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The Fed cut its interest rate, but mortgage costs went higher

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Longer-term Treasury yields jumped this week, flying in the face of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, as bond investors didn’t get the assurances they sought.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped as high as 4.145% after briefly falling below 4% this week. The 30-year Treasury yield — closely followed for its connection to home mortgages — traded around 4.76%, up from a low of 4.604% earlier in the week.

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10-year Treasury yield, 1 month

The Fed lowered its benchmark lending rate a quarter percentage point to 4.00%-4.25% at the end of its meeting on Wednesday, prompting investors to send stocks to record highs as they cheered the first rate cut of the year. But bond traders saw the move as an opportunity to “sell the news” after recent bond gains, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners.

Traders of longer-dated bonds “don’t want the Fed to be cutting interest rates,” Boockvar said.

Their selling of long-term bonds drove down the price and drove up the yield. Prices and yields for bonds move in an inverse direction.

Easing monetary policy at a time when inflation is running above the Fed’s 2% target and the economy looks steady can indicate the central bank is “taking the eye off” inflation, Boockvar said, a key risk to longer duration securities. Updated economic projections from the Fed released Wednesday showed policymakers seeing slightly faster inflation next year.

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30-year Treasury yield, 1 month

Investors have been looking for the Fed to shift its emphasis from fighting inflation to boosting the labor market following weak employment data earlier this month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell called Wednesday’s rate cut a “risk management” move, pointing to the softening labor market.

“The bond market, if [longer yields] continue higher, would be sending a message that, ‘We don’t think you should be aggressively cutting interest rates with inflation stuck at 3%,'” Boockvar said.

Additionally, Boockvar said higher yields this week came after longer-dated bond prices had steadily risen in recent months, sending yields lower. It was a similar move as was seen following the Fed’s rate cut in September of last year, he noted.

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10-year Treasury yield, 6 months

But Boockvar said it’s noteworthy that the 10-year note yield is little changed compared with early 2024, despite the Fed cutting rates multiple times since then.

A rise in longer-term yields can have implications for mortgage loans on big-ticket purchases like homes and autos as well as credit card costs. Mortgage rates rose following the Fed rate cut this week after reaching a three-year low ahead of the central bank action.

Homebuilder Lennar on Thursday missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations for the third quarter and gave weak guidance for deliveries in the current quarter. Co-CEO Stuart Miller said in a statement that Miami-based Lennar faced “continued pressures” in today’s housing market and “elevated” interest rates for much of the third quarter.

Looking for ‘terrible news’

While the stock market can move significantly on one rate cut, bond investors are trying to make decisions based on what it sees as the bigger picture, according to Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

“It’s not the journey, it’s the destination,” he said. That can be determined in part by looking at the central bank’s projections for future rate cuts and the perceived neutral rate on the Fed funds rate.

“They’re trying to assess: What’s the end game in this?,” Rupkey said. “The bond market really will react once it is assured that the central bank is going to lower the rates dramatically.”

One Point’s Boockvar said longer-term U.S. yields can also be influenced by their international counterparts, which also tend to be moving higher, making it key to follow overseas economic developments and moves by foreign central banks.

Still, investors should be careful what they wish for when it comes to long-dated yields, Rupkey warned.

Yield declines often signal a recession on the horizon, the economist said. In fact, Rupkey attributed this week’s yield jumps in part to falling unemployment filings, which suggest less risk of an economic downturn anytime soon.

“Don’t rejoice so much about getting bond yields down, because it may mean that it’s impossible for you to find work,” Rupkey said.

“Unfortunately, the bond market only really embraces bad news,” he added. And unfortunately, “not just bad news … terrible news.”

— CNBC’s Fred Imbert and Diana Olick contributed to this report.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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