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The $10B battle for Congress: Races to watch

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The battle for control of Congress has topped $10 billion as the two parties vie for outsized influence over taxes, spending and the implementation of the next president’s agenda.

It’s a staggering and potentially historic sum, based on OpenSecrets data, considering that only about a 10th of congressional races are actually competitive. Yet, it outpaces spending on the hard-fought presidential election. 

The whopping figure reflects the colossal stakes. Control of Congress is pivotal to economic policy. The expiration next year of the 2017 tax law puts trillions of dollars in tax provisions in play. The Senate can block the appointment of key financial-industry regulators. Legislative battles are shaping up over prescription drug prices and regulation of the crypto industry, energy, artificial intelligence and social media.

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A runner stands near the U.S. Capitol in Washington.

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Republicans are currently favored to gain the Senate majority based on a favorable map, while minority Democrats have at least an even chance to take control of the House, potentially reversing both chambers and continuing a divided government. Many races remain tight and the outcome may not be known for days after the Nov. 5 election. 

Here are some key races to watch:

The Senate: Montana

Democrats’ hopes in the Senate largely hinge on Montana, where three-term incumbent Jon Tester has trailed Republican Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer, businessman and former Navy Seal. That race is set to break records with about $250 expected to be spent per resident of the sparsely populated state on advertising alone, according to AdImpact data.

Tester, a third-generation farmer, has long relied on his folksy charm and a reputation for delivering resources to his state to overcome its Republican tilt. This year, Democrats hope Tester’s support for abortion rights will help him and other vulnerable candidates hold on.

But former President Donald Trump is expected to win in Montana by double digits, so Tester will need many Montanans to split their ticket between the parties, a practice that has become less common as the electorate has become more polarized. 

Ohio

Even if Tester pulls out a win, Democrats would likely need to win every other tossup race, including Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is trying to defend his seat against car dealer Bernie Moreno. Advertising alone has cost more than $530 million in that race, according to AdImpact.

As in Montana, Trump is expected to win Ohio easily, which could give Moreno a boost despite Brown’s popularity with many White working-class voters who form the former president’s base.

Democrats also need to keep seats in the presidential “Blue Wall” battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — all states where races have tightened — as well as in Arizona and Nevada, where the party’s Senate candidates have held larger leads in polls.

Wild cards

If Tester loses, Democrats would need an upset win somewhere else. That would likely require Colin Allred to defeat Senator Ted Cruz in Texas or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell to beat Senator Rick Scott in Florida. A wild card race in Nebraska, where independent union leader Dan Osborn has been running neck-and-neck with incumbent Republican Deb Fischer, could also scramble the outcome on election night.

Democrats’ best-case scenario is likely a 50-50 Senate, with control of the chamber depending on the outcome of the presidential race, because the vice president breaks ties.

Republicans, however, could win as many as 55 seats if they sweep the tossup races. A larger majority would widen the aperture for GOP tax cuts and other legislation if they control both chambers of Congress and the White House. In 2017, the party’s thin majority led to the defeat of efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act via a thumb down from then-Senator John McCain. 

The GOP has hoped that popular former Governor Larry Hogan would pull off an against-the-grain win in heavily Democratic Maryland, but Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks has had double-digit leads in recent polls despite significant super political action committee spending on Hogan’s behalf, including $10 million from billionaire Ken Griffin.

The House: New York and California

Democrats’ chances are significantly better in the House, where Republicans now hold only a slim majority and must defend many areas won by President Joe Biden in 2020, including in heavily Democratic states like New York and California. The party needs a net gain of just four seats to hand the speaker’s gavel to Hakeem Jeffries of New York, and with it the power over the federal purse and House investigative subpoenas.

In addition to 10 New York and California seats in play, Democrats have targeted Heartland districts in Nebraska and Iowa now held by Republicans, as well as battlegrounds in New Jersey and Arizona.A Des Moines Register poll published Sunday showed Democratic challengers in Iowa leading incumbent Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks by 16 percentage points and incumbent Republican Representative Zach Nunn by 7 points among likely voters. The poll showed a surge for Democrats among women and disproportionate enthusiasm among them for voting in a state that imposed a ban on abortions after about six weeks with limited exceptions.In Louisiana, a newly reconfigured, majority-Black district favors a Democrat succeeding GOP Representative Garret Graves, who decided not to seek reelection. In Alabama, another redrawn district, similarly designed to give Black voters more voting representation, could bring another seat shift toward Democrats.

Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana — who unexpectedly ascended to the job late last year after the tumultuous ouster of his predecessor — is scrambling to save his gavel. He has aggressively stumped and raised money nationwide, including a string of events in key New York districts that helped the GOP flip the House two years ago.

Republicans have sought to capitalize on voter discontent on issues like inflation and immigration, targeting open-race seats of retiring Democrats in Michigan, and incumbents in states including New Mexico and Pennsylvania as well as those in districts won by Trump in 2020, like Jared Golden in Maine and Mary Peltola in Alaska.

