The battle for control of Congress has topped $10 billion as the two parties vie for outsized influence over taxes, spending and the implementation of the next president’s agenda.
It’s a staggering and potentially historic sum, based on OpenSecrets data, considering that only about a 10th of congressional races are actually competitive. Yet, it outpaces spending on the hard-fought presidential election.
The whopping figure reflects the colossal stakes. Control of Congress is pivotal to economic policy. The expiration next year of the 2017 tax law puts trillions of dollars in tax provisions in play. The Senate can block the appointment of key financial-industry regulators. Legislative battles are shaping up over prescription drug prices and regulation of the crypto industry, energy, artificial intelligence and social media.
A runner stands near the U.S. Capitol in Washington.
Oliver Contreras/Bloomberg
Republicans are currently favored to gain the Senate majority based on a favorable map, while minority Democrats have at least an even chance to take control of the House, potentially reversing both chambers and continuing a divided government. Many races remain tight and the outcome may not be known for days after the Nov. 5 election.
Here are some key races to watch:
The Senate: Montana
Democrats’ hopes in the Senate largely hinge on Montana, where three-term incumbent Jon Tester has trailed Republican Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer, businessman and former Navy Seal. That race is set to break records with about $250 expected to be spent per resident of the sparsely populated state on advertising alone, according to AdImpact data.
Tester, a third-generation farmer, has long relied on his folksy charm and a reputation for delivering resources to his state to overcome its Republican tilt. This year, Democrats hope Tester’s support for abortion rights will help him and other vulnerable candidates hold on.
But former President Donald Trump is expected to win in Montana by double digits, so Tester will need many Montanans to split their ticket between the parties, a practice that has become less common as the electorate has become more polarized.
Ohio
Even if Tester pulls out a win, Democrats would likely need to win every other tossup race, including Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is trying to defend his seat against car dealer Bernie Moreno. Advertising alone has cost more than $530 million in that race, according to AdImpact.
As in Montana, Trump is expected to win Ohio easily, which could give Moreno a boost despite Brown’s popularity with many White working-class voters who form the former president’s base.
Democrats also need to keep seats in the presidential “Blue Wall” battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — all states where races have tightened — as well as in Arizona and Nevada, where the party’s Senate candidates have held larger leads in polls.
Wild cards
If Tester loses, Democrats would need an upset win somewhere else. That would likely require Colin Allred to defeat Senator Ted Cruz in Texas or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell to beat Senator Rick Scott in Florida. A wild card race in Nebraska, where independent union leader Dan Osborn has been running neck-and-neck with incumbent Republican Deb Fischer, could also scramble the outcome on election night.
Democrats’ best-case scenario is likely a 50-50 Senate, with control of the chamber depending on the outcome of the presidential race, because the vice president breaks ties.
Republicans, however, could win as many as 55 seats if they sweep the tossup races. A larger majority would widen the aperture for GOP tax cuts and other legislation if they control both chambers of Congress and the White House. In 2017, the party’s thin majority led to the defeat of efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act via a thumb down from then-Senator John McCain.
The GOP has hoped that popular former Governor Larry Hogan would pull off an against-the-grain win in heavily Democratic Maryland, but Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks has had double-digit leads in recent polls despite significant super political action committee spending on Hogan’s behalf, including $10 million from billionaire Ken Griffin.
The House: New York and California
Democrats’ chances are significantly better in the House, where Republicans now hold only a slim majority and must defend many areas won by President Joe Biden in 2020, including in heavily Democratic states like New York and California. The party needs a net gain of just four seats to hand the speaker’s gavel to Hakeem Jeffries of New York, and with it the power over the federal purse and House investigative subpoenas.
In addition to 10 New York and California seats in play, Democrats have targeted Heartland districts in Nebraska and Iowa now held by Republicans, as well as battlegrounds in New Jersey and Arizona.A Des Moines Register poll published Sunday showed Democratic challengers in Iowa leading incumbent Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks by 16 percentage points and incumbent Republican Representative Zach Nunn by 7 points among likely voters. The poll showed a surge for Democrats among women and disproportionate enthusiasm among them for voting in a state that imposed a ban on abortions after about six weeks with limited exceptions.In Louisiana, a newly reconfigured, majority-Black district favors a Democrat succeeding GOP Representative Garret Graves, who decided not to seek reelection. In Alabama, another redrawn district, similarly designed to give Black voters more voting representation, could bring another seat shift toward Democrats.
Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana — who unexpectedly ascended to the job late last year after the tumultuous ouster of his predecessor — is scrambling to save his gavel. He has aggressively stumped and raised money nationwide, including a string of events in key New York districts that helped the GOP flip the House two years ago.
Republicans have sought to capitalize on voter discontent on issues like inflation and immigration, targeting open-race seats of retiring Democrats in Michigan, and incumbents in states including New Mexico and Pennsylvania as well as those in districts won by Trump in 2020, like Jared Golden in Maine and Mary Peltola in Alaska.
The first results on election night could come from Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. New York time, with each party having a pickup opportunity. Republicans hope to take the central Virginia seat being vacated by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor next year, while Democrats try to defeat incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans in a coastal district.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 208 seats as leaning, likely or solidly Republican compared to 205 for the Democrats, with 22 tossup seats; 218 are needed to ensure a majority.
Senate Republicans unveiled a budget blueprint designed to fast-track a renewal of President Donald Trump’s tax cuts and an increase to the nation’s borrowing limit, ahead of a planned vote on the resolution later this week.
The Senate plan will allow for a $4 trillion extension of Trump’s tax cuts and an additional $1.5 trillion in further levy reductions. The House plan called for $4.5 trillion in total cuts.
Republicans say they are assuming that the cost of extending the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts will cost zero dollars.
The draft is a sign that divisions within the Senate GOP over the size and scope of spending cuts to offset tax reductions are closer to being resolved.
Lawmakers, however, have yet to face some of the most difficult decisions, including which spending to cut and which tax reductions to prioritize. That will be negotiated in the coming weeks after both chambers approve identical budget resolutions unlocking the process.
The Senate budget plan would also increase the debt ceiling by up to $5 trillion, compared with the $4 trillion hike in the House plan. Senate Republicans say they want to ensure that Congress does not need to vote on the debt ceiling again before the 2026 midterm elections.
“This budget resolution unlocks the process to permanently extend proven, pro-growth tax policy,” Senate Finance Chairman Mike Crapo, an Idaho Republican, said.
The blueprint is the latest in a multi-step legislative process for Republicans to pass a renewal of Trump’s tax cuts through Congress. The bill will renew the president’s 2017 reductions set to expire at the end of this year, which include lower rates for households and deductions for privately held businesses.
Republicans are also hoping to include additional tax measures to the bill, including raising the state and local tax deduction cap and some of Trump’s campaign pledges to eliminate taxes on certain categories of income, including tips and overtime pay.
The plan would allow for the debt ceiling hike to be vote on separately from the rest of the tax and spending package. That gives lawmakers flexibility to move more quickly on the debt ceiling piece if a federal default looms before lawmakers can agree on the tax package.
Political realities
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Wednesday, after meeting with Trump at the White House to discuss the tax blueprint, that he’s not sure yet if he has the votes to pass the measure.
Thune in a statement said the budget has been blessed by the top Senate ruleskeeper but Democrats said that it is still vulnerable to being challenged later.
The biggest differences in the Senate budget from the competing House plan are in the directives for spending cuts, a reflection of divisions among lawmakers over reductions to benefit programs, including Medicaid and food stamps.
The Senate plan pares back a House measure that calls for at least $2 trillion in spending reductions over a decade, a massive reduction that would likely mean curbing popular entitlement programs.
The Senate GOP budget grants significantly more flexibility. It instructs key committees that oversee entitlement programs to come up with at least $4 billion in cuts. Republicans say they expect the final tax package to contain much larger curbs on spending.
The Senate budget would also allow $150 billion in new spending for the military and $175 billion for border and immigration enforcement.
If the minimum spending cuts are achieved along with the maximum tax cuts, the plan would add $5.8 trillion in new deficits over 10 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The Senate is planning a vote on the plan in the coming days. Then it goes to the House for a vote as soon as next week. There, it could face opposition from spending hawks like South Carolina’s Ralph Norman, who are signaling they want more aggressive cuts.
House Speaker Mike Johnson can likely afford just two or three defections on the budget vote given his slim majority and unified Democratic opposition.
Financial advisors and clients worried about stock volatility and inflation can climb bond ladders to safety — but they won’t find any, if those steps lead to a place with higher taxes.
