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The $10B battle for Congress: Races to watch

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The battle for control of Congress has topped $10 billion as the two parties vie for outsized influence over taxes, spending and the implementation of the next president’s agenda.

It’s a staggering and potentially historic sum, based on OpenSecrets data, considering that only about a 10th of congressional races are actually competitive. Yet, it outpaces spending on the hard-fought presidential election. 

The whopping figure reflects the colossal stakes. Control of Congress is pivotal to economic policy. The expiration next year of the 2017 tax law puts trillions of dollars in tax provisions in play. The Senate can block the appointment of key financial-industry regulators. Legislative battles are shaping up over prescription drug prices and regulation of the crypto industry, energy, artificial intelligence and social media.

capitol-runner.jpg
A runner stands near the U.S. Capitol in Washington.

Oliver Contreras/Bloomberg

Republicans are currently favored to gain the Senate majority based on a favorable map, while minority Democrats have at least an even chance to take control of the House, potentially reversing both chambers and continuing a divided government. Many races remain tight and the outcome may not be known for days after the Nov. 5 election. 

Here are some key races to watch:

The Senate: Montana

Democrats’ hopes in the Senate largely hinge on Montana, where three-term incumbent Jon Tester has trailed Republican Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer, businessman and former Navy Seal. That race is set to break records with about $250 expected to be spent per resident of the sparsely populated state on advertising alone, according to AdImpact data.

Tester, a third-generation farmer, has long relied on his folksy charm and a reputation for delivering resources to his state to overcome its Republican tilt. This year, Democrats hope Tester’s support for abortion rights will help him and other vulnerable candidates hold on.

But former President Donald Trump is expected to win in Montana by double digits, so Tester will need many Montanans to split their ticket between the parties, a practice that has become less common as the electorate has become more polarized. 

Ohio

Even if Tester pulls out a win, Democrats would likely need to win every other tossup race, including Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is trying to defend his seat against car dealer Bernie Moreno. Advertising alone has cost more than $530 million in that race, according to AdImpact.

As in Montana, Trump is expected to win Ohio easily, which could give Moreno a boost despite Brown’s popularity with many White working-class voters who form the former president’s base.

Democrats also need to keep seats in the presidential “Blue Wall” battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — all states where races have tightened — as well as in Arizona and Nevada, where the party’s Senate candidates have held larger leads in polls.

Wild cards

If Tester loses, Democrats would need an upset win somewhere else. That would likely require Colin Allred to defeat Senator Ted Cruz in Texas or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell to beat Senator Rick Scott in Florida. A wild card race in Nebraska, where independent union leader Dan Osborn has been running neck-and-neck with incumbent Republican Deb Fischer, could also scramble the outcome on election night.

Democrats’ best-case scenario is likely a 50-50 Senate, with control of the chamber depending on the outcome of the presidential race, because the vice president breaks ties.

Republicans, however, could win as many as 55 seats if they sweep the tossup races. A larger majority would widen the aperture for GOP tax cuts and other legislation if they control both chambers of Congress and the White House. In 2017, the party’s thin majority led to the defeat of efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act via a thumb down from then-Senator John McCain. 

The GOP has hoped that popular former Governor Larry Hogan would pull off an against-the-grain win in heavily Democratic Maryland, but Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks has had double-digit leads in recent polls despite significant super political action committee spending on Hogan’s behalf, including $10 million from billionaire Ken Griffin.

The House: New York and California

Democrats’ chances are significantly better in the House, where Republicans now hold only a slim majority and must defend many areas won by President Joe Biden in 2020, including in heavily Democratic states like New York and California. The party needs a net gain of just four seats to hand the speaker’s gavel to Hakeem Jeffries of New York, and with it the power over the federal purse and House investigative subpoenas.

