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The CPI report Wednesday is expected to show progress on inflation has hit a wall

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A man shops at a Target store in Chicago on November 26, 2024.

Kamil Krzaczynski | AFP | Getty Images

A key economic report coming Wednesday is expected to show that progress has stalled in bringing down the inflation rate, though not so much that the Federal Reserve won’t lower interest rates next week.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, is expected to show a 2.7% 12-month inflation rate for November, which would mark a 0.1 percentage point acceleration from the previous month, according to the Dow Jones consensus.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core inflation is forecast at 3.3%, or unchanged from October. Both measures are projected to show 0.3% monthly increases.

With the Fed targeting annual inflation at 2%, the report will provide more evidence that the high cost of living remains very much a fact of life for U.S. households.

“Looking at these measures, there’s nothing in there that says the inflation dragon has been slain,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas. “Inflation is still here, and it doesn’t show any convincing moves towards 2%.”

Along with the read Wednesday on consumer prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday will release its producer price index, a gauge of wholesale prices that is projected to show a 0.2% monthly gain.

Halting progress, but more cuts

To be sure, inflation has moved down considerably from its CPI cycle peak around 9% in June 2022. However, the cumulative impact of price increases has been a burden to consumers, particularly those at the lower end of the wage scale. Core CPI has been drifting higher since July after showing a steady series of declines.

Still, traders in futures market are placing huge odds that policymakers again will cut their benchmark short-term borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its meeting Dec. 18. Odds of a cut were near 88% Tuesday morning, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.

Inflation remains the biggest concern for our clients, says U.S. Bank’s Eric Freedman

“When the market is locked in like where it is today, the Fed doesn’t want to make a big surprise,” North said. “So unless something has skyrocketed that we haven’t foreseen, I’m pretty sure the Fed is on a lock here.”

The CPI increase for November likely came from a few key areas, according to Goldman Sachs.

Car prices are expected to show a 2% monthly increase, while air fares are seen as 1% higher, the firm’s economists projected in a note. In addition, the nettlesome increase in auto insurance is likely to continue, rising 0.5% in November after posting a 14% increase over the past year, Goldman estimated.

More trouble ahead

While the firm sees “further disinflation in the pipeline over the next year” from easing in the autos and housing rental categories, as well as softening in the labor markets, it also worries that President-elect Donald Trump’s planned tariffs could keep inflation elevated in 2025.

Goldman projects core CPI inflation to soften, but just to 2.7% next year, while the Fed’s target inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, will move to 2.4% on the core reading from its most recent 2.8% level.

With inflation projected to run well above 2% and macro economic growth still running near 3%, this wouldn’t normally be an environment in which the Fed would be cutting. The Fed uses higher interest rates to curb demand which theoretically would force businesses to lower prices.

Markets expect to skip the January meeting then possibly cut again in March. From there, market pricing is for only one or at most two cuts through the rest of 2025.

“Two percent to me doesn’t mean just touching 2% and bouncing along. It means hitting 2% for a continuous, foreseeable future, and none of that is evident in any of those reports,” North said. “You don’t really want to cut in that environment.”

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Economics

Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

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German inflation May 2025

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19 May 2025, Berlin: Apricots are sold at a greengrocer for 7.98 euros per kilogram. Grapes and papaya are also on offer.

Photo by Jens Kalaene/picture alliance via Getty Images

Germany’s annual inflation hit 2.1% in May approaching the European Central Bank’s 2% target but coming in slightly hotter than analyst estimates, preliminary data from statistics office Destatis showed Friday.

The print compares with a 2.2% reading in April and with a Reuters projection of 2%.

The print is harmonized across the euro zone for comparability.

So-called core inflation, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, dipped slightly from April’s 2.8% to 2.9% in May. The closely watched services print meanwhile eased sharply, coming in at 3.4% compared to 3.9% in the previous month.

Energy prices fell markedly for the second month in a row, tumbling by 4.6% in May.

Germany’s consumer price index has been closing in on the European Central Bank’s 2% target over recent months, in a positive signal amid ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook for Europe’s largest economy.

Domestic and global issues have mired expectations for Germany’s financial future.

One the one hand, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could damage economic growth, given Germany’s status as an export-reliant country, though the potential impact of such duties on inflation remains unclear. But frequent policy shifts and developments have been muddying the picture.

On the other hand, Germany’s newly minted government is starting to get to work and has made the economy a top priority. Questions linger about when and to what extent the new Berlin administration’s policy plans might be realized.

The ECB is set to make its next interest rate decision on June 5, with traders last pricing in an over 96% chance of a quarter point interest rate reduction, according to LSEG data. Back in April, the central bank had cut its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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