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The $10B battle for Congress: Races to watch

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The battle for control of Congress has topped $10 billion as the two parties vie for outsized influence over taxes, spending and the implementation of the next president’s agenda.

It’s a staggering and potentially historic sum, based on OpenSecrets data, considering that only about a 10th of congressional races are actually competitive. Yet, it outpaces spending on the hard-fought presidential election. 

The whopping figure reflects the colossal stakes. Control of Congress is pivotal to economic policy. The expiration next year of the 2017 tax law puts trillions of dollars in tax provisions in play. The Senate can block the appointment of key financial-industry regulators. Legislative battles are shaping up over prescription drug prices and regulation of the crypto industry, energy, artificial intelligence and social media.

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A runner stands near the U.S. Capitol in Washington.

Oliver Contreras/Bloomberg

Republicans are currently favored to gain the Senate majority based on a favorable map, while minority Democrats have at least an even chance to take control of the House, potentially reversing both chambers and continuing a divided government. Many races remain tight and the outcome may not be known for days after the Nov. 5 election. 

Here are some key races to watch:

The Senate: Montana

Democrats’ hopes in the Senate largely hinge on Montana, where three-term incumbent Jon Tester has trailed Republican Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer, businessman and former Navy Seal. That race is set to break records with about $250 expected to be spent per resident of the sparsely populated state on advertising alone, according to AdImpact data.

Tester, a third-generation farmer, has long relied on his folksy charm and a reputation for delivering resources to his state to overcome its Republican tilt. This year, Democrats hope Tester’s support for abortion rights will help him and other vulnerable candidates hold on.

But former President Donald Trump is expected to win in Montana by double digits, so Tester will need many Montanans to split their ticket between the parties, a practice that has become less common as the electorate has become more polarized. 

Ohio

Even if Tester pulls out a win, Democrats would likely need to win every other tossup race, including Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is trying to defend his seat against car dealer Bernie Moreno. Advertising alone has cost more than $530 million in that race, according to AdImpact.

As in Montana, Trump is expected to win Ohio easily, which could give Moreno a boost despite Brown’s popularity with many White working-class voters who form the former president’s base.

Democrats also need to keep seats in the presidential “Blue Wall” battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — all states where races have tightened — as well as in Arizona and Nevada, where the party’s Senate candidates have held larger leads in polls.

Wild cards

If Tester loses, Democrats would need an upset win somewhere else. That would likely require Colin Allred to defeat Senator Ted Cruz in Texas or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell to beat Senator Rick Scott in Florida. A wild card race in Nebraska, where independent union leader Dan Osborn has been running neck-and-neck with incumbent Republican Deb Fischer, could also scramble the outcome on election night.

Democrats’ best-case scenario is likely a 50-50 Senate, with control of the chamber depending on the outcome of the presidential race, because the vice president breaks ties.

Republicans, however, could win as many as 55 seats if they sweep the tossup races. A larger majority would widen the aperture for GOP tax cuts and other legislation if they control both chambers of Congress and the White House. In 2017, the party’s thin majority led to the defeat of efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act via a thumb down from then-Senator John McCain. 

The GOP has hoped that popular former Governor Larry Hogan would pull off an against-the-grain win in heavily Democratic Maryland, but Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks has had double-digit leads in recent polls despite significant super political action committee spending on Hogan’s behalf, including $10 million from billionaire Ken Griffin.

The House: New York and California

Democrats’ chances are significantly better in the House, where Republicans now hold only a slim majority and must defend many areas won by President Joe Biden in 2020, including in heavily Democratic states like New York and California. The party needs a net gain of just four seats to hand the speaker’s gavel to Hakeem Jeffries of New York, and with it the power over the federal purse and House investigative subpoenas.

In addition to 10 New York and California seats in play, Democrats have targeted Heartland districts in Nebraska and Iowa now held by Republicans, as well as battlegrounds in New Jersey and Arizona.A Des Moines Register poll published Sunday showed Democratic challengers in Iowa leading incumbent Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks by 16 percentage points and incumbent Republican Representative Zach Nunn by 7 points among likely voters. The poll showed a surge for Democrats among women and disproportionate enthusiasm among them for voting in a state that imposed a ban on abortions after about six weeks with limited exceptions.In Louisiana, a newly reconfigured, majority-Black district favors a Democrat succeeding GOP Representative Garret Graves, who decided not to seek reelection. In Alabama, another redrawn district, similarly designed to give Black voters more voting representation, could bring another seat shift toward Democrats.

Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana — who unexpectedly ascended to the job late last year after the tumultuous ouster of his predecessor — is scrambling to save his gavel. He has aggressively stumped and raised money nationwide, including a string of events in key New York districts that helped the GOP flip the House two years ago.

Republicans have sought to capitalize on voter discontent on issues like inflation and immigration, targeting open-race seats of retiring Democrats in Michigan, and incumbents in states including New Mexico and Pennsylvania as well as those in districts won by Trump in 2020, like Jared Golden in Maine and Mary Peltola in Alaska.

The first results on election night could come from Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. New York time, with each party having a pickup opportunity. Republicans hope to take the central Virginia seat being vacated by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor next year, while Democrats try to defeat incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans in a coastal district.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 208 seats as leaning, likely or solidly Republican compared to 205 for the Democrats, with 22 tossup seats; 218 are needed to ensure a majority.

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Accounting

New IRS regs put some partnership transactions under spotlight

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Final regulations now identify certain partnership related-party “basis shifting” transactions as “transactions of interest” subject to the rules for reportable transactions.

The final regs apply to related partners and partnerships that participated in the identified transactions through distributions of partnership property or the transfer of an interest in the partnership by a related partner to a related transferee. Affected taxpayers and their material advisors are subject to the disclosure requirements for reportable transactions. 

During the proposal process, the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service received comments that the final regulations should avoid unnecessary burdens for small, family-run businesses, limit retroactive reporting, provide more time for reporting and differentiate publicly traded partnerships, among other suggested changes now reflected in the regs.

  • Increased dollar threshold for basis increase in a TOI. The threshold amount for a basis increase in a TOI has been increased from $5 million to $25 million for tax years before 2025 and $10 million for tax years after. 
  • Limited retroactive reporting for open tax years. Reporting has been limited for open tax years to those that fall within a six-year lookback window. The six-year lookback is the 72-month period before the first month of a taxpayer’s most recent tax year that began before the publication of the final regulations (slated for Jan. 14 in the Federal Register). Also, the threshold amount for a basis increase in a TOI during the six-year lookback is $25 million. 
  • Additional time for reporting. Taxpayers have an additional 90 days from the final regulation’s publication to file disclosure statements for TOIs in open tax years for which a return has already been filed and that fall within the six-year lookback. Material advisors have an additional 90 days to file their disclosure statements for tax statements made before the final regulations. 
  • Publicly traded partnerships. Because PTPs are typically owned by a large number of unrelated owners, the final regulations exclude many owners of PTPs from the disclosure rules. 

The identified transactions generally result from either a tax-free distribution of partnership property to a partner that is related to one or more partners of the partnership, or the tax-free transfer of a partnership interest by a related partner to a related transferee.

IRS headquarters

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The tax-free distribution or transfer generates an increase to the basis of the distributed property or partnership property of $10 million or more ($25 million or more in the case of a TOI undertaken in a tax year before 2025) under the rules of IRC Sections 732(b) or (d), 734(b) or 743(b), but for which no corresponding tax is paid. 

The basis increase to the distributed or partnership property allows the related parties to decrease taxable income through increased cost recovery allowances or decrease taxable gain (or increase taxable loss) on the disposition of the property.

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Treasury, IRS propose rules on commercial clean vehicles, issue guidance on clean fuels

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The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service proposed new rules for the tax credit for qualified commercial clean vehicles, along with guidance on claiming tax credits for clean fuel under the Inflation Reduction Act.

The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on the credit for qualified commercial clean vehicles (under Section 45W of the Tax Code) says the credit can be claimed by purchasing and placing in service qualified commercial clean vehicles, including certain battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid EVs, fuel cell electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid fuel cell electric vehicles.  

The credit is the lesser amount of either 30% of the vehicle’s basis (15% for plug-in hybrid EVs) or the vehicle’s incremental cost in excess of a vehicle comparable in size or use powered solely by gasoline or diesel. A credit up to $7,500 can be claimed for a single qualified commercial clean vehicle for cars and light-duty trucks (with a Gross Vehicle Weight Rating of less than 14,000 pounds), or otherwise $40,000 for vehicles like electric buses and semi-trucks (with a GVWR equal to or greater than 14,000 pounds).