The first results on election night could come from Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. New York time, with each party having a pickup opportunity. Republicans hope to take the central Virginia seat being vacated by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor next year, while Democrats try to defeat incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans in a coastal district.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 208 seats as leaning, likely or solidly Republican compared to 205 for the Democrats, with 22 tossup seats; 218 are needed to ensure a majority.

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Accounting

Major tax legislation set to move on Capitol Hill

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The “big beautiful bill” touted by President Trump is getting closer, though the timeline remains imprecise. 

“There’s been some public reporting on tougher questions of spending cuts, but the difference between the tax bill this year and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017 is that the inclusion of a lot of spending cuts in the same bill makes it more challenging this year. From the bill itself several categories are apparent,” said Stephen Eckert, a partner in the National Tax Office of Top 25 Firm Plante Moran. “There’s the extension of the TCJA extension, campaign promises, and a catch-all category. In some ways we would expect an extension of the vast majority of TCJA provisions, plus the campaign promises as well as potentially all the other things that get thrown in that we didn’t expect.”

“For example, S.711, the Transportation Freedom Act, sponsored by [Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio], which would give a 200% deduction for wages paid to auto workers. There is a broader category of things that could be coming to support certain industries,” he continued. 

U.S. Capitol

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One looming question regarding campaign promises is the potential modification of the Inflation Reduction Act and green energy incentives, Ecker noted: “There has been opposition to certain changes there from Republicans — we’re watching to see what happens to the fate of energy efficient credits and incentives and to what extent they are modified under the bill.”

The House and the Senate are working in parallel, waiting for legislative text, he observed. “The non-tax portions of the bill will be worked on earlier, but until we get the actual text from the House Ways and Means  Committee, there will be questions. For example, there are multiple versions of some of the Trump proposals, such as the proposal to exclude tips and Social Security benefits from income. Each one is a little bit different. We expect changes but it’s unclear what the changes will be.”

Principles or tactics?

For Eckert, the real questions are about where the red lines are for certain members. For example, there have been statements  by some House members that they won’t vote for the bill if it includes a cap on state and local tax deductions. 

But are those actual red lines, or negotiating positions that will be softened? 

“At this point, businesses would just like some degree of certainty going forward,” he said. “Until then, it’s hard to engage in longer term planning. Hopefully, the bill will advance relatively soon so businesses will know what will be the law for the next couple of years and have a chance to plan for the future.”

The House and Senate are both actively working on their versions, and they are constantly interacting with each other, according to Miklos Ringbauer, founder of MiklosCPA in Southern California. “So instead of having A and B and then trying to figure out what they can create out of it, they are now jointly working on it, so it has a greater chance of passing across the board,” he explained.

However, there’s a bit of a gap in the size of the budget cuts in each bill, with the Senate version pegged at less of a cut than the House. And some want to double the SALT limitation, while some would prefer to see it go away altogether. 

“Likewise,the estate tax exemption,” he continued. “There are some that would like to see the entire estate qualify as exempt from tax. Those are some of the ideas floating around, but until it’s voted on by both chambers and the president signs it, there’s no law. Everything can change until the very last minute.”

Ringbauer noted that the TCJA required technical corrections and extensive guidance when it was passed in 2017, and he anticipates the same with this year’s bill: “There’s a very short overall window because the 2017 laws are expiring at the end of this year. Between May and December we have just a few months.”

“It looks like everyone is on board with expanding the availability of the Child Tax Credit on the individual side. It helped a lot of families at that time. It helped a number of families to get out of poverty,” he noted.

The reenactment of 100% bonus depreciation and the opportunity to fully expense R&D will be boons to business if they are, as expected, part of the legislation.

“It’s an exciting year for tax accountants; we are seeing a huge transformation of tax laws all over again,” Ringbauer said. “What could happen is, they simply reenact every part of the 2017 tax law legislation, or they could figure out what really worked and what didn’t work, and start adjusting some things and letting other ones expire.”

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Accounting

IESBA offers Q&A on tax planning ethical standards

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The International Ethics Standards Board for Accountants staff posted a questions and answers publication Thursday to support the adoption and implementation of its IESBA Tax Planning and Related Services Standards

The standards offer a principles-based framework and a global ethical benchmark to guide accountants in public practice and in business when they’re doing tax planning.

The Q&A publication highlights, illustrates and explains various aspects of the standards to help firms, jurisdictional standard-setters and accounting organizations adopt and implement the standards, and individual accountants apply them. The publication can also help tax authorities, the corporate governance community, investors, business preparers, educational bodies or institutions, and other stakeholders understand the standards.

The Tax Planning and Related Services standards take effect July 1, 2025.

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Accounting

Firms: PMS’s, tech infrastructure, need upgrades

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Tech-forward CPA firms–including those listed in this year’s Best Firms for Technology–reported a variety of areas in need of a tech upgrade, and are planning major investments over the next year to address at least some of these pain points. 

One of the most commonly mentioned areas were firm practice management systems. 