In addition to 10 New York and California seats in play, Democrats have targeted Heartland districts in Nebraska and Iowa now held by Republicans, as well as battlegrounds in New Jersey and Arizona.A Des Moines Register poll published Sunday showed Democratic challengers in Iowa leading incumbent Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks by 16 percentage points and incumbent Republican Representative Zach Nunn by 7 points among likely voters. The poll showed a surge for Democrats among women and disproportionate enthusiasm among them for voting in a state that imposed a ban on abortions after about six weeks with limited exceptions.In Louisiana, a newly reconfigured, majority-Black district favors a Democrat succeeding GOP Representative Garret Graves, who decided not to seek reelection. In Alabama, another redrawn district, similarly designed to give Black voters more voting representation, could bring another seat shift toward Democrats.

Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana — who unexpectedly ascended to the job late last year after the tumultuous ouster of his predecessor — is scrambling to save his gavel. He has aggressively stumped and raised money nationwide, including a string of events in key New York districts that helped the GOP flip the House two years ago.

Republicans have sought to capitalize on voter discontent on issues like inflation and immigration, targeting open-race seats of retiring Democrats in Michigan, and incumbents in states including New Mexico and Pennsylvania as well as those in districts won by Trump in 2020, like Jared Golden in Maine and Mary Peltola in Alaska.

The first results on election night could come from Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. New York time, with each party having a pickup opportunity. Republicans hope to take the central Virginia seat being vacated by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor next year, while Democrats try to defeat incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans in a coastal district.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 208 seats as leaning, likely or solidly Republican compared to 205 for the Democrats, with 22 tossup seats; 218 are needed to ensure a majority.

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AICPA wants Congress to change tax bill

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The American Institute of CPAs is asking leaders of the Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee to make changes in the wide-ranging tax and spending legislation that was passed in the House last week and is now in the Senate, especially provisions that have a significant impact on accounting firms and tax professionals.

In a letter Thursday, the AICPA outlined its concerns about changes in the deductibility of state and local taxes pass-through entities such as accounting and law firms that fit the definition of “specified service trades or businesses.” The AICPA urged CPAs to contact lawmakers ahead of passage of the bill in the House and spoke out earlier about concerns to changes to the deductibility of state and local taxes for pass-through entities. 

“While we support portions of the legislation, we do have significant concerns regarding several provisions in the bill, including one which threatens to severely limit the deductibility of state and local tax (SALT) by certain businesses,” wrote AICPA Tax Executive Committee chair Cheri Freeh in the letter. “This outcome is contrary to the intentions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is to strengthen small businesses and enhance small business relief.”

The AICPA urged lawmakers to retain entity-level deductibility of state and local taxes for all pass-through entities, strike the contingency fee provision, allow excess business loss carryforwards to offset business and nonbusiness income, and retain the deductibility of state and local taxes for all pass-through entities.

The proposal goes beyond accounting firms. According to the IRS, “an SSTB is a trade or business involving the performance of services in the fields of health, law, accounting, actuarial science, performing arts, consulting, athletics, financial services, investing and investment management, trading or dealing in certain assets, or any trade or business where the principal asset is the reputation or skill of one or more of its employees or owners.”

The AICPA argued that SSTBs would be unfairly economically disadvantaged simply by existing as a certain type of business and the parity gap among SSTBs and non-SSTBs and C corporations would widen.

Under current tax law (and before the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017), it noted, C corporations could deduct SALT in determining their federal taxable income. Prior to the TCJA, owners of PTEs (and sole proprietorships that itemized deductions) were also allowed to deduct SALT on income earned by the PTE (or sole proprietorship). 

“However, the TCJA placed a limitation on the individual SALT deduction,” Freeh wrote. “In response, 36 states (of the 41 that have a state income tax) enacted or proposed various approaches to mitigate the individual SALT limitation by shifting the SALT liability on PTE income from the owner to the PTE. This approach restored parity among businesses and was approved by the IRS through Notice 2020-75, by allowing PTEs to deduct PTE taxes paid to domestic jurisdictions in computing the entity’s federal non-separately stated income or loss. Under this approved approach, the PTE tax does not count against partners’/owners’ individual federal SALT deduction limit. Rather, the PTE pays the SALT, and the partners/owners fully deduct the amount of their distributive share of the state taxes paid by the PTE for federal income tax purposes.”

