capitol Hill on Oct. 26, 2021.

Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Cassidy and Kaine are not the only lawmakers looking at potential solutions to solve Social Security’s dilemma.

Larson has a plan that has been reintroduced in multiple sessions of Congress that would provide benefit increases while increasing taxes on the wealthy. The last time Social Security was meaningfully enhanced was in 1971 under President Richard Nixon, Larson said in an interview with CNBC.com.

More than 5 million Americans currently receive below poverty-level checks from Social Security, according to Larson.

Larson’s most recent proposal from 2023 would temporarily increase benefits for all beneficiaries, while also providing specific enhancements for those receiving minimum benefits; widows or widowers in two-income households; and children of deceased, disabled or retired workers who are full-time students. The plan also proposes changing the way annual cost-of-living adjustments are calculated.

To pay for those benefit increases, Larson’s plan calls for income over $400,000 to be subject to payroll taxes. In 2025, workers stop contributing to Social Security for the year once they reach an income of $176,100. Both employers and employees pay a 6.2% tax on wages up to that threshold.

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The Bipartisan Policy Center poll finds a majority of Americans support lifting the cap on income subject to payroll taxes, with 65% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans. That includes a “significant majority” of respondents with annual household incomes over $200,000, according to the results.

Larson’s plan also called for a separate 12.4% tax on net investment income for taxpayers making over $400,000.

Larson plans to reintroduce his plan in the current session of Congress with some tweaks.

“We’ll be rolling out a presentation in September that will include not only protecting Social Security, but also enhancing it,” Larson said.

The plan will also make it Congress’ responsibility to act more frequently to help ensure benefits continue to meet individuals’ needs, he said.

“I think that that’s got to be paramount to keeping this in check,” Larson said.

Larson plans to push for a vote on his bill. But he also wants an open debate.

“There has to be a public discussion,” Larson said.

What Americans want from Social Security

A person holds a sign reading ‘Save Our Social Security’ in support of fair taxation near the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. on April 10, 2025. Tax justice advocates attended a rally to speak out against President Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthy, and to urge members of Congress to intervene.

Bryan Dozier | Afp | Getty Images

Most Americans — 64% of Democratic voters and 61% of Republicans — want Congress to work together across party lines to reform Social Security, the Bipartisan Policy Center found in its recent poll.

That’s as 41% of surveyed Americans expect Social Security will be their primary source of income in retirement, according to the BPC. Moreover, 74% of Americans worry Social Security will run out before they retire, while 80% worry Congress will cut benefits.

Nevertheless, the poll results show Americans would welcome a “comprehensive, balanced reform package that entails both benefit adjustments and tax increases,” said Emerson Sprick, director of retirement and labor policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Increasing taxes on the wealthiest 1% to help repair the program’s finances had the most support among BPC’s poll respondents, with 85% of Democrats and 72% of Republicans. That’s in contrast to the 65% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans who support a higher cap on payroll taxes.

A majority of voters also support adjusting benefits for those most in need, with 63% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans; reducing benefits for higher income individuals, with 64% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans; and increasing the amount that both employees and employers pay into the program, with 61% of both Democrats and Republicans. Most voters also support encouraging legal immigration that would result in more workers paying into the program, with 64% of Democrats and 54% of Republicans.

The urgency of addressing Social Security’s funding woes will increase over time.

Two new laws have provided generous enhancements for certain Social Security beneficiaries. The Social Security Fairness Act increased benefits for some public pensioners, while President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful” budget and tax package provides a tax deduction for seniors.

The changes in both laws will accelerate the trust fund depletion dates. The Fairness Act was included the Social Security trustees’ latest projections. The more recent “big beautiful” legislation will move the insolvency date for the retirement trust fund to late 2032 up from the early 2033 trustees’ projection, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Senators who are elected in 2026 will be in office during those projected depletion deadlines, Sprick said.

As the trust fund depletion dates come closer, there will be more discussion about Social Security’s future on Capitol Hill, Sprick said. The current proposals on Capitol Hill are a start, he said.

“We’ve put this off for way too long; the political process moves very slowly,” Sprick said. “But that does not negate the fact that these conversations are moving in the right direction.”

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$20,000 Caution Bond Requirement for US Visa Applications imposed on 50 Countries

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6 days ago

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August 8, 2026

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The United States Department of State has officially implemented a revised visa policy introducing a mandatory posting requirement for caution payments of up to $20,000 on select foreign travel applications. Under the updated regulatory framework, consular officials are authorized to require temporary nonimmigrant visa applicants from targeted foreign countries to post a refundable financial bond of $20,000 as a condition for visa issuance. The policy mechanism is designed to address diplomatic concerns regarding high overstay rates among temporary visitor, business, and educational visa categories.

The caution bond pilot program applies selectively to foreign nationals from designated countries whose diplomatic entities record historical visa overstay rates exceeding established federal thresholds. Under administrative guidelines published by the State Department, the full financial deposit is posted directly to a dedicated federal escrow account prior to final visa issuance. The entire caution payment is automatically refunded to the applicant upon verified proof of timely departure from the United States in strict compliance with the authorized duration of stay. Conversely, failure to depart within the legal timeframe results in full forfeiture of the posted financial bond to the United States government.

Diplomatic representatives and travel policy experts have expressed varying perspectives regarding the operational implementation of the caution bond system. Administration officials emphasize that the measure serves as an effective, market-based incentive to enforce international travel compliance and preserve domestic immigration security standards. However, international trade organizations and foreign diplomatic missions have raised concerns regarding the financial burden imposed on legitimate business travelers, foreign students, and commercial partners from developing nations.