The choice of asset location for bond ladders in a client portfolio can prove so important that some wealthy customers holding them in a taxable brokerage account may wind up losing money in an inflationary period due to the payments to Uncle Sam, according to a new academic study. And those taxes, due to what the author described as the “dead loss” from the so-called original issue discount compared to the value, come with an extra sting if advisors and clients thought the bond ladder had prepared for the rise in inflation.
Bond ladders — whether they are based on Treasury inflation-protected securities like the strategy described in the study or another fixed-income security — provide small but steady returns tied to the regular cadence of maturities in the debt-based products. However, advisors and their clients need to consider where any interest payments, coupon income or principal accretion from the bond ladders could wind up as ordinary income, said Cal Spranger, a fixed income and wealth manager with Seattle-based Badgley + Phelps Wealth Managers.
“Thats going to be the No. 1 concern about, where is the optimal place to hold them,” Spranger said in an interview. “One of our primary objectives for a bond portfolio is to smooth out that volatility. … We’re trying to reduce risk with the bond portfolio, not increase risks.”
Risk-averse planners, then, could likely predict the conclusion of the working academic paper, which was posted in late February by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus in the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University: Tax-deferred retirement accounts such as a 401(k) or a traditional individual retirement account are usually the best location for a Treasury inflation-protected securities ladder. The appreciation attributes available through an after-tax Roth IRA work better for equities than a bond ladder designed for decumulation, and the potential payments to Uncle Sam in brokerage accounts make them an even worse asset location.
“Few planners will be surprised to learn that locating a TIPS ladder in a taxable account leads to phantom income and excess payment of tax, with a consequent reduction in after-tax real spending power,” McQuarrie writes. “Some may be surprised to learn just how baleful that mistake in account location can be, up to and including negative payouts in the early years for high tax brackets and very high rates of inflation. In the worst cases, more is due in tax than the ladder payout provides. And many will be surprised to learn how rapidly the penalty for choosing the wrong asset location increases at higher rates of inflation — precisely the motivation for setting up a TIPS ladder in the first place. Perhaps the most surprising result of all was the discovery that excess tax payments in the early years are never made up. [Original issue discount] causes a dead loss.”
The Roth account may look like a healthy alternative, since the clients wouldn’t owe any further taxes on distributions from them in retirement. But the bond ladder would defeat the whole purpose of that vehicle, McQuarrie writes.
“Planners should recognize that a Roth account is a peculiarly bad location for a bond ladder, whether real or nominal,” he writes. “Ladders are decumulation tools designed to provide a stream of distributions, which the Roth account does not otherwise require. Locating a bond ladder in the Roth thus forfeits what some consider to be one of the most valuable features of the Roth account. If the bond ladder is the only asset in the Roth, then the Roth itself will have been liquidated as the ladder reaches its end.”
That means that the Treasury inflation-protected securities ladder will add the most value to portfolios in a tax-deferred account (TDA), which McQuarrie acknowledges is not a shocking recommendation to anyone familiar with them. On the other hand, some planners with clients who need to begin required minimum distributions from their traditional IRA may reap further benefits than expected from that location.
“More interesting is the demonstration that the after-tax real income received from a TIPS ladder located in a TDA does not vary with the rate of inflation, in contrast to what happens in a taxable account,” McQuarrie writes. “Also of note was the ability of most TIPS ladders to handle the RMDs due, and, at higher rates of inflation, to shelter other assets from the need to take RMDs.”
The present time of high yields from Treasury inflation-protected securities could represent an ample opportunity to tap into that scenario.
“If TIPS yields are attractive when the ladder is set up, distributions from the ladder will typically satisfy RMDs on the ladder balance throughout the 30 years,” McQuarrie writes. “The higher the inflation experienced, the greater the surplus coverage, allowing other assets in the account to be sheltered in part from RMDs by means of the TIPS ladder payout. However, if TIPS yields are borderline unattractive at ladder set up, and if the ladder proved unnecessary because inflation fell to historically low levels, then there may be a shortfall in RMD coverage in the middle years, requiring either that TIPS bonds be sold prematurely, or that other assets in the TDA be tapped to cover the RMD.”
Other caveats to the strategies revolve around any possible state taxes on withdrawals or any number of client circumstances ruling out a universal recommendation. The main message of McQuarrie’s study serves as a warning against putting the ladder in a taxable brokerage account.