The AICPA pointed out that C corporations enjoy a number of advantages, including an unlimited SALT deduction, a 21% corporate tax rate, a lower tax rate on dividends for owners, and the ability for owners to defer income. 

“However, many SSTBs are restricted from organizing as a C corporation, leaving them with no option to escape the harsh results of the SSTB distinction and limiting their SALT deduction,” said the letter. “In addition, non-SSTBs are entitled to an unfettered qualified business income (QBI) deduction under Internal Revenue Code section 199A, while SSTBs are subject to harsh limitations on their ability to claim a QBI deduction.”

The AICPA also believes the bill would add significant complexity and uncertainty for all pass-through entities, which would be required to perform complex calculations and analysis to determine if they are eligible for any SALT deduction. “To determine eligibility for state and local income taxes, non-SSTBs would need to perform a gross receipts calculation,” said the letter. “To determine eligibility for all other state and local taxes, pass-through entities would need to determine eligibility under the substitute payments provision (another complex set of calculations). Our laws should not discourage the formation of critical service-based businesses and, therefore, disincentivize professionals from entering such trades and businesses. Therefore, we urge Congress to allow all business entities, including SSTBs, to deduct state and local taxes paid or accrued in carrying on a trade or business.”

Tax professionals have been hearing about the problem from the Institute’s outreach campaign. 

“The AICPA was making some noise about that provision and encouraging some grassroots lobbying in the industry around that provision, given its impact on accounting firms,” said Jess LeDonne, director of tax technical at the Bonadio Group. “It did survive on the House side. It is still in there, specifically meaning the nonqualifying businesses, including SSTBs. I will wait and see if some of those efforts from industry leaders in the AICPA maybe move the needle on the Senate side.”

Contingency fees

The AICPA also objects to another provision in the bill involving contingency fees affecting the tax profession. It would allow contingency fee arrangements for all tax preparation activities, including those involving the submission of an original tax return. 

“The preparation of an original return on a contingent fee basis could be an incentive to prepare questionable returns, which would result in an open invitation to unscrupulous tax preparers to engage in fraudulent preparation activities that takes advantage of both the U.S. tax system and taxpayers,” said the AICPA. “Unknowing taxpayers would ultimately bear the cost of these fee arrangements, since they will have remitted the fee to the preparer, long before an assessment is made upon the examination of the return.”

The AICPA pointed out that contingent fee arrangements were associated with many of the abuses in the Employee Retention Credit program, in both original and amended return filings.

“Allowing contingent fee arrangements to be used in the preparation of the annual original income tax returns is an open invitation to abuse the tax system and leaves the IRS unable to sufficiently address this problem,” said the letter. “Congress should strike the contingent fee provision from the tax bill. If Congress wants to include the provision on contingency fees, we recommend that Congress provide that where contingent fees are permitted for amended returns and claims for refund, a paid return preparer is required to disclose that the return or claim is prepared under a contingent fee agreement. Disclosure of a contingent fee arrangement deters potential abuse, helps ensure the integrity of the tax preparation process, and ensures compliance with regulatory and ethical standards.”

Business loss carryforwards

The AICPA also called for allowing excess business loss carryforwards to offset business and nonbusiness income. It noted that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act amends Section 461(l)(2) of the Tax Code to provide that any excess business loss carries over as an excess business loss, rather than a net operating loss. 

“This amendment would effectively provide for a permanent disallowance of any business losses unless or until the taxpayer has other business income,” said letter. “For example, a taxpayer that sells a business and recognizes a large ordinary loss in that year would be limited in each carryover year indefinitely, during which time the taxpayer is unlikely to have any additional business income. The bill should be amended to remove this provision and to retain the treatment of excess business loss carryforwards under current law, which is that the excess business loss carries over as a net operating loss (at which point it is no longer subject to section 461(l) in the carryforward year).