The United States finalized the rule to make the temporary visa bond program permanent, taking effect on August 3, 2026. The updated permanent regulation replaces the prior 12-month pilot, eliminates the lowest $5,000 tier, and raises the maximum required bond amount to $20,000 for specific B-1/B-2 business and tourist visa applicants.

Here is the list of the 50 countries on the list as o August 3, 2026

African Nations (31 Countries)

  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Cabo Verde (Cape Verde)
  • Central African Republic
  • Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
  • Djibouti
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Malawi
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Tanzania
  • Togo
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe

Asian & Eastern European Nations (11 Countries)

  • Bangladesh
  • Bhutan
  • Cambodia
  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Nepal
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Tajikistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Uzbekistan

Caribbean & Latin American Nations (5 Countries)

  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Grenada
  • Venezuela

Oceanian Nations (3 Countries)

  • Fiji
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu

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Next-Generation Retirement Planning: Managing Longevity Risk and Variable Income Streams

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1 week ago

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August 7, 2026

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Retirement planning strategies are evolving in 2026 to address increased life expectancies, shifting dynamic market conditions, and the transition away from traditional defined-benefit pensions. Individual investors and financial advisors are abandoning rigid retirement models in favor of flexible, multi-asset strategies designed to mitigate longevity risk and preserve purchasing power over multi-decade retirement horizons.

Mitigating Longevity Risk with Dynamic Asset Allocation
As average life expectancies extend past eighty-five years, one of the primary financial risks facing retirees is outliving their accumulated wealth. Traditional fixed income allocations—such as the standard 60/40 equity-to-bond portfolio—are being reevaluated to ensure portfolios generate sufficient capital growth alongside reliable income.

Financial planners recommend maintaining a meaningful equity allocation throughout retirement to offset long-term inflation erosion. High-dividend equity funds, global real estate investment trusts (REITs), and inflation-indexed Treasuries are combined to create diversified portfolios that deliver both growth and income stability.

The Transition to Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies
The classic “4% safe withdrawal rule” is increasingly replaced by dynamic withdrawal strategies that adapt annually based on market performance. Under a dynamic withdrawal framework, retirees adjust their annual distribution rates within pre-set caps and floors:
– Market Upside: During strong market returns, retirees can increase discretionary spending or fund family legacy gifts.
– Market Downturns: During market pullbacks, spending distributions are temporarily reduced to prevent sequence-of-returns risk and preserve core investment principal.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Options and Deferred Annuities
To establish a guaranteed baseline for essential living expenses, individuals are incorporating modern fixed-indexed and deferred longevity annuities into their broader retirement architectures. Modern annuity structures offer competitive return caps, transparent fee schedules, and inflation-adjustment options.

By funding essential expenses—such as housing, healthcare, and insurance—with guaranteed income streams from Social Security, pensions, and annuities, retirees can manage discretionary investment portfolios with greater flexibility and lower emotional stress during market volatility.

Actionable Steps for Future Retirees
1. Calculate Baseline Retirement Expenses: Determine fixed living costs and map guaranteed income sources to cover essential expenditures.
2. Adopt Flexible Withdrawal Rules: Implement dynamic spending rules to protect investment principal against market downturns.
3. Incorporate Inflation-Protected Assets: Maintain exposure to dividend-growing equities and inflation-indexed bonds to safeguard long-term purchasing power.

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Building Generational Wealth: Family Governance, Estate Tax Optimization, and Asset Protection

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2 weeks ago

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August 1, 2026

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As the largest intergenerational transfer of wealth in history accelerates, high-net-worth families, entrepreneurs, and individual investors are placing heightened emphasis on comprehensive estate planning, family governance, and asset protection. Preserving capital across generations requires a balanced approach combining tax-efficient legal structures with open family communication and financial literacy education.

Optimizing Estate Tax Exemptions and Trust Structures
With potential modifications to federal estate tax exemption thresholds on the horizon, proactive estate planning is essential for high-net-worth households. Estate planning attorneys and wealth advisors are establishing multi-generational trust structures to transfer wealth efficiently while minimizing estate and gift tax exposure.

Popular structural strategies include:
– Irrevocable Life Insurance Trusts (ILITs): Utilizing life insurance proceeds to provide liquidity for estate tax obligations without expanding the taxable estate.
– Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts (GRATs): Transferring rapidly appreciating assets to beneficiaries with minimal gift tax consequences.
– Dynasty Trusts: Preserving wealth across multiple generations while providing long-term asset protection from creditor claims and legal liabilities.

Establishing Family Governance and Financial Education
Legal and financial structures alone cannot guarantee long-term wealth preservation without effective family governance. Financial advisors report that a significant percentage of multi-generational wealth dissipation stems from lack of communication and inadequate financial preparation among heir generations.

Families are establishing formal family governance frameworks, including periodic family meetings, written mission statements, and structured philanthropic foundations. Involving younger family members in charitable grant-making and investment discussions fosters financial stewardship and prepares heirs to manage family assets responsibly.

Digital Asset Custody and Legacy Planning
In today’s modern economy, estate planning must extend beyond physical real estate and traditional brokerage accounts to encompass digital assets. Comprehensive estate plans now include detailed inventories and legal access protocols for corporate domain names, intellectual property, digital media rights, and cryptocurrency holdings.

Fiduciaries and estate executors should be provided with secure, encrypted access mechanisms and clear legal authority to manage and transfer digital holdings in accordance with the owner’s estate directions.

Practical Steps for Legacy Planning
1. Review and Update Estate Documents: Ensure wills, revocable trusts, and power-of-attorney designations accurately reflect current family structures.
2. Establish Structured Trusts: Utilize irrevocable trusts to protect assets from creditors and minimize future estate tax liabilities.
3. Create a Digital Estate Inventory: Document access protocols and legal permissions for all online accounts, intellectual property, and digital assets.

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