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Switzerland becomes first major economy to cut interest rates in surprise move

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The Swiss national flag hangs from the Federal Palace, Switzerland’s parliament building, in Bern, Switzerland, on Thursday, Dec. 13, 2018. The Swiss National Bank cut its inflation forecast and showed no inclination of moving off its crisis-era settings, citing the francs strength and mounting global risks. Photographer: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg via Getty Images

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The Swiss National Bank on Thursday surprised the market with a decision to lower its main policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%, saying national inflation is likely to stay below 2% for the foreseeable future.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the Swiss central bank to hold rates at 1.75%.

“For some months now, inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability. According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years,” the bank said. Swiss inflation continued to fall in February, hitting 1.2%.

The SNB also reduced its annual inflation forecasts. The bank now sees average inflation reaching 1.4% in 2024, down from its 1.9% estimate in December, and 1.2% for 2025, trimmed from the previous 1.6% estimate. Its first forecast for 2026 puts average inflation at 1.1% over the period.

Following the announcement, analysts at Capital Economics said they expect two more SNB rate cuts over the course of this year, “with the Bank sounding more dovish and inflation likely to undershoot its forecasts.”

“We think inflation will come in even lower than the new SNB forecasts imply and remain around the current level of 1.2% before falling to below 1.0% next year. Accordingly, we forecast the SNB to cut rates at the September and December meetings taking the policy rate to 1%, where we think it will remain throughout 2025 and 2026,” Capital Economics analysts said in a note.

The September meeting is likely to be the last under the stewardship of SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, who will step down at the end of that month after 12 years at the helm.

The SNB said Swiss economic growth is “likely to remain modest in the coming quarters,” with the GDP poised to expand by roughly 1% this year.

“Our forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty. The main risk is weaker economic activity abroad. Momentum on the mortgage and real estate markets has weakened noticeably in recent quarters,” the SNB said. “However, the vulnerabilities in these markets remain.”

On a macro level, the SNB flagged “moderate” global economic growth in the coming quarters, along with likely falls in inflation partly thanks to restrictive monetary policy strategies. It nevertheless acknowledged “significant risks” and geopolitical tensions that could cloud the international economic horizon.

SNB's Jordan: Inflation forecast has given bank the breathing room to lower rates

In a TV interview with CNBC’s Silvia Amaro, Jordan said that the improved inflation forecast has given the bank the breathing room to lower rates, but refused to be drawn on the inevitability of three cuts this year.

“We will see in June whether the situation is different, whether inflationary pressure continues to decline, then we’ll make a new decision in June,” he said, acknowledging that the bank remains ready to intercede in the foreign exchange market “if necessary” to defend the Swiss franc. High interest rates typically prop up currencies and weaken the relative value of other coins against them.

“We said very clearly that we remain … available to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if necessary. So we can use this instrument in order to make sure that monetary conditions remain appropriate,” Jordan noted.

He fell short of commenting on whether other central banks will take a page from the SNB’s trailblazing book and loosen their monetary policy, but signaled no concerns over the potential impact their moves may have on the Swiss currency.

“We will profit from a situation where we have price stability globally. Of course, it could have an impact on interest rate differentials, but I think a situation where the price stability is re-established everywhere, this is something that is positive for the global economy, and so also for Switzerland,” he said.

First to blink

Switzerland is the first advanced economy to cut interest rates following a prolonged period of high inflationary pressures, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on global trade and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Switzerland was also affected by jitters in the banking space last year, when the government stepped in to facilitate UBS’ takeover of fallen rival Credit Suisse.

Jordan on Thursday stressed to CNBC the importance of liquidity to the Swiss banking sector.

“A key message from us is always that they have to prepare their collateral, so that this collateral … in case they need additional liquidity,” he said.

Asked whether Swiss lenders are doing enough in this direction, Jordan said there were “very good discussions in Switzerland at the moment” between banks and the SNB.

“The situation of March last year and also in the United States made it very clear also to smaller banks that liquidity issues could be a problem,” he said. “I think we are on the good way in order to make sure that sufficient collateral will be available in an emergency case … but it’s very important that we continue to go in that direction.”

The Swiss National Bank’s rate announcement emerged just before Norway’s central bank refused to blink, holding rates steady at 4.5%

“The rate path we’re presenting today indicates… an autumn rate cut, most likely in September,” Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache told a press conference on Thursday, according to Reuters.

We expect to hold rates until autumn, Norway central bank chief says

Later in the session, the Bank of England also left its rates unchanged at 5.25%.

It comes after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday held rates steady following its March meeting and reiterated its expectations for three rate cuts in 2024. The European Central Bank has also been keeping policy unchanged, with officials signaling policymakers will consider a rate cut in June — but flagging that the decision remains highly data-reliant.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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