“Unsurprisingly, the higher the client’s tax rate, the worse the outcomes from locating a TIPS ladder in taxable when inflation rages,” he writes. “High-bracket taxpayers who accurately foresee a surge in future inflation, and take steps to defend against it, but who make the mistake of locating their TIPS ladder in taxable, can end up paying more in tax to the government than is received from the TIPS ladder during the first year or two.”
For municipal or other types of tax-exempt bonds, though, a taxable account is “the optimal place,” Spranger said. Convertible Treasury or corporate bonds show more similarity with the Treasury inflation-protected securities in that their ideal location is in a tax-deferred account, he noted.
Regardless, bonds act as a crucial core to a client’s portfolio, tamping down on the risk of volatility and sensitivity to interest rates. And the right ladder strategies yield more reliable future rates of returns for clients than a bond ETF or mutual fund, Spranger said.
“We’re strong proponents of using individual bonds, No. 1 so that we can create bond ladders, but, most importantly, for the certainty that individual bonds provide,” he said.
Loan applicants and mortgage companies often rely on an Internal Revenue Service that’s dramatically downsizing to help facilitate the lending process, but they may be in luck.
That’s because the division responsible for the main form used to allow consumers to authorize the release of income-tax information to lenders is tied to essential IRS operations.
The Income Verification Express Service could be insulated from what NMN affiliate Accounting Today has described of a series of fluctuating IRS cuts because it’s part of the submission processing unit within wage and investment, a division central to the tax bureau’s purpose.
“It’s unlikely that IVES will be impacted due to association within submission processing,” said Curtis Knuth, president and CEO of NCS, a consumer reporting agency. “Processing tax returns and collecting revenue is the core function and purpose of the IRS.”
Knuth is a member of the IVES participant working group, which is comprised of representatives from companies that facilitate processing of 4506-C forms used to request tax transcripts for mortgages. Those involved represent a range of company sizes and business models.
The IRS has planned to slash thousands of jobs and make billions of dollars of cuts that are still in process, some of which have been successfully challenged in court.
While the current cuts might not be a concern for processing the main form of tax transcript requests this time around, there have been past issues with it in other situations like 2019’s lengthy government shutdown.
President Trump recently signed a continuing funding resolution to avert a shutdown. But it will run out later this year, so the issue could re-emerge if there’s an impasse in Congress at that time. Republicans largely dominate Congress but their lead is thinner in the Senate.
The mortgage industry will likely have an additional option it didn’t have in 2019 if another extended deadlock on the budget emerges and impedes processing of the central tax transcript form.
“It absolutely affected closings, because you couldn’t get the transcripts. You couldn’t get anybody on the phone,” said Phil Crescenzo Jr., vice president of National One Mortgage Corp.’s Southeast division.
There is an automated, free way for consumers to release their transcripts that may still operate when there are issues with the 4506-C process, which has a $4 surcharge. However, the alternative to the 4506-C form is less straightforward and objective as it’s done outside of the mortgage process, requiring a separate logon and actions.
Some of the most recent IRS cuts have targeted technology jobs and could have an impact on systems, so it’s also worth noting that another option lenders have sometimes elected to use is to allow loans temporarily move forward when transcript access is interrupted and verified later.
There is a risk to waiting for verification or not getting it directly from the IRS, however, as government-related agencies hold mortgage lenders responsible for the accuracy of borrower income information. That risk could increase if loan performance issues become more prevalent.
Currently, tax transcripts primarily come into play for government-related loans made to contract workers, said Crescenzo.
“That’s the only receipt that you have for a self-employed client’s income to know it’s valid,” he said.
The home affordability crunch and rise of gig work like Uber driving has increased interest in these types of mortgages, he said.
Contract workers can alternatively seek financing from the private non-qualified mortgage market where bank statements could be used to verify self-employment income, but Crescenzo said that has disadvantages related to government-related loans.
“Non QM requires higher downpayments and interest rates than traditional financing,” he said.
In the next couple years, regional demand for loans based on self-employment income could rise given the federal job cuts planned broadly at public agencies, depending on the extent to which court challenges to them go through.
Those potential borrowers will find it difficult to get new mortgages until they can establish more of a track record with their new sources of income, in most cases two years from a tax filing perspective.