“The release of Treasury’s proposed rules for the commercial clean vehicle credit marks an important step forward in the Biden-Harris Administration’s work to lower transportation costs and strengthen U.S. energy security,” said U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo in a statement Friday. “Today’s guidance will provide the clarity and certainty needed to grow investment in clean vehicle manufacturing.”

The NPRM issued today proposes rules to implement the 45W credit, including proposing various pathways for taxpayers to determine the incremental cost of a qualifying commercial clean vehicle for purposes of calculating the amount of 45W credit. For example, the NPRM proposes that taxpayers can continue to use the incremental cost safe harbors such as those set out in Notice 2023-9 and Notice 2024-5, may rely on a manufacturer’s written cost determination to determine the incremental cost of a qualifying commercial clean vehicle, or may calculate the incremental cost of a qualifying clean vehicle versus an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle based on the differing costs of the vehicle powertrains.

The NPRM also proposes rules regarding the types of vehicles that qualify for the credit and aligns certain definitional concepts with those applicable to the 30D and 25E credits. In addition, the NPRM proposes that vehicles are only eligible if they are used 100% for trade or business, excepting de minimis personal use, and that the 45W credit is disallowed for qualified commercial clean vehicles that were previously allowed a clean vehicle credit under 30D or 45W. 

The notice asks for comments over the next 60 days on the proposed regulations such as issues related to off-road mobile machinery, including approaches that might be adopted in applying the definition of mobile machinery to off-road vehicles and whether to create a product identification number system for such machinery in order to comply with statutory requirements. A public hearing is scheduled for April 28, 2025.

Clean Fuels Production Credit

The Treasury the IRS also released guidance Friday on the Clean Fuels Production Credit under Section 45Z of the Tax Code.

Section 45Z provides a tax credit for the production of transportation fuels with lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions below certain levels. The credit is in effect in 2025 and is for sustainable aviation fuel and non-SAF transportation fuels.

The guidance includes both a notice of intent to propose regulations on the Section 45Z credit and a notice providing the annual emissions rate table for Section 45Z, which refers taxpayers to the appropriate methodologies for determining the lifecycle GHG emissions of their fuel. In conjunction with the guidance released Friday, the Department of Energy plans to release the 45ZCF-GREET model for use in determining emissions rates for 45Z in the coming days.

“This guidance will help put America on the cutting-edge of future innovation in aviation and renewable fuel while also lowering transportation costs for consumers,” said Adeyemo in a statement. “Decarbonizing transportation and lowering costs is a win-win for America.”

Section 45Z provides a per-gallon (or gallon-equivalent) tax credit for producers of clean transportation fuels based on the carbon intensity of production. It consolidates and replaces pre-Inflation Reduction Act credits for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and alternative fuels, and an IRA credit for sustainable aviation fuel. Like several other IRA credits, Section 45Z requires the Treasury to establish rules for measuring carbon intensity of production, based on the Clean Air Act’s definition of “lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.”

The guidance offers more clarity on various issues, including which entities and fuels are eligible for the credit, and how taxpayers determine lifecycle emissions. Specifically, the guidance outlines the Treasury and the IRS’s intent to define key concepts and provide certain rules in a future rulemaking, including clarifying who is eligible for a credit.

The Treasury and the IRS intend to provide that the producer of the eligible clean fuel is eligible to claim the 45Z credit. In keeping with the statute, compressors and blenders of fuel would not be eligible.

Under Section 45Z, a fuel must be “suitable for use” as a transportation fuel. The Treasury and the IRS intend to propose that 45Z-creditable transportation fuel must itself (or when blended into a fuel mixture) have either practical or commercial fitness for use as a fuel in a highway vehicle or aircraft. The guidance clarifies that marine fuels that are otherwise suitable for use in highway vehicles or aircraft, such as marine diesel and methanol, are also 45Z eligible.

Specifically, this would mean that neat SAF that is blended into a fuel mixture that has practical or commercial fitness for use as a fuel would be creditable. Additionally, natural gas alternatives such as renewable natural gas would be suitable for use if produced in a manner such that if it were further compressed it could be used as a transportation fuel.

Today’s guidance publishes the annual emissions rate table that directs taxpayers to the appropriate methodologies for calculating carbon intensities for types and categories of 45Z-eligible fuels.