AICPA supports provisions

The AICPA added that it supported a number of provisions in the bill, despite those concerns. The provisions it supports and has advocated for in the past include 

• Allow Section 529 plan funds to be used for post-secondary credential expenses;
• Provide tax relief for individuals and businesses affected by natural disasters, albeit not
permanent;
• Make permanent the QBI deduction, increase the QBI deduction percentage, and expand the QBI deduction limit phase-in range;
• Create new Section 174A for expensing of domestic research and experimental expenditures and suspend required capitalization of such expenditures;
• Retain the current increased individual Alternative Minimum Tax exemption amounts;
• Preserve the cash method of accounting for tax purposes;
• Increase the Form 1099-K reporting threshold for third-party payment platforms;
• Make permanent the paid family leave tax credit;
• Make permanent extensions of international tax rates for foreign-derived intangible income, base erosion and anti-abuse tax, and global intangible low-taxed income;
• Exclude from GILTI certain income derived from services performed in the Virgin
Islands;
• Provide greater certainty and clarity via permanent tax provisions, rather than sunset
tax provisions.

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On the move: HHM promotes former intern to partner

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KPMG anoints next management committee; Ryan forms Tariff Task Force; and more news from across the profession.

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Mid-year moves: Why placed-in-service dates matter more than ever for cost segregation planning

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In the world of depreciation planning, one small timing detail continues to fly under the radar — and it’s costing taxpayers serious money.

Most people fixate on what a property costs or how much they can write off. But the placed-in-service date — when the IRS considers a property ready and available for use — plays a crucial role in determining bonus depreciation eligibility for cost segregation studies.

And as bonus depreciation continues to phase out (or possibly bounce back), that timing has never been more important.

Why placed-in-service timing gets overlooked

The IRS defines “placed in service” as the moment a property is ready and available for its intended use.

For rentals, that means:

  • It’s available for move-in, and,
  • It’s listed or actively being shown.

But in practice, this definition gets misapplied. Some real estate owners assume the closing date is enough. Others delay listing the property until after the new year, missing key depreciation opportunities.

And that gap between intent and readiness? That’s where deductions quietly slip away.

Bonus depreciation: The clock is ticking

Under current law, bonus depreciation is tapering fast:

  • 2024: 60%
  • 2025: 40%
  • 2026: 20%
  • 2027: 0%

The difference between a property placed in service on December 31 versus January 2 can translate into tens of thousands in immediate deductions.

And just to make things more interesting — on May 9, the House Ways and Means Committee released a draft bill that would reinstate 100% bonus depreciation retroactive to Jan. 20, 2025. (The bill was passed last week by the House as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill and is now with the Senate.)

The result? Accountants now have to think in two timelines:

  • What the current rules say;
  • What Congress might say a few months from now.

It’s a tricky season to navigate — but also one where proactive advice carries real weight.

Typical scenarios where timing matters

Placed-in-service missteps don’t always show up on a tax return — but they quietly erode what could’ve been better results. Some common examples:

  • End-of-year closings where the property isn’t listed or rent-ready until January.
  • Short-term rentals delayed by renovation punch lists or permitting hang-ups.
  • Commercial buildings waiting on tenant improvements before becoming operational.

Each of these cases may involve a difference of just a few days — but that’s enough to miss a year’s bonus depreciation percentage.

Planning moves for the second half of the year

As Q3 and Q4 approach, here are a few moves worth making:

  • Confirm the service-readiness timeline with clients acquiring property in the second half of the year.
  • Educate on what “in service” really means — closing isn’t enough.
  • Create a checklist for documentation: utilities on, photos of rent-ready condition, listings or lease activity.
  • Track bonus depreciation eligibility relative to current and potential legislative shifts.

For properties acquired late in the year, encourage clients to fast-track final steps. The tax impact of being placed in service by December 31 versus January 2 is larger than most realize.

If the window closes, there’s still value

Even if a property misses bonus depreciation, cost segregation still creates long-term savings — especially for high-income earners.

Partial-year depreciation still applies, and in some cases, Form 3115 can allow for catch-up depreciation in future years. The strategy may shift, but the opportunity doesn’t disappear.

Placed-in-service dates don’t usually show up on investor spreadsheets. But they’re one of the most controllable levers in maximizing tax savings. For CPAs and advisors, helping clients navigate that timing correctly can deliver outsized results.

Because at the end of the day, smart tax planning isn’t just about what you buy — it’s about when you put it to work.

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