Some, like California-based Navolio and Tallman, wanted better reporting options than were currently on offer from their practice management systems. New Jersey-based Wilken Gutenplan, meanwhile, said they needed practice management software with better billing and reporting features. And others, like top 25 firm Citrin Cooperman, wanted better solutions for internal administrative tasks. Meanwhile, top 100 firm Prager Metis, wanted better workflow and integrations. 

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“[We plan to] focus on improving inward facing practice management workflows that seamlessly provide connectivity between different vendor applications. Effectively automation from client intake to delivering the service,” said chief information officer Gurjit Singh. 

However, such upgrades are not always easy, and in fact can present a major challenge for firms such as Iowa-based Community CPA and Associates. 

“Our biggest technology challenge continues to be managing technical debt and navigating the limitations of our legacy systems—particularly the lack of interoperability and scalability in key platforms like our practice management system (PMS). This system handles many interconnected functions—client tracking, engagement and project management, time entry, billing, and collections—but its tightly integrated design makes it difficult to enhance any one area without impacting others. While we’ve made progress with some integrations and automations, we’re still working to develop and migrate these functions to more robust modern platforms that allow for greater scalability,” said CEO Ying Sa. 

Firms also reported a need to update and improve their technology infrastructure. Top 25 firm Armanino, for instance, was expanding its cloud footprint even further, with the firm wanting to move its remaining on-premise dependencies into native cloud solutions. Illinois-based Mowery and Schoenfeld, similarly, pointed to their server infrastructure as an area that needs updating. 

For others, though, the question of infrastructure was less about hardware and more about software. In particular, while firms have already made upgrades and improvements to their tech stack, getting these programs to talk to each other seems to be a consistent challenge across firms, one that firms such top 50 firm LBMC said they were eager to address in both their client-facing and back-office technology solutions. 

“Our firm’s biggest technology challenge is the ongoing effort to integrate various service-specific applications so they can work seamlessly together. This integration is crucial for enhancing collaboration and efficiency across different service lines,” said CEO Jim Meade. 

But while these were the more common answers, there were many other areas that firms said could stand some improvement. Some, such as the Florida-based Network Firm, were looking to upgrade core service solutions like audit, tax or data analytics software. Others named process efficiency as a priority, such as top 25 firm Cherry Bekaert who named automation readiness/standardization for certain practices as an area due for an upgrade, or top 50 firm UHY who said they were working to streamline the engagement life cycle. 

And of course there were those, such as top 25 firm Eisner Amper, that wanted to boost their AI capacities. 

“Our focus for technology capability additions are in Generative AI where it can help us work smarter and faster—across both client-facing services and internal operations,” said chief technology officer Sanjay Desai. 

AI, automation and infrastructure

These pain points have served to inform these firms’ plans for technology investments over the next year. While firms, just like before, provided a wide variety of plans and priorities, most seemed focused on improved efficiency and insights through automation and AI. 

However, when it came to AI tools at least, most declined to provide specifics beyond their overall intentions to invest in them. Though, they did say they were hoping to use these solutions to speed up workflows in client-facing service areas like tax or audit, or to acquire tools that would let them create or modify their own AIs. 

More expansive visions came when discussing the kinds of hardware purchases that would support these aforementioned AI tools. California-based Navolio and Tallman, for example, elaborated on its plans to purchase new laptops specifically optimized for AI applications. 

“We’re planning to invest in a new generation of laptops that come with Copilot-enabled Neural Processing Units (NPUs). These laptops are designed to accelerate AI-powered tasks, and we see them as an investment that keeps our firm aligned with the future of the tech industry. The laptops will have improved internal specs for multitasking and include touchscreen functionality to make day-to-day usage more intuitive,” said IT partner Stephanie Ringrose. Other firms also made mention of new laptops optimized for AI, including Armanino, which added that it is also considering pairing them with hardwire and storage for internal AI production. 

Beyond hardware, firms like Community CPA and Associates also said they were planning investments in their software infrastructure as well. 

“We plan to begin transitioning to a new ERP and CRM platform as well as explore agentic AI tools for saving time in our accounting services workflows for our clients. We also intend to purchase replacement hardware for routine replacement of equipment that has reached the end of their lifecycle,” said Sa. Cherry Bekaert also said they were looking into new ERPs. 

Other planned investments include virtual servers and desktops, API access for SaaS applications, resource scheduling and pricing solutions, data management and governance tools, cybersecurity solutions, and internal communications software. 

However, some firms, such as the Network Firm, are not planning to purchase new solutions but to make them in-house, and more are planning to buy some and make others, such as Cherry Bekaert, who said they were building a custom intelligent automation platform. Assurance partner Jonathan Kraftchick said the firm is looking at many different avenues to align their technology investments with business objectives. 

“As our portfolio broadens, it introduces new layers of complexity to our operations, requiring cutting-edge systems that deliver actionable insights, enhance decision-making, and streamline internal processes. This challenge propels us to implement diverse technology solutions, meticulously tailored to meet the evolving demands of our expanding portfolio and ensure the seamless integration of new acquisitions,” he said. 

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