The table directs taxpayers to use the 45ZCF-GREET model to determine the emissions rate of non-SAF transportation fuel, and either the 45ZCF-GREET model or methodologies from the International Civil Aviation Organization (“CORSIA Default” or “CORSIA Actual”) for SAF.

Taxpayers can use the Provisional Emissions Rate process to obtain an emissions rate for fuel pathway and feedstock combinations not specified in the emissions rate table when guidance is published for the PER process. Guidance for the PER process is expected at a later date.

Outlining climate smart agriculture practices

The guidance released Friday states that the Treasury intends to propose rules for incorporating the emissions benefits from climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices for cultivating domestic corn, soybeans, and sorghum as feedstocks for SAF and non-SAF transportation fuels. These options would be available to taxpayers after Treasury and the IRS propose regulations for the section 45Z credit, including rules for CSA, and the 45ZCF-GREET model is updated to enable calculation of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions rates for CSA crops, taking into account one or more CSA practices.    

CSA practices have multiple benefits, including lower overall GHG emissions associated with biofuels production and increased adoption of farming practices that are associated with other environmental benefits, such as improved water quality and soil health. Agencies across the Federal government have taken important steps to advance the adoption of CSA. In April, Treasury established a first-of-its-kind pilot program to encourage CSA practices within guidance on the section 40B SAF tax credit. Treasury has received and continues to consider substantial feedback from stakeholders on that pilot program. The U.S. Department of Agriculture invested more than $3 billion in 135 Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities projects. Combined with the historic investment of $19.5 billion in CSA from the Inflation Reduction Act, the department is estimated to support CSA implementation on over 225 million acres in the next 5 years as well as measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification to better understand the climate impacts of these practices.

In addition, in June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture published a Request for Information requesting public input on procedures for reporting and verification of CSA practices and measurement of related emissions benefits, and received substantial input from a wide array of stakeholders. The USDA is currently developing voluntary technical guidelines for CSA reporting and verification. The Treasury and the IRS expect to consider those guidelines in proposing rules recognizing the benefits of CSA for purposes of the Section 45Z credit.

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IRS and Treasury propose regs on 401(k) and 403(b) automatic enrollment, Roth IRA catchup contributions

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The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service issued proposed regulations Friday for several provisions of the SECURE 2.0 Act, including ones related to automatic enrollment in 401(k) and 403(b) plans, and the Roth IRA catchup rule.

SECURE 2.0 Act passed at the end of 2022 and contained an extensive list of provisions related to retirement planning, like the original SECURE Act of 2019, with some being phased in over five years.

One set of proposed regulations involves provisions requiring newly-created 401(k) and 403(b) plans to automatically enroll eligible employees starting with the 2025 plan year. In general, unless an employee opts out, a plan needs to automatically enroll the employee at an initial contribution rate of at least 3% of the employee’s pay and automatically increase the initial contribution rate by one percentage point each year until it reaches at least 10% of pay. The requirement generally applies to 401(k) and 403(b) plans established after Dec. 29, 2022, the date the SECURE 2.0 Act became law, with exceptions for new and small businesses, church plans and governmental plans.

The proposed regulations include guidance to plan administrators for properly implementing this requirement and are proposed to apply to plan years that start more than six months after the date that final regulations are issued. Before the final regulations are applicable, plan administrators need to apply a reasonable, good faith interpretation of the statute.

Roth IRA catchup contributions

The Treasury and the IRS also issued proposed regulations Friday addressing several SECURE 2.0 Act provisions involving catch-up contributions, which are additional contributions under a 401(k) or similar workplace retirement plan that generally are allowed with respect to employees who are age 50 or older.

That includes proposed rules related to a provision requiring that catch-up contributions made by certain higher-income participants be designated as after-tax Roth contributions.

The proposed regulations provide guidance for plan administrators to implement and comply with the new Roth catch-up rule and reflect comments received in response to Notice 2023-62, issued in August 2023. 

The proposed regulations also provide guidance relating to the increased catch-up contribution limit under the SECURE 2.0 Act for certain retirement plan participants. Affected participants include employees between the ages of 60-63 and employees in newly established SIMPLE plans.

The IRS and the Treasury are asking for comments on both sets of proposed regulations. 

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