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Switzerland slashes GDP forecast as Trump’s tariffs weigh on economy

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Untere Schleuse wooden bridge in Thun, Switzerland.

Education Images | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Switzerland’s government on Thursday cut its 2026 economic forecast for the country, citing the Trump administration’s punitive tariffs as a “heavy burden” on its industries.

Officials held their forecast for the Swiss economy to expand by 1.3% this year, but noted that this level of economic growth was “significantly below-average” for the country. For next year, they are now forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow to 0.9% – down from a previous 2026 forecast of 1.2% growth.

“Higher U.S. tariffs have further clouded the outlook for the Swiss economy,” officials said in a news release on Thursday.

Switzerland is an export-driven economy, and the U.S. was the top foreign destination for its goods in 2024. Back in August, Switzerland was hit with 39% tariffs on goods sent to the U.S. after a Swiss delegation failed to secure a deal with U.S. officials — one of the highest country-specific rates imposed by the Trump administration.

The country’s biggest exports include watches, pharmaceuticals and precious metals — but the country is also renowned for its luxury goods, chocolate and skincare products. Branded and patented pharma products are newly subject to 100% tariffs upon entry to the U.S., unless their manufacturers have or are building production facilities in America.

Bern Skyline taken from the Rosengarten at sunrise in Switzerland. 

Church centre: Nydeggkirche
Cathedral right: Berner Münster
Bridge left: Nydeggbrücke

Switzerland is in a uniquely difficult position when it comes to tariffs. Here’s why

Swiss officials said in Thursday’s update that under current trade conditions, global demand for Swiss goods and services is expected to rise “only modestly” in the coming quarters.

“The current trade policy environment presents particular challenges for Switzerland,” they said. “The additional tariffs are placing a heavy burden on affected sectors and export-oriented companies, with significant ripple effects expected across the broader economy. Moreover, persistent uncertainty is also dampening economic activity.”

The government also warned that most of America’s other trading partners had been granted lower tariff rates, placing Swiss exporters at a competitive disadvantage in the U.S. market. White House trade policy held significant influence over the future trajectory of Switzerland’s economy, they said.

“If Switzerland were to reach an agreement with the U.S. or if international trade policy were to ease, a more favorable development would be expected,” they said. “Overall, however, downside risks currently dominate.”

Beyond Trump’s tariffs, demand for the Swiss franc is also adding to Switzerland’s economic and diplomatic woes, with the currency – typically seen as a safe haven asset in times of broader volatility – gaining more than 12% this year amid lingering uncertainty. The rising franc has created headwinds for the country’s central bank by putting downward pressure on prices as policymakers battle to avoid disinflation and negative interest rates.

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U.S. dollar/Swiss franc

Officials said on Thursday that the Swiss franc was continuing to play a role in Switzerland’s economic challenges – and cautioned that a further strengthening of the franc was possible.

“A deterioration in the international environment cannot be ruled out,” they said, noting that risks related to a market correction, global sovereign debt and the geopolitical landscape persisted.

“Should any of these risks materialize, further upward pressure on the Swiss franc would be expected,” they said.

Risks are mounting

Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist, France and Switzerland at ING, told CNBC on Thursday that “risks for the Swiss economy are mounting.”

“Its exposure to the US market is big, amounting to 4% of GDP,” de Montpellier said in an email. “I estimate a cumulative direct impact of the current increase of US tariffs to 39% on Swiss GDP of about 0.86% in the first two years.”

De Montpellier recently revised her own growth forecast for Switzerland for 2026 down to 0.8% – almost half the growth rate she was forecasting at the beginning of this year.

“I believe that the risk are tilted to the downside and the likelihood of having a quarter of negative growth has strongly increased,” she said. “The Swiss economy, long buoyed by pharmaceutical exports, now faces a period of heightened uncertainty that will lead to a sharp deceleration of activity momentum.”

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) in Bern, Switzerland, on Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024.

Swiss franc’s safe haven status is proving to be a headache for the nation

Melanie Debono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said on Thursday that the new forecasts from the Swiss government were in line with her own.

“A fall in goods exports, as indicated by monthly nominal goods trade figures, coupled with falling investment — in light of the surge in uncertainty and despite [Swiss National Bank] rate cuts, which will ultimately feed through to lower interest rates faced by firms — means we expect the Swiss economy to enter recession in the second half of this year,” she told CNBC via email. “We think Swiss GDP will fall by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in both Q3 and Q4.